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‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫آﺷﻨﺎﯾﯽ‬
‫اﺳﺘﺎرﺗﺎپ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﯽ‬ ‫اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي‬‫ﻫﺎ‬
7%
8%
8%
8%
8%
9%
9%
10%
13%
13%
13%
14%
14%
17%
17%
18%
19%
23%
29%
42%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
‫ﭼﺮﺧﺶ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﺷﮑﺴﺖ‬
‫ﮐﺎر‬ ‫اﻧﺠﺎم‬ ‫اﻧﺮژي‬ ‫اﺗﻤﺎم‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎوره‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺳﺎزي‬‫ﺷﺒﮑﻪ‬ ‫از‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﻋﺪم‬
‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﯽ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬‫ﭼﺎﻟﺶ‬
‫ﮔﺬاران‬‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬ ‫ي‬‫ﻋﻼﻗﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺪم‬
‫ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻧﻤﺎﯾﯽ‬
‫اﺷﺘﯿﺎق‬ ‫ﮐﻤﺒﻮد‬
‫ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﭼﺮﺧﺶ‬
‫ﮔﺬاران‬‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬ ‫ﯾﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﯿﻢ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮕﯽ‬ ‫ﻋﺪم‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ‬ ‫دادن‬ ‫دﺳﺖ‬ ‫از‬
‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻧﺎدرﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺪي‬‫زﻣﺎن‬
‫ﻣﺸﺘﺮﯾﺎن‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﺎدﯾﺪه‬
‫ﺿﻌﯿﻒ‬ ‫ﺑﺎزارﯾﺎﺑﯽ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﮐﺎر‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﮐﺴﺐ‬ ‫ﻣﺪل‬
‫ﺿﻌﯿﻒ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‬
‫ﻫﺎ‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﮔﺬاري‬‫ﻗﯿﻤﺖ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﺸﮑﻼت‬
‫رﻗﺎﺑﺖ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺗﻮاﻧﯽ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﺗﯿﻢ‬
‫ﻧﻘﺪﯾﻨﮕﯽ‬ ‫اﺗﻤﺎم‬
‫ﺑﺎزار‬ ‫ﻧﯿﺎز‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‬ ‫ي‬‫اراﺋﻪ‬
20
‫اﺳﺘﺎرﺗ‬ ‫ﺷﮑﺴﺖ‬ ‫اﺻﻠﯽ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﺖ‬‫ﻫﺎ‬‫ﺎپ‬
‫زﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﺬﻣﺖ‬‫در‬
1386 1396
10‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻫﺰار‬ 10‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻫﺰار‬
‫اﺷﺘﻦ‬‫ﺬ‬‫ﮔ‬‫دﺳﺖ‬‫روي‬‫دﺳﺖ‬‫ي‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬
‫ي‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻓﺮﺻﺖ‬
‫ﺗﻮرم‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬
‫ﮔﺬاري‬
‫ﺳﻮد‬
‫ﺑﺎﻧﮑﯽ‬
‫ﻧﺪارم‬ ‫ﭘﻮل‬
‫ﺑﮑﻨﻢ‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻟﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻮان‬‫ﻧﻤﯽ‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﮐﺎري‬!
‫ﭘﻮل‬‫دارم‬
‫ﮐﻨﻢ‬ ‫ﮐﺎر‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻟﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻮاﻫﻢ‬‫ﻧﻤﯽ‬ ‫اﻣﺎ‬!
‫دارم‬ ‫ﭘﻮل‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬
‫ﮐﻨﻢ‬ ‫ﮐﺎر‬ ‫ﭘﻮﻟﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻮاﻫﻢ‬‫ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬!
15%
20%
1000%
‫ﻧﺮود‬ ‫ﯾﺎدﻣﺎن‬...
‫ﮐﻠﯿﺪي‬ ‫ﭘﺮﺳﺶ‬:
‫ﭘﻮ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫اﯾﻦ‬‫ل‬
‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮط‬
‫اﺳﺖ؟‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﯽ‬
‫ﭼﯿﺰ‬‫ﻫﻤﻪ‬ِ‫ﯽ‬‫ﻃﻼﯾ‬‫ﻓﺮﻣﻮل‬!
= × (1 + )
‫در‬ ‫ارزش‬
‫ي‬‫دوره‬n‫ُم‬‫ا‬
‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮ‬ ‫ﺣﺎل‬ ‫ارزش‬
)‫ﺻﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﺳﺎل‬(
‫ﻓﺮﺻﺖ‬ ‫ي‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬
)‫ﺗﻨﺰﯾﻞ‬ ‫ﻧﺮخ‬(
‫دوره‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺪاد‬
‫ﺷ‬ ‫ﺳﭙﺮي‬‫ﺪه‬
‫ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ‬‫اﻓﺘﺎدن‬‫ﺟﺎ‬‫اي‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺑ‬:‫ﻣﺮﮐﺐ‬‫ﺳﻮد‬‫ﻗﺪرت‬
1 × (1 + 1%) = 37.8
1 × (1 − 1%) = 0.03
‫ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ‬‫اﻓﺘﺎدن‬‫ﺟﺎ‬‫اي‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺑ‬:‫ﻣﺮﮐﺐ‬‫ﺳﻮد‬‫ات‬‫ذ‬
•2.27‫از‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﭘﻮل‬ ‫ﺷﺪن‬ ‫ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ‬5‫ﺳﺎل‬!
