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Challenges for the Future Bio-Economy


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Results of an international web-survey by Sitra, Landmarks Programme

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Challenges for the Future Bio-Economy

  1. 1. Challenges for the Future Bio-EconomyResults of an international web-survey15.09.2011 Sitra, Landmarks Programme<br />
  2. 2. Motivation for the survey<br />Bio-economy is here to stay <br />But what is bio-economy today and in the future? <br />In the lack of a joint strategies and in the midst of varying opinions on bioeconomy, <br />the survey aimed at answering he following questions:<br />Is bio-economy more than biomass-based production or biotechnologies? Can it also be seen as a wider societal issue, which affects all of us ? <br />What are the most important challenges to establish the future bio-based economy in businesses and in society in general? And what are the solutions?<br />How do individuals from different sectors see bio-based economy and its challenges (ie. farmers-forest-bioenergy-biobusiness. biotech)<br /> The international web survey was conducted to support of the preparations and designing of resolutions for the international Koli Forum on “Resources for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth” held in Finland 14-1.9.2011.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  3. 3. 1. How?Data collection and respondents<br />14/09/2011<br />
  4. 4. Introduction<br />14/09/2011<br />
  5. 5. Data collectionmethod<br />14/09/2011<br />June-August 2011: <br />Invitationsby e-mail to variousstakeholders, such as industryassociations, Sitra mailinglists, EU institutions, Koli Forum mailinglists, etc.<br />Resultssummary<br />Question: ”Whatare the challenges for the future<br />bio-economy?”<br />Evaluation of importance of others’ responses<br />Elaboration: Whyarethese the mostimportant for you?<br />
  6. 6. Participation and respondentbackgrounds(n=173)<br />14/09/2011<br />
  7. 7. 2. Results for the whole dataThemesarrangedbyimportance and degree of agreement on the importance<br />14/09/2011<br />
  8. 8. Topicsexamined<br />Biomass<br />Water<br />Nutrients<br />Supply<br />Business<br />Products<br />R&T&I<br />Economictools<br />14/09/2011<br /><ul><li>Energy& Climate
  9. 9. Environment
  10. 10. Materialflow
  11. 11. Global
  12. 12. Local
  13. 13. Norms
  14. 14. Communication
  15. 15. Societalsystem</li></li></ul><li>How the resultsarepresented<br />14/09/2011<br />INTERPRETATION RULES<br />Size<br />= Number of suggestions<br />Location<br />= Importance<br />= Level of agreement<br />Note: <br />Locationrefers to relative, notabsoluteimportance and agreement<br />- Importance +<br />- Disagreement +<br />
  16. 16. Framework for Interpretation of Impulses<br />14.9.2011<br />10<br />AGREEMENT<br />DISAGREEMENT<br />CHALLENGE <br />CLEAR<br />=> FindingSolution<br />CONFLICT OVER THE CHALLENGE<br />=> FindingAgreement<br />IMPORTANT<br />NOT ON AGENDA<br />=> Consciouslyornot<br />POTENTIAL <br />WEAK SIGNALS<br />=> Openeyedevaluation<br />NOT<br />IMPORTANT<br />
  17. 17. Bio-economy as a business sector<br />14.9.2011<br />11<br />Business view - mostcommonview to bio-economy<br />Importantbutnot the mostimportantaspect<br />Strongfocus on biomassbasedproduction; yetdisagreement on supply of rawmaterials<br />Materialproducts and energyequallyimportant; yettensionrelated to energyuse<br />Highagreement on the need of inputs in R&T&I and economictools<br />Disagreement onnormcontrol<br />Common ground on importantissues<br />Importantbutconflictuousissues<br />- Importance +<br />R&T&I<br />Economic<br />tools<br />Business<br />Supply<br />Pro-duct<br />Norms<br />Bio-mass<br />s<br />Climate<br />& energy<br />Not on agenda<br />Lowinterestbutdeviatingviews<br />- Disagreement +<br />
  18. 18. Bio-economy as a societalstrategy<br />14.9.2011<br />12<br />Common ground on importantissues<br />Importantbutconflictuousissues<br />Mostoften, bio-economy is viewed as a strategyrelated to energy & climatechange<br />Maintaining a sustainablenutrient and watercycleis evaluated as the farmostimportantchallenge for futurebio-economy<br />Biomass is rural, butruralaspects and localmaterialflowsarenot on agenda<br />Communicationchallenges<br />Nutrient<br />Water<br />- Importance +<br />Communication<br />Materialflow<br />Climate<br />& energy<br />Local<br />Environment<br />Not on agenda<br />Lowinterestbutdeviatingviews<br />- Disagreement +<br />
  19. 19. Bio-economy as an economic and social system<br />14.9.2011<br />13<br />Common ground on importantissues<br />Importantbutconflictuousissues<br />The importance of bio-economy as a societalstrategy is recognisedbyfew<br />Highimportance & conflictuousviews<br />Major issuerelated to spatialscale of bio-economy(global+local)<br />Howarematerialcyclesorganizedbetween<br /><ul><li>Global and local
