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Self-Driving
Campaigns:
What’s Real,
What’s Hype,
What’s Next
David Raab
Raab Associates
Welcome to the FutureWelcome to the Future
Welcome to the FutureWelcome to the Future
Good news: this won’t happen.
Welcome to the FutureWelcome to the Future
Good news: this won’t happen.
Bad news: we don’t know what will.
Welcome to the FutureWelcome to the Future
Good news: this won’t happen.
Bad news: we don’t know what will.
Worst news: we...
Cautionary Tales
David Raab
Raab Associates
What’s
Real?
David Raab
Raab Associates
Cutting Edge AI
• Uru identifies video topic and inserts related logos onto
flat surfaces within videos
• Cloverlead reads...
Cutting Edge AI
• Uru identifies video topic and inserts related logos onto
flat surfaces within videos
• Cloverlead reads...
AI Base Truths
AI systems have talents, not skills
• Recognition: speech, image, video, emotion
• Identification: face, vo...
AI Base Truths
Training takes data
à AI systems are limited by available data
Training creates specialists
àAI systems are...
Campaign Tasks
David Raab
Raab Associates
Build	Foundations Make	Choices
•assemble	data •find	opportunities
•create	produc...
Campaign Tasks – AI Concentrations
David Raab
Raab Associates
Build	Foundations Make	Choices
•assemble	data •find	opportun...
Content Creation AI
David Raab
Raab Associates
Content	Insights
• Sysomos uses	AI	to	find	trends	and	recommend	contents	in...
Opportunity Identification AI
David Raab
Raab Associates
Opportunity	Identification
• ZenIQ finds	ABM	opportunities	and	he...
Product/Content Recommendation AI
David Raab
Raab Associates
Product/Content	Recommendation
• Pyze AI-based	app	personaliz...
Campaign Creation AI
David Raab
Raab Associates
Campaign	Creation
• Coherent	Path	uses	ML	to	analyzes	emails	and	customers...
Campaign Creation AI - Incomplete
David Raab
Raab Associates
campaign	tasks performed
vendor:
create	
segments
create	
con...
What’s
Hype?
David Raab
Raab Associates
So far, we’ve seen…
• AI systems are inherently specialists.
• Self-driving campaigns require multiple functions.
• No exi...
David Raab
Raab Associates
Obstacles to Self-Driving Campaigns:
Complexity
Multiple components
• Some exist, many don’t
Multi-step sequences
• Harder...
Obstacles to Self-Driving Campaigns:
Coordination
Multiple components must cooperate
• Specialist systems designed for spe...
Obstacles to Self-Driving Campaigns:
Continuous Change
AI decisions based on training data
• Must retrain when conditions ...
What’s Next?
David Raab
Raab Associates
What’s Next?
For Marketing
David Raab
Raab Associates
Rise of Personal Networks
Facebook & Google own:
• 8 of top 10 U.S. mobile apps
• 80% of U.S. referral traffic
• 72% of U....
Why Personal Networks Matters
Network Effect: Connections grow faster than nodes.
David Raab
Raab Associates
Why Personal Networks Matter
Personal Network Effect: the more relationships you have,
the more each is worth. (And the mo...
Because Personal Networks Matter:
Intercepting the Buyer
David Raab
Raab Associates
If Personal Networks Win…
• Other marketers can’t reach customers
independently
• Other marketers can’t compete to pay for...
Competing with Personal Networks
Strong relationships are essential
• must deliver more value to customer than Network can...
Caution: Foxes Beat Hedgehogs
David Raab
Raab Associates
(Translation:
predictions
based on one
big idea are
more likely t...
If Today’s Trends Continue
• More data
• More channels
• More personalization
• More coordinated experience
David Raab
Raa...
If Today’s Trends Continue
• Greater complexity makes self-driving
campaigns even less likely
• Greater complexity makes A...
What’s Next?
