Macadamias and Opals
Opal
Select Harvests Ltd – share price16.0014.0012.0010.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00                                       Sourc...
Select Harvests Ltd – share price16.00                                Orchards (acres)                                Owne...
USD per metric tonne                                $50.00                                                      $150.00   ...
USD per metric tonne                                                                        $500.00                       ...
USD per metric tonne                                0                                    5                                ...
USD per metric tonne                                100                                      200                          ...
USD per metric tonne                                                  110                                                 ...
USD per metric tonne                                100                                      150                          ...
USD per metric tonne                                           120                                                 170    ...
Shares of urban household expenditure on food: all  households (%)                    Bangladesh                          ...
Shares of rural household expenditure on food: all   households (%)                    Bangladesh                         ...
Select Harvests Ltd – share price16.00                                Orchards (acres)                                Owne...
Industry investment is now likely to come from                    Sovereign Wealth Funds
Industry investment is now likely to come from             Endowment Funds and Agri Focussed Investors
Industry investment is now likely to come from                       Private Equity
Australian plantings                            18,000                                                                    ...
Global macadamia kernel production CAGR 2003-                                        2012                                 ...
Opal
Normalised Google Searches                                       10                                                    20 ...
Most Almond Google searches are from:                                        Source: Google Insights
Most Macadamia Google searches are from:                                     Source: Google Insights
Almonds and macadamia searches – developedcountries (Macadamias in red)                                      Japan        ...
Almonds and macadamia searches – emergingcountries (Macadamias in red)                                  China             ...
Macadamias and Opals
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Plenary session 1 the tricks and trials of investing in nut production - david williams

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Plenary session 1 the tricks and trials of investing in nut production - david williams

  1. 1. Macadamias and Opals
  2. 2. Opal
  3. 3. Select Harvests Ltd – share price16.0014.0012.0010.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Source: Capital IQ
  4. 4. Select Harvests Ltd – share price16.00 Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 Orchards (acres)14.00 Managed: 18,100 Owned & Leased: 12,600 Managed: 4,40012.0010.00 Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 8.00 Managed: 11,500 6.00 Orchards (acres) 4.00 Owned & Leased: 2,100 Orchards (acres) 2.00 Owned & Leased: 3,400 Managed: 35,300 0.00 Source: Capital IQ
  5. 5. USD per metric tonne $50.00 $150.00 $250.00 $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Barley price - $US per metric tonne Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12Source: Index Mundi
  6. 6. USD per metric tonne $500.00 $900.00 $1,000.00 $1,100.00 $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 $400.00 $600.00 $700.00 $800.00 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Rice price - $US per metric tonne Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12Source: Index Mundi
  7. 7. USD per metric tonne 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Sugar price - $US per metric tonne Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12Source: Index Mundi
  8. 8. USD per metric tonne 100 200 400 500 600 300 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Soybeans price - $US per metric tonne Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12Source: Index Mundi
  9. 9. USD per metric tonne 110 130 150 170 190 50 70 90 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Beef price - $US per metric tonne Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12Source: Index Mundi
  10. 10. USD per metric tonne 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Wheat price - $US per metric tonne Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12Source: Index Mundi
  11. 11. USD per metric tonne 120 170 220 270 320 20 70 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Corn price - $US per metric tonne Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12Source: Index Mundi
  12. 12. Shares of urban household expenditure on food: all households (%) Bangladesh Cambodia Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Pakistan Uganda Kenya IndiaExpenditure itemPurchased food 51 53 41 53 39 42 35 37 41Nonpurchased food 3.9 6.6 0.8 3.2 6.9 2 4.5 6.5 2.6Total food 55 60 42 56 46 44 40 44 44 Source: World Bank
  13. 13. Shares of rural household expenditure on food: all households (%) Bangladesh Cambodia Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Pakistan Uganda Kenya IndiaExpenditure itemPurchased food 49 52 49 55 35 42 35 27 38Nonpurchased food 15 20 11 11 25 14 11 29 16Total food 64 72 60 66 60 56 46 56 54 Source: World Bank
  14. 14. Select Harvests Ltd – share price16.00 Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 Orchards (acres)14.00 Managed: 18,100 Owned & Leased: 12,600 Managed: 4,40012.0010.00 Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 8.00 Managed: 11,500 6.00 Orchards (acres) 4.00 Owned & Leased: 2,100 Orchards (acres) 2.00 Owned & Leased: 3,400 Managed: 35,300 0.00 Source: Capital IQ
  15. 15. Industry investment is now likely to come from Sovereign Wealth Funds
  16. 16. Industry investment is now likely to come from Endowment Funds and Agri Focussed Investors
  17. 17. Industry investment is now likely to come from Private Equity
  18. 18. Australian plantings 18,000 6,000 16,000 5,000 14,000Area under plantings (Ha) 12,000 4,000 Plantings (000s trees) 10,000 3,000 8,000 6,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 2,000 - - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Australian Macadamia Society orchards census
  19. 19. Global macadamia kernel production CAGR 2003- 2012 12% 11% 10%Growth / decline in production volume 10% 9% 8% 6.40% 6% 5% 4.50% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% NA NA NA 0% -2% -3% -4% Source: International Dried Fruit & Nut Association Statistics Database
  20. 20. Opal
  21. 21. Normalised Google Searches 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 90 80 0 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Almonds Jan-06 Macadamias May-06 Google searches: Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 almonds and macadamias 2004 - 2012 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11Source: Google Insights Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
  22. 22. Most Almond Google searches are from: Source: Google Insights
  23. 23. Most Macadamia Google searches are from: Source: Google Insights
  24. 24. Almonds and macadamia searches – developedcountries (Macadamias in red) Japan Italy United KingdomNormalised Google Searches Spain France Germany Canada United States New Zealand Australia 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Google Insights
  25. 25. Almonds and macadamia searches – emergingcountries (Macadamias in red) China RussiaNormalised Google Searches Argentina India Malaysia Philippines Brazil 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: Google Insights
  26. 26. Macadamias and Opals

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