Federal Statistics Blog Slides

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Federal Statistics Blog Slides

  1. 1. The Nation’s Statistical System and Why it Matters: Federal Statistics in a Science-Driven Administration Peter R. Orszag, Director Office of Management and Budget For Official Use Only May 8, 2009
  2. 2. Science-Driven Policy: Taking Cues From Findings of Rigorous Data Analysis Science- Quality Rigorous Driven Data Analysis Policy
  3. 3. Funding for Federal Statistics: A Small Investment Informs Big Decisions (As a Share of GDP, Level in 1980 = 100) Note: In 1980, funding for federal statistical programs excluding the Decennial Census stood at about 0.015 percent of GDP. Including the Decennial Census, it stood at 0.041 percent of GDP. In the figure, funding levels are compared to that in 1980 with 1980 set equal to 100.
  4. 4. Good Data Drives Policy Monetary Policy Decisions: The Federal Reserve determines monetary policy based on monthly economic indicator data (BEA, BLS). Federal program funding allocations: Federal programs such as Medicaid allocate over $300 billion annually to states and localities based on BEA and census data on income and population. Federal program administration: SSA uses statistical analyses to help policymakers understand the distributional effects of policy alternatives.
  5. 5. Federal Statistics are Critical to the President’s Budget • Projecting spending and revenues over a ten year window in the President’s budget • Addressing the long-term fiscal gap • Understanding the current economic downturn and navigating policy responses • Analyzing federal program administration • Reviewing proposed regulatory actions
  6. 6. Investments in What Works… Significant Promising Improved Measurable Innovations Targeting Outcomes Reformed Nurse Home Harlem Asset Tests Visitation Children’s Zone/ Promise Neighborhoods Transportation Head Start/ Planning Early Head Start
  7. 7. …Trimming What Doesn’t No Measurable Poor High Error Outcomes Targeting Rates Character Emergency Education Operations Program Centers (EOC) Grants Advanced Even Start EITC Student Environmental Mentoring Infrastructure Program Construction
  8. 8. There is a Continuing Need to Innovate to Refine Data Methods
  9. 9. A Call to Action “Today, of course, we face more complex challenges than we have ever faced before…”
  10. 10. Long-Term Fiscal Gap and Health Care Costs Percentage Share of GDP Source: CBO (2007)
  11. 11. Medicare Spending per Capita, by Hospital Referral Region, 2006 $9,000to 16,352 (57) 7,500 to < 8,000 (53) 5,310 to < 7,000 (75) 8,000 to < 9,000 (79) 7,000 to < 7,500 (42) Not Populated Source: www.dartmouthatlas.org (2009)
  12. 12. The Relationship Between Quality and Medicare Spending, by State, 2004 Source: CBO (2008)
  13. 13. Administration Investments to “Bend the Curve” on Health Costs • The Obama Administration has already taken crucial steps in the Recovery Act to contain health care costs: – Invested $19 billion in Health IT to help computerize Americans’ health records – Devoted $1.1 billion in funding for comparative effectiveness research to arm physicians with data on what works and what doesn’t – Allocated $1 billion for prevention and wellness interventions to help reduce the impact and cost of chronic diseases – Allotted $500 million in the Recovery Act for sufficient and well-trained doctors, nurses, and other health professionals
  14. 14. Contribution of Educational Attainment to Annual U.S. Productivity Growth Percentage Change in GDP per Hour Average Contribution of Educational Attainment to Annual U.S. Productivity Growth, 1915 to 2005 = 0.48% (24% of Total) Note: Productivity growth is measured as growth in GDP per hour. Source: Goldin and Katz (2009)
  15. 15. Years of Schooling for Native-Born U.S. Citizens by Birth Cohort Note: Birth cohorts are normalized at 35 years of age. Source: Katz (2002)
  16. 16. Preparing Our Children for the 21st Century Economy • Administration Investments in tracking student achievement, teacher impact – Access to Recovery Act State Fiscal Stabilization Funds ($39.5 billion) requires states to develop longitudinal systems to track students from pre-K to postsecondary, and match students to individual teachers. – Additional $250 million competitive grant program to link data to postsecondary and work information – Access to Stabilization Funds also requires improvements in teacher effectiveness, ensuring all schools have access to highly qualified teachers
  17. 17. Teacher Impacts on Math Performance in Third Year By Ranking After First Two Years Source: Gordon, Kane and Staiger, 2006

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