SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>These days, in watching the evening news, many will get these impressions: </li></...
SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE S...
Richard Lindzen,  Professor of Meteorology at M.I.T.,  in an editorial (April 2006) for The Wall St. Journal: &quot;To und...
WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY (July 2006) Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus at Institute for  Advanced Studies, Princeton Unive...
WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY Richard William Gray, hurricane expert and Head  of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado ...
Patrick J. Michaels, professor of Natural Resources,  Virginia Tech, State Climatologist for Virginia:   &quot;In climate ...
Denis G. Rancourt , Professor of Physics and an environmental science researcher at the  University of Ottawa.  “ Global w...
HOPEFULLY, THE PENDULUM IS STARTING TO SWING BACK TOWARDS SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVITY: U.S.  SENATE REPORT:  “Over 400 Prominen...
&quot;We appear to be overplaying this global warming issue,  as global warming is nothing new. It has happened in the pas...
SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE S...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #1:  Dr. LANDSEA CHRIS LANDSEA Leaves IPCC, January 17, 2005   http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/pr...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #1:  Dr. LANDSEA For the upcoming AR4, I was asked several weeks ago by the Observations chapter Le...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #1:  Dr. LANDSEA Differing conclusions and robust debates are certainly crucial to progress in clim...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2:  Dr. REITER PAUL REITER Leaves IPCC, March 31, 2005   http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2:  Dr. REITER All this occurred in a period— roughly from the mid-15th to the early 18th century—...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2:  Dr. REITER IPCC SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT, WORKING GROUP II. CHAPTER 18. HUMAN POPULATION HEALT...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2:  Dr. REITER In summary, the treatment of this issue by the IPCC was ill-informed, biased, and s...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2:  Dr. REITER IPCC THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT, WORKING GROUP II. CHAPTER 18. HUMAN POPULATION HEALTH...
IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2:  Dr. REITER Despite an improved quality of the Third Assessment Report, the dominant message wa...
SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE S...
THE LITTLE ICE AGE  ref: E. Sun  * see below It was only a few hundred years ago that the earth experienced its last ice a...
THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD -  ref: E. Sun op cit The LIA may have had a greater effect on history than its predecessors beca...
THE LITTLE ICE AGE -  ref: E. Sun op cit One researcher looked at the average height of men throughout history as an indic...
<ul><li>Ice Isotopes </li></ul><ul><li>Analyses of stable isotopes in glacial ice provide records of climate changes at hi...
<ul><li>Documentary and Historical Evidence </li></ul><ul><li>Historical observations and documents provide valuable, seas...
<ul><li>Glacier Length and Mass Balance Records </li></ul><ul><li>Records of glacier length can be used to infer temperatu...
CREATING A RELIGION OF SCIENCE: “ The good news is we know what to do.   The good news is, we have everything we need now ...
SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE S...
A SPECIFIC QUESTION:  #1 – Habitability  (over 100 yrs) ref: “ Global Warming: Truth or Dare?”, Denis G. Rancourt, Februar...
SPECIFIC QUESTION:  #2 - COMPUTATIONS P1/2 Ref: Rancourt, op cit
A SPECIFIC QUESTION  #2  P2/2 Ref: http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/ SPECIFIC QUESTION:  #2 - COMPUTATIONS P2/2
SPECIFIC QUESTION: #3 – “REGIONAL” IMPACT <ul><li>-  2007  ACE INDEX </li></ul><ul><li>Ref: FSU COAPS </li></ul>Ref: Ranco...
SPECIFIC QUESTION:  #5  -  ICE DATA  p1/2 Ref: Rancourt, op cit
A SPECIFIC QUESTION: #5 – ICE DATA p2/2 NOTES:  1. NOAA DATA 2. 1 mil sq km apprx = our 3  W. coast states
SPECIFIC QUESTION:  #6A  -  H2O – CO2 Feedback Ref: Rancourt, op cit
SPECIFIC QUESTION:  #6B  - CO2 LAGS TEMP. time NOTE: TEMP UPSWING  PRECEDES CO2 UPSWING Ref: Rancourt, op cit CO2  TEMP
SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE S...
