2010 01 04 Project Fuel L Jason Magazine

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Curtainraiser article on Project FUEL-L in JASON Institute

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2010 01 04 Project Fuel L Jason Magazine

  1. 1. Artikelen FUEL-L: ‘Future Urban Extreme Littoral-Land’ 2015 and beyond By Marco Hekkens (Colonel Royal Netherlands Marine Corps) A ‘curtain raiser’ about a multi-disciplinary study into future military/civil engagement in (mega) coastal conglomerations.1 This article is a brief introduction into this complex operating environment: speaking in military terms, it should be seen as the ‘orientation phase’ of any operational planning process. It is aimed to spark debate on the role of the future military (in a joint & combined, interagency setting); define future force structure and training and equipments requirements and crucial ‘enabling mechanisms’. Project FUEL-L is very much ‘work in progress’ and the interaction with respondents and insights gained will be most valuable for the research; and building a network of ‘co-thinkers’. Introduction which are ignorant to basic awareness should not deduce from this that for With increasing recurrence, articles are and care for the(ir) environment, it instance Dutch Forces will always be published that discuss the effects of will simply create a downward spiral able to operate ‘world-wide’.5 From a migration towards the coastal (littoral 2) of living circumstances, especially in military point of view, it will also assess areas in the world, explaining a variety the already, endemic poorer areas of options for methods of deployment and of reasons; and introducing possible the world. It will create a vicious cycle employment of combined/joint maritime, future risks and threats, of which some between poverty, urban poverty, and amphibious and other joint forces, and can have regional, if not global security environmental burdens. agencies in this complex operating consequences. A common cause for environment by looking at the Decisive many, if not all of the risks is the quest “Cities are associated with Capabilities, Decisive Conditions and for resources and base necessities environmental degradation, squalor, Supporting Effects required in this such as food and potable water. Other poverty and crime. It is only in recent unique environment. risks follow the prevailing level of years that policymakers have begun criminal activity, where one could argue to understand that well-planned and To quote: “Of course, the military can do that there is at least a linear relation well-governed cities can prevent the any kind of task. The boundary between between the size of the population, the negative consequences of urbanisation, what the military should and should www.stichtingjason.nl level of unemployment and the level of and can actually provide an opportunity not do is maintained only by tradition, crime. Other authors will passionately to address and mitigate urban poverty norms and principles: Changes loom discuss the risk to the environment, and environmental degradation.” 3 large.” 6 But will they? where functioning civil institutions find it increasingly hard, if not impossible Project FUEL-L will study the On 26 November, Dr. Sebastian Reyn, to deal with the increasing influx of interlocking effects caused by an Director of the Future Policy Survey people into already poorly regulated increasing expansion of urban littoral regarding the future of the armed forces and polluted areas, with defunct or no conglomerations, with the aim to distil of The Netherlands reiterated that ‘the existing sanitation infrastructures. In insights that can contribute to and world becomes more uncertain, less certain regions all this is even further inform national, NATO and EU4 policy secure.’7 Whilst many will probably compounded by failing agricultural making for future military engagement in concur, based on informed data or just schemes due to changes in weather such specific ‘operating areas’. During on personal perception, it is far more patterns. With more people moving this orientation stage, no geographical difficult to draw the correct deductions into already congested areas, most of boundaries are set, although one and set ‘wheels in motion’ that will – for 24 JASON Magazine * Jaargang 35
  2. 2. Artikelen instance – allocate financial resources two can be by invitation by the local edge of the water! By any stretch of to prepare the Armed Forces for 2020 government, or under a mandate imagination, this will not be an easy and beyond, independent of the political from the International Community or a task, and it will require significant bias of the in-place government. Regional Security Cooperation Initiative additional training for both joint staffs (e.g. the UN, EU, AU, OSCE etc). and forces. It will also require a new Maritime Focus – With inland reach and Mindset (with capital ‘M’), as recently supporting effect Maritime expeditionary forces – stated by Lieutenant General Viereck Maritime expeditionary forces, operating now and in the future – bring niche during the 2009 Confined and Shallow in a cooperative, combined and capabilities that are uniquely suited water Conference.9 This new Mindset joint context are forces of choice for to augment and complement in-place must foremost accept that military operations in the littoral and adjacent military, police, civil emergency services forces may, or even will play – more land environment. Operations and and institutions, and other agency than before – a supporting role to local, type of missions can span across capabilities. To fully anticipate and foreign