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(1)Chris J. Czerkawski, Theoretical and Policy-Oriented Aspects of the External Debt Economics ([Berlin]:
Springer-Verlag Berlin; Heidelberg GmbH & Co. KG, 1991).
(2)Dani Rodrik, «Debt Management in Turkey: Any Lessons for Latin America?,» paper presented at:
World Bank/EDI Senior Policy Seminar on «Latin America: Facing the Challenges of Adjustment
and Growth,» Caracas, Venezuela, 19-22 July 1992.
(3)James D. Hamilton and Marjorie Flavin, «On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A
Framework for Empirical Testing,» American Economic Review, vol. 76, no. 4 (September 1986),
pp. 808-819.
(4)Y. Sawada, «Are the Heavily Indebted Countries Solvent? Tests of Intertemporal Borrowing
Constraints,» Journal of Development Economics, vol. 45, no. 2 (1994), pp. 325-337.
(5)Alfred Greiner and Willi Semmler, «An Inquiry into the Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy:
Some Time-Series Tests,» Public Finance Review, vol. 27, no. 2 (1999), pp. 220-236.
(6)Frederico G. Jayme, External Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence in Brazil (Cedeplar: UFMG,
2001).
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GyvvgvvQ<vv,yvvzvvAvvMvvavv+vvb,1989),hPedro Alba, Sherine Al-Shawarby and Farrukh Iqbal, «Fiscal and Public
Debt Sustainability in Egypt,» (MENA Working Paper Series; no. 38, World Bank, September 2004).
<J(KGsAZ9O*?fQ<+?36GygOO42/Q<+h2008

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Transmission Mechanism Part I: Fixed Exchange Rates,» (Research Discussion Paper Series; 76,
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(9)M. De Melo, «Fiscal Adjustment in High-Debt Countries,» Ricerche economiche, nos. 2-3 (1990),
pp. 251-272.
<J(KGsAZ9O*?fQ<+?38GygOO42/Q<+h2008

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(10)International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, «The Challenge of Maintaining Long-Term
External Debt Sustainability,» (Staff Working Paper, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001).
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(11)Ibrahim Elbadawi, Benno Ndulu and Njuguna Ndung'u, «Debt Overhang and Economic Growth in
Sub-Saharan Africa,» paper presented at: External Finance for Low-Income Countries (conference),
edited by Zubair Iqbal and Ravi Kanbur (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund (IMF),
1997).
(12)Sebastian Edwards: «Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability,» (Working Paper; 8939, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, May 2002), and «Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability,»
Review of World Economics, vol. 139, no. 1 (March 2003).
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(13)William Cline, «HIPC Debt Sustainability and Post-relief Lending Policy,» (Issue Paper on Debt
Sustainability, HIPC Unit, World Bank), <http://cgdev.axion-it.net/docs/Cline_Debt.pdf>.
(14)Claudio M. Loser, «External Debt Sustainability: Guidelines for Low-and Middle-Income
Countries,» (G-24 Discussion Paper Series; no. 26, United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development (UNCTAD), March 2004).
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GyvAvMvqv+v^GNFv}v9yv,Eyv)50<v9yv}v8v?|v#Gyvtv+v}v?GyvJv9yv+v?yvzvO*v#<vJvzv(dChd@v}v(R/*v(yv+v(1994
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GyvgvTvwvQ*v?yv}vZvQ,!vAv+vGv?|v(svqv%v9pv,IvQH@vJvQ*vQGyvwv(*vB.hvv9f|v#!vAv+vGv?Pyvx@vMvqv+v^IvGv~
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(18)Hamilton and Flavin, «On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical
Testing;» Sawada, «Are the Heavily Indebted Countries Solvent? Tests of Intertemporal Borrowing
Constraints,» and Jayme, External Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence in Brazil.
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Gyvv}vvgvv9Oyvv?(1)|vvAvv"vv9cvvQIGyvvAvvwvv9|vv{,hCf@vvwvv(f(b=1).hfvvzvv)Pyvvxpvv{fGyvvMvvavv(IG}hyvv)@vvwvv(f<vv{FvvQGA
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Yv9pv,GyvO*v#GyvMv9QFv,,hQYv+vOGyv}v+vRGfGyvAvGv9Qj(GyvZv9OQGJvvvvGyv(GQOGJ).h@vAv(GpvQ$vPgGyv=v+v9!v9J
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Q<vvhSvv"vv(*vv?fvv#GyvvqvvAvvQIGyvvTvv9<vvtvv?yvvzvvgvv9eGyvv}vv9yvv,1999/2000,h$vv(|vv9*vvGvvgvv{EFvv}vv9yvv,Gyvv}vvWvv9$vvOGJ
Gyvv}vvAvv9Ivv?pvv,$vvPgGyvvJvv9yvv?25|vvWvv9$vvOIpvvtvvb,<vv9Nvv9pvv?Eyvv)CfGyvv}vvWvv9$vvOGJQ<vvhGyvvTvv"vv(*vv?:@vvjvvavv,
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yz=(Gs,p,Gy}g9Oy?.
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yz}g9Oy?(2)<9SAMOGe|g+9Q(AIC) Akaike.
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(1970vvvv2005).
h*;IeCfGy}g9O:JGy}TAMO|?p,GyAtO*Q$,fz)GyA(Gy,:
D xt = b xt-1 mtGy}g9Oy?Ohf|tahChG@G9gR|",
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D xt = a + b xt-1 mtGy}g9Oy?<{OL9d|tahOhfG@G9gR|",
D xt = a + b xt-1 + dT + mtGy}g9Oy?<{OL9d|tahhG@G9gR|",
I+ED|Wj{GyqQhbG}hy),xGy}Aj+Q|J{G:LA=9Q.
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(1970vvvv2005)
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-1,257610 -1,782109 0,204225 DET GLA=9QGyAw9|{|#GyOQF?YqQ
-2,138680 -2,077259 -1,772989 TB
-1,543418 2,139613 1,762005 GDP
-3,5468 -2,9499 -1,9510 Gyt+~GyJQF?y;LA=9Qf"O5<9y}8?
-3,06647 -2,767483 -2,562658 DET GLA=9QGyAw9|{|#GyOQF?G}hy)
-3,745962 -3,852 982 -3,934763 TB
-2,769743 -2,627557 0,978674 GDP
-3,5514 vvvv2,9527 vvvv1,9514 Gyt+~GyJQF?y;LA=9Qf"O5<9y}8?
hGyvtv+v~Gyv}vOh!v?pv,GyvGvOhd@vgv=vQfv#sv+v}v?EIvZv9At-StatisticGyv}vtv9<v{yvzv}vgvzv}v?bGyv}vtvOQIpv,
vvv{
q
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yt=(dChQp^GyqQVGygO|,<(F(OFPhQhIOIp,Gy=+9!9J.
|vvv#GyvvvGvvvOhdGyvvvQsvvv~(3),@vvv=vvv+vvv#!vvvAvvv9FvvvHG:LvvvAvvv=vvv9QGJC!
q
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pvv,|vv9*vvzvv,!vvtvv(e<vvAvvavv=vv+vvu_vvQ*vvtvv?(Engle-Granger)fvvzvv)Gyvv=vv+vv9!vv9J:LvvAvv=vv9QpvvQVCfGyvvTvv;Svv{
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<J(KGsAZ9O*?fQ<+?47GygOO42/Q<+h2008

