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AI’s path to the present and the painful transitions along the way

Artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to have a significant impact on work. It will enhance, but also displace, some professions. This historical investigation finds that the AI revolution, like previous technological evolutions, will go through stages. Initial implementations will suffer from failures that will, however, generate employment; but, as the technology improves, the AI revolution is likely to be fully integrated into corporate systems enhance productivity and thus displace workers.

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AI’s path to the present and the painful transitions along the way

  1. 1. Martha Garcia-Murillo Ian MacInnes The impact of AI on employment: A historical account of its evolution
  2. 2. Citation Garcia-Murillo, M., & MacInnes, I. (2019). AI’s path to the present and the painful transitions along the way. Digital Policy, Regulation and Governance. SCHOOL OF INFORMATION STUDIES | SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY 2
  3. 3. AI SLIDEMODEL.COM Two views “moronic buttonpushers, lever-pullers, and dial- watchers” A PROBLEM AI will give humans a ‘blissful’ and ‘truly meaningful’ future A SOLUTION
  4. 4. Objective Impact that artificial intelligence (AI) has on labor through an institutional economics framework
  5. 5. Benefits of AI 1. Personalized learning 2. Infrastructure to optimize the location of electric car stations. 3. Law to determine ownership of collaborative or computer- generated work. 4. Creative industries
  6. 6. Benefits for work 1. Better working conditions 2. Eliminate dangerous and menial jobs 3. Shortened working hours 4. Expanding the variety and amount of new products and services
  7. 7. Institutiona l Economics Ceremonial Customs & Convention s Instrument al Logic & Efficiency
  8. 8. • Instrumental & Ceremonial •Instrumental & Ceremonial •Instrumental•Instrumental Scientific Communi ty Private Sector Government Civil Society
  9. 9. SCHOOL OF INFORMATION STUDIES | SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY 9 The scientific community: Instrumental values
  10. 10. U8z3 DRIVERS Curiosity Imagination Science
  11. 11. 1945 • Alan Turing designed the automatic computing machine. The “Turing Test” was performed to determine if a system was convincingly human- like. 1950 • “There is an intense modern interest in machines that imitate life” Scientific American 2005 • “Employment Test” was performed to determine the capabilities of AI to perform ordinary human jobs Y
  12. 12. Types Weak AI Strong AI AI uJa
  13. 13. SCHOOL OF INFORMATION STUDIES | SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY 13 The private sector: Instrumental values This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-ND
  14. 14. U8z3 DRIVER S Reduce costs Reduce risks Increase competitiven ess
  15. 15. Automobile Industry Detroit Automation Load, unload, transfer between machines Radio and Television Manufacturing Printed circuit board Assembled circuit board Lumber yards Conveyorized automation Boards were segregated by length, width, thickness
  16. 16. Challenges 1. Installations were slow and difficult due to “bugs” 2. Management spent time on countless phone calls with computer manufacturers. 3. Computers required high skills that were not yet available anywhere in the country.
  17. 17. Automobile Sector in Detroit 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 1950 1960 1970 1980 Numberof Employees Year s
  18. 18. PCs Martha Garcia-Murillo Ian MacInnes  The technical possibilities and the ability of the machine to multiply the productivity of labor was of great interest to management  However, local area networks that handled communication among workstations and electronic mail were limited by the small number of text lines  “bewildering array of incompatible hardware and software on the market” (Hunt and Hunt, 1986)
  19. 19. Telephone operators • Telephone operators got replaced by automatic switching Stenographers • Stenographers got replaced by office dictation equipment Raters • Raters got replaced by computers Mail clerks • Mail Clerks got replaced by sorting devices jh Jobs replaced
  20. 20. SCHOOL OF INFORMATION STUDIES | SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY 20 The government: Instrumental and ceremonial
  21. 21. DRIVER S Small governme nt Self- reliance Long held beliefs This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-ND
  22. 22.  Lyndon Johnson Administration to alleviate poverty.  In Detroit, the city created the Community Renewal Program (CRP),  The buzzing world of computers can be used to properly target the program (Thomas, 1997).  The federal government abandoned the project
  23. 23. Government response 1. Significantly reduced workers’ access to benefits under the extended benefits program. 2. Raised the costs of the state’s unemployment insurance by imposing interest payments on loans. 3. Reduced access to benefits from the trade adjustment assistance program. 4. Cut access to unemployment benefits to people who left the military voluntarily. This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
  24. 24. Same challenges SLIDEMODEL.COM Integration problems Installation problems System bugs
  25. 25. Technology and labor requirements T2 Implementation pains. Non functioning systems High labor requirements High inefficiencies T3 Learning and normalization Skills development Integration with operations lower labor requirements T1 Introduction of new computing technology Overpromising solution T4 Efficiency gains Labor reductions
  26. 26. Recommendations rvw EDUCATION Ceremonial HEALTH CARE Instrumental Ceremonial BASIC INCOME Not Ceremonial SOCIAL PROTECTIONS Instrumental Ceremonial
  27. 27. 01 Disparity in values of ceremonial and instrumental will create negative values of AI on work02 Luddite fallacy will hinder potential efforts to design solutions for the negative effects that technological transitions have on people.03 03 Local experiments can generate data and knowledge about promising initiatives and can help identify factors that might facilitate or impede success 04 Conclusions The transition is likely to start with the pains of implementation along with enthusiasm for the technology. It will create jobs and a demand for training and
  28. 28. 28 continuance