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Managing Using Intuition and Rules of Thumb 050113



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Managing Using Intuition and Rules of Thumb 050113

  1. 1. Managing     using     Intui+on  and  Rules  of  Thumb   Mickey  W.  Mantle   May  2,  2013  
  2. 2. Two  Books  
  3. 3. Intui+on  
  4. 4. Rules  of  Thumb  
  5. 5. Managing  –  an  audience  survey   •  Everyone  who  is  a  manager,  please  stand     •  Please  sit  if  you  have  never  had  any   management  training   •  Please  sit  if  your  management  training  was   acquired  aIer  you  began  managing  people   •  Those  who  remain  standing  actually  had  some   management  training  before  they  started   managing  people  
  6. 6. Managing,  A  Defini+on   managing  programmers  –  making  sure  the  right  stuff  happens!  
  7. 7. Using  Intui+on  
  8. 8. Audience  Survey   •  Those  who  use  intui+on  oIen  (at  least  daily)   in  managing  others  please  raise  your  hand  
  9. 9. Malcolm  Gladwell1   1Source:  
  10. 10. Example  Cited  by  Gladwell  
  11. 11. Nega+ve  Example  Cited  by  Gladwell  
  12. 12. Instant  Conclusions   •  Intui+on,  or  Gladwell’s  instant  conclusions,  can   be  very  important  to  the  success  of  a  manager   and  leader   •  Intui+on  can  be  improved  using  Gladwell’s   techniques   •  Decisions  have  to  be  made,  oIen  without   enough  facts  to  support  a  decision   •  A  great  manager  relies  upon  his  experience  and   intui+on  to  bridge  the  gap  between  facts  and   making  the  right  decision  
  13. 13. Using  Rules  of  Thumb  
  14. 14. Rule  of  Thumb   •  A  general  guideline,  rather  than  a  strict  rule;   an  approximate  measure  or  means  of   reckoning  based  on  experience  or  common   knowledge   •  A  way  to  borrow  experience  in  a  concise   fashion  
  15. 15. Example  Rules  of  Thumb   •  A  s+tch  in  +me,  saves  nine   •  If  it  ain’t  broke,  don’t  fix  it   •  For  any  soIware  project,  it  will  likely  take   twice  as  long  and  cost  twice  as  much  as  you   originally  es+mate  to  really  finish  the  project  
  16. 16. Audience  Survey   •  Those  who  use  rules  of  thumb  oIen  (at  least   once  a  week)  in  managing  others  please  raise   your  hand  
  17. 17. Rule  of  Thumb   Managers  must  manage   – Andy  Grove,  Intel  President,  CEO,  Chairman  1967-­‐2004  
  18. 18. Rule  of  Thumb       Not  to  decide  is  to  decide   – Anonymous  
  19. 19. How  to  make  a  decision   •  What  if  you  can’t  defer  a  decision  and   don’t  have  enough  facts  to  decide?   •  Mickey’s  method:   – Flip  a  coin!   – But  listen  to  yourself,  not  the  outcome  of  the   coin  flip…   •  Also  be  prepared  to  change  your  decision  as   soon  as  the  facts  demand  it  
  20. 20. Rule  of  Thumb     Leading  by  example  occurs  whether  you  like  it   or  not.   – Jateen  Parekh,  Founder  and  CTO  of  Jelli   Crowdsourced  Radio  
  21. 21. Rule  of  Thumb       I  praise  loudly;  I  blame  soIly.   – Catherine  the  Great,  Empress  of  Russia  1762  -­‐  1796    
  22. 22. Rule  of  Thumb     We  have  two  ears  and  one  mouth.    Use  them  in   this  ra+o.   – Kimberly  Wiefling     paraphrased  from  Epictetus,  a  Roman  slave  and  philosopher   (55-­‐135  A.D.)  who  said  “We  have  two  ears  and  one  mouth   so  we  may  listen  more  and  talk  less”  
  23. 23. Rule  of  Thumb   Communica+on  is  the  inverse  square  of  the   distance  domes+cally  and  the  inverse  cube  of   the  distance  interna+onally.   – David  C.  Evans,  Founder  and  CEO,  Evans  &   Sutherland  Computer  CorporaTon   Corollaries:       You  cannot  over  communicate.   Never  underes+mate  the  value  of  proximity.  
