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Developer Report (Published: August 2019)

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We fingerprinted 27,000+ code repositories and 22 million code commits to create this H1 2019 Developer Report.

Developers are a leading indicator for where value will be created and accrue in crypto.

This report focuses on developer activity from June 2018 to June 2019.

Published by Electric Capital.
electriccapital.com

Published in: Data & Analytics
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Developer Report (Published: August 2019)

  1. 1. Developer Report January - June 2019
  2. 2. The Developer Report is built on proprietary data from Electric Capital Electric Capital is a digital asset management firm. We invest in programmable money and blockchain applications based on innovative technology, market adoption, and real use cases. We compile code, do security audits, run nodes to programmatically inspect the blockchain, have market intelligence based on proprietary software, and more. electriccapital.com Follow us on Twitter: @ElectricCapital Data Pipeline Curtis Spencer Twitter: @jubos Contributor Avichal Garg Twitter: @avichal Contributor Ken Deeter Twitter: @puntium 2 Author Maria Shen Twitter: @MariaShen
  3. 3. Why analyze developer activity? 3 1. Crypto networks are new open platforms on which a new generation of applications will be built. 2. A clear, early signal for an emerging platform is engagement from developers. Developers build the applications that deliver value to end users and customers, and set off a virtuous cycle attracting more developers. 3. The base layers of the crypto stack are uniquely open source, allowing us to analyze and understand developer engagement in an unprecedented way. 4. Electric Capital tracks developer adoption as a leading indicator of where future value will be created and captured.
  4. 4. Electric Capital indexed 27,000+ code repositories ...analyzed 22M commits to find original code authors ...across 3,400+ crypto ecosystems. The Developer Reports compile findings from our ongoing research. 4
  5. 5. Help map the crypto ecosystem We’ve opened our ecosystem map on GitHub so that anyone can contribute: 1. Submit a pull request in https://github.com/electric-capital/crypto-ecosystems 2. or email info@electriccapital.com We will use this data for our reports going forward. For more details on our methodology, consult our appendix. 5
  6. 6. Executive Summary 1. Despite market downturns in 2018, Full Time developers increased 13% year-over-year in June 2019 and are consolidating around high network value projects. 2. Code commit volume is consistent but total monthly active developers are down 10% Y/Y. 3. 80% of developer loss came from One Time per month and Part Time developers. 4. The biggest developer drop-off came from projects outside of the Top 100 by network value. 5. Smart Contracts, Infrastructure, and DeFi ecosystems continue to gain Full Time developers. 6. Overall crypto ecosystems are approaching the size of well known open source projects such as Apache, but still has plenty of space to grow. 6
  7. 7. Part 0 Overview 7
  8. 8. During Crypto Winter, code commits across 27k repositories remained flat 8
  9. 9. But at first glance, open source crypto developers appear to be down... 9 June 2018: 7,671 monthly developers Today: 6,842 monthly developers
  10. 10. Why does developer count appear to be down? Let’s segment by: 1. Frequency of Contribution 2. Top 100 Projects by Network Value 3. Project Category 10
  11. 11. Part 1 Type of Developer (Full Time, Part Time, One Time) 11
  12. 12. Crypto ecosystems lost 800+ developers in the last year... 12
  13. 13. How frequently do these developers contribute? 13
  14. 14. Let’s bucket developers into One Time per month, Part Time, and Full Time 14 Part Time Full Time 1x/month
  15. 15. Most developers contribute infrequently and 29% contribute 1x/month 15 Developers contributing only 1 day January: 2,350 March: 2,364 June: 1,973
  16. 16. Almost 50% of developer loss came from these 1x/month contributors 16 Developers who contributed 1 day fell by 377 compared to January 2019
  17. 17. Almost 80% of Developer loss came from Part Time or 1x/month Contributors 17 77% of developer loss from devs active fewer than 10 days
  18. 18. Full Time developers stayed constant through H1 2019 18 Full Time developers stayed relatively constant through 2019 Jan 2019: 2,444 Jun 2019: 2,455
  19. 19. Zooming out to look at historical trends... 19
  20. 20. Full-Time developers increased YoY while infrequent contributors left 20 Full-Time Developers increased by 13% from June 2018 to June 2019 Part-Time Developers fell 18% One-Time Developers fell 30%
  21. 21. Since Full Time devs contribute the most, overall commit volume is consistent 21
  22. 22. Is this consistent across top coins and projects? 22
  23. 23. Part 2 Top 100 Ecosystems by Network Value 23
  24. 24. Top 100 projects lost 4% of their devs vs. Outside Top 100 lost 19% of devs 24 Outside of Top 100 lost 19% of developers from June 2018 to June 2019 Top 100 projects lost 4% of developers
  25. 25. In absolute numbers, Top 100 lost 139 devs vs. Outside Top 100 lost 824 devs 25 Outside Top 100 June, 2018: 4,323 June, 2019: 3,499 “Top 100” ecosystems June, 2018: 3,675 June, 2019: 3,536
  26. 26. A return to normal as ICO projects die? Top 100 have 50% of all developers 26 Number of Top 100 developers have historically been equal to or more than the number of developers outside of Top 100 ICO boom drove developers to long tail projects. Many have stopped committing code.