civilian institutions, and that Key a broad range of employment understand this future urban extreme Relation Building10 with local actors will options: ranging from military and/ littoral operating environment will precede ‘full flow’ military supporting or humanitarian assistance to local become quintessential to maintain operations in order to establish a viable authorities in a benign environment enduring ‘maritime relevance’. Not ‘playing field’ from the outset. by invitation, to discreet focused downgrading traditional maritime roles intervention in a specific area bounded (which remain important), there should Shaping the future - Shaping the by time and space, to more prolonged be increased focus on the littoral expectations military operations in a much wider environment and all of the military It follows from the previous paragraph littoral environment including major must become intimately ‘at home’ in that both the political and military urbanised conglomerations, industrial it, maintaining agility and adaptability leadership at all levels of command infrastructures; and with a diverse and ensure ‘4-dimensional8 manoeuvre must be ‘attuned’ to future engagement tapestry of economic, cultural, ethnic dominance’. Simply put, the maritime in these highly complex and demanding and/or historical influences. The latter ‘security umbrella’ does not stop at the urbanised littoral environments. To www.stichtingjason.nl Little bit of littoral overcrowding? Source: Financial Times. JASON Magazine * Nummer 1 2010 25
  3. 3. Artikelen Amphibious exercise Royal Netherlands Marine Corps in Constanta, Romania. (Picture by Pieter Rademakers) understand ‘complexity’, one must look an emergency. In view of the ongoing that same IC; or a group of (legitimate) at the detail and the many interlocking migration towards the coast, this is Regional Actors?12 factors to make an informed decision, of importance if The Netherlands clearly without losing the overview. wishes to be a responsible member of In confronting today’s and tomorrows However, ignoring the detail at an early coalitions. challenges, civilian and military forces stage will increase the risk of setting must increasingly work together in ourselves up for potential failure and/ It is for such reasons that one might a cooperative fashion, oftentimes or increasing operating costs at a future cautiously predict that future missions bringing to bear the same toolbox and stage. by European nations will probably be similar procedures. Therefore, at least less ambitious, and conducted at ‘less in theory only slight modifications and The ‘Age of Austerity’, the real and strategic distance’ (much closer to understanding will be required to make combined effects of the current financial home), in North Africa, the Middle East a truly combined and cooperative force, crisis, but also climate change; and and possibly Central Africa. There will capable of organising complicated resource and energy concerns, may possibly be a much greater emphasis civil-military effect in complex places. very well start to show at some distant on humanitarian disaster and/or conflict Nowadays, an increased requirement time in the future despite sounds of prevention, on defensive security for military-civilian cooperation is well optimism. And that therefore, while and on policing the consequences understood and widely acted upon by there may be a pressing reason and of any state failures in the European most of NATO forces as operations in www.stichtingjason.nl clear mandate for intervention, some neighbourhood. Far greater emphasis Afghanistan demonstrate. But turning to nations may find it increasingly hard to will need to be placed on ‘pre-conflict future engagement in the urban littoral, contribute with appropriate capabilities intervention’ and on the stabilisation of are we ready to accept that military- ‘at readiness’, in the right quantities; at existing institutions.11 While this may civilian cooperation and cross-training considerable distance from home. In sound promising or just ambitious, would not only allow civilian and military this context, the decision to proceed will the legal framework underpinning to become much better acquainted with building a Joint Support Vessel to legitimacy for military engagement with each other’s current and future support expeditionary operations, will transform at a similar pace; and how will capabilities, but that it would also positively influence to what extend The the International Community (IC) look promote seamless and complementary Netherlands can continue to contribute at sovereignty issues when ‘immediate operations, and – in extremis – could to future joint operations ‘from the sea’ action’ for moral, humanitarian, replace each other….there where at strategic distance. Either as part of a environmental or other pressing possible(!)? ‘pre-positioned force’, or responding to unlawful acts is deemed necessary by 26 JASON Magazine * Jaargang 35