A  Reference:  J. Lean, and D. Rind, 1998, “Climate Forcing by Changing Solar Radiation”,  Journal of Climate, 1, 3069-3094
ON ENDANGERED POLAR BEARS  P1/2 NOTE:  THIS  IS A  TEST 
ON ENDANGERED POLAR BEARS  P2/2 ” Data  Used  For forecast Only 13 % of scientific forecasting procedures were found prope...
A researcher at Russia's  Moscow's Shirshov Institute of Oceanography says global warming has peaked — and the planet is n...
Slow warming doesn’t make for memorable images on television, so activists, journalists and scientists  look to hurricanes...
“ The United States is responsible for more greenhouse gas pollution than South America, Africa, the Middle East, Australi...
SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE S...
<ul><li>MY OWN CONCLUSIONS </li></ul><ul><li>Significant evidence exists that today’s global warming can be viewed as part...
The great philosopher Bertrand Russell from his book “Religion and Science” : SCIENCE CAN NOT JUST REJECT  DISSENT “ Those...
MY OWN CONCLUSIONS:  A WAY FORWARD POLICY RESPONSE SPECTRUM DO NOTHING NOW DO ALL  WE CAN NOW TAKE SELECTIVE ACTION ** ERR...
THE END
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THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING ZEALOTRY FEB 08

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THIS PRESENTATION OFFERS DATA AND VIEWS OF RESPONSIBLE SCIENTISTS WHO ARE HIGHLY SKEPTICAL OF THE HYPE PROMULGATED BY MANY GLOBAL WARMING ZEALOTS.

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THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING ZEALOTRY FEB 08

  1. 1. SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>These days, in watching the evening news, many will get these impressions: </li></ul><ul><li>Global Warming (G.W.) is pervasive and warming our planet at a pretty dangerous rate. If we do nothing, our children and grandchildren will certainly be toast. </li></ul><ul><li>All but a few misfit scientists are in FULL agreement with this prognosis. </li></ul><ul><li>Fortunately this is mostly nonsense ! And that’s the point of this presentation, which tries to show that: </li></ul><ul><li>Many prominent Scientists are very skeptical about over-hyped claims by G.W. zealots. </li></ul><ul><li>Much of the data available is inconclusive on the subject of G.W. due to man-made influences. </li></ul><ul><li>Moreover, Science advances by achieving wide consensus on data trends and then, still keeping an open mind on those who deliver responsible opposing viewpoints. To do otherwise is to make science into a “religion”, which has had adverse consequences since Copernicus and Galileo tried to overturn the then-prevailing view that the Earth was the center of the universe. </li></ul>
  2. 2. SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE SCIENTISTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THE UN’s IPCC POLITICAL DISTORTIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME HISTORICAL DATA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME SPECIFIC QUESTIONS FOR HARDCORE G.W. PROPONENTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME FURTHER ANALYTICAL OBSERVATIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME CONCLUDING THOUGHTS </li></ul></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology at M.I.T., in an editorial (April 2006) for The Wall St. Journal: &quot;To understand the misconceptions perpetuated about climate Science one needs to grasp some of the complex underlying scientific issues. First, let's start where there is agreement. The public, press and policy makers have been repeatedly told that three claims have widespread scientific support: Global temperature has risen about a degree since the late 19th century; levels of CO2 [carbon dioxide] in the atmosphere have increased by about 30 percent over the same period; and CO2 should contribute to future warming.” These claims are true. However, what the public fails to grasp is that the claims neither constitute support for alarm nor establish man's responsibility for the small amount of warming that has occurred. It isn't just that the alarmists are trumpeting model results that we know must be wrong. It is that they are trumpeting catastrophes that couldn't happen, even if the models were right, as justifying costly policies to try to prevent global warming.&quot; WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY – (April 2006)
  4. 4. WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY (July 2006) Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus at Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton University: &quot;Climate change is a real problem, partly caused by Human activities, but its importance has been grossly exaggerated.   &quot;It is far less important than other social problems such as poverty, infectious diseases, deforestation, extinction of species on land and in the sea, not to mention war, nuclear weapons and biological weapons.  &quot;We do not know whether the observed climate changes are on balance good or bad for the health of the biosphere.  And the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide as a fertilizer of plant growth are at least as important as its effects on climate.&quot; WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY –(June 2006)
