Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

20170426 future of cities

93 views

Published on

Webinar: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence

"Our struggle for global sustainability will be won or lost in the cities"
Ban Ki-Moon, 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations

Smart cities, sustainable cities, secure cities
For the first time in human history, the majority of the world's population are living in urban areas. The percentage will rise to over 65% by the middle of the century. 90% of growth will happen in Asia and Africa - how we shape it will be integral to the wellbeing of those citizens.
Many people are expert on the future of cities: in this webinar we are examining the global context – how might the world be – what does this mean for cities?
If you are interested in future-proofing your cities programmes, interested in trends facing cities globally over the next decades, or exploring how you use strategic foresight in urban planning to collectively build a resilient future, please join us. You will hear from two experts from Unlocking Foresight and School of International Futures

Slides from Webinar of 26 April 2017 by Unlocking Foresight in association with Atkins Global and the School of International Futures.

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

20170426 future of cities

  1. 1. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Unlocking Foresight 26 April 2017 © 2017 1
  2. 2. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Unlocking Foresight • Strategic Foresight uses the disciplines of anticipatory thinking to develop a range of strategies and plans for the long term view • Unlocking the potential of Strategic Foresight for the benefit of business, government and society, both today and for a better future. • It delivers through services for people in organisations who need to make decisions • Community • The Foresight Hub • Unlocking Foresight Events. © 2017 2 http://unlockingforesight.org info@unlockingforesight.org
  3. 3. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence • Atkins is one of the world’s most respected design, engineering and project management consultancies. We build long-term trusted partnerships to create a world where lives are enriched through the implementation of our ideas. • We are delighted to support the Unlocking Foresight webinar series. • Our Futures programme anticipates the outcomes of megatrends such as climate change, urbanisation and connectivity. It then uses this foresight to plan and design a better future for all. • http://www.atkinsglobal.com/en-GB/group/sectors-and- services/services/future-proofing-cities • http://www.atkinsglobal.com/en-GB/angles/all-angles © 2017 3
  4. 4. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence 4 OUR MISSION: We help policy-makers and business leaders make strategic choices, manage risk and create future- ready organisations OUR VISION: “Our vision is that individuals in organisations and communities across the world use strategic foresight to improve their lives professionally and personally” Access latest expert advice Connect and mobilise Build your capability Gain insight about your future environment 4 © 2017
  5. 5. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Welcome to the Webinar on City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Gill Ringland, CEO of SAMI Consulting and Director, Unlocking Foresight, author, adviser to firms, NGOs and governments on Foresight Cat Tully, Director, School of International Futures, adviser to UN, governments and civil society on Sustainability and Strategic Foresight 5© 2017
  6. 6. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence City Futures in a Time of turbulence How can cities meet the needs of 9 billion people? Gill Ringland © 2017 6
  7. 7. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence City Futures • Lots of focused projects/work/analysis, e.g. • Arup - Future Cities: UK Capabilities For Urban Innovation • Atkins Futures Programme • UK Government Office for Science “Future of Cities” project • EC Horizon 2020 Future Cities initiative across themes • City III (to be published), Joe Ravetz, https://urban3.net/ • etc • Many people are expert on the future of cities – • in this webinar we are asking questions about the global context • how might the world be • what does this mean for cities? © 2017 7
  8. 8. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence City Futures - agenda • Timescales for change • Dealing with uncertainties • scenarios • Sources of turbulence • Break / Thoughts to date • Handover to Cat Tully • City and community • Three applications of scenarios • Implementing Sustainable Development Goals • Discussion / Q&A © 2017 8
  9. 9. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Timescales for change © 2017 9
  10. 10. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence TIME PROMINENCE OF DRIVER NOW LOOKING AHEAD DISTANT FUTURE Horizon 1: Analysis Horizon 3: Imagination Horizon 2: Exploration Three Horizons © 2017 10 2030 2050 Based on work by Andrew Curry & Bill Sharpe
  11. 11. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Assumptions - 2050 © 2017 11
  12. 12. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Assumptions - 2050 • Global population will grow to 9 BN and get older • But its 9 BN + or – 2 BN • Turbulence as the world rebalances to new centres of economic power away from Europe and North America • Technology (info, cogno, bio, nano) will continue to introduce changes • Ecological, energy and environmental limits tested or breached • 70 % of population lives in cities • New middle class uses electricity, travels, eats meat • Sea levels rise © 2017 12
  13. 13. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Dealing with uncertainties © 2017 13
  14. 14. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence “Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.” Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World If I always appear prepared, it is because before entering on an undertaking, I have meditated for long and have foreseen what may occur.” Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821 “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” Voltaire In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless … but planning is indispensable. Planning in the face of Uncertainty © 2017 14
