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case report-Vertex Pharmaceuticals ROV metrics

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case report-Vertex Pharmaceuticals ROV metrics

  1. 1. Case ReportVertex Pharmaceuticals: R&D PortfolioManagement (A)ROV metrics
  2. 2. ROV Metrics VX-148 VX-702 VX-765 VX-950Indication Pasoriasis ACS RA & CA HCVPhase Phase II Phase II Phase I Preclinical (2H’07) (1H’09) (2H’08) (2H’09)Cost $100MM $300MM $600MM $220MMProb. Approval 75% 50% 75% 80%Profit $400MM $355MM $220MM $395MMCharacter 牛皮癬; 急性心血管; 類風濕性關節及 C型肝炎; 81萬(約1%, 每年190萬美國 退化性關節; 每年約8,000 270萬美國居 居民; 2100萬美國居民; ~10,000因此病死 民中的30%;) 可納入依療保 VX-74 亡, 270美國居民 VX-944, VX- 險; 隱憂:Aventis 合 罹患慢性 HCV, 497 VX-850 夥關係, 高研發成 全球1.85億; 本; Alpha 干擾素可 VX-740 能增加成本;
  3. 3. QUESTIONS1. WHICH OF THE PROJECT PORTFOLIO OPTIONS CURRENTLY FACINGVERTEX DO YOU FAVOR? SPECIALLY, WHICH TWO PROJECTS WOULDYOU ADVANCE IN DEVELOPMENT? WOULD YOU LICENSE OUT THETWO OTHERS NOT CHOSEN OR KEEP THEM AS BACK-UP?2. WHAT CRITERIA WOULD YOU USE TO MAKE THE DECISION?WHAT OTHER INFORMATION, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK BOGER NEEDSTO MAKE THE DECISION?3. WHAT APPROACH SHOULD BE USED TO MAKE A DECISION LIKETHIS? HOW MUCH SHOULD VERTEX MANAGEMENT RELY ONQUANTITATIVE METHODOLOGIES (SUCH AS REAL OPTIONVALUATION) VERSUS MORE QUALITATIVE APPROACHES? HOWSHOULD A COMPANY VALUE INVESTMENTS IN PROJECTS LIKETHESE, WHICH ENTAIL AN EXTREMELY HIGH DEGREE OFUNCERTAINTY? WHAT MANAGEMENT PROCESS SHOULD BE USED?

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