  20. 20. Nutrients & water</li></ul>Global<br />- Importance +<br />Societalsystem<br />s<br />Materialflow<br />Local<br />Not on agenda<br />Lowinterestbutdeviatingviews<br />- Disagreement +<br />
  21. 21. Nutrient(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Biomassproduction and usage is both an opportunity and a threat to the nutrientcycle; reaching a balance is necessary.<br />Renewability of the resources and nutrients is onlyone side of the story; production of nutrients and the necessaryenergyhave a largeimpact of theirown. Renewablesdemand a lot of finites (water, fertilizer, land) in theirproduction.<br />The wholeproductionchainhas to understand and show commitment to the bioeconomicalapproach, and beaware of unintendedconsequences. Profitabilitymustnotbeneglected.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  22. 22. Water(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Waterleads the choices of sustainableproduction in everyarea; for examplegrowingwater-demanding food in water-richareas.<br />Waterscarcity and itsunevenglobaldistribution is one of the main challenges.<br />Closedcircuitor the minimization of the use of nutrients, waterorenergy? There is somedisagreementbetweenparticipantsconcerning the priorities.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  23. 23. Business (Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Business shifts the globalbalance of bio-economy as the speed of implementation and technologytransferdiffers.<br />Favorable business environment is one of the keyissuesaffectingchange in the industrialstructure.<br />Long-terminvestment for development and production is alsoseen as a challenge for the bio-economy.<br />SME enterprisesalsofacechallenges in economies of scalewhenlaunching new sustainableproductionmethods. <br />14/09/2011<br />
  24. 24. Product(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Food production is the mostsignificantarea of innovation for the futurebio-economy.<br />Various new researchprogrammes and grantsareneeded for moretargetedresearch and innovation.<br />In today’satmosphere products stillneed to carry the associatedenvironmentalcosts in order for greensolutions to beable to compete.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  25. 25. Climate & Energy (Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />The competition for resourcesbetween food and energyproductionwillbestrong in the future. The landareaneeded for bioenergyproduction is a keyquestion.<br />Manyseethat the currentprices of fossilfuelsdonotreflect the externalcosts of theirproduction and use. Pricematters a lot in the competition. Use of landorsea for biofuels?<br />Overallenergyconsumption is expected to rise, whichwillalsoeventuallyhave an effect on the feasibilitythreshold of differentenergy products. <br />14/09/2011<br />
  26. 26. Biomass(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />The oftenlowrefininggrade of biomass is problematic;If we produce biomass while resources are already scarce, we have to have the most effective processes possible in use. We especially need processes that also work in areas where biomass growth is rather low to actually skip inefficient use of resources.<br />Biomass is readily available in tropical areas. The technology for converting biomass into energy is lacking in most tropical countries. The balance of technological, economic and social development is also dependent on investments in new technology.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  27. 27. R & T & I (Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Research and innovationarevital for technologicaldevelopment to secure the effectivebio-economy.<br />Sufficientresearchprogramsdemand international coordination and networks.<br />By nature, bio-economy’sresearch and implementationchallengesarecomplex and requiremultidisciplinaryapproaches.<br />In most parts of the world, scientific research is not well applied. It is a matter of education, which makes it hard in most regions of the world.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  28. 28. Societalsystem(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Solutions in the bio-economy should aim in sustainability in which economical, ecological and social factors are all working together and making the sustainable solution possible. How can the companies and societies in the bio-economy sectors work together so that the result is beneficial for both of them and better than what they would have reached alone? <br />Bio-economy requires new technical and social processes, which require both money and time to be established. It is so much easier and often cheaper to rely on the old non-renewable and fossil methods.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  29. 29. Environment (Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Environmental cost accounting and costing principles are one of the main topics throughout the discussion.<br />To thoroughly understand the environmental impacts of choices is a controversial tropic. Several policies and practices, although originally well-intended, may end up wasting more resources than foreseen in the beginning. <br />Governments should address the interdependency between economic and environmental systems. <br />14/09/2011<br />