•127‫ﺳﻮد‬ ‫درﺻﺪ‬!
= × (1 + )
2.27 = 1 × (1 + )
=
.
−1 = 17.8%
ِ‫ﻢ‬َ‫ﻟ‬‫ﻋﺎ‬‫اﻗﻊ‬‫و‬
‫ﻧﻘﺪي‬‫ﺟﺮﯾﺎن‬
Cash Flow
‫ارزش‬‫ﻓﻌﻠﯽ‬‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬:‫ﻓﻠﺴﻔﻪ‬
3
3 =
(1 + )
‫ﻓﻌﻠﯽ‬‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬‫ارزش‬:‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ‬
= + + + + ⋯
= +
( )
+
( )
+
( )
+
( )
+…
Net Present Value
‫ﻓﻌﻠﯽ‬‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬‫ارزش‬:‫ﭼﯽ؟‬‫ﯾﻌﻨﯽ‬
‫ﺑ‬ ‫ﭘﺮوژه‬ ‫ﺧﯿﺎل‬‫ﺑﯽ‬ ‫ﮔﯿﺮي‬‫ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﺪ‬‫ﺸﯽ؟‬
‫اﺻﺎﻟﺖ‬ ‫واﻗﻌﯽ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮم‬...
‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬‫آدم‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬‫ارزش‬
‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬‫از‬‫آﻧﭽﻪ‬‫اﻫﻨﺪ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺧ‬‫ﻣﯽ‬
‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮ‬‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬‫ارزش‬‫ﭘﺮوﻓﺎﯾﻞ‬
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
NPV($)
i (%)
NPV Profile
NPV > 0 NPV < 0
IRR
‫اﺧﻠﯽ‬‫د‬‫ﺑﺎزده‬‫ﻧﺮخ‬:‫ﻓﻠﺴﻔﻪ‬
‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫رﯾﺎﺿﯽ‬ ‫ي‬‫ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﯾﮏ‬ ‫ﺟﻮاب‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻂ‬!
‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ُﻌﺪ‬‫ﺑ‬ ‫ﺑﺪون‬ ‫ﻋﺪد‬ ‫ﯾﮏ‬.
‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬ ‫ﻋﺪد‬ ‫ﯾﮏ‬ ‫ﭘﺮوژه‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬.
‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺪاﺷﺘﻪ‬ ‫وﺟﻮد‬ ‫ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ‬‫ﻣﯽ‬!
‫اﺧﻠﯽ‬‫د‬‫ﺑﺎزده‬‫ﻧﺮخ‬:‫ادﻫﺎ‬‫ﺮ‬‫اﯾ‬
‫آي‬‫ﺧﯿﺎﻧﺖ‬‫و‬‫ﺧﺪﻣﺖ‬‫در‬.‫آر‬.‫آر‬
‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﯾ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ‬‫ﺴﻪ‬
‫اﺷﺘﺒﺎه‬ ‫اﻣﮑﺎن‬
‫ﮔ‬‫وﯾﺮان‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺎت‬‫ﺮ‬
+
-
‫ﺳﺮ‬‫ﺑﻪ‬‫ﺳﺮ‬‫ﻧﻘﻄﻪ‬:‫ﻓﻠﺴﻔﻪ‬
‫ﺳ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﺮ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﻄﻪ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ي‬‫دوره‬‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬‫ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ‬:‫ﻓﻠﺴﻔﻪ‬
Accumulative CF
‫زﻣﺎﻧﯽ‬‫ﮐﻞ‬ ‫ﮐﻪ‬‫ﻫﺎي‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬‫ﮐﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺻﻮرت‬
‫ﻣﺴﺎوي‬ ‫ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﮐﺴﺐ‬ ‫درآﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬‫ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‬‫ﻣﯽ‬.
