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وجهة نظر مكين في انخفاض العمله الصينية وأثرها

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وجهة نظر مكين كابيتال عن أثر إنخفاض اليوان على قطاع البتروكيماويات
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وجهة نظر مكين في انخفاض العمله الصينية وأثرها

  1. 1. 68% 24% 4% 4% 0.00 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 2015/1/42015/1/52015/1/62015/1/72015/1/8 ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ (‫)اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض‬ ‫أﺛﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻌﻮدي‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻮق‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ (‫)اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻬﺪف‬‫ﺑﺸﺄن‬ ‫اﻟﻔﻴﺪراﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺮدد‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻌﻮدي‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻳﺎل‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض‬ ‫ﺧﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻬﺪف‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪة‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻت‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺪى‬ ‫ﺧﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻬﺪف‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺸﻴﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺬي‬ ‫اﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺗﻔﻊ‬ (‫)اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺒﺐ‬ ‫اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع‬ ‫ذﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﻛﺎن‬ ‫و‬ ,‫ﺗﺮاﺟﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺿﺮورة‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻮق‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻀﺮر‬ ‫و‬ .ً‫أﻳﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ‬ ‫ﻛﺎن‬ ‫اﻟﺬي‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫ﺻﺮف‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻌﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻌﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﺟﻌﻞ‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع‬ ‫ﻫﺬا‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪرﻳﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺎدرات‬ ‫ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ذﻟﻚ‬ ‫أدى‬ ‫و‬ ,‫اﻟﺨﺎرج‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫أﻏﻠﻰ‬ .‫ﻳﻮﻟﻴﻮ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ 8.3% ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ ‫ﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺸﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎوﻻت‬ ‫ﻓﺸﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺮات‬ ‫ﺛﻼث‬ ‫ﺣﺪﺛﺖ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪة‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻت‬ ‫ﺧﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﻨﻚ‬ ‫ﻟﺠﺄ‬ ,‫ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ‬ 27 ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﺧﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺎن‬ 2015 ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫أﻏﺴﻄﺲ‬ 12 ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﻀﻪ‬ ‫و‬ ,‫أﻏﺴﻄﺲ‬ 11 ‫ﻓﻲ‬ 1.9% ‫ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬ : ً‫أوﻻ‬ ,‫ﻟﻌﻤﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﺪﻓﺎن‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ‬ .1.6% ‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫دﻋﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫اﻟﺸﻬﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﻀﺖ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺻﺎدراﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫دﻋﻢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ً‫ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﺠﺤﺖ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ,‫ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻫﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﻃﺊ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻷزﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺮف‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﺻﺎدراﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻬﺪف‬ :ً‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‬ .‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫ذﻟﻚ‬ ‫دﻋﻢ‬ ‫و‬ ,‫ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﺘﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫ﺗﺠﺎه‬ ‫اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق‬ ‫اﻧﺘﺒﺎه‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﺖ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ,‫اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼت‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺔ‬ ‫دﺧﻮل‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻼت‬ ‫ﻫﺬه‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﺑﻤﺎ‬ ‫و‬ .‫اﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ,‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮﻟﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺠﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫و‬ ,‫اﻟﻴﻮرو‬ ‫اﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻴﺎت‬ ‫اﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ 92.2% ‫ﺗﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫اﻷرﺑﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫اﻧﻀﻤﺎم‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﺗﺮى‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﺈن‬ ,‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﻨﻮك‬ ‫ﻟﺪى‬ .‫ﻟﻠﺘﺪاول‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫أﻛﺜﺮ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﺤﻮل‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺠﻌﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺬه‬ ‫ﺷﺮوط‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺤﺚ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫وﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ً‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮا‬ ‫اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻜﻨﺖ‬ ‫و‬ .‫اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼت‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫اﻧﻀﻤﺎم‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫اﻟﺸﺮط‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ 2011 ‫ﻋﺎم‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ .‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺎت‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺪر‬ ‫ﺛﺎﻟﺚ‬ ‫أﻛﺒﺮ‬ ‫أﺻﺒﺤﺖ‬ ‫ﺗﺪاول‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫اﻻﺧﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺸﺮط‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﻌﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺪاوﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫و‬ ,‫واﺳﻊ‬ ‫ﻧﻄﺎق‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮن‬ ‫أن‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ً‫ﻣﺰﻳﺪا‬ ‫اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق‬ ‫أﺗﺎح‬ ‫و‬ .