  30. 30. Norms(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />The role of governments is seen to be facilitating the change towards the bio-economy by implementing regulations and norms that support the bio-economy activities.<br />Regulations have a big impact on the financial outcomes, access to markets of different operators and competition.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  31. 31. Supply(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Availability of biomass for the bio-economy in sufficientquantities and at a tolerableprice for scaled-upproduction is doubted.<br />Promising new supplies in by-products and wastematerials. <br />There is a high agreement on the view that sustainable food production should be secured in every area. Securing the food production serves people in the area - without food production it may be impossible to live in such areas in the future, especially during possible times of crisis.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  32. 32. Communication(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Public attitude is a majorchallenge for futurebio-economy. Education and communicationmayshiftattitudes, butittakestime. It is unclearwhether the publictakesitsleadfrompolicymakers, or the otherwayaround.<br />People'smindsetneeds to changedramatically in order to giveroom to the success of bio-economy. Trueactions and truethinkingareneeded. In surveys, peoplearegreenbecausetheyaspire to begreen. However, theirconsumptiondecisionsareoftenanythingbutthat. <br />Ultimately, the publicshouldbeconvincedthat the shift is worth it. <br />14/09/2011<br />
  33. 33. Economictools(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Long-terminvestment is one of the majorchallenges. The problem is thatinvestorswantrapidreturns. Therefore, investment for development and production of primary products needmuchsupportfrom national and international levels. <br />Alltoooften is bio-economyseen as an action with no soundeconomicbasis.<br />The role of governments is to facilitate the changetowards the bio-economybyimplementingregulations and normsthatsupportbio-economyactivities. <br />Privateinvestors and innovatorsareneeded, buttheyrequirestablepolicies and regulatoryframeworks.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  34. 34. Materialflow(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />A life-cycleapproach in usingmaterials is important for the bio-economy.<br />One process’swasteshouldbeanother’s input.<br />Shouldbio-economybe a ”growth” or a ”de-growth” economy?<br />14/09/2011<br />
  35. 35. Global(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Is itevenpossible to balance the manydifferinginterests of developed, emerging and developingeconomies?<br />Mechanisms of globalcoordination and cooperationarecalled for, butnotspecified.<br />What is the way to findglobally and locallysatisfactorysolutions? Globalsolutionstend to favorlargecorporationswhohaveoverwhelmingresources and economies of scale.<br />14/09/2011<br />
  36. 36. Local(Examples of respondents’ answers)<br />Localchallengesareinexorablyintertwined with the globalones.<br />Resources, capital and knowledgeareunevenlydistributed, evenwhen the supply is adequate on the globallevel. <br />Production of food withoutincreasingpollution and with the controlling of carbondioxideemissions, in a wayalsoeconomicallysensible for the producer, needs a lot of development. <br />14/09/2011<br />
  37. 37. 3. Examples of individualsuggestions<br />14.9.2011<br />30<br />
  38. 38. HIGH RELEVANCE, LOW DEVIATION<br />Bio-economyrequires new technical and social processes<br />It is a majorchallenge to change the attitudes and short-termthinking in the politicalarenas – peoples’ mindsetsneed to changedramatically<br />Social rejection and ignorance – ifpeopledonotunderstandit, theywillnotacceptit<br />It is a challenge to change the existingeconomicpoint of view of people (i.e. changing the motivationfactors of buying, fromlowprices to howitwasproduced)<br />The societymustunderstand the importance of cascadeuse<br />Resourcelimits – methods for defining the optimaluse of bio-resourcesareneeded<br />The expectedgrowth of general energy and resourcedemandwillbringtremendouspressure to, alreadyscarce, land, water and fertilizers<br />Securing the supply of naturalresources is a challenge to meet out currentlifestyles and the increasinguse of them<br />The governmentshouldsave the renewableresourcesfromprivatizationsothattheyare in the reach of everyone<br />14/09/2011<br />
