Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S.

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Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S.

  1. 1. Get more info on this report!Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S.August 1, 2010U.S. consumers have been caught in an economic freefall over the past two years, butthe crisis appears to be nearing an end. However, the significant changes in attitudesand behaviors brought about by these recessionary pressures persist, with consumerscontinuing to rethink what value means and monitor spending carefully. In thisenvironment, the growing focus on nutrition as a means to wellness—coupled withrenewed interest in eating at home and demand for “comfort food”—has spurredbakeries to provide healthy products that offer high-quality ingredients and a restaurant-quality experience at appealing prices.These combined trends have resulted in steady, if modest, growth in sales of freshbaked goods over the past five years. Retail sales of fresh bread and sweet bakeditems topped $16 billion in 2009, up 4.2% from the previous year. And as bakeries growever more creative in meeting consumer demand for specific types of products and theeconomy improves, this rate of growth is likely to improve. Taking all market trends intoaccount, Packaged Facts projects that the market will grow by 26% between 2009 and2014, to reach $20.1 billion at retail.A completely new report from Packaged Facts, Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. offersa comprehensive look at the overriding trends in the market. The report examinesbaked goods that are prepared fresh at both in-store and stand-alone bakeries, usingpreparation methods such as made-from-scratch, mixes, par-baking (or pre-baking) andthaw-and-heat. It also analyzes trends in the key retail channels through which bakedgoods are sold—both stand-alone bakeries and in-store outlets—including traditionalsupermarkets, supercenters/mass merchandisers, natural food stores, and warehouseclubs. The report also examines activity at the foodservice level, where trends in bakedgoods often start, focusing on high-growth areas including bakery cafés.A special feature is May/June 2010 custom Packaged Facts research on consumerattitudes and purchasing patterns. Specifically tailored for this report, the survey detailsconsumer preferences for baked goods channels and items purchased, in addition toother psychographic indicators. Additional demographic analysis derives from datacompiled by Experian Simmons, New York, NY, including indexing of consumers mostor least likely to often eat different types of breads. The report also breaks out sales by
  2. 2. type of bread or sweet baked good for numerous segments, details market growthdrivers and projects future sales, identifies competitive opportunities includingsustainability appeals, and tracks trends at in-store bakeries.Additional InformationMarket Insights: A Selection From The ReportSupermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail VenuesBaked goods are sold in an ever-broadening range of retail venues, includingmainstream supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters,warehouse clubs, natural food stores, and gourmet/specialty food stores (includingspecialty bakeries). The products are also sold through a host of foodservice channels,including coffee shops, bakeries, delis and quick-service restaurants. Packaged Factsestimates that supermarkets and grocery stores lead the market for fresh baked goods,accounting for 56% of total retail dollar sales in 2009. Supercenters and massmerchandisers account for only 9% of total fresh baked goods sales, but that number islikely to grow in 2010 as the impact of the recession lingers. [Figure 1-1]Warehouse StoresAt warehouse stores, “bigger” is better and “more” is the order of the day. With 22% ofin-store bakery customers shopping at warehouse clubs, according to Packaged Factscustom research, warehouse clubs are a definite force in the in-store bakery market.More and more consumers have flocked to the channel as a result of the recession, andthe popularity of Sam’s Club, Costco and B.J.’s Wholesale Club have growndramatically. With a focus on bulk purchases, the in-store bakeries of these stores areknown for their size and affordable fare. Sam’s Club, for example, can charge half theprice of other in-store and independent bakeries for traditional sheet cakes. Andconsumers looking to serve 100 people at a birthday gathering will not find lower pricesthan those offered by warehouse clubs. Additionally, 24-packs of cookies, doughnutsand other bakery items cover large table displays throughout the bakery.On the other hand, the product selections usually tend...Healthier FareIt comes as no surprise that “good-for-you foods” was among the top five food trends for2010 at the 35th Winter Fancy Food Show in San Francisco, as reported by the websitespecialtyfoods.com (January 19, 2010). The panel of experts who ranked the top foodtrends were merely confirming a long-growing trend toward healthier eating in the U.S.
