Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

RIWC_PARA_A041 Impact of Early Retirement in Germany

100 views

Published on

A041 Impact of Early Retirement in Germany

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

RIWC_PARA_A041 Impact of Early Retirement in Germany

  1. 1. Consequences of demographic change on rehabilitation in German Pension Insurance Uwe Egner, Stephan Mäder, Nadine Vorsatz German Federal Pension Insurance (Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund) 23rd Rehabilitation International World Congress 25th of October – 27nd of October 2016, Edinburgh, Scotland 1
  2. 2. Agenda 1. German Federal Pension Insurance (GFPI) – the institution 2. Background 1. Population development 2. Routine data from GFPI 3. Study: WOMR-Management 1. Results 4. Conclusions 2
  3. 3. German Federal Pension Insurance - the institution Public service provider in the field of social security More than 18,000,000 insured people Tasks and benefits: • Rehabilitation (medical and vocational) • Pension payments (retirement pensions and pensions due to reduced earning capacity) Funded by contributions of employers and employees Responsible for insured people all over Germany 3
  4. 4. Key figures medical rehabilitation Source: ISRV claims for rehabilitation Tab.: 001.1, INFOSYS § 3 RSVwV A+E Claims and Approvals 661,376 717,818 744,824 765,405 780,312 791,511 792,196 771,415 786,135 759,332 426,087 446,623 465,235 486,690 479,900 492,959 488,812 470,765 493,783 475,003 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Claims DRV Bund Approvals DRV Bund 4
  5. 5. Key figures expenses for rehabilitation 2015 medical rehabilitation vocational rehabilitation benefits paid in place of salary and social security fees refunds and other Total: 2,615 million euro * 1,740 million euro 279 million euro 602 million euro Source: AL 8000* gross without refunds and allowances | expected annual earnings 2015 (02nd of February 2016) -6 million euro 5
  6. 6. Development of population 2013 - 2030 Source: Destatis Bevölkerungspyramide 13.koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung 6
  7. 7. Proportions of different age groups in the population (in millions) variant 1-W1 age group total AQ <20 20-65 65+ 2013 14.7 49.2 16.9 80.8 34.0 2030 13.8 43.6 21.8 79.2 50.0 Assumptions : birth rate approximately constant at 1.4 children per woman Life expectancy at birth in 2060: 84.8 years for boys 88,8 years for girls yearly migration balance (from 2021) + 100 000 persons Source: Destatis Bevölkerungspyramide 13.koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung 7
  8. 8. 38.3 45.6 53.8 57 58 70.1 45.6 50.1 63.5 61.7 59.8 73.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 F EU-28 D DK GB S 2008 2013 Good news: Employment rate 55 to 64 years in Germany above the average of the EU Source: Eurostat, 2015 proportion of older employees in percent 8
  9. 9. Average age of retirement due to old age 60.0 61.0 62.0 63.0 64.0 65.0 66.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 men women averageage(years) Source: ISRV Tab.: 102.00 Z RV 9
  10. 10. 45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 52.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 men women Average age of retirement due to reduced earning capacity Source: ISRV Tab.: 102.00 Z RV averageage(years) 10
  11. 11. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 men women Retirement due to reduced earning capacity - Musculoskeletal diseases system and connective tissue Source: Rentenversicherung in Zeitreihen Oktober 2014 numbers 11
  12. 12. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 men women Source: Rentenversicherung in Zeitreihen Oktober 2014 Retirement due to reduced earning capacity Mental and behavioural disorders 12 numbers
  13. 13. Developments in medical rehabilitation - Average age of the rehabilitees Mental and behavioural disorders 44.2 44.2 44.4 44.9 45.2 45.8 46.1 46.5 46.9 47.3 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: ISRV Tab.: 07+16.00 M RV 13
  14. 14. 49.5 49.7 49.9 50.3 50.6 51 51.4 51.8 52.1 52.4 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: ISRV Tab.: 16.00 M RV Developments in medical rehabilitation - Average age of the rehabilitees Orthopedics 14
  15. 15. Approvals Medical rehabilitation - Approvals by age Source: Infosys web 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 < 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 >65 age (years) 2009 2015 2009: n = 486,690, 2015: n = 475,003 15
  16. 16. Prediction of develoment of medical rehabilitation German Federal Pension Insurance (total) Source: RSD, inkl. AHB, abgeschl. Reha, * hochgerechnet 2014: n = 1.008.050, 2018: n = 1.055.830 Rehabilitation 2007 – 2014* Prediction 2015 - 2018 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 + 4,7% 2014* - 2018 16
  17. 17. Needs for orientation in medical rehabilitation Source: Re-Analyse MBO-Studie (Streibelt 2009) Patient survey before starting orthopedic rehabilitation: What do you think will help you most during rehabilitation? 17
  18. 18. Needs for orientation in medical rehabilitation 80% 10% 25% 23% 87% 11% 64% 41% 35% 69% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% gymnastics / sports worktherapy / ergotherapy relaxation therapy occupational consultation occupational therapy <=50 years n= 981 >50 years n= 630 Source: Re-Analyse MBO-Studie (Streibelt 2009) 18
  19. 19. Patient survey Source: Re-Analyse MBO-Studie (Streibelt 2009) Patient survey after finishing a somatic rehabilitation: Did you receive consultations and help in the rehab-center to facilitate the situation at your workplace or to return to work? 19
  20. 20. Item S50 Patient survey Situation at workplace or return to work 59% 41% 69% 31% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% no yes >50 years n=11.088 <=50 years n=11.797 Source: Befragungszeitraum II/2007 + I/2008 20
  21. 21. 21 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Tage bis Rentenzugang KumuliertesÜberleben T-Wert bis 40 T-Wert größer 40 bis 60 T-Wert größer 60 Risk-Index for reduced earning capacity pensions Quelle: Bethge et al. 2011 Goal: Prediction of early retirement (ER) Principle: Scale of 0 to 100 points, consisting of contributions of the last 3 years (amount and origin) and sociodemographic factors Risk of ER: 30 times higher Risk of ER: 6 times higher Hit rate of ER: 74 % Nearly 90% in ER after 5 years! VerbleibimErwerbsleben
  22. 22. 31% 0% 0% 8% 12% 0% 0% 19% 13% 32% 0% 5% 63% 0% 72% 0% 19% 13% 75% 1% 0% 12% 68% 11% 43% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% continous Contributions to pension insurance temporary contributions early retirement retirement death <= 29 years, n=4.705 30-39 years, n=13.537 40-49 years, n=37.737 50-59 years, n=44.095 > 60 years, n=7.349 Benefit of rehabilitation Payment of contributions - two years follow up Rehab caused by mental and behavioural disorders Source: RSD 2005-2012 !  Compulsorily insured persons, who finished medical rehabilitation in 2010 22
  23. 23. Conclusions Ageing workforce leads to older clients in rehab-centers Risk of reduced earning capacity must be main focus of Pension Insurance and rehab-centers Services for older patients must be focused strictly on return to work Workplace orientated rehabilitation as a main focus for German Pension Insurance 23
  24. 24. Impressum 23rd Rehabilitation International World Congress 25th of October – 27nd of October 2016, Edinburgh, Scotland Consequences of demographic change on rehabilitation in German Pension Insurance Uwe Egner German Federal Pension Insurance 24

×