  5. 5. WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY Richard William Gray, hurricane expert and Head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, in a 2005 interview with Discover magazine: &quot;I'm not disputing that there has been global warming. There was global warming in the ’30s and '40s, and then there was a slight global cooling from the mid-’40s to the early '70s. And there has been warming since the mid-'70s, especially in the last 10 years. But this is natural, due to ocean circulation changes and other factors. It is not human induced. &quot;Nearly all of my colleagues who have been around 40 or 50 years are skeptical about this whole global-warming thing. But no one asks us. If you don't know anything about how the atmosphere functions, you will of course say, 'Look, greenhouse gases are going up, the globe is warming, they must be related.' Well, just because there are two associations, changing with the same sign, doesn't mean that one is causing the other.&quot; WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY (2005)
  6. 6. Patrick J. Michaels, professor of Natural Resources, Virginia Tech, State Climatologist for Virginia: &quot;In climate science, we only have two things: data (the past) and models or hypotheses (the future). The data show that warming since the mid-1970s is consistent with what one would expect from a carbon dioxide-related greenhouse effect. The ensemble behavior of our models is that, once this warming is initiated, it tends to take place at a constant (rather than ever-increasing) rate. This has been so for the last three decades.  &quot;Consequently we know, with considerable confidence, the warming for the policy-foreseeable future, is about 0.85 degrees Celsius, per half-century.  This is near the low end of projections made by the United Nations. However, there is no known suite of technologies that can affect this rate significantly, so the proper policy is to invest in the future rather than to waste money today in a futile attempt to significantly reduce warming.&quot; WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY (June 2006)
  7. 7. Denis G. Rancourt , Professor of Physics and an environmental science researcher at the University of Ottawa. “ Global warming is often presented as the greatest potential threat to humankind and as the greatest environmental and ecological threat on the planet. It is also presented as a problem that could be solved or contained by determined political will if it were present. I argue: (1) that global warming will not become humankind’s greatest threat until the sun has its next hiccup in a billion years or more (in the very unlikely scenario that we are still around), (2) that global warming is presently nowhere near being the planet’s most deadly environmental scourge, and (3) that government action and political will cannot measurably or significantly ameliorate global climate in the present world. I also advance that there are strong societal, institutional, and psychological motivations for having constructed and for continuing to maintain the myth of a global warming dominant threat ” WHAT SOME SCIENTISTS SAY (June 2006)
  8. 8. HOPEFULLY, THE PENDULUM IS STARTING TO SWING BACK TOWARDS SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVITY: U.S. SENATE REPORT: “Over 400 Prominent Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007 ”, December 20, 2007 This report is in the spirit of enlightenment philosopher Denis Diderot who reportedly said, &quot;Skepticism is the first step towards truth.&quot; Ref: http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report 
  9. 9. &quot;We appear to be overplaying this global warming issue, as global warming is nothing new. It has happened in the past, not once but several times, giving rise to glacial-interglacial cycles.&quot; India: One of India's leading geologists, B.P. Radhakrishna, Pres. of the Geological Society of India, in 2007: SCIENTISTS NOW SPEAKING OUT: 2 EXAMPLES of 400 -- ref: op cit U.S.: Ocean researcher Dr. John T. Everett, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) senior manager and UN IPCC lead author and reviewer, who led work on five impact analyses for the IPCC, in 2007: &quot;The oceans and coastal zones have been far warmer and colder than is projected in the present scenarios of climate change.&quot; The one degree F. rise since about 1860, indeed since the year 1000, has brought the global average temperature from 56.5 to 57.5 degrees. This is at the level of noise in this rapidly changing system,&quot; Everett explained.