  3. 3. One of the ways consumers are “eating healthy” is by pursuing foods and beverageswith a higher nutritional value. In Packaged Facts’ May/June 2010 consumer survey,which is based on a national sample of 1,881 U.S. adults, 35% of the individualssurveyed agreed with the statement, “I frequently use nutritionally fortified food andbeverage products,” with 8% indicating strong agreement. Additionally, 51% agreed withthe statement, “I love eating healthy” and 29% agreed that “I eat very healthy.” [Table4-1] Consumer Interest in Health, Convenience and Localism Fuel $16 Billion U.S. Market for Fresh Baked GoodsNew York, July 29, 2010 — Consumer interest in healthy eating, artisan foods and“localism” countered recessionary pressures and helped fuel the fresh baked goodsmarket to grow 4% in 2009 to reach $16 billion, according to Fresh Baked Goods inthe U.S. by market research publisher Packaged Facts.Total fresh baked goods sales experienced slow but steady growth in the 2%-4% rangethroughout the 2005-2009 period, with the exception of 2008 when the market sawalmost 6% growth. Fresh baked goods sales from in-store bakeries including those ofwarehouse clubs also experienced steady growth, in the 2%-5% range, reaching $11billion in 2010 and comprising nearly three-quarters of the total retail market.Packaged Facts projects that the market for fresh bakes goods will exceed $20 billionby 2014.Packaged Facts divides the fresh baked goods market into two major productclassifications: sweet baked goods and breads. The sweet baked goods classificationencompasses cakes, cupcakes, cookies, pies, brownies and other baked dessertproducts. The breads classification encompasses bread (including sliced and unslicedloaves), rolls, pitas and croissants. This report also discusses breakfast baked goods(which overlap both classifications), including doughnuts, muffins, breakfast breads,bagels/bialys and sweet rolls.“Although fresh baked goods are produced and sold in a wide variety of retail channels,certain overriding trends have affected how these products are marketed across mostchannels,” says Don Montuori, publisher of Packaged Facts. “For example, consumerdemand for specific kinds of products—such as those that fill specific dietary needs orbudgetary concerns—has led retailers to adapt in terms of both product offerings andmarketing strategies. In the fresh baked goods market, those bakeries that havemanaged to succeed in this challenging environment have done so by evaluating andquickly responding to these shifts in consumer demand with products that fulfill a varietyof consumer needs and wants.”
  4. 4. A new report from Packaged Facts, Fresh Baked Goods in the U.S. offers acomprehensive look at the overriding trends in the market. The report examines bakedgoods that are prepared fresh at both in-store and stand-alone bakeries, usingpreparation methods such as made-from-scratch, mixes, par-baking (or pre-baking) andthaw-and-heat. It also analyzes trends in the key retail channels through which bakedgoods are sold—both stand-alone bakeries and in-store outlets—including traditionalsupermarkets, supercenters/mass merchandisers, natural food stores, and warehouseclubs. Additionally, the report examines activity at the foodservice level, where trends inbaked goods often start, focusing on high-growth areas including bakery cafés. ForAbout Packaged Facts - Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com,publishes market intelligence on a wide range of consumer market topics, includingconsumer goods and retailing, foods and beverages, demographics, pet products andservices, and financial products. Packaged Facts also offers a full range of customresearch services.Table of ContentsChapter 1: Executive Summary Introduction Scope of Report Report Methodology Market Size and Growth Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues Figure 1-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel, 2009 (percent) Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries Retailing Trends Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries Figure 1-2: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent) Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments Supermarkets Mass Merchandisers Natural Food Stores Warehouse Stores Baking & Marketing Trends Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape Healthier Fare Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option Whole Grains for Health Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options
  5. 5. Sugar-Free Options Still Popular Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam Natural and Organic Products Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local” Affordable Luxuries Artisan and Small-Batch Goods Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods Flavor Adventure Foodservice Trends Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan Appeal Consumer Trends Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum Figure 1-3: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households) Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing LusterChapter 2: Market Trends Introduction Scope of Report Excluded Products Report Methodology Market Size and Growth Sales Continue to Increase Despite Recession Table 2-1: Total U.S. Retail Sales of Fresh Baked Goods, 2005-2009 (in millions of dollars) Table 2-2: In-Store