Varietal improvement and conservation the economics of orchard renewal - david bell

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Varietal improvement and conservation the economics of orchard renewal - david bell

  1. 1. Thoughts onOrchard Replacement and it’s Challenges David Bell, HVP, 2012
  2. 2. Why would the Industry consider Orchard Replacement?• Not uncommon in other horticultural crops• Aust industry has 2 500 000 trees > 20 yrs• Old orchards are a brake on productivity gains … for given new technology : – in a 7 000 000 tree industry – if 1 000 000 trees only in new orchards adopt, this represents 12.5% of the potential gain. – Eventually younger industries will overtake us.
  3. 3. Why would Growers consider Orchard Replacement?• Orchards in Decline/AVG (in place of Tree Removal)• New Genetics, improvements in – Productivity, Pest/Disease Resistance, Quality• New Growing Systems
  4. 4. No Numbers Benefit/Cost Orchard No Action Tree Removal ReplacementBenefits None Management ProductivityCosts None Mod High HighLong Term Decline? Stable? GainProductivity
  5. 5. Estimate of Gross Gains Available• Productivity – Two Tonne Taskforce aiming for => +100% or 3t NIS/Ha or $7 500/Ha gross How many orchards have low yield ‘locked in’? – AMS breeding selections => G1 +30% or 1t NIS/Ha or $2 500/Ha gross G2 + 60% or 2t NIS/Ha or $5 000/Ha gross• Pest/Disease/Quality - AVG?
  6. 6. Estimate of Costs• Tree removal, ground prep => $5 000/Ha• Replanting => $7 500/Ha• Lost gross production income => eg 6 yrs @ 3t NIS/Ha => 18t NIS/Ha or $45 000/Ha gross
  7. 7. Implications of Lost Production Income• Given new tech that doubles Gross/Ha … but results in X years of lost production• Gross breakeven is roughly double X yrs Minimising the period of lost production is the critical factor for Orchard Replacement
  8. 8. R&D Environment of Continuous Improvement• Continuous replacement of a small portion of an orchard may be an option – in an R&D environment delivering 5% gain/Yr – replacing 5% of an orchard per year – results in 75% of an orchard gaining at 5% – should overtake ‘stable’ orchards after 10 yrs
  9. 9. Why do people Remove trees yet not Replace them?Based on 25% of Orchard Tree Orchard Removal ReplacementCost/Ha $5 000 $12 500Initial Yield Reduction 17% - 21%* 25%Years to Equal Production 6 – 10* 5-8Long Term Gain 0%* 15% ?* = McFadyen et al
  10. 10. Low Cost Planting (Sept 2011)
  11. 11. Low Cost Planting (Sept 2011)
  12. 12. Low Cost Planting (Sept 2012)
  13. 13. Low Cost Planting (Sept 2012)
  14. 14. Challenges for Orchard Replacement• Minimise the period of lost production – Precocious, High Density Orchards – Staggered Replacement• Step increases in productivity, management, pest/disease, quality …• … plus an R&D environment delivering continuous gains.• Reduced tree removal & replant costs
  15. 15. Potential Benefits of Orchard Replacement• Long term increase in productivity instead of long term decline• Old orchards benefit from new technologies• An industry advancing instead of stagnating – Reduced risk, increased responsivenessThe technology may not be ready today, but it is a goal worth chasing.

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