‫ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫ﮐﻠﯿﺪ‬
‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﺺ‬ ‫ارزش‬
‫ﻣﻌﯿﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﯾﻦ‬‫اﺻﯿﻞ‬‫ر‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺘﻪ‬‫ﮔﺬار‬
‫ﭘﻮل‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺲ‬ ‫از‬
‫داﺧﻠ‬ ‫ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﺮخ‬‫ﯽ‬
‫ﻣﻌﯿﺎر‬ ‫ﺗﺮﯾﻦ‬‫ﺳﺎده‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺎ‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬
‫ﭘﺮوژ‬ ‫ذات‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺘﻪ‬‫ه‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪون‬ ‫ﻋﺪد‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺲ‬ ‫از‬
‫ﺳﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﺮ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﻄﻪ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﯽ‬ ‫دﺷﻮاري‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮ‬ ،‫ﮐﻤﺘﺮ‬ ‫ﻫﺮﭼﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺲ‬ ‫از‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﯿﺰان‬
‫ي‬‫دوره‬‫ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﮐﻠﯿﺪي‬ ‫ﻣﻌﯿﺎر‬
‫ﮔﺬار‬‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮ‬ ،‫زودﺗﺮ‬ ‫ﻫﺮﭼﻪ‬
‫زﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺲ‬ ‫از‬
‫آﭼﺎر‬‫ﺑﻪ‬‫دﺳﺖ‬
‫ي‬‫ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ‬‫اول‬:‫ﻧﺰول‬‫ﭘﻮل‬‫ﻗﯿﻤﺖ‬
•‫ﻣﺎه‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﭘﻮل‬ ‫ﺳﻮد‬:5‫درﺻﺪ‬
•‫ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻮد‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫اﻗﺴﺎﻃﯽ‬ ‫ﻓﺮوش‬2.5‫درﺻﺪ‬
‫ي‬‫ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ‬‫دوم‬:‫ﻣﺴﮑﻦ‬‫ﺑﺎﻧﮏ‬‫ام‬‫و‬ ‫درﯾﺎﻓﺖ‬
•‫ودﯾﻌﻪ‬:80‫ﺳﺎل‬ ‫ﯾﮏ‬ ‫ﻣﺪت‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬
•‫ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫اﻗﺴﺎط‬:1.160.000‫ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬
•‫ﺑﺎزﭘﺮداﺧﺖ‬ ‫ي‬‫دوره‬:12‫ﺳﺎﻟﻪ‬
•‫وام‬ ‫ﮐﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﻠﻎ‬:160‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬
‫ي‬‫ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ‬‫ﺳﻮم‬:‫ﺧﻮدرو‬‫ﺧﺮﯾﺪ‬
•34‫ﻣـﺎه‬ ‫ﻫـﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻌـﺪي‬ ‫ﻣﺎه‬ ‫دو‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻧﺎم؛‬‫ﺛﺒﺖ‬ ‫زﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬
17‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬
•‫ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫اﻗﺴﺎط‬:2.200.000‫ﻣﺎه‬ ‫دو‬ ‫ﭘﺮداﺧﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬
‫ﺑﺎر‬‫ﯾﮏ‬
•‫ﺑﺎزﭘﺮداﺧﺖ‬ ‫ي‬‫دوره‬:24‫ﻣﺎﻫﻪ‬
•‫ﻧﻘﺪي‬ ‫ﻗﯿﻤﺖ‬:108‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬
‫ي‬‫ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ‬‫ﭼﻬﺎرم‬:‫اﯾﻨﺘﺮﻧﺘﯽ‬‫ﮐﺎر‬‫و‬‫ﮐﺴﺐ‬
•‫ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬ ‫ي‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬:2‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬
•‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬ ‫ي‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬)‫ﺗـﺎ‬5000‫ﯾـﻮزر‬:(1000‫ﺑـﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻣـﺎن‬
‫ﯾﻮزر‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ازاي‬
•‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬ ‫ي‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬)‫از‬5000‫ﯾﻮزر‬:(500‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬‫ازاي‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﯾﻮزر‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬
•‫ﯾﻮزر‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫از‬ ‫درآﻣﺪ‬:1500‫ﺗﻮﻣﺎن‬
‫ي‬‫ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ‬‫ﭘﻨﺠﻢ‬:‫اري‬‫ﺬ‬‫ﮔ‬‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬‫ﻣﻮرد‬‫دو‬‫ي‬‫ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ‬
•‫ﺳﻮم‬ ‫ي‬‫ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺋﯿﺎت‬
•‫ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ‬1:‫اﺑﺘﺪا‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﮔﺬار‬‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬20‫ﭘﺮداﺧـﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬
‫و‬ ‫ﮐﻨﺪ‬‫ﻣﯽ‬50%‫ﮐﻨﺪ‬‫ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ‬ ‫را‬ ‫درآﻣﺪ‬ ‫از‬.
•‫ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ‬2:‫را‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬‫ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﻧﯿﻤﯽ‬ ‫ﻣﺎه‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﮔﺬار‬‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‬
‫و‬ ‫ﮐﻨــﺪ‬‫ﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﭘﺮداﺧــﺖ‬60%‫ﺑﺮداﺷــﺖ‬ ‫را‬ ‫درآﻣــﺪ‬ ‫از‬
‫ﮐﻨﺪ‬‫ﻣﯽ‬.
‫دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ‬‫ﻫﺎي‬‫اه‬‫ر‬
@MZargarpour
@MZargarpour
m.zargarpour@gmail.com
Maisam Zargarpour
@MZargarpour Zargarpour.ir

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