For You
David Raab
Raab Associates
Prepare for AI Augmentation
Learn to Evaluate AI Options
• Evaluate the whole system, not just AI
• Assess abilities vs re...
Prepare for AI Augmentation
Recognize the Risks
• AI as black box means it’s hard to know what’s happening
• System takes ...
Prepare for AI Augmentation
Manage the Risks
• Keep AI components modular, so can make changes and
isolate problems
• Loos...
Prepare for Self-Driving AI (Just in Case)
Build a foundation for cooperation
• Look for AI systems that can cooperate
• L...
David Raab
Raab Associates Inc.
draab@raabassociates.com
www.cdpinstitute.org
David Raab
Raab Associates
Thank You!
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Self-Driving Campaigns: What's Real, What's Hype, What's Next By David Raab

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From the #MarTech Boston Conference in Boston, Massachusetts October 2-4, 2017. SESSION: Self-Driving Campaigns: What's Real vs. Hype vs. Next. PRESENTATION: Self-Driving Campaigns: What's Real, What's Hype, What's Next - Given by David Raab - Raab & Associates, Principal

Published in: Marketing
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Self-Driving Campaigns: What's Real, What's Hype, What's Next By David Raab

  1. 1. Self-Driving Campaigns: What’s Real, What’s Hype, What’s Next David Raab Raab Associates
  2. 2. Welcome to the FutureWelcome to the Future
  3. 3. Welcome to the FutureWelcome to the Future Good news: this won’t happen.
  4. 4. Welcome to the FutureWelcome to the Future Good news: this won’t happen. Bad news: we don’t know what will.
  5. 5. Welcome to the FutureWelcome to the Future Good news: this won’t happen. Bad news: we don’t know what will. Worst news: we think we know.
  6. 6. Cautionary Tales David Raab Raab Associates
  7. 7. What’s Real? David Raab Raab Associates
  8. 8. Cutting Edge AI • Uru identifies video topic and inserts related logos onto flat surfaces within videos • Cloverlead reads shopper emotions and adjusts ads on grocery shelves • VoiceLabs embeds advertisements in Amazon Alexa voice interactions • ScopeStyle does visual search to find similar product styles and completes an outfit David Raab Raab Associates
  9. 9. Cutting Edge AI • Uru identifies video topic and inserts related logos onto flat surfaces within videos • Cloverlead reads shopper emotions and adjusts ads on grocery shelves • VoiceLabs embeds advertisements in Amazon Alexa voice interactions • ScopeStyle does visual search to find similar product styles and completes an outfit David Raab Raab Associates
  10. 10. AI Base Truths AI systems have talents, not skills • Recognition: speech, image, video, emotion • Identification: face, voice, iris, behaviors • Processing: natural language, machine learning, prediction, classification, inference, planning Changing talent to skills takes training àAI systems need training David Raab Raab Associates
  11. 11. AI Base Truths Training takes data à AI systems are limited by available data Training creates specialists àAI systems are specialists Specialists work within teams à AI applications use multiple AI & non-AI systems David Raab Raab Associates
  12. 12. Campaign Tasks David Raab Raab Associates Build Foundations Make Choices •assemble data •find opportunities •create products •allocate budgets •connect channels •pick products •pick channels Create Assets •pick segments •create segments •pick content •create contents •buy media •set sequence
  13. 13. Campaign Tasks – AI Concentrations David Raab Raab Associates Build Foundations Make Choices •assemble data •find opportunities •create products •allocate budgets •connect channels •pick products •pick channels Create Assets •pick segments •create segments •pick content •create contents •buy media •set sequence
  14. 14. Content Creation AI David Raab Raab Associates Content Insights • Sysomos uses AI to find trends and recommend contents in social • LiftMetrix social media measurement, content tagging, brand mentions, campaign improvement recommendations (bought by Hootsuite) • Captora analyzes online content and finds opportunities • Crayon sends real time feed of changes in competitive data inc. prices, messaging, products, reviews • Amobee tracks content consumption for trends; separate product builds cross-channel profiles and serves ads Content Creation • Phrasee uses AI to write email subject lines using psych, NLG, testing • Persado uses AI to generate ad content e.g. subject lines • Magisto assembles clips into finished video; generates & tests variations • Wibbitz uses NLP to convert text to video expressing same ideas • ADEXT/MyCampaign autocreates small business sales pages and social ads • Bridg classifies customers, sends to campaigns, creates personalized messages