‫اﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﺮف‬ ‫أﺳﻮاق‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻐﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ‬ (2016 ‫دﻳﺴﻤﺒﺮ‬ 30 ‫ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ‬ ‫)ﺣﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬ ‫أﻣﺎم‬ ‫اﻷﻛﺒﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﺋﻖ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺠﻴﻮﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻷﻣﻮر‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺪ‬ ‫و‬ .‫اﻟﻌﺎﺋﻖ‬ ‫ذﻟﻚ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻴﺎﺑﺎن‬ ‫ﺗﺮدد‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺒﺐ‬ ,‫اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼت‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫اﻧﻀﻤﺎم‬ ‫و‬ .‫اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺮار‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺬا‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺣﺐ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻲ‬ ‫أوروﺑﺎ‬ ‫أﻣﺎ‬ ,‫اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة‬ ‫اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰة‬ ‫ﺻﺎدراﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻤﻨﺢ‬ (‫)اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻔﻴﺾ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة‬ ‫اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﺟﻌﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺬي‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮ‬ ,‫اﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﺘﻀﺮ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺸﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻚ‬ ‫ﺻﺮح‬ ‫و‬ ,‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻼﻋﺐ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﺟﺎءت‬ ‫و‬ .‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة‬ ‫ﻫﺬه‬ ‫ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻀﻐﻂ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬ ‫واﺷﻨﻄﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫و‬ 7% ‫ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﻟﺪﻋﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺬه‬ ‫اذا‬ ‫و‬ ,2015 ‫ﺳﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻞ‬ ً‫ﻫﺪﻓﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫وﺿﻌﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ‬ ,‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺪﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫رﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﺠﺤﺖ‬ ,‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻃﻠﺐ‬ ‫ارﺗﻔﺎع‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺒﺐ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻔﻂ‬ ‫أﺳﻌﺎر‬ ‫ﺗﺘﺤﺴﻦ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﻧﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻘﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﺬﻟﻚ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت‬ ‫أﺳﻌﺎر‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺴﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺮوض‬ ‫زﻳﺎدة‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺎل‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻷﺳﻮاق‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﻴﻄﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻠﻖ‬ ‫اﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼت‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺔ‬ .2014 ‫ﻋﺎم‬ ‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺬﻫﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬ ‫دوﻻر‬ ‫ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻮن‬ 12 ‫ب‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺘﻔﻆ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﻨﻮك‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻘﻮد‬ ‫ﺳﻮق‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫أﻣﺎم‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻌﻮدي‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻳﺎل‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﺾ‬ ‫رﻳﺎل‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﺎر‬ 20 ‫ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺪات‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫أﺻﺪرت‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪﻣﺎ‬ ,‫اﻵﺟﻠﺔ‬ 7 ,1.92% ‫ﻓﺎﺋﺪة‬ ‫ﺑﻤﻌﺪل‬ ‫ﺳﻨﻮات‬ 5 ,‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻵﺟﺎل‬ (‫دوﻻر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﺎر‬ 5.3) ‫و‬ ,2.65% ‫ﻓﺎﺋﺪة‬ ‫ﺑﻤﻌﺪل‬ ‫ﺳﻨﻮات‬ 10 ,2.34% ‫ﻓﺎﺋﺪة‬ ‫ﺑﻤﻌﺪل‬ ‫ﺳﻨﻮات‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪوق‬ ‫ﻗﺪرﻫﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮازﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺠﺰ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻄﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﻋﺪة‬ ‫ذﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺒﻴﻊ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫و‬ .2015 ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫دوﻻر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﺎر‬ 150 ‫ﺑﻨﺤﻮ‬ ‫اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺣﺘﻰ‬ ً‫ﺷﻬﺮﻳﺎ‬ ‫رﻳﺎل‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﺎر‬ 20 ‫ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻨﺪات‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺰﻳﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ‬ .2015 ‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬ ‫أﺳﻌﺎر‬ ‫رﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺟﻴﻞ‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ارﺗﻔﻌﺖ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮار‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ 2015 ‫ﺳﺒﺘﻤﺒﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫رﻓﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻔﻴﺪراﻟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪة‬ .‫اﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫ارﺗﻔﺎع‬ ‫ﻋﺪة‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ً‫ﻣﺘﺄﺛﺮا‬ ‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻪ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺮوض‬ ‫زﻳﺎدة‬ ‫و‬ ,‫اﻟﻨﻔﻂ‬ ‫اﺳﻌﺎر‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض‬ : ً‫أوﻻ‬ ,‫ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺷﻨﻐﻬﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‬ ‫ﺧﺴﺎرة‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ :ً‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‬ .‫اﻟﻨﻔﻂ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻹﻳﺮان‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻤﺎح‬ ‫ﺗﺒﺎﻃﺆ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﺄن‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺎوف‬ ‫زادت‬ ,‫ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ 30% ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫أﻛﺜﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺸﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻚ‬ ‫ﺧﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ :ً‫أﺧﻴﺮا‬ .‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫اﻟﻮاردة‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﺘﺮﺗﻔﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﺪر‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎت‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﺑﻤﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ,‫ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻴﻞ‬ ‫أﻛﺒﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺪوﻻر‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎت‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﺄن‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎوف‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻨﺎك‬ ,‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎت‬ .‫أرﺑﺎﺣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ,‫اﻟﻤﻘﺒﻠﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻤﺎ‬ ,‫اﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻮة‬ ‫ﺿﻌﻒ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻮان‬ ‫ﻓﻀﻌﻒ‬ .‫ﺿﻌﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺼﺒﺢ‬ ‫اﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻃﻠﺐ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ 95.00 96.00 97.00 98.00 99.00 100.00 101.00 102.00 103.00 104.00 ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻧﺨﻔﺎض‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
  2. 2. ‫اﻟﺼﺤﺮاء‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻜﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎء‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺔ‬ ,ً‫ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ‬ ‫آﺳﻴﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ً‫ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﺪر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺘﺎن‬ ,‫ﺷﺮﻛﺔ‬ 14 ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﻳﺸﻤﻞ‬ . .‫ﻟﻠﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‬ ‫ﻫﺬه‬ ‫أﺳﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺎر‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬب‬ ‫ﻧﺮى‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻨﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ,‫اﻷﻛﺒﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺜﻞ‬ ‫آﺳﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫أﺳﻮاق‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺘﻬﺪف‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎت‬ ‫ﺑﻘﻴﺔ‬. .‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‬ ‫ﻫﺬه‬ ‫ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎت‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض‬ ‫ﺗﺠﺎه‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎوف‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻜﺲ‬ ‫اﻟﺬي‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮ‬ ,‫ﻋﻤﻠﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺨﻔﺾ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫إﻋﻼن‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫اﻧﺨﻔﺎض‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎت‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺪى‬ %29 %57 %18 %71 %33 %37 %58 %45 %55 %29 %51 %13 %0 %10 %20 %30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %80 ‫ﻵﺳﻴﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺘﺮوﻛﻴﻤﺎوﻳﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎع‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎت‬ ‫ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎت‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺐ‬ 90.00 92.00 94.00 96.00 98.00 100.00 102.00 104.00 Jan05-Jan06-Jan07-Jan08-Jan09-Jan10-Jan11-Jan12- 96.00 97.00 98.00 99.00 100.00 101.00 102.00 103.00 104.00 Jan05-Jan06-Jan07-Jan08-Jan09-Jan10-Jan11-Jan12- 96.00 97.00 98.00 99.00 100.00 101.00 102.00 103.00 104.00 Jan05-Jan06-Jan07-Jan08-Jan09-Jan10-Jan11-Jan12- 95.00 96.00 97.00 98.00 99.00 100.00 101.00 102.00 103.00 104.00 Jan05-Jan06-Jan07-Jan08-Jan09-Jan10-Jan11-Jan12-
  3. 3. :For Enquires, Kindly Contact the Following Capital Markets Department Thamer Al-Saeed Head of Capital Markets 2837946 11 +966 t.saeed@maceen.com Important Informatio The authors of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal views regarding the securities and companies that are the subject of this document. The authors also certify that neither they nor their respective spouses or dependents (if relevant) hold a benefi- cial interest in the securities that are the subject of this document. Funds managed by Maceen Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Maceen Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, or funds or in funds managed by third parties The authors of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. The Investment Banking division of Maceen Capital may be in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that are either the subject of this document or are mentioned in this document. This document is issued to the person to whom Maceen Capital has issued it. This document is intended for general information purposes only, and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. This document is not intended to take into account any investment suitability needs of the recipient. In particular, this document is not customized to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk appetite or other needs of any person who may receive this document. Maceen Capital strongly advises every potential investor to seek professional legal, accounting and financial guidance when determining whether an investment in a security is appropriate to his or her needs. Any investment recommendations contained in this document take into account both risk and expected return. Information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at by Maceen Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Maceen Capital has not independently verified the contents of this document and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and regulation, Maceen Capital shall not be liable for any loss that may arise from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Any financial projections, fair value estimates and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. All opinions and estimates included in this document constitute Maceen Capital’s judgment as of the date of production of this document, and are subject to change without notice. Past performance of any investment is not indicative of future results. The value of securities, the income from them, the prices and currencies of securities, can go down as well as up. An investor may get back less than he or she originally invested. Additionally, fees may apply on investments in securities. Changes in currency rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of a security. No part of this docu- ment may be reproduced without the written permission of Maceen Capital. Neither this document nor any

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