14.
pv,Gyv}vQIvzv?G}hyv):!v(FvO|vAvGv&@v"v9cvQGyvAvwv9|v{(Ch|vAvGv&Gyv}vAvjv+vQGJGyv}vAvwv9|vzv?)GyvPj*v}vDv{
Gyvvvgvvv;svvv?_vvv(*vvvzvvv?G}Fvvv{<vvv+vvv#Gyvvv}vvvAvvvjvvv+vvvQGJGyvvv}vvvJvvvOOI.h*vvvAvvv~@vvvtvvvO*vvvQg<vvv{*vvvGvvv9OG!vvvJvvvOGQEFvvv}vvv9yvvv,GyvvvO*vvv(f
GyM9QF+?fz)QY+OGy}+RGfGyAG9QjhGy"9@HGy}Jz,GNF}9y,.hv9!B!A9FHGyAtO*Qv}9*z,:
DETt = -6.646 - 0.80609 TBt + 0.6707 GDP
(-1.76600) (-1.0458) (8.1360)
n = 36 R
2
= 0.7266 ser = 6.98 DW = 0.1235
F = 34.5527
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<J(KGsAZ9O*?fQ<+?48GygOO42/Q<+h2008

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197219524000001.45E+096.29E+08-46468291210162250241.52E+0916659828736
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197548354001923.63E+091.55E+09-242599987225030000645.14E+0918731352064
197663573002244.63E+092.54E+09-136300006433190000645.18E+0921471234048
1977117334999047.05E+092.94E+09-145600000038880000005.88E+0924227487744
1978128577996808.98E+092.85E+09-136099993640990000646.61E+0925627764736
1979149057996801.06E+104.05E+09-191500006454010019848.78E+0927175389184
1980191306997761.47E+104.73E+09-43790000062463022089.16E+0929896009728
1981220775997441.81E+103.74E+09-213630003265356999681.04E+1031018928128
1982273318993922.2E+103.94E+09-253230003263378022401.03E+1034092025856
1983302350991362.48E+105.73E+09-152220006466823992321.08E+1036615221248
1984321874001922.62E+105.21E+09-250449996868477009921.23E+1038845648896
1985361020989442.97E+104.34E+09-320880000068656988161.26E+1041410256896
1986398550999043.26E+103.12E+09-335719987264938019841.18E+1042506207232
1987440960983043.75E+108.17E+09-92430003256671001609.47E+0943577118720
1988460838010883.9E+105.58E+09-54460000072245002241.17E+1045887021056
1989456107008003.76E+105.45E+09-46870000082162001921.25E+1048168693760
1990329469009922.84E+101.11E+10-63400000091507998721.37E+1050915155968
1991325431009282.93E+105.66E+091373200000105228001281.39E+1051464445952
1992310664990722.83E+101.1E+103752600064118430003201.29E+1053746122752
1993305086996482.83E+101.02E+104856200192122288998401.45E+1055294730240
1994323139993603.02E+108.9E+09191200000109427998721.43E+1057477771264
1995332662005763.08E+101.11E+10386100000128874997761.68E+1060159246336
1996312995000322.89E+101.1E+10-184000000134159994881.77E+1063173001216
1997298496000002.69E+101.49E+10119000000145339996161.95E+1066642690048
1998319641006082.77E+105.66E+09-2762000128135020001282.18E+1070360948736
1999282240000002.75E+101.1E+10-2301990102150859298821.45E+1074286663751
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2002286600000002.65E+101.11E+10-4154040179171153999871.77E+1087427559879
200329396.200002.76E+101.1E+10-4771390205177918900221.95E+1092305488484
2004298718000002.74E+101.49E+10-5388740230184683800582.18E+1097455575976
200528948.8000002.77E+101.1E+10-6006090256191448700932.18E+101.02893E+11
Gy}ZOQ:World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI) Database, CD-ROM, 2006.
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