  15. 15. Opportunity Identification AI David Raab Raab Associates Opportunity Identification • ZenIQ finds ABM opportunities and helps execute • Datorama Genius gives actionable insights from data it monitors • IBM Watson marketing insights finds segments & presents them to users • Pega uses AI to find inefficiencies in sales and service behaviors • Evergage finds opportunities and problems based on visitor behavior; also does product recommendations to visitors • Conductor offers observations and recommendations based on Web content • Spinnakr ai-based Web insights, recommendations, deployment
  16. 16. Product/Content Recommendation AI David Raab Raab Associates Product/Content Recommendation • Pyze AI-based app personalization/segmentation • Cloudera analyzes game events to target personalized messages • Highspot uses AI to do content discovery for sales people • BloomReach has AI driven content recommendations • Celebros has semantic-based site search • Monetate uses ML to selects best content for each customer • Emarsys uses AI for Web product & incentive recommendations • Qubit uses ML to find high potential value segments & pick personalized Web messages • OpenTopic uses AI to find segments, select assets, and deploy campaigns • RevJet tests alternative content versions and optimizes • Quantifi uses AI to run tests in social ads & make suggestions
  17. 17. Campaign Creation AI David Raab Raab Associates Campaign Creation • Coherent Path uses ML to analyzes emails and customers to find optimal email content and day, and suggest underexposed products and categories • Amplero does AI-based segmentation to find best audiences for each email • Cordial runs self-optimizing email content tests and picks best time • Signpost finds campaign opportunities, generates lists, writes email or text messages for small businesses; aggregates data across customers for training • Albert uses AI to allocate budget across channels, buy media, find segments, and select best message per segment • Jivox serves dynamic ads, uses ML to optimize • ZyloTech uses ML to clean customer data, find intent, and deploy promotions • Optimove does AI-based segmentation & targeting • FreeMachines picks messages, timing, and segments to optimize long-term value
  18. 18. Campaign Creation AI - Incomplete David Raab Raab Associates campaign tasks performed vendor: create segments create content find oppty allocate budget pick product pick channel pick segment pick content buy media set sequence Coherent Path x x x Amplero x x Cordial x Signpost x x x Albert x x x x x Jivox x x ZyloTech x x x Optimove x x x FreeMachines x x x x x
  19. 19. What’s Hype? David Raab Raab Associates
  20. 20. So far, we’ve seen… • AI systems are inherently specialists. • Self-driving campaigns require multiple functions. • No existing ‘campaign creation’ system is close to complete. David Raab Raab Associates
  21. 21. David Raab Raab Associates
  22. 22. Obstacles to Self-Driving Campaigns: Complexity Multiple components • Some exist, many don’t Multi-step sequences • Harder to simulate than single interactions Uncertainty • Marketing is less stable than strategy games (rules change) • Hard to measure/predict/train against long-term outcomes • Risk of unexpected interactions among systems (chaos) David Raab Raab Associates
  23. 23. Obstacles to Self-Driving Campaigns: Coordination Multiple components must cooperate • Specialist systems designed for specialist tasks • Need common language for rules, content, goals, etc. • Need to know when other components are running test, not working, retraining, etc. (because will skew new learnings) • Cooperation is not a natural AI skill; need to be trained David Raab Raab Associates