  39. 39. HIGH RELEVANCE, LOW DEVIATION (contin.)<br />Cooperation is neededthroughout the chain to makebio-economyprofitable<br />The public and privatesectorhave to puttheirgreedaside and worktogether<br />Private: venture capital; public: incentiveframework<br />Politiciansarenotable to make the unpopularcostlydecisions<br />Trainingpeople for the ruralbio-economy in the urbansociety<br />The basicneeds of developingcountries’ peoplehave to befulfilledbeforetalkingaboutbio-economy to them and usingtheirresources<br />Food productionhas to besecuredeverywhere, meeting the existinglocalneeds<br />The scientists and industryshoulddevelopsolutionseffectiveboth in the bio-economy and the privateeconomy<br />Climatechange is the biggestchallenge in the circumstances of growingneeds of food and energy<br />14/09/2011<br />
  40. 40. HIGH RELEVANCE, HIGH DEVIATION<br />Pricing. Oil is stillcheapcompared to bioenergy.<br />New pricingmechanismsareneeded – what is the cost of renewableresourcesagainstconventionalnon-renewables<br />It is a requirement for the bio-basedproducts to becost-effective, theyshouldnotexceed the price of non-bio-basedproducts<br />How to matureeverything ”bio” with the cheapfossilscompeting<br />New processtechnologiesareneeded for finding new business models<br />It is important to balance the sustainableuse of resourceswith the increasingneeds of people<br />With the existinglaws, the demand for bio-energywillincrease<br />Landavailability is a globalchallenge for the future – sustainability of biomass for bioproductswillfacemajorchallenges outside Europe<br />Climatechangewillbringradicalchanges in weather and crops<br /><ul><li>The attitude of the oldcore of economics – earlierGreenwashharms a lot of rethinking. The EU and itsenterprisesneed to adapt the pioneer’srole in developing and building new bio-economy</li></ul>14/09/2011<br />
  41. 41. LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH DEVIATION<br />A multidiciplineryapproach is needed in bio-economysolutions – cooperationbetweeneveryone in differentsectors, companies and researchfields<br />The challenges and opportunitiesareendless. Withorwithoutbio-economy, wearedrivenevenfurther to innovate in order to maintain the properfunctioning of a globaleconomy of sevenbillionpeople and growing.<br />International relations of producing and consumingcountrieswillrise on the agenda<br />Wehave to focusdegreeprograms on bio-economy<br />Sectorsarealreadycompeting for the utilization of bio-resources – Howshould the sustainabilitybeensuredwhenthedemand is growingfast<br />Weneed to investmore in creativeideas (i.e. products) in creating a new bio-economybeyondenergy<br />In Finland, wedon’tneededucation in bioenergy, lots of youngbio-engineersarewithoutjobs.<br />14.9.2011<br />34<br />
  42. 42. LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH DEVIATION (contin.)<br />Combiningsustainablitywithgrowth – bio-ecomomyshallprovide a model of continuousdevelopmenttowards the limits of the self-restoringcapacity of nature<br />Difficulties and fears of thinkingdifferently, it is easy to do ”business as usual” <br />Producingcountrieswillbedifferentcomparedwith the fossilera<br />Bioenergy is temporary. Itwillbereplacedbygeoenergy and wirelesstransfer<br />The safety of biomass for certainapplicationshas to beensured (i.e food)<br />LOW RELEVANCE, LOW DEVIATION<br />Small scale is notappreciated – only big enterpriseshavepower in economicpolicy<br />Differingculturalphilosophies of variousgroups (i.e. nimbyvspimby)<br />14/09/2011<br />
  43. 43. Examples of individualsuggestions: HIGH RELEVANCE, LOW DEVIATIONHighlevel of agreement => Search for solutions<br />”Societymustunderstand”<br />People’smindsetneeds to changedramatically; ourways of working, thinking and consumingneed to becompletelyrenewed<br />Politicianswhothinkthatnextyearsarenotimportant and arenotable to make the unpopularcostlydecisions<br />”Totally new structuresareneeded”<br />Bio-economyrequiresnotonly new technology, butnew social processes and infrastructure<br />”Wearenotalone”<br />Cooperation and common language and is neededbetweendifferentbioeconomysectors, and betweenpublic and privateactors. <br />The option of bio-economyhas to beofferedalso for developingnations<br />”Bio-economy is aboutland, sun, water and nutrients”<br />14.9.2011<br />36<br />