  27. 27. Looking at just Bitcoin and Ethereum Ecosystems 27
  28. 28. Bitcoin ecosystem is consistently healthy: 100+ developers/month since 2014! 28 Jan 2014: 106 Jan 2016: 168 Jan 2018: 339 Today: 314
  29. 29. Bitcoin has almost the same Active Developer count in 2019 vs 2018 29 June 2018: 318 June 2019: 314
  30. 30. 1.2k+ developers are working in the Ethereum ecosystem 30 Monthly Ethereum developers in June 2019: 1,243
  31. 31. Ethereum ecosystem gained 79 developers vs. June 2018 31 June 2019: 1,243 June 2018: 1,164
  32. 32. All: 6,842 Eth: 1,243 18% of all open source crypto developers work in the Ethereum ecosystem 32
  33. 33. B B B B B B Ethereum ecosystem has ~4x the developers of the next biggest ecosystem 33 Monthly average Ethereum developers: 1,156 Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem
  34. 34. Most ecosystems have < 250 developers 34 Most Top 100 ecosystems Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem B B B B B B
  35. 35. Removing Ethereum and Bitcoin as outliers, and switching graphs to log scale... 35
  36. 36. EOS stands out with a high number of ecosystem developers 36 EOS: 224 B B B B B Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Closed source ecosystems are not shown.
  37. 37. Grin has the most developers for ecosystems under $50M 37 Grin: 33 average monthly developers Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem B B B B B Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Closed source ecosystems are not shown.
  38. 38. B B B B B Several ecosystems stand out with 40+ developers 38 EOS, Cardano, Monero, Stellar, Steem, IOTA, Tezos, Basic Attention Token, Status, Waves, Tron, Cosmos, Maker, NEO, Aeternity, XRP have 40+ developers B B B B B Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Closed source ecosystems are not shown.
  39. 39. Looking at on-chain transaction count... 39
  40. 40. EOS: 224 monthly average developers in H1 2019 EOS has 224 developers supporting ~5M average daily transaction count Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem 40 Transaction Data Source: CoinMetrics Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Not all ecosystems have openly available transaction data or ecosystem may be closed-source.
  41. 41. Tron: 67 monthly average developers in H1 2019 Tron has 67 developers supporting 2M daily transactions Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem 41 Transaction Data Source: CoinMetrics Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Not all ecosystems have openly available transaction data or ecosystem may be closed-source.
  42. 42. XRP: 51 Tron: 67 EOS: 224 EOS, Tron, XRP have 100k+ daily transactions and 40+ developers 42 Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem Transaction Data Source: CoinMetrics Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Not all ecosystems have openly available transaction data or ecosystem may be closed-source.
  43. 43. Switching from transaction count to on-chain transaction volume... 43
  44. 44. Bitcoin has 310 developers supporting ~$5B USD daily transaction volume Bitcoin: 310 monthly average developers in H1 2019 B B B B B B 44 Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem Transaction Data Source: CoinMetrics Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Not all ecosystems have openly available transaction data or ecosystem may be closed-source.