  24. 24. Obstacles to Self-Driving Campaigns: Continuous Change AI decisions based on training data • Must retrain when conditions change • Different components will retrain at different times • More components in place, greater chance that at least one won’t be online at any given time • As AI components adjust their actions, other AI systems need to retrain (never-ending loop) • Black swans can be catastrophic if systems ignore them or fail poorly David Raab Raab Associates
  25. 25. What’s Next? David Raab Raab Associates
  26. 26. What’s Next? For Marketing David Raab Raab Associates
  27. 27. Rise of Personal Networks Facebook & Google own: • 8 of top 10 U.S. mobile apps • 80% of U.S. referral traffic • 72% of U.S. digital ad revenue • 25% of all U.S. media time Amazon owns: • 43% of U.S. online retail sales David Raab Raab Associates
  28. 28. Why Personal Networks Matters Network Effect: Connections grow faster than nodes. David Raab Raab Associates
  29. 29. Why Personal Networks Matter Personal Network Effect: the more relationships you have, the more each is worth. (And the more you’d pay for it.) David Raab Raab Associates 2 nodes = 1 connection 4 nodes = 6 connections 6 nodes = 15 connections
  30. 30. Because Personal Networks Matter: Intercepting the Buyer David Raab Raab Associates
  31. 31. If Personal Networks Win… • Other marketers can’t reach customers independently • Other marketers can’t compete to pay for new customers • Customers will be trapped inside Personal Network relationships (voluntarily) David Raab Raab Associates
  32. 32. Competing with Personal Networks Strong relationships are essential • must deliver more value to customer than Network can provide Subscriptions can help • gather more detailed information to deliver better value • Networks can’t intercept the interactions Regulators may step in • but don’t bet on it, especially in the U.S. David Raab Raab Associates
  33. 33. Caution: Foxes Beat Hedgehogs David Raab Raab Associates (Translation: predictions based on one big idea are more likely to be wrong.) (Even if they’re mine.)
  34. 34. If Today’s Trends Continue • More data • More channels • More personalization • More coordinated experience David Raab Raab Associates
  35. 35. If Today’s Trends Continue • Greater complexity makes self-driving campaigns even less likely • Greater complexity makes AI-powered augmentation even more important • Data becomes more important than ever • both drive experience and to train AI David Raab Raab Associates
  36. 36. What’s Next? For You David Raab Raab Associates
  37. 37. Prepare for AI Augmentation Learn to Evaluate AI Options • Evaluate the whole system, not just AI • Assess abilities vs requirements vs alternatives • Accept that AI is often black box, so can only measure results Address AI-Specific Challenges • Training data (available? clean? relevant?) • Robustness (react to change, to bad results; fail gracefully) • Result monitoring by humans (or other AIs) • Explanations of AI choices (when available) David Raab Raab Associates
  38. 38. Prepare for AI Augmentation Recognize the Risks • AI as black box means it’s hard to know what’s happening • System takes control (“auto-correct gone wild”) • Interaction loops among components (reacting to each others’ tests, mistakes, changes) • Harder to monitor more personalized treatments (no single version of campaign or content to review) • Marketers get out of practice, don’t learn their trade David Raab Raab Associates
  39. 39. Prepare for AI Augmentation Manage the Risks • Keep AI components modular, so can make changes and isolate problems • Loosely couple components to avoid interactions • Keep humans in the loop to monitor outputs and results • Use systems to monitor for large patterns (e.g. frequency distributions for recommended products) • Capture lots of data (you don’t know in advance what you might need; training will be faster if you already have it) • Balance flexibility vs efficiency (don’t automate everything) David Raab Raab Associates
  40. 40. Prepare for Self-Driving AI (Just in Case) Build a foundation for cooperation • Look for AI systems that can cooperate • Look for a cooperation framework • Develop long-term metrics • Address organizational issues (don’t let AI create new silos) David Raab Raab Associates
  41. 41. David Raab Raab Associates Inc. draab@raabassociates.com www.cdpinstitute.org David Raab Raab Associates Thank You!

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