Nonferrous Scrap Metal Market Trends
Nonferrous Division Executive Committee
ISRI 2013 Fall Committee and Board Meetings
S...
YTD Change in NF Metal Prices
Year-to-Date Change in LME Official 3-Mo.
Nonferrous Metal Asking Prices
Dec 31, 2012 - Octo...
Cu Scrap Spreads Have Narrowed...
YTD Change in Domestic Cu Scrap Usage

1H Domestic US
Copper
Consumption:
- 2013: 380,000 mt
- 2012: 369,000 mt
% CHG: 3%
First Half 2013 U.S. Copper Scrap Exports

% Change in Volume
of YTD U.S. Copper
Scrap Exports:
- Total: -7%
- China: -9%
...
YTD 2013 U.S. Copper Scrap Exports in $
First Half 2013 U.S. Aluminum Scrap Exports

% CHG in Volume of
YTD U.S. Aluminum
Scrap Exports:
- Total: -13%
- China:-13...
YTD Change in Domestic Al Scrap Usage

Estimated Metallic Domestic Recovery from Purchased New
and Old Aluminum Scrap, Jan...
Year-to-Date NF Scrap Metal Exports

Commodity

JUL ‘13

JUN ‘13

MAY ‘13

Copper Scrap

92,707

95,643

155,505

Nickel S...
Exchange Rates
US Dollar and Copper Scrap Exports are Negatively Correlated (-.6%)
130,000,000

90.0

120,000,000
85.0
110...
Outlook

Uncertainty remains the recurring theme with unsettled questions on:
• Global supply surpluses
• Domestic scrap i...
World Bank Price Forecasts

Aluminum Copper
$/mt

$/mt

Lead

Nickel

Tin

Zinc

¢/kg

$/mt

¢/kg

¢/kg

2013

1,800.00 7,...
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Nonferrous Scrap Metal Market Trends

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The Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI) Chief Economist Joe Pickard delivered a presentation on the nonferrous scrap metal market during the Fall 2013 board meeting examining macroeconomic indicators as well as the global metals market.

Published in: Investor Relations, Business
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Nonferrous Scrap Metal Market Trends

  1. 1. Nonferrous Scrap Metal Market Trends Nonferrous Division Executive Committee ISRI 2013 Fall Committee and Board Meetings San Francisco, CA October 23, 2013
  2. 2. YTD Change in NF Metal Prices Year-to-Date Change in LME Official 3-Mo. Nonferrous Metal Asking Prices Dec 31, 2012 - October 22, 2013 8.0% 3.0% 0.1% -2.0% -4.9% -7.0% -5.9% -8.3% -9.2% -12.0% -14.1% -17.0% Tin Zinc Lead Copper Aluminum Nickel
  3. 3. Cu Scrap Spreads Have Narrowed...
  4. 4. YTD Change in Domestic Cu Scrap Usage 1H Domestic US Copper Consumption: - 2013: 380,000 mt - 2012: 369,000 mt % CHG: 3%
  5. 5. First Half 2013 U.S. Copper Scrap Exports % Change in Volume of YTD U.S. Copper Scrap Exports: - Total: -7% - China: -9% - RoW: -1%
  6. 6. YTD 2013 U.S. Copper Scrap Exports in $
  7. 7. First Half 2013 U.S. Aluminum Scrap Exports % CHG in Volume of YTD U.S. Aluminum Scrap Exports: - Total: -13% - China:-13% - RoW: -13%
  8. 8. YTD Change in Domestic Al Scrap Usage Estimated Metallic Domestic Recovery from Purchased New and Old Aluminum Scrap, Jan-Jul 2012 vs Jan-Jul 2013 (thousand metrics tons) Source: U.S. Geological Survey 1200 1110 1120 1000 843 849 800 600 400 200 48 60 4 4 0 Secondary Smelters Independent Mill Fabricators Jan-Jul 2012 Foundries Jan-Jul 2013 Other Consumers
  9. 9. Year-to-Date NF Scrap Metal Exports Commodity JUL ‘13 JUN ‘13 MAY ‘13 Copper Scrap 92,707 95,643 155,505 Nickel Scrap 96,531 JAN-JUL '13 651,892 JAN-JUL '12 697,575 % CHG -7% 152,963 157,177 1,219,064 1,063,822 -13% 2,496 2,207 2,162 14,531 15,908 -9% Lead Scrap 1,742 3,707 3,101 20,010 15,004 33% Zinc Scrap 5,302 7,158 7,072 47,153 51,013 -8% Aluminum Scrap
  10. 10. Exchange Rates US Dollar and Copper Scrap Exports are Negatively Correlated (-.6%) 130,000,000 90.0 120,000,000 85.0 110,000,000 100,000,000 80.0 90,000,000 75.0 80,000,000 70,000,000 70.0 60,000,000 65.0 50,000,000 60.0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 40,000,000 Cu Scrap Exports (kg) US Dollar Index
  11. 11. Outlook Uncertainty remains the recurring theme with unsettled questions on: • Global supply surpluses • Domestic scrap inventories • U.S. Budget, debt ceiling, regulatory challenges • LME rules changes and investment demand • Timing of Fed tapering and exchange rate volatility • Last but not least, Chinese demand and Euro zone recovery
  12. 12. World Bank Price Forecasts Aluminum Copper $/mt $/mt Lead Nickel Tin Zinc ¢/kg $/mt ¢/kg ¢/kg 2013 1,800.00 7,100.00 210 14,000 2,200.00 190 2014 1,850.00 7,050.00 212 15,000 2,220.00 215 2015 1,900.00 7,000.00 215 16,000 2,250.00 220 Updated October 2013.

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