  45. 45. Bitcoin Cash has 38 developers supporting ~$1B daily transaction volume Bitcoin Cash: 38 average monthly developers 45 Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem B B B B B B Transaction Data Source: CoinMetrics Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Not all ecosystems have openly available transaction data or ecosystem may be closed-source.
  46. 46. Only three ecosystems > $1B daily transaction volumes Most ecosystems have <$1B USD daily transaction volumes over H1 2019 B B B B B B 46 Top 100 ecosystem Top 10 ecosystem Transaction Data Source: CoinMetrics Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Not all ecosystems have openly available transaction data or ecosystem may be closed-source.
  47. 47. Removing Ethereum and Bitcoin as outliers, and switching to log scale... 47
  48. 48. 7 open source ecosystems have > $100M daily transaction volume EOS, Cardano, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Dogecoin, Litecoin have >$100M daily transaction volume B B 48 Top 100 ecosystem Transaction Data Source: CoinMetrics Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Not all ecosystems have openly available transaction data or ecosystem may be closed-source.
  49. 49. Stellar, Tron, NEO, Maker, BAT, Tezos, Aeternity, Waves, and Status have 40+ devs, but under $100M daily transaction volume Stellar, Tron, BAT, Waves, Status, Aeternity have 40+ devs and < $100M volume 49 Top 100 ecosystem B B Transaction Data Source: CoinMetrics Note: Not all projects in Top 100 are shown. Not all ecosystems have openly available transaction data or ecosystem may be closed-source.
  50. 50. How did ecosystems change over the last year? To smooth things out, let’s look at average developers... 50
  51. 51. Average monthly developers in H1 2019 fell 5% vs H2 2018 51 Jun - Dec 2018: 7,836 average monthly developers Jan - Jun 2019: 7,407 average monthly developers
  52. 52. 52 19 of Top 100 ecosystems averaged 40+ monthly developers
  53. 53. Majority of 40+ dev ecosystems lost developers 53
  54. 54. In percentage terms: Maker gained the most, Bitcoin Cash lost the most 54
  55. 55. In raw numbers: Maker gained the most developers, EOS lost the most 55
  56. 56. Slicing Maker, Bitcoin Cash, and EOS by Full Time, Part Time, and One Time developers... 56
  57. 57. Maker grew from 9 to 23 Full Time developers Maker Full Time developers more than doubled since June 2018 57
  58. 58. EOS fluctuated between 60 to 90 Full Time developers 58
  59. 59. Bitcoin Cash Full Time developers dropped from 24 to 11 in January 2019 59
  60. 60. One Time Developers Full Time Developers Though overall devs are flat, Ethereum gained 34% in Full Time devs v Jun 2019 60
  61. 61. Many projects gained Full Time developers (some despite overall developer loss) Cardano 61 Bitcoin Monero Basic Attention Token WavesStellar Maker IOTA
  62. 62. Looking at days when a developer committed code... 62
  63. 63. Each row (y-axis) is a dev. Each day (x-axis) that dev committed code has a dot 63 Ethereum Bitcoin EOS Cardano Tron Status Cosmos BAT Steem Monero Stellar Waves Tezos Aeternity Maker IOTA XRP NEO
  64. 64. Ethereum has the highest number of Full Time developers 64 Ethereum Bitcoin EOS Cardano Tron Status Cosmos BAT Steem Monero Stellar Waves Tezos Aeternity Maker IOTA XRP NEO
  65. 65. Ethereum and Bitcoin have many Full Time developers committing consistently 65 Ethereum Bitcoin EOS Cardano Tron Status Cosmos BAT Steem Monero Stellar Waves Tezos Aeternity Maker IOTA XRP NEO
  66. 66. Many ecosystems have a dedicated core group of frequently committing devs 66 Ethereum Bitcoin EOS Cardano Tron Status Cosmos BAT Steem Monero Stellar Waves Tezos Aeternity Maker IOTA XRP NEO
  67. 67. Many projects also have long term but infrequent committers 67 Ethereum Bitcoin EOS Cardano Tron Status Cosmos BAT Steem Monero Stellar Waves Tezos Aeternity Maker IOTA XRP NEO
  68. 68. Some projects have many Part Time developers 68 Ethereum Bitcoin EOS Cardano Tron Status Cosmos BAT Steem Monero Stellar Waves Tezos Aeternity Maker IOTA XRP NEO
  69. 69. Most projects have One Time contributors 69 Ethereum Bitcoin EOS Cardano Tron Status Cosmos BAT Steem Monero Stellar Waves Tezos Aeternity Maker IOTA XRP NEO
  70. 70. Ethereum, Bitcoin, EOS have new highly active, Part Time developers joining 70 Ethereum Bitcoin EOS New Part-Time developers joined as contributors this year
  71. 71. Test Nets and Launches drive engagement... 71
  72. 72. Tron token migration Sun Network Testnet Tron Monero Grin Cardano Shelley testnet release June 22, 2019 CosmosAeternity Beryllium Bullet release Network upgrade Token Migration Phase 0 Grin Launch Game of Stakes started 72 Game of Stakes ends Test Nets and Launches drive engagement...