  10. 10. SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE SCIENTISTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THE UN’s IPCC POLITICAL DISTORTIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME HISTORICAL DATA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME SPECIFIC QUESTIONS FOR HARDCORE G.W. PROPONENTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME FURTHER ANALYTICAL OBSERVATIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME CONCLUDING THOUGHTS </li></ul></ul></ul>
  11. 11. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #1: Dr. LANDSEA CHRIS LANDSEA Leaves IPCC, January 17, 2005 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html Dear colleagues, After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns. I had served both as an Author and a Reviewer for the 2nd Assessment Report in 1995 and the 3rd Assessment Report in 2001, primarily on the topic of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons). My work on hurricanes, and tropical cyclones more generally, has been widely cited by the IPCC.
  12. 12. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #1: Dr. LANDSEA For the upcoming AR4, I was asked several weeks ago by the Observations chapter Lead Author - Dr. Kevin Trenberth - to provide the writeup for Atlantic hurricanes. Shortly after, Dr. Trenberth participated in a press conference organized by scientists at Harvard on the topic &quot;Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity. The result of this media interaction was widespread coverage that directly connected the very busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season as being caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming. Listening to and reading transcripts of this press conference and media interviews, it is apparent that Dr. Trenberth was being accurately quoted not being misrepresented in the media. I found it a bit perplexing. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin. The IPCC assessments in 1995 and 2001 also concluded that there was no global warming signal found in the hurricane record.
  13. 13. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #1: Dr. LANDSEA Differing conclusions and robust debates are certainly crucial to progress in climate science. However, this case is not an honest scientific discussion conducted at a meeting of climate researchers. Instead, a scientist with an important role in the IPCC represented himself as a Lead Author for the IPCC and promulgated, to the media and general public, his own opinion that the busy 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, which is in direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR. I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr. Trenberth's actions and have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4, I have decided to no longer participate in the IPCC AR4. Sincerely, Chris Landsea
  14. 14. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2: Dr. REITER PAUL REITER Leaves IPCC, March 31, 2005 http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we21.htm Memorandum for Record, by Professor Paul Reiter, Professor at the Institut Pasteur in Paris, responsible for a new unit of Insects and Infectious Disease. In Shakespeare's time, William Harvey dissected cadavers of patients in St Thomas's hospital who had died of infection. Harvey was the first to describe the changes in the blood caused by the malaria. At the end of the 17th century, a certain William Talbor was knighted after he cured the King using a concoction of quinine he had developed in the Essex marshes.
  15. 15. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2: Dr. REITER All this occurred in a period— roughly from the mid-15th to the early 18th century—that climatologists term the &quot;Little Ice Age&quot;. Temperatures were highly variable, but generally somewhat lower than in the period since. In winter, the King held parties on the frozen Thames; there are six records of Eskimos landing their kayaks in Scotland. Despite this remarkably cold period, malaria was what we would today call a &quot;serious public health problem&quot; in many parts of the British Isles, and throughout Europe as far north as the Baltic and northern Russia. In fact, the most catastrophic epidemic on record anywhere in the world occurred in the Soviet Union in the 1920s, with a peak incidence of 13 million cases per year, and 600,000 deaths. The key point here is that malaria is not an exclusively tropical disease, and does not need warm temperatures to propagate.
  16. 16. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2: Dr. REITER IPCC SECOND ASSESSMENT REPORT, WORKING GROUP II. CHAPTER 18. HUMAN POPULATION HEALTH Among the contributing authors there was one professional entomologist. Glaring indicators of the lack of specific knowledge of the authors included the statement that &quot; mosquito species that transmit malaria do not usually survive where the mean winter temperature drops below 16-18ºC … &quot;. In truth, many tropical species and many temperate species can survive temperatures of -25ºC.  The authors claimed that climate change was already causing malaria to move to higher altitudes (eg in Rwanda). They quoted information published by non-specialists that had been roundly denounced in the scientific literature. In the years that followed, these claims have repeatedly been made by environmental activists, despite rigorous investigation and overwhelming counter-evidence by some of the world's top malaria specialists.