Service Bakery Annual Sales, 2000-2010 (in billions of dollars) Table 2-3: SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods, 2008 vs. 2009 (in millions of dollars) Market Composition Supermarkets and Bakeries Are Dominant Retail Venues Figure 2-1: Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Fresh Baked Goods: By Channel, 2009 (percent) Sweet Baked Goods Category Leads in Market Share Packaged Products Break Out Differently Figure 2-2: Share of In-Store Bakery Department Dollar Sales by Product Classification, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent) Table 2-4: Share of SymphonyIRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Baked Goods by Category and Segment, 2008 vs. 2009 (percent) Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries Table 2-5: Types of Fresh Sweet Baked Goods Purchased at Bakeries, May/June 2010 (percent) Cakes and Cupcakes Figure 2-3: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Cake, 2009 (percent) Retailer Perspective: United Supermarkets
  6. 6. CookiesPiesBaker’s Perspective: Rocky Mountain PiesOther DessertsBreadsFigure 2-4: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Bread, 2009 (percent)Table 2-6: Percentage of Consumers Purchasing Fresh Baked Bread by Type:May/June 2010Artisan BreadsRollsFigure 2-5: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Rolls, 2009 (percent)DoughnutsFigure 2-6: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Doughnuts, 2009(percent)Sweet GoodsFigure 2-7: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Sweet Goods, 2009(percent)MuffinsFigure 2-8: Composition of In-Store Bakery Sales by Type: Muffins, 2009(percent)BagelsMarket OutlookEconomy Slowly ImprovingTable 2-7: Economy-Influenced Spending by U.S. Consumers: Less in Generalvs. Less on Groceries, May/June 2010 (percent)Table 2-8: Agreement with Statement, “Compared to 3 Months Ago, How MuchAre You Doing Any of the Following Right Now?”, May/June 2010 (percent)Fresh Baked Goods: An Affordable LuxuryFigure 2-9: Changes in Consumer Bakery Buying Habits, 2009 (percent)Figure 2-10: Bakery Items Consumers Purchase Less Frequently, 2009 (percent)Eat-At-Home Movement Benefits Fresh Baked Goods MarketEating HealthyTable 2-9: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Dietary Claims,2008 vs. 2010 (percent)Table 2-10: Percentage of In-Store Bakery Operators Reporting Sales Gains onDietary Claims, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent)Heart-Healthy GrainsGluten-Free and Other Allergy ConcernsPortion Control and ConvenienceNatural and Organic“Clean Label” FoodsBaking—NaturallyEnvironmental ConcernsImpact of Healthcare ReformFigure 2-11: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “Which Topic Will Be Most Importantto Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent)
  7. 7. Figure 2-12: Grocery Manufacturer Survey: “What Do You Think Consumers Will Be Looking for in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent) Figure 2-13: Retailer Survey: “Which Topic Will Have the Greatest Impact on Your Business in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent) Figure 2-14: Retailer Survey: “What Initiatives Are Your Company Most Likely to Focus on in 2010?”, December 2009 (percent) Food and Beverage Industry Reacts Food Safety Legislation Baked Goods Sales Through 2014 Table 2-11: Projected U.S. Sales of Baked Goods Through Retail Channels, 2009-2014 (in millions of dollars)Chapter 3: Retail Trends Consumers Frequent In-Store Bakeries Figure 3-1: Fresh Baked Breads: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent) Figure 3-2: Fresh Sweet Baked Goods: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent) Figure 3-3: In-Store Bakery: Consumer Retail Channel Preferences, May/June 2010 (percent) Table 3-1: In-Store Service Bakery Percent of Total Store Sales, 2000-2010 (percent) Table 3-2: Number of In-Store Service Bakeries 2000-2010 Preparation Methods Table 3-3: How In-Store Service Bakeries Prepare Products, 2008 vs. 2010 (percent) Labor Costs, Profits Top Concerns in Bakery Departments Table 3-4: Problems Facing Bakery Departments, 2009 vs. 2010 Supermarkets Illustration 3-1: Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses—Fresh Baked Cakes and Pies Featuring Local Strawberries Illustration 3-2: Fresh Baked Cake and Pie Refrigerated Display Case at Rouses Featuring “Remarkable Buys!” Mass Merchandisers Illustration 3-3: In-Store Bakery Display in Walmart Featuring “Unbeatable Prices” Illustration 3-4: In-Store Bakery Department Self-Serve Pastry Case in Walmart Illustration 3-5: In-Store Bakery Department in Walmart—Location and Banners Natural Food Stores Illustration 3-6: In-Store Bakery Department in Whole Foods—Gourmet Pastry Case Warehouse Stores Illustration 3-7: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Cup Cakes and Sheet Cakes Illustration 3-8: In-Store Bakery Department in Sam’s—Table Displays Wholesale and Retail Bakeries Wholesalers Ramp Up Production