  73. 73. Are the trends consistent across all categories, even outside top 100? 73
  74. 74. Part 3 By Category 74
  75. 75. Since 2010, developers worked on 27k repos across 3.4k projects 75
  76. 76. Let’s just consider the last year... 76
  77. 77. 6.5k developers contributed to 15.3k repos across 1,140 ecosystems... 77
  78. 78. Of 1,140 ecosystems, 748 had at least 1 sustained developer... 748 ecosystems had 1 “sustained” developer, or 1 consistent developer for 6+ months 78
  79. 79. Active Ecosystems: 583 have 2+ developers for at least 6 months 161 (21.5%) ecosystems had 1 sustained developer 587 (78.5%) had 2+ sustained developers. We call these “Active Ecosystems” 79
  80. 80. Focusing only on these Active Ecosystems... 80
  81. 81. Slicing Active Ecosystems by category: Smart Contracts, Money, dApps, Infrastructure, & Defi 81 Smart Contract: e.g. Ethereum, EOS, Tron Application: e.g. Bittorrent, Basic Attention Token, Decentraland, Bread Infrastructure: e.g. Cosmos, Chainlink, Arweave, ZepplinOS, Siacoin Money: e.g. Bitcoin, Monero, Stellar, XRP, Nano Defi: e.g. Maker, 0x, dYdX
  82. 82. Smart Contracts and Applications are losing developers 82 Smart Contracts and Application developers declining the most by raw numbers
  83. 83. Smart Contract Platforms still account for ~40% of all developers 83
  84. 84. Full Time Defi developers increased since 2019 Defi Beginning of 2019 June 2019 84
  85. 85. Full Time Infrastructure developers are increasing Infrastructure 85
  86. 86. Full Time, Part Time, and One Time developers are decreasing for other dApps Applications 86
  87. 87. All developer types are decreasing in Money ecosystems... Money 87
  88. 88. ...while in Smart Contracts platform devs are down, full time devs are increasing Smart Contract 88
  89. 89. Bonus Section Developer Growth in Context 89
  90. 90. 90 As Network Value increases, Developer growth rises at a faster rate (2nd derivative) Growth multiple of 1 = No growth YoY When Network Value accelerates, Developer Growth accelerates a few months later
  91. 91. 91 When Network Value shrinks, Full Time dev growth continues, just more slowly Growth multiple of 1 = No growth YoY Full Time developer growth continues, but at a slower rate Part Timers and One Timers decrease Y/Y during bear markets
  92. 92. How do we put crypto and blockchain developers in context of other ecosystems? 92
  93. 93. 93 Crypto and Blockchain compared to other large Open Source ecosystems 1243 monthly active Ethereum developers as of June 2019 1615 contributors to Apache projects in Q1 2019 [1] 1900 Linux Kernel developers[2] 6842 total monthly active crypto developers as of June 2019 … still plenty of room to grow ... 4M+ NodeJS package manager users[3] 6M+ developers target Android [4] 1 - report, 2 - estimated, 3 - 2017 report, 4 - report
  94. 94. If the next 4 years of developer growth look like the last 4 years... 94 6.8K Today 70K in March 2023
  95. 95. Executive Summary 1. Despite market downturns in 2018, Full Time developers increased 13% year-over-year in June 2019 and are consolidating around high network value projects. 2. Code commit volume is consistent but total monthly active developers are down 10% Y/Y. 3. 80% of developer loss came from One Time per month and Part Time developers. 4. The biggest developer drop-off came from projects outside of the Top 100 by network value. 5. Smart Contracts, Infrastructure, and DeFi ecosystems continue to gain Full Time developers 6. Overall crypto ecosystems are approaching the size of well known open source projects such as Apache, but still has plenty of space to grow. 95