  17. 17. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2: Dr. REITER In summary, the treatment of this issue by the IPCC was ill-informed, biased, and scientifically unacceptable. The final &quot;Summary for Policymakers stated: &quot; Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life .  .     “ These confident pronouncements, untrammelled by details of the complexity of the subject and the limitations of these models, were widely quoted as ‘ the consensus of 1,500 of the world's top scientists’ (occasionally the number quoted was 2,500)”. This clearly did not apply to the chapter on human health.   The issue of consensus is key to understanding the limitations of IPCC pronouncements. Consensus is the stuff of politics, not of science. Science proceeds by observation, hypothesis and experiment.
  18. 18. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2: Dr. REITER IPCC THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT, WORKING GROUP II. CHAPTER 18. HUMAN POPULATION HEALTH The third assessment report listed more than 65 lead authors, only one of which—a colleague of mine—was an established authority on vector-borne disease. I (Paul Reiter) was invited to serve as contributory author on the health chapter.  My colleague and I repeatedly found ourselves at loggerheads with persons who insisted on making authoritative pronouncements, although they had little or no knowledge of the speciality. After much effort and many fruitless discussions, I resigned from the IPCC project. My resignation was accepted, but it was only after strong insistence that I succeeded in having it removed.
  19. 19. IPCC POLITICS - - CASE #2: Dr. REITER Despite an improved quality of the Third Assessment Report, the dominant message was that climate change will result in a marked increase in vector-borne disease, and that this may already be happening. The IPCC message has been repeated in the publications of other Agencies, often with inaccuracies that originated in the Second Assessment Report. Thus the US EPA persists in making the statement: “Global warming may also increase the risk of some infectious diseases, particularly those diseases that only appear in warm areas”.   Activist organizations, such as the World Wildlife Fund even claim that isolated cases of malaria in the USA and Canada during &quot;particularly warm and humid periods&quot; are compatible with the IPCC projections. PAUL REITER
  20. 20. SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE SCIENTISTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THE UN’s IPCC POLITICAL DISTORTIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME HISTORICAL DATA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME SPECIFIC QUESTIONS FOR HARDCORE G.W. PROPONENTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME FURTHER ANALYTICAL OBSERVATIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME CONCLUDING THOUGHTS </li></ul></ul></ul>
  21. 21. THE LITTLE ICE AGE ref: E. Sun * see below It was only a few hundred years ago that the earth experienced its last ice age. Global temperatures started falling during the 1300s and hit their lowest points in the late 1700s and early 1800s. New Yorkers could walk from Manhattan to Staten Island across a frozen harbor, while Londoners held &quot;Frost Fairs&quot; on a solid Thames River. Glaciers advanced in China, New Zealand, and Peru, and snow covered Ethiopian peaks though the average global temperature dropped only one to two degrees Celsius below what they are today, the cold spell nevertheless drastically affected life at this time. Global temperatures naturally fluctuate slightly from year to year. However, in the past 10,000 years, there have been three relatively long global cold spells. The Little Ice Age (LIA) is the most recent and best documented, especially in Europe. 1 . 5o C 1 . 5o C ref: “Little Ice Age”, Edna Sun, 2/15/05; http://www.pbs.org/saf/1505/features/lia.htm . 5o C / 100 yrs
  22. 22. THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD - ref: E. Sun op cit The LIA may have had a greater effect on history than its predecessors because it immediately followed several centuries of unusually warm temperatures. Between 800 and 1200, Europe basked in a warm spell known as the &quot;Medieval Warm Period&quot; (MWP); temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than they are today. People got used to the longer growing season and the new crops that a warmer climate allowed for. In addition, more areas were suitable for agriculture. Vineyards and farms flourished farther north and at higher elevations than they do today. Calmer sea conditions and reduced pack ice encouraged exploration and allowed the Vikings to sail and settle in new areas such as Iceland and Greenland. Wine production in northern Europe also suffered. By 1310, those vineyards that had expanded further north in England, France and Germany during the warm period went out of production due to the cooling climate. 1 . 5o C 1 . 5o C
  23. 23. THE LITTLE ICE AGE - ref: E. Sun op cit One researcher looked at the average height of men throughout history as an indicator of the overall health of a population. He found that height declined during the period between 1100 and 1600. Northern European men had lost an average 2.5 inches of height by the 1700s. The likely culprit? Disease and agricultural shortages, thanks to the LIA. The hardships resulting from the LIA led to many cases of social unrest. Stressed highlanders raided cattle farms in the lowlands. Riots throughout Europe over the rising price of bread increased in frequency. In 1789, in northern France, a particularly bad harvest brought about riots which led to Marie Antoinette's famous quote &quot;Let them eat cake&quot; and the storming of the Bastille. In the late 14th and 15th centuries, many blamed their climate problems on witches, who were thought to control the weather.