  8. 8. Retail Bakeries Expand Nationwide, Internationally Illustration 3-10: Façade of Newport Beach, CA’s Wonderland Bakery Bakery Perspective: Tom Cat BakeryChapter 4: Baking & Marketing Trends Consumer Spending Habits Alter Marketing Landscape Healthier Fare Table 4-1: “I Frequently Use Nutritionally Fortified Food and Beverage Products,” May/June 2010 (percent) Bite-Sized Treats Offer Low-Guilt Option Illustration 4-1: Display Case of Single-Serve Desserts at Whole Foods Whole Grains for Health Table 4-2: Food Types People Eat to Ensure That Their Diet Is Healthy, 2010 (percent) Ancient Grains Offer Variety and Gluten-Free Options Retailer Perspective: Whole Foods Illustration 4-2: Whole Foods Gluten Free Bakehouse Label Sugar-Free Options Still Popular Olive Oil as Ingredient Fortified Baked Goods Lose Steam Natural and Organic Products Table 4-3: Purchasing of Natural/Organic Food Products by Type, July 2009- March 2010 (percent of U.S. households) Environmentally Friendly Baking and “Going Local” Affordable Luxuries Table 4-4: Consumer Purchasing Habits: Gourmet Products, May/June 2010 (percent) Artisan and Small-Batch Goods Nostalgic Foods/Comfort Foods Whoopie Pies Caramelized Flavors Flavor Adventure Retailer Profile: Sucré Illustration 4-3: Gift Box of Macaroons from New Orleans’ Sucré Sweet Shop Bacon…and Cupcakes?Chapter 5: Foodservice Trends Bakery Cafés Grow in Popularity Table 5-1: Top 20 Largest Foodservice Bakery Operations by Number of Outlets, 2009 (in millions of dollars) Table 5-2: Household Usage Rates for Leading Doughnut and Bakery Chains, 2009/10 (percent and number in millions of U.S. households) Smaller Foodservice Bakery Cafés Find Success Panera Bread Co Table 5-3: Demographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults)
  9. 9. Table 5-4: Psychographic Patterns for Frequent Users of Panera Bread, 2009/10 (percent and index of U.S. adults) [Illustration 5-1]: Donation Bin for Panera’s Nonprofit Store Concept Coffeehouses Increase Profits with Baked Goods Quick-Service Restaurants Add Artisan AppealChapter 6: Consumer Trends Note on Experian Simmons Survey Data Whole Grain Breads Have the Momentum Table 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (percent of U.S. households) Table 6-2: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009 (millions of U.S. households) Figure 6-1: Household Usage Rates by Top Type(s) of Bread Used Most Often, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households) Table 6-3: Household Penetration Rates by Types of Bread Used and Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households) Remix Rather Than Revolution in Bread Preferences Table 6-4: Household Usage Rates By Types of Bread Used, Used Most Often, and Also Used: 2005 vs. 2009 (percent of U.S. households) Whole Grain vs. White Bread Psychographics Table 6-5: Psychographic Patterns by Types of Bread Used Most Often: Whole Grain Breads vs. White Breads, 2009 (percent and index) Psychographics for Individual Types of Bread Table 6-6: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Work at Eating a Well-Balanced Diet,” 2009 (percent and index) Table 6-7: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Try to Include Plenty of Fiber in My Diet,” 2009 (percent and index) Table 6-8: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “Usually Only Snack on Healthy Foods,” 2009 (percent and index) Table 6-9: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “When I Shop for Foods, I Look for Organic/Natural Products,” 2009 (percent and index) Table 6-10: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Try to Eat Gourmet Food Whenever I Can,” 2009 (percent and index) Table 6-11: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “I Look for the Freshest Ingredients When I Cook,” 2009 (percent and index) Table 6-12: Types of Bread Used Most Often by Those Who Agree a Lot with Statement, “Don’t Have Time to Prepare or Eat Healthy Meals,” 2009 (percent and index) Demographics for Individual Types of Bread Table 6-13: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Gender, 2009 (U.S. households)
  10. 10. Table 6-14: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Adult Age Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households) Table 6-15: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Race/Ethnicity, 2009 (U.S. households) Table 6-16: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Geographic Region, 2009 (U.S. households) Table 6-17: Purchasing Indices by Types of Bread Used Most Often: By Household Income Bracket, 2009 (U.S. households) Specialty Ethnic/International Breads Continue to Gain in Popularity Table 6-18: Household Usage Rates for Selected Specialty Breads, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households) Table 6-19: Household Usage Base by Type of Bread: Whole Wheat vs. White, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households) Fresh Bagels Gain at Frozen’s Expense Table 6-20: Household Usage Rates for Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2003-2009 (millions of U.S. households) Fresh vs. Frozen Bagel Psychographics Table 6-21: Psychographic Patterns for Use of Bagels: Fresh vs. Frozen, 2009 (percent and index) Demographics for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels Table 6-22: Purchasing Indices for Fresh vs. Frozen Bagels: By Selected Demographic Traits, 2009 (U.S. households) Packaged Breakfast Pastries Losing Luster Table 6-23: Household Usage Rates for Selected Packaged Breakfast Pastries, 2003-2009 (percent of U.S. households)Available immediately for Online Download athttp://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2594746US: 800.298.5699UK +44.207.256.3920Intl: +1.240.747.3093Fax: 240.747.3004

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