  96. 96. Danny Aranda @daranda Alex Bosworth @alexbosworth Dan Elitzer @delitzer Kincaid O'Neil @kincaidoneil Marc-Antoine Ross @marcantoineross Yin Wu @yinyinwu Thank you to everyone who gave us feedback on early drafts! Robert Bent @robbiebent1 Thiago Canellas @eosriobrazil Steve Lee @moneyball Kevin Owocki @kevinowocki Riccardo Spagni @fluffypony Linda Xie @ljxie Spencer Bogart @CremeDeLaCrypto Jill Carlson @jillruthcarlson Scott Moore @notscottmoore Justin Rice @StellarOrg Elizabeth Stark @starkness 96
  97. 97. Appendix / Methodology 97
  98. 98. Protocol Developers Ecosystem Developers 1. Ecosystem Developers are working on dapps, documentation, tooling, wallets, and anything else furthering the project. 2. Protocol Developers include developers working only on the core protocol. We’ve expanded the Developer Report to include all types of crypto developers 98
  99. 99. For example, how do we break down the Bitcoin ecosystem? Bitcoin 1. Ecosystem: ○ light clients like Electrum... ○ layer 2 solutions like Lightning... ○ libraries like libbitcoin... ○ Bitcoin documentation like Mastering Bitcoin... ○ apps that are built with Bitcoin… ○ and anything that advances Bitcoin. 2. Protocol: ○ Bitcoin Core ○ btcsuite/btcd ○ ...and more. Protocol Developers Ecosystem Developers 99
  100. 100. Ecosystems can live inside other ecosystems MakerDao 0. Parent Ecosystem: Ethereum 1. Maker Ecosystem: ○ xDai ○ awesome-makerdao ○ Market-maker-keeper ○ daipay ○ ...and more. 2. Maker Protocol ○ makerdao/sai ○ ...and more. Protocol Developers Ecosystem Developers Parent Ecosystem 100
  101. 101. Commit Counting Methodology: Not all code commits are created equal. 101 1. Forks: Only new code counts towards developer activity. We omit code and developer activity from merging changes from the upstream codebase. 2. Fingerprinting: Fingerprinting is a technique used to identify commits originating from upstream projects. We look at the files and lines changed, the commit message, committer, author and associated dates. 3. Commits from Integrating Open Source Libraries: Integrating common libraries does not count toward code activity. 4. Branches: We look at commits from all branches (master/development, etc.) and tags. We look beyond Github's default view, which can be misrepresentative. 5. Limitations: We only look at open source repositories. There are many teams that are not yet open source.
  102. 102. How are developers counted? 1. Developers: We count original code authors as developers. This means that a developer who merges a pull request is not counted as an active developer on the project, but the original authors of the commits are. 2. Full Time developer: contributed code 10+ days out of a month 3. Part Time developer: contributed code 2-9 days out of a month 4. One Time developer: contributed code 1 day out of a month 5. 3-month rolling window: We look at the last 3 months of a developer’s activity to determine their category. 102
  103. 103. 103 1. We consider open source repositories only. There are many more developers working on important closed source projects or ecosystems. Some teams will open source their code later. 2. This methodology undercounts developers in other roles besides original code contribution such as backporting, testing, release engineering or code review/feedback that aren’t reflected in git repositories. 3. It will require more than just software engineers to build product and reach mainstream adoption. 4. Not all commits are created equal. Some may be routine, mechanical changes, whereas others represent hours of accumulated research and analysis. Despite these caveats, we consider the analysis in this report directionally accurate and indicative of the overall health of the ecosystem. We are always looking to improve so please share feedback with us at info@electriccapital.com Caveats
  104. 104. Disclaimer The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this report constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Electric Capital or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. 104

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