  44. 44. Examples of individualsuggestions: IMPORTANT BUT CONFLICTING VIEWSHighlytensiousissues => Find common ground<br />”Bio-businessesstrugglewithcompetitiveness”<br />Althoughincreasingdemand, bio-businessesarestrugglingwithcheapoil, costeffectiveness, landavailability, and problemsrelated to new technologies and innovation<br />”Bio-businessesare the key”<br />Bio-economy is needed to combatclimatechange<br />The attitude of the oldcore of economics<br />”Sustainable management and optimization of resources is the key?”<br />Willtherebeenoughresources for the bio-economy?<br />Landstruggles and climatechangewillaffectourresourcebase<br />14.9.2011<br />37<br />
  45. 45. Examples of individualsuggestions: LOW RELEVANCE, HIGH DEVIATIONPotentialweaksignals => considerwithopeneyes<br />Bio-energy is temporary. Itwillbereplacedbygeo-energy and wirelesstransfer<br />International relations of producing and consumingcountrieswillrise on agenda<br />14.9.2011<br />38<br />Examples of individualsuggestions: LOW RELEVANCE, LOW DEVIATION<br />Not on agenda =>Shouditbe?<br /><ul><li>Small-scale is notappreciated – only big enterpriseshavepower in economicpolicy</li></li></ul><li>4. Themesbyparticipantbackground<br />14/09/2011<br />
  46. 46. Number of responsesbybackground<br />
  47. 47. Themefrequencybyrespondentbackground: Country<br />
  48. 48. Themefrequencybyrespondentbackground: Sector 1/2<br />
  49. 49. Themefrequencybyrespondentbackground: Sector 2/2<br />
  50. 50. Themefrequencybyrespondentbackground: Affiliation<br />
  51. 51. Whatthemesdifferentsectorsmentionmore/lessoftenthanothers?<br />14.9.2011<br />45<br />Environment<br />+ Water<br />+ Environment<br />+ Climate & Energy<br />- Societalsystem<br />- Economictools<br />Agriculture<br />+ Materialflow<br />+ Normcontrol<br />+Economictools<br />+ Societalsystem<br /><ul><li>Business
  52. 52. Biomass
  53. 53. Environment
  54. 54. Climate&Energy
  55. 55. Communication</li></ul>Bioenergy<br />+ Climate&Energy<br />+ R&T&I<br /><ul><li>Environment</li></ul>Forest<br />+ Environment<br />+Societalsystem<br />+ Communication<br /><ul><li>Materialflow
  56. 56. Local</li></ul>- Nutrients<br /><ul><li>Water
  57. 57. Climate&Energy
  58. 58. Normcontrol
  59. 59. Product</li></ul>- R&T&I<br />
  60. 60. Strongsectoraldifferences in thinkingaboutmajorchallenges of futurebio-economy<br />14.9.2011<br />46<br />
  61. 61. 5. Summary of the results<br />14.9.2011<br />47<br />
  62. 62. Interpretation of the web-surveyresults<br />14.9.2011<br />48<br />AGREEMENT<br />DISAGREEMENT<br />Conflicts to beresolved:<br />Bioeconomy in society: <br />Bioeconomy & Sustainability (Ecosystems and climatechange)<br />Bioeconomy as business: <br />Biobusinessstrugglewithcompetitiveness<br />Biobusinessesare the key<br />Willtherebeenoughresources?<br />Energy vsmaterialproduction<br />Solutions to besought:<br />Bioeconomy in society: <br />Bioeconomy is aboutland, sun, water and nutrients – food and energyare the keys<br />Societymustunderstand; totally new structuresareneeded<br />Wearenotalone, solutions for developingcoutriesareneeded, too<br />Bioeconomy as business:<br />Need for economictools and R&T&I <br />IMPORTANT<br />Potentialweaksignals: <br />Bioenergy is temporary<br />International relationswillrise in agenda<br />Safety of bioproducts, e.g. food<br />Modelsrelated to the self-restoringcapacity of nature<br />Ignoredaspects: <br />Localproduction and small-scalebiobusinesses<br />Biowaste and materialflows<br />Culturaldifferencesbetweensectors<br />NOT<br />IMPORTANT<br />
  63. 63. Main findings of the websurvey<br />WHEN ASKED (first thought): <br />Competitiveness of bio-businesses as a whole (access to biomass + use of biotech)<br />Enabling environment needed (policy frame, regulation, financing, incentives)<br />Internal competition between different bio-businesses over infinite resources (e.g. material vs energy)<br />WHEN EVALUATING OTHER’s SUGGESTIONS (giving it some thought):<br />Bioeconomy is essentially about nutrients, water, land, … NOT biomass !<br />Strong call for paradigm shift in thinking related to natural resources and well-being<br />New societal structures are needed to secure food and energy for the growing population in conditions of resource limits<br />14.9.2011<br />49<br /><ul><li>WHEN LOOKING OUT OF THE BOX:
  64. 64. Bioenergy is onlytemporary
  65. 65. International relationswillrise on the agenda
  66. 66. Safety of bioproducts, e.g. food
  68. 68. Business potentials / societalimportance of materialflows and ecosystemservices
  69. 69. Potentials of localproduction and materialcycles</li></li></ul><li> information :Eeva Hellström, Sitra, eeva.hellstrom@sitra.fiEero Kokkonen, Sitra,<br />14/09/2011<br />