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Social Network and Diffusion in Markets as demonstrated by the CAT platform.

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AAMAS, AMEC-TADA, Valencia, Spain.

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Social Network and Diffusion in Markets as demonstrated by the CAT platform.

  1. 1. SocialNetworkingandDiffusioninMarketsas demonstratedbytheCATplatform. MartinChapman Wednesday, 23 November 11
  2. 2. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  3. 3. “Catallactics” Cat`al`lac´tics n. 1. The science of exchanges, a branch of political economy. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  4. 4. “Catallactics” Cat`al`lac´tics n. 1. The science of exchanges, a branch of political economy. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  5. 5. Agent Research Wednesday, 23 November 11
  6. 6. ... [A] new research tournament was launched in 2007 to promote research into automated mechanism design: the Trading Agent Competition Market Design (or CAT) Tournament. The CAT Tournament comprises a series of artificial parallel markets, designed to mirror the competition between global stock markets. These parallel markets, called specialists , are created by entrants to the Tournament, and they compete with one another to attract and retain traders, who are potential buyers and sellers of some abstract commodity. The traders are software agents created and operated by the organisers of the CAT Tournament, in a reversal of the usual Trading Agent Competition structure. Extract taken from E. Robinson, P. McBurney and X. Yao. How specialised are specialists? Generalisation properties of entries from the 2008 and 2009 TAC Market Design Competitions. 2010. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  7. 7. Source: JCAT: The Software Platform for CAT Games, version 1.05 edition, May 1, 2009 JavaCAT. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  8. 8. Trader A Trader B Wednesday, 23 November 11
  9. 9. Trader A Trader B Wednesday, 23 November 11
  10. 10. Trader A Trader B BUY@ 1.234 Wednesday, 23 November 11
  11. 11. Trader A Trader B BUY@ 1.234 Wednesday, 23 November 11
  12. 12. Trader A Trader B BUY@ 1.234 BUY@ 4.321 Wednesday, 23 November 11
  13. 13. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  14. 14. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  15. 15. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  16. 16. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  17. 17. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  18. 18. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  19. 19. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  20. 20. “Networks ofinfluencebetweenmarket traders can significantlyimpactupontheirindividualperformanceandthe performanceofthespecialists theyinteract with.” Wednesday, 23 November 11
  21. 21. “Networks ofinfluencebetweenmarket traders can significantlyimpactupontheirindividualperformanceandthe performanceofthespecialists theyinteract with.” “Assumingthehypothesis is true,thentowhat quantifiable extentandunderwhatconditions donetworks ofinfluence betweenmarket traders impact upontheirindividual performanceandtheperformanceofthespecialists they interactwith?” Wednesday, 23 November 11
  22. 22. Contributions. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  23. 23. Contributions. Server-orientedcommunication;‘dumb’mimicking. GuanGui (c/o. Dr. MillerandDr. Kirley), TheUniversityofMelbourne. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  24. 24. Source: G. Gui. CatSocialNetwork: User Guide, version 1.05 edition, Summer 2010. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  25. 25. Contributions. Server-orientedcommunication;‘dumb’mimicking. GuanGui (c/o. Dr. MillerandDr. Kirley), TheUniversityofMelbourne. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  26. 26. Contributions. Server-orientedcommunication;‘dumb’mimicking. GuanGui (c/o. Dr. MillerandDr. Kirley), TheUniversityofMelbourne. Traderexperiences;theprecursortogivingadvice. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  27. 27. Contributions. Server-orientedcommunication;‘dumb’mimicking. ‘Giving’advice;Networktopologies. GuanGui (c/o. Dr. MillerandDr. Kirley), TheUniversityofMelbourne. Traderexperiences;theprecursortogivingadvice. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  28. 28. Hierarchical Ring Fully Connected Fully Connected Wednesday, 23 November 11