  4. 4. Artikelen As one consequence, I envisage The JASON community, as an achieved’ .14 Project FUEL-L has been future military forces working much ‘intellectual environment of choice’, initiated exactly with this in mind.  closer with law enforcement and public would be an ideal audience of safety agencies; and that therefore it potential ‘co-thinkers’ to contemplate, The author currently serves as Deputy must be clear from the outset what the discuss and debate, and ultimately Commander Netherlands Maritime military forces can do, and perhaps inform our political leaders of pertinent Force and Commander Landing more importantly, what they should viewpoints and deeply rooted beliefs Force. From January 2010 he will not do unless absolutely necessary in that will affect the foreign policy of be on standby as Deputy Force order to avoid creating seams along The Netherlands, and by association Commander and Senior National jurisdictional lines between military its Armed Forces. Maintaining our Representative for the combined and law enforcement agencies. In traditional maritime relevance is only United Kingdom/Netherlands this context, it is interesting to note one facet thereof, albeit very close to European Battlegroup rotation 2010/1. that NATO is yet to formally decide my heart. its position on this particular type of Col Hekkens is currently scheduled to cooperation with law enforcement ‘It is true that a person who looks talk about Project FUEL-L on February agencies.13 10 years ahead and says he knows 22nd as part of the monthly JASON exactly what the future will be – is, activity roster. This article is written Conclusion frankly, a Court Jester. But by using on a personal title and does not The comprehensive, multi-facetted new and novel thinking we will be necessarily represent official Defence, approach of Project FUEL-L depends able to question current judgment – Navy or Marine or Marine Corps policy very much on the dynamic and and through this questioning comes or viewpoints. creative interaction with a broad range innovation and through innovation of experts and enthusiasts through real and tangible improvements in informed debate. European military capabilities can be References: 1. Research areas are for instance: 4. With its new policy document unveiled on 10. This expression is a more appropriate orchestrating the military – non-military the 15th October–“Towards the integration of term for ‘Key Leader Engagement (KLE)’ interface; incl. the legal framework; and maritime surveillance: A common information as it underscores the purpose of KLE: local jurisdiction and ‘routine’ delineation of sharing environment for the EU maritime engagement with other stakeholders, not responsibilities; demographic and socio- domain”– the European Commission is necessarily agreeing at first, in order to economic considerations – to include setting in motion a hugely ambitious plan to establish mutual trust as prerequisite for delineation along lines such as: ‘have & knit together numerous national and regional further constructive cooperation. Term have not’; historical, religious and cultural maritime players and their incompatible introduced in Post Deployment Report of boundaries; public health and pandemic databases (Defence IQ.com Newsletter 26 COMUKAMPHIBFOR on completion of their threats; innovative mass transportation November 2009). operational tour in Basra, Iraq. developments; mass evacuation & area 5. Unfortunately, this statement can be 11. Pre-conflict intervention does not per se containment; media operations; robotics read as contrary to the motto of the Royal exclude preventative activities. The timely and remote sensing; cyber ‘warfare’; Netherlands Marine Corps: Qua Patet Orbis application of ‘Soft Power’ by invitation, in radicalisation; management of the safety and – ‘As wide as the world extends’! the Host Nation, could be a forceful tool security of infrastructures and ‘critical nodes’ 6. Third Generation Civil-Military Relations compared to diplomatic, financial and/or (avoid ‘domino effect’); future ‘entertainment’ and the ‘New Revolution in Military Affairs’ economic measures applied ‘at distance’. trends (what is ‘cool’, and where?); bio/ by Frederik Rosén (DIIS Working Paper 12. It is beyond the scope of this article, but chemical, incl. ‘natural’ pollution hazard 2009:03). it is very well possible that nations will agree mitigation; registration and tracking of people; 7. De Volkskrant, ‘Kamer krijgt keus uit vier to ‘divide the world’ into areas where these building design (counter ‘vertical mobility’); opties voor leger’; 28 November 2009, p. 3. nations accept a primary responsibility to ‘Gangland culture and warfare’, incl. gang & 8. Project FUEL-L introduces the term 4th assist or intervene. criminal critical nodes; implications of climate Dimension to describe the future sub- 13. Bob Mansergh, Commodore (UK Navy) – www.stichtingjason.nl change (on infrastructure and ecosystems). terranean battlespace. Possibly, if not true, Deputy Director Combined Joint Operations 2. Defined as ‘the coastal sea areas and that the most ‘expensive’ infrastructures are from the Sea Centre of Excellence, speaking portion of the land which is susceptible to situated below ground level. The sub- on Maritime Security Operations Concept influence or support from the sea, generally terranean battlespace presents unique and Alliance Maritime Strategy, Kiel, 10 recognised as the region which horizontally challenges and risks, with specialist skills November 2009. encompasses the land-watermass interface required across wide fields of expertise. 14. www.europesworld.org; statement by Mr from 100 kms ashore to 200 nm at sea, 9. Karlheinz Viereck, LtGen German Airforce Paul Collins, Head of Capabilities Support and extending vertically into space from - Deputy Chief of Staff Allied Command Unit of the European Defence Agency (EDA), the bottom of the ocean and from the land for Transformation, statement during his 20 March 2009. surface’. delivery of the Keynote Speech at the Centre 3. “Here's how we can live with a global of Excellence for Operations in Confined population of 9bn” by Anna Tibaijuka. and Shallow Waters Conference in Kiel, 10 Europe’s World, Summer 2009, no. 12. November 2009. JASON Magazine * Nummer 1 2010 27

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