  24. 24. <ul><li>Ice Isotopes </li></ul><ul><li>Analyses of stable isotopes in glacial ice provide records of climate changes at high resolution over long time periods. In the low latitudes, this signal is a combination of temperature and hydrologic variables. In the polar ice sheets, the signal is primarily driven by temperature. </li></ul><ul><li>Isotope records from Tibet and the Andes show that the climate of the 20th century was unusual with respect to the preceding 2,000 years . Current understanding does not allow us to separate the temperature part of this signal rigorously, but all evidence indicates Tibet warmed over the last century. Andean climate changes have patterns over space and time that are not yet understood. </li></ul><ul><li>Greenland had a pronounced period of warmth around A.D. 1000, a cool period from 1600 through 1900, and a modest 20th century warming. Some coastal sites in Antarctica show 20th century warming but interior sites do not . No Antarctic sites show the medieval warming. </li></ul><ul><li>http:// books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id =11676&page=65 </li></ul>Ref: “Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years”, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC), 2006 *
  25. 25. <ul><li>Documentary and Historical Evidence </li></ul><ul><li>Historical observations and documents provide valuable, seasonally specific information about past temperatures and other features of climate But prior to about A.D. 1700 the evidence thins out and often becomes discontinuous. </li></ul><ul><li>Europe and East Asia are the two regions of the world where temperature series more than 200 years long have been successfully developed from documentary evidence in a repeatable and consistent way. This evidence shows that both regions experienced overall Medieval Warming and Little Ice Age cooling, but because of their paucity and sometimes poor data quality, it is very difficult to know from these sources alone if the medieval period was as warm as, or warmer than, the late 20th and early 21st centuries. </li></ul><ul><li>Historical and archeological evidence can reveal how societies have responded to climate variability in the past. These show that societal responses could not have been predicted in advance and that successful adaptations to new climatic conditions depended on the good or bad choices that people made. </li></ul>“ Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years” Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (2006) – op cit
  26. 26. <ul><li>Glacier Length and Mass Balance Records </li></ul><ul><li>Records of glacier length can be used to infer temperature history. These records show global warming of approximately 0.6°C from 1850 to 1990 and cooler conditions for the prior few centuries. </li></ul><ul><li>The majority of glaciers in high mountain ranges outside the polar regions have retreated during the last 150 years, primarily as a consequence of warming. Other evidence from glaciers suggests that the recent warmth is unprecedented on millennial timescales, including melt and retreat of Andean glaciers and disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves. </li></ul><ul><li>Glacier length is also influenced by changes in precipitation, but snowfall on mountain glaciers is currently increasing on average, so the retreat pattern is not due to climatic drying. Glacier length records need to be updated to extend temperature reconstructions from 1990 to the present. </li></ul>“ Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years” Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (2006) – BASC, op cit
  27. 27. CREATING A RELIGION OF SCIENCE: “ The good news is we know what to do. The good news is, we have everything we need now to respond to the challenge of global warming. We have all the technologies we need, more are being developed, and as they become available and become more affordable when produced in scale, they will make it easier to respond. But we should not wait, we cannot wait, we must not wait. ” AL GORE, speech at National Sierra Club Convention, Sept. 9, 2005