  15. 15. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Forecasts and scenarios © 2017 15 Today Trends Scenarios explore the range of uncertainties Timing ? Forecasts are over-precise
  16. 16. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Scenarios from “In Safe Hands” • Scenarios developed by SAMI to develop longer term views of the future • Since used by Banks and Asset Managers, Dairy Marketing, Supply Chain Managers … samiconsulting.co.uk/5insafehands.pdf © 2017 16
  17. 17. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Four scenarios for 2050 © 2017 17 New forms of governance No change Virtual connectionsGeography matters Affinity GroupsCity Societies Second Hand Globalisation
  18. 18. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Sources of turbulence © 2017 18
  19. 19. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence What sources of turbulence? • What could cause a break in the global system? • We will take a 2 minute break • After the break, Cat Tully will pick up the story of city futures in a time of turbulence © 2017 19
  20. 20. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Any Questions? © 2017 20
  21. 21. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Cities and community • Build resilience: acknowledge and prepare for different alternative futures • Shape and co-create a desired future • Create future-ready organisations and communities through participation © 2017 21
  22. 22. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Assumptions - 2050 © 2017 22
  23. 23. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence City Societies • Society has re-formed by 2050 around city states • Cities as wealth clusters “brands” • Failure of nation states • Democracy, capitalism and western values competing with other organising concepts, UN etc disappear • Cities may co-operate or may be at war • Global commons abandoned • Conflicts in values, fewer implicit norms • Impact on Sustainable Development Goals © 2017 23
  24. 24. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Affinity Groups • Society has re-formed by 2050 around affinity groups • Multiple value systems accommodated • Democracy not seen as universal good • Complex arrangements of nation states and communities of affinity groups • How do international issues get addressed • e.g. regulation • e.g. systemic challenges • e.g Sustainable Development Goals © 2017 24
  25. 25. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence What does this mean for cities? • If turbulence causes breakdown of nation states (“Affinity” or “City Societies”) – or not (“Second hand”)…? • What levers are there in the new political environment? • How do Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) get implemented without nation states? © 2017 25 Ban Ki-Moon: Former UN SG Dimensions City Societies Affinity Groups Second Hand Politics Better local services Global links within ethnic group Assumes a coherent nation state Society Suburb, school friends Family or diaspora Collaborate with other immigrants, householders, etc Use of tech Build community cohesion Trade across distance Based on personal advantage SDGs C40 type initiatives Via trade links within ethnic group UN supporting nation states
  26. 26. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence What does this mean for Nairobi? • City Societies • The languages used are Swahili and English by all ethnic groups • Political links are within suburb to get better services and with other cities with common interests eg defence, sharing technology, trade • Societal links built in local schools • Technology used to create community coherence • SDGs approached via C40 type initiatives with other fast growing mega-cities • Affinity Groups • There are 40 ethnic African groups, plus many people of Arab, Indian, Asian, European descent • Political links strong outside Kenya to other African countries and to Indian, Arab communities • Societal coherence with family group, cautious tolerance of neighbours • Technology used to link to/trade with members of own ethnicity • SDGs approached via trade links within ethnic groups • Second Hand • There are 68 languages spoken in Nairobi, 40 ethnic African groups, many people of Arab, Indian, Asian, European descent • Politics does not explicitly recognise ethnicity • Society based on co-operation with people with similar aims eg new immigrants, established traders • Technology use based on a willingness to pay • SDGs supported by UN, working with Kenya government, derailed by interest groups © 2017 26
  27. 27. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Sustainable Development Goals – a progressive vision for cities © 2017 27 • SDG 11 - ”Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable” • “No one left behind”. • Foundational goals 16 and 17, in particular, challenge us to build “effective, accountable and inclusive institutions” and act in “global partnership, cooperation and sustainability”
  28. 28. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Creating future-prepared communities • Building future-readiness and adaptability • Trends, Complexity, Participation: • India’s urban population is expected to grow to 814 million by 2050, with 40 percent of the population turning 40-plus by 2030 • Will create huge pressure on infrastructure and communities – 10 of the 20 most polluted cities • We can act now to develop sustainable solutions: consider opportunities • Size of cities, narrative of city • Interdependencies • Managing the human and the technology • New initiatives © 2017 28
  29. 29. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence Discussion points • Do you spend enough time preparing or thinking about the future? • What do you think could cause a break in the global system leading to the two scenarios we discussed? • What are the key risks you see to your work from those two scenarios? • What types of responses and capabilities might work to help you prepare for a different future? © 2017 29
  30. 30. Unlocking Foresight Webinar Series 1: City Futures in a Time of Turbulence For more on scenarios, contact info@unlockingforesight.org for further information or visit our web site www.unlockingforesight.org For more on the School of International Futures and to use strategic foresight in SDGs and cities, contact cat@soif.org Thank You © 2017 30

×