  29. 29. Contributions. Server-orientedcommunication;‘dumb’mimicking. ‘Giving’advice;Networktopologies. GuanGui (c/o. Dr. MillerandDr. Kirley), TheUniversityofMelbourne. Traderexperiences;theprecursortogivingadvice. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  30. 30. Contributions. Server-orientedcommunication;‘dumb’mimicking. ‘Giving’advice;Networktopologies. ReputationSystem;N-armedbandit. GuanGui (c/o. Dr. MillerandDr. Kirley), TheUniversityofMelbourne. Traderexperiences;theprecursortogivingadvice. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  31. 31. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  32. 32. Contributions. Server-orientedcommunication;‘dumb’mimicking. ‘Giving’advice;Networktopologies. ReputationSystem;N-armedbandit. GuanGui (c/o. Dr. MillerandDr. Kirley), TheUniversityofMelbourne. Traderexperiences;theprecursortogivingadvice. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  33. 33. Contributions. Server-orientedcommunication;‘dumb’mimicking. ‘Giving’advice;Networktopologies. ReputationSystem;N-armedbandit. ‘Taking’Advice;Agentmentalities. GuanGui (c/o. Dr. MillerandDr. Kirley), TheUniversityofMelbourne. Traderexperiences;theprecursortogivingadvice. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  34. 34. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  35. 35. SocialTraderGUI. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  36. 36. No social networking strategy A hierarchical network A ring network A small world network A random social networking strategy A fully-connected network (response variable: Average Trader Profit) Normal Credulous ScepticalTrader type / Social Network Experiments. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  37. 37. No social networking strategy 21.9597262766661 A hierarchical network 21.9635335736683 24.1223991979382 22.5708117023643 A ring network 24.4381454210531 31.9911033817235 21.2901718805965 A small world network 28.1729734360446 25.3014017341968 21.2901718805965 A random social networking strategy 31.746038347001 32.6369474322239 26.3634805824215 A fully-connected network 35.7998881478977 27.0993644179867 30.0296602534778 (response variable: Average Trader Profit) Normal Credulous ScepticalTrader type / Social Network Experiments. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  38. 38. TraderProfit. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  39. 39. 0 10 20 30 40 Profits Smallworld Ring Hierarchical Random Fully-conntected No network Normal Credulous Sceptical TraderProfit. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  40. 40. 0 10 20 30 40 Profits Smallworld Ring Hierarchical Random Fully-conntected No network Normal Credulous Sceptical TraderProfit. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  41. 41. T-Value. -4.07726925759703 Confidence. 0.95 Degrees of Freedom. 148 Standard Error of Difference. 1.23318153195583 Mean Difference. -5.02801314927993 Standard Deviation. 6.7385672298091 8.28534631117571 Variance. 45.4082883106571 68.6469634961129 Mean. 21.9597262766661 26.987739425946 YES No Social Network Informed Social StrategyPlatform state / Statistical Measure Wednesday, 23 November 11
  42. 42. Normal Credulous Sceptical TraderMentality. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  43. 43. 0 7.626 15.252 22.878 30.504 Profits Normal Credulous Sceptical TraderMentality. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  44. 44. NetworkStructures. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  45. 45. 0 8.062 16.124 24.186 32.248 Profits Smallworld Ring Hierarchical Random Fully-conntected NetworkStructures. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  46. 46. Clustering&Hubs. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  47. 47. LeaderVolatility. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  48. 48. LeaderVolatility. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  49. 49. LeaderVolatility. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  50. 50. What now? Wednesday, 23 November 11
  51. 51. What now? Fromtraderstospecialists. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  52. 52. What now? Fromtraderstospecialists. Co-niching;double-sorting;marketpositioning. Wednesday, 23 November 11
  53. 53. What now? Fromtraderstospecialists. Co-niching;double-sorting;marketpositioning. Automatedmarketmechanisms;darkpoolsofliquidity; AutomatedTradingSystems(ATS). Wednesday, 23 November 11
  54. 54. What now? Fromtraderstospecialists. Co-niching;double-sorting;marketpositioning. Automatedmarketmechanisms;darkpoolsofliquidity; AutomatedTradingSystems(ATS). Opentosuggestions! Wednesday, 23 November 11
  55. 55. SocialNetworkingandDiffusioninMarketsas demonstratedbytheCATplatform. Formoreinformation| www.martin-chapman.com Wednesday, 23 November 11

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