  28. 28. SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE SCIENTISTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THE UN’s IPCC POLITICAL DISTORTIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME HISTORICAL DATA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME SPECIFIC QUESTIONS FOR HARDCORE G.W. PROPONENTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME FURTHER ANALYTICAL OBSERVATIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME CONCLUDING THOUGHTS </li></ul></ul></ul>
  29. 29. A SPECIFIC QUESTION: #1 – Habitability (over 100 yrs) ref: “ Global Warming: Truth or Dare?”, Denis G. Rancourt, February, 2007. http://activistteacher.blogspot.com/search/label/global%20warming
  30. 30. SPECIFIC QUESTION: #2 - COMPUTATIONS P1/2 Ref: Rancourt, op cit
  31. 31. A SPECIFIC QUESTION #2 P2/2 Ref: http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/ SPECIFIC QUESTION: #2 - COMPUTATIONS P2/2
  32. 32. SPECIFIC QUESTION: #3 – “REGIONAL” IMPACT <ul><li>- 2007 ACE INDEX </li></ul><ul><li>Ref: FSU COAPS </li></ul>Ref: Rancourt, op cit
  33. 33. SPECIFIC QUESTION: #5 - ICE DATA p1/2 Ref: Rancourt, op cit
  34. 34. A SPECIFIC QUESTION: #5 – ICE DATA p2/2 NOTES: 1. NOAA DATA 2. 1 mil sq km apprx = our 3 W. coast states
  35. 35. SPECIFIC QUESTION: #6A - H2O – CO2 Feedback Ref: Rancourt, op cit
  36. 36. SPECIFIC QUESTION: #6B - CO2 LAGS TEMP. time NOTE: TEMP UPSWING PRECEDES CO2 UPSWING Ref: Rancourt, op cit CO2 TEMP
  37. 37. SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE SCIENTISTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THE UN’s IPCC POLITICAL DISTORTIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME HISTORICAL DATA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME SPECIFIC QUESTIONS FOR HARDCORE G.W. PROPONENTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME FURTHER ANALYTICAL OBSERVATIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME CONCLUDING THOUGHTS </li></ul></ul></ul>
  38. 38. A Reference: J. Lean, and D. Rind, 1998, “Climate Forcing by Changing Solar Radiation”, Journal of Climate, 1, 3069-3094
  39. 39. ON ENDANGERED POLAR BEARS P1/2 NOTE: THIS IS A TEST 
  40. 40. ON ENDANGERED POLAR BEARS P2/2 ” Data Used For forecast Only 13 % of scientific forecasting procedures were found properly applied in the 2 papers audited.
  41. 41. A researcher at Russia's Moscow's Shirshov Institute of Oceanography says global warming has peaked — and the planet is now headed for a cooling period that will last through the end of the century. Oleg Sorokhtin, fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, writes in an article for the Russian news and information agency that a cold spell will set in by 2012. He believes an even colder period will begin as solar activity reaches a minimum in 2041 — and that it will last 50 to 60 years. Sorokhtin says warming and cooling are entirely natural processes — independent of human activity. He says the current warming trend is due to changes in things like solar activity, ocean currents, and salinity fluctuations in Arctic waters. Meanwhile, British weather experts say 2008 will be the coolest year since 2000 because of a drop in sea surface temperatures off the western coast of South America — known as La Nina. THE HEAT IS OFF -- Boston Globe, Jan 6th, 2008
  42. 42. Slow warming doesn’t make for memorable images on television, so activists, journalists and scientists look to hurricanes and starving polar bears instead. The term “availability cascade,” has been used to describe this self-perpetuating process: the more attention a danger gets, the more worried people become, leading to more news coverage and more fear. When the Arctic sea ice last year hit the lowest level ever recorded by satellites, it was big news and heralded as a sign that the whole planet was warming. When the Antarctic sea ice last year reached the highest level ever recorded by satellites, it was pretty much ignored. Global warming has an impact on both polar regions, but they’re also strongly influenced by regional weather patterns and ocean currents. Two studies by NASA and university scientists last year concluded that much of the recent melting of Arctic sea ice was related to a cyclical change in ocean currents and winds. But those studies got relatively little attention — and were certainly no match for the images of struggling polar bears. Ref: “In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm”, NY Times, Jan 1, 2008 , John Tierney
