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Emerging Trends and Foresight by Maggie Greyson

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How might we plan for the future if the future is blurry, menacing and unknowable? Using foresight methodology, we can survey the landscape to look for emerging trends. This is one of the fundamentals of futures work. We take a strategic approach to evaluating interesting projects, policies, businesses, products, etc. to identify relevant opportunities or threats. We also consider things that many not at first seem relevant, but that could really throw a wrench into things.
Futurists sometimes build scenarios to help you understand the concept of an uncertain future. These stories can be brought to life with design fiction -- artifacts and experiences that help you to visualize something that doesn't yet exist -- they are prototypes of the future.
Feel the future, don't fear the future.

Published in: Leadership & Management
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Emerging Trends and Foresight by Maggie Greyson

  1. 1. 1 Gazing into the Future Maggie Greyson June 2, 2017
  2. 2. 2 MDes Strategic Foresight and Innovation Futurist Strategic Designer Art School dropout Maggie Greyson
  3. 3. 3 THE DISTANT FUTURE IS unknown
  4. 4. 4 THE DISTANT FUTURE IS unknown blurry
  5. 5. 5 THE DISTANT FUTURE IS UNKNOWN blurry menacing
  6. 6. 6 1955 Fortune Magazine listed the 500 largest companies in a list that has become synonymous with success. 60 years later only 71 of those companies still remain.
  7. 7. 7 Share moments, Share life 1892 Kodak was founded by George Eastman credited with inventing the first photographic film in roll form 1975 Kodak invented the digital camera January 19, 2012
  8. 8. 8 Netflix sent videos that you would have rented through Blockbuster straight to your home without due dates or late fees. Blockbuster was unconcerned and even had the opportunity to buy Netflix for $50 million in 2000. make it a blockbuster night
  9. 9. Foresight champions and frameworks innovation & Systems thinking trends & emerging trends uncertainty strategic planning 9
  10. 10. 10 The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented. From the book “Inventing the Future” written by Dennis Gabor who was later awarded a Nobel Prize in Physics for his work in holography.
  11. 11. 11 Pablo Picasso, Artist
  12. 12. 12 albert Einstein, Theoretical Physicist
  13. 13. 13 Buckminster Fuller, Architect
  14. 14. 14 Mary Jackson, NASA Engineer
  15. 15. 15 Col. Chris Hadfield, Canadian Astronaut
  16. 16. 16 Heather Reisman, indigo Founder and CEO
  17. 17. Foresight champions and frameworks innovation & Systems thinking trends & emerging trends uncertainty strategic planning 17
  18. 18. 18 policy horizons canada foresight Framework
  19. 19. 19 World Economic Forum Future of Jobs and Skills in Africa Four Scenarios 1. Mad Max 2. Transparently Blurred 3. Turbulence and Trust Deficits 4. Privatized World
  20. 20. 20 arup foresight and innovation Report: Cities Alive - Rethinking greeni nfrastructure
  21. 21. 21 arup foresight and innovation Report: Cities Alive - Rethinking greeni nfrastructure
  22. 22. 22 shell foresight scenarios since the 1970’s Prepared for an oil shock A vision of post-apartheid South Africa Responding to AIDS Energy-water-food
  23. 23. 23 Volkswagen Group Strategy 2025
  24. 24. 24 ontario college of art and design university strategic innovation lab (Slab)
  25. 25. 25 Uncertain futures
  26. 26. 26 Uncertain futures
  27. 27. 27 Clarifies planning assumptions Identifies emerging policy challenges and opportunities Develops more robust policy and strategy Helps individuals and organizations prepare and rehearse for change. results
  28. 28. Foresight champions and frameworks innovation & Systems thinking trends & emerging trends uncertainty strategic planning 28
  29. 29. 29 how is innovation like a garden?
  30. 30. 30 how is innovation like a forest?
  31. 31. 31 You’ve got to think about big things while you’re doing small things, so that all the small things go in the right direction. “Future Shock” by Alvin Toffler
  32. 32. Foresight champions and frameworks innovation & Systems thinking trends & emerging trends uncertainty strategic planning 32
  33. 33. 33 start with trends we know
  34. 34. 34 iphone is Here to stay
  35. 35. 35 the light phone a signal of change?
  36. 36. 36 United Nation's population projections by world region Japan’s Demographic Time Bomb simultaneous futures
  37. 37. 37 weak signals esight
  38. 38. 38 emerging trends “i can do it”
  39. 39. 39
  40. 40. 40 Fad trend
  41. 41. 41 mega trend “let’s chat” Traditional marketing tries to draw clients to you
  42. 42. 42 mega trend “let’s chat” now People are expecting to interact with you in the way they want
  43. 43. Foresight champions and frameworks innovation & Systems thinking trends & emerging trends uncertainty strategic planning 43
  44. 44. 44 Aimee mullins, Record-Breaking Paralympian, l’oreal
  45. 45. 45 This is Joy. her software can’t see her
  46. 46. 46
  47. 47. 47 susur lee, canadian iron chef
  48. 48. 48
  49. 49. Foresight champions and frameworks innovation & Systems thinking trends & emerging trends uncertainty strategic planning 49
  50. 50. 50 Probing the limits of our current reality and Making new realities possible
  51. 51. 51 megatrend open everything
  52. 52. 52 F R E E WW A T E R CONCESSION STAND NESTLE WATERS CONCESSION STAND GIVE YOUR THUMBPRINT TO NESTLE IN EXCHANGE FOR TWO FREE GLASSES OF WATER PER DAY. feel the future, don’t fear the future experiential futures
  53. 53. 53 conclusion
  54. 54. 54
  55. 55. 55 what’s the cost in not exploring plausible futures? the future is not unknowable, menacing and blurry You are supported by foresight champions and frameworks look broadly and be aware of the dynamic system evaluate multiple futures get comfortable with uncertainty mindset
  56. 56. 56 An Introduction to Corporate Foresight POLICY CHALLENGE: An issue that current policies or institutions may not be ready or able to address. downloads
  57. 57. 57 thank you for today and tomorrow

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