  24. 24. Rule  of  Thumb     A  collocated  team  will  always  outperform  the   equivalent  distributed  team.   – Mike  Cohn,  Agile  and  Scrum  “Thought  Leader”  
  25. 25. Rule  of  Thumb     Trust  but  verify.   – Ronald  Reagan  (and  others)  
  26. 26. Rule  of  Thumb     A’s  hire  A’s,  B’s  hire  C’s.   – Steve  Jobs,  Apple  and  Pixar  
  27. 27. Rule  of  Thumb     When  it  comes  to  gecng  things  done,  we  need   fewer  architects  and  more  bricklayers.   – Colleen  C.  Barre[,  President  Southwest  Airlines  
  28. 28. Rule  of  Thumb     Gecn’  good  players  is  easy.    Gecn’ ‘em  to   play  together  is  the  hard  part.   – Casey  Stengel,  Manager  New  York  Yankees  
  29. 29. Rule  of  Thumb     No  one  ever  jumped  ship  who  wasn’t  standing   close  to  the  rail.   – Jim  Hollingsworth  
  30. 30. Rule  of  Thumb     Manage  salaries  as  if  you  had  to  post  them   outside  your  office  door.   – M.  W.  Mantle   There  are  always  salary  inequi+es.   – M.  W.  Mantle  
  31. 31. Rule  of  Thumb     Genius  is  one  percent  inspira-on,  ninety  nine   percent  perspira-on.   – Thomas  Alva  Edison  
  32. 32. Rule  of  Thumb        There's  just  a  tremendous  amount  of   craIsmanship  in  between  a  great  idea  and  a   great  product.   – Steve  Jobs,  from  "Steve  Jobs:  The  Lost  Interview",  1995  television   interview  with  Robert  X.  Cringely  
  33. 33. Rule  of  Thumb     All  you  have  to  do  is  draw  a  picture.   – John  Warnock,  Co-­‐founder  Adobe  Systems  
  34. 34. Rule  of  Thumb     Priori+ze.    Some+mes,  it  is  urgent  to  wait.   – Phac  le  Tuan,  VP  of  Engineering,  CEO  
  35. 35. Rule  of  Thumb     Adequacy  is  sufficient.   – Adam  Osborne,  Author,  Publisher,  Computer   Designer,  and  Founder,  Osborne  Computers   An  update  on  Voltaire’s  “The  perfect  is  the  enemy  of  the  good”.    A   common  flaw  in  programmers.  
  36. 36. Rule  of  Thumb       Don’t  boil  the  ocean.   – Anonymous  
  37. 37. Rule  of  Thumb       There  is  no  reliable  rela+onship  between  the   volume  of  code  produced  and  the  state  of   comple+on  of  a  program,  its  quality,  or  its   ul+mate  value  to  a  user.   – Sco[  Rosenberg  
  38. 38. Rule  of  Thumb       SoIware  is  hard.   – Donald  Knuth  
  39. 39. Rule  of  Thumb       SoIware  isn’t  released,  it’s  allowed  to  escape.   – Project  Management  Lay  Wisdom  
  40. 40. Rule  of  Thumb       Hofstadter’s  Law:    It  always  takes  longer  than   you  expect,  even  when  you  take  Hofstadter’s   Law  into  account.   – Douglas  Hofstadter  
  41. 41. Rule  of  Thumb       The  hardest  single  part  of  building  a  soIware   system  is  deciding  precisely  what  to  build.   – Fredrick  P.  Brooks  Jr.  
  42. 42. Rule  of  Thumb       Customers  will  grade  you  more  harshly  on  poor   quality  than  on  missing  features.   – Mark  Calomeni,  VP  of  Engineering,  Accept   Soaware  
  43. 43. Rule  of  Thumb       Under  promise  and  over  deliver.   – Anonymous  
  44. 44. Rule  of  Thumb       Brooks'  Law:    Adding  manpower  to  a  late   soIware  project  makes  it  later.   – Fredrick  P.  Brooks  Jr.  
  45. 45. Ques+ons  or  Comments?    
  46. 46. Thank  you!   Mickey  W.  Mantle   Founder  &  CEO   Wanderful  interac+ve  storybooks     +1  415-­‐223-­‐1155,  x201  (o)   +1  800-­‐823-­‐0637,  x201  (o)