  43. 43. “ The United States is responsible for more greenhouse gas pollution than South America, Africa, the Middle East, Australia, Japan, and Asia—all put together.” (Al Gore’s AIT, pp. 250-251) <ul><li>BUT: The U.S., with less than 5% of global population, produces 28.3%* of global GDP, including: </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural products and research (we feed people) </li></ul><ul><li>Medical advances on every front (we heal people) </li></ul><ul><li>Global investment (we fund people) </li></ul><ul><li>Defense of democracy (we free people) </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacture of autos & planes (we move people) </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer products (we fulfill people) </li></ul><ul><li>Without our energy use (with its </li></ul><ul><li>CO2 emissions) the world would be </li></ul><ul><li>poorer, sicker, hungrier, and </li></ul><ul><li>less free. </li></ul>* 2004 World total = $ 41.2B U.S. total = $ 11.7B World Development Indicators, World Bank
  44. 44. SOME THOUGHTS ON GLOBAL WARMING <ul><li>SOME TOPICS COVERED HERE: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THOUGHTS OF SOME RESPONSIBLE SCIENTISTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>THE UN’s IPCC POLITICAL DISTORTIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME HISTORICAL DATA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME SPECIFIC QUESTIONS FOR HARDCORE G.W. PROPONENTS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME FURTHER ANALYTICAL OBSERVATIONS </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOME CONCLUDING THOUGHTS </li></ul></ul></ul>
  45. 45. <ul><li>MY OWN CONCLUSIONS </li></ul><ul><li>Significant evidence exists that today’s global warming can be viewed as part of a normal centuries-long variability in our climate structure. But all the data is not fully supportive of this. ** “The issue of consensus is key to understanding the limitations of pronouncements by such Groups as the IPCC. Consensus is the stuff of politics, not of science. Science proceeds by observation, hypothesis and experiment. </li></ul><ul><li>In the age of information, popular knowledge of many scientific issues is awash in a tide of misinformation, much of it presented in the &quot;big talk&quot; of professional scientists. Alarmist activists, operating in well-funded advocacy groups, have a lead role in creating this misinformation. Their skill in “scientific fact&quot; sidesteps the complexities of the issues involved. Scientists who challenge these alarmists are rarely given priority by the media, and are often presented as &quot;skeptics&quot;. </li></ul><ul><li>In reality, a genuine concern for mankind and the environment demands the inquiry, accuracy and skepticism that are intrinsic to authentic science. A public that is unaware of this is vulnerable to abuse.” ** </li></ul><ul><li>** paraphrases Dr. Reiter, op cit </li></ul>
  46. 46. The great philosopher Bertrand Russell from his book “Religion and Science” : SCIENCE CAN NOT JUST REJECT DISSENT “ Those to whom intellectual freedom is personally important may be a minority in the community, but among them are the men of most importance to the future. We have seen the importance of Copernicus, Galileo, and Darwin in the history of mankind, and it is not to be supposed that the future will produce no more such men. If they are prevented from doing their work and having their due effect, the human race will stagnate, and a new Dark Age will succeed , as the earlier Dark Age succeeded the brilliant period of antiquity. New truth is often uncomfortable, especially to the holders of power; nevertheless, amid the long record of cruelty and bigotry, it is the most important achievement of our intelligent but wayward species.”
  47. 47. MY OWN CONCLUSIONS: A WAY FORWARD POLICY RESPONSE SPECTRUM DO NOTHING NOW DO ALL WE CAN NOW TAKE SELECTIVE ACTION ** ERR ON SIDE OF CAUTION <ul><li>CONTINUE RELEVANT </li></ul><ul><li>PEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH </li></ul><ul><li>DENOUNCE HYSTERICAL </li></ul><ul><li>ADVOCACY </li></ul>** ACTION SELECTION CRITERIA : ACHIEVE BOTH ENERGY INDEPENDENCE AND GLOBAL WARMING AVOIDANCE
  48. 48. THE END

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