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Immigrants: Resource for MN's Economy

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Immigrants: Resource for MN's Economy

  1. 1. Immigrants: Resource for MN’s Economy September 2013
  2. 2. Immigrant Contributions to MN’s Economy • • • • Workers Entrepreneurs Consumers Connect us to world economy • Contributions change over time!
  3. 3. Workers • Immigrant workers = majority of labor force growth • 7% of population – 9% of workforce – 375,000 to 390,000 people – 230,000 workers – 55,000 – 85,000 “unauthorized” • MN growth depends on imported labor
  4. 4. Labor Force Growth Will Slow Sharply
  5. 5. Migration Will Be Increasingly Important Re Growing the Labor Force Net Labor Force Growth 500,000 Total 400,000 Natural Part Rate Migration 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 -100,000 2000-10 State Demographer projection revised 2007 2010-20 2020-30
  6. 6. MN Labor Force % Born in Another Country 14% 12.6% 12% 10% 8.5% 25-34 55-64 8% 6% 4% 4.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.6% 2% 0% 1990 2000 PUMS microdata from 1990 & 2000 Census & 2006 ACS 2006
  7. 7. Immigration to Minnesota Since 1860 375,000 – 390,000 total (about 7% of the population)
  8. 8. Key Workers – Still in Short Supply (2012-13 Grow MN! Results, N = 697) Job Type Construction, Trades Workers Production and Assembly Architects,Engineers, Cartographers Sales Agents, Real Estate Agents Executives, Managers IT and Web, Actuaries, Statisticians Office Support and Assistants Installation, Maintenance, Automotive Transportation and Moving Personnel HR, Accountants, Finance, Insurance Food Preparers, Chefs, Servers # of Companies Seeking Workers 89 101 64 77 33 41 61 36 27 24 28 % Reporting Unfilled Jobs 14% 14% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4%
  9. 9. What Industries Fueled by Immigrant Workers? (Top 5) Source: Migration Policy Institute 2009 Industry % Foreign-Born % Native- Born Manufacturing 20% 13% Retail Trade 8% 12% Pro’s, Scientific, Management, Admin 14% 9% Education, Health, Social Services 23% 24% Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Accommodation and Food Services 11% 8% TOTAL, TOP 5 76% 66%
  10. 10. Minnesota’s Immigrant Population Is Highly Educated For every “low-skill” immigrant without a high school diploma, MN has 1.25 immigrants with “high skills” – a college degree or more. Skill Level % of Total MN Immigrant Population, 2009 Low Skill (< high school) 21% High Skill (at least a BA) 26% Source: The Geography of Immigrant Skills, Brookings 2011
  11. 11. Worker Shortage: What Do We Do? • Automate • Grow elsewhere • Support in-migration
  12. 12. Entrepreneurs • 6% of businesses in Minnesota are immigrant-owned • 5,000 Hispanic-owned (’11) – Up 125% since 2006 – Sales > $2 billion • 11,370 Asian firms (’07) – Asian-Indian firms = 2400, >4,300 employees – Sales > $2.3 billion • $772 million average annual sales (’06-’10) • Downtown & neighborhood revitalization Source: Minnesota Public Radio 2011, Concordia University 2011, CLAC
  13. 13. When you think “American”…
  14. 14. Immigrants Start Businesses • > 40% of Fortune 500 companies started by immigrants or their children. • Immigrants started 25% of high tech cos. from 1995-2005, creating 450,000 jobs. • Immigrants lead some of MN’s largest companies: 3M, Lifetime Fitness, DeCare, Medtronic, Best Buy & Mosaic. Source: Partnership for a New American Economy, Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal
  15. 15. Consumer Power • Minnesota’s foreign-born: > $5 billion buying power • Housing market in Minnesota (2000-2010): – 20% of growth in demand due to immigrants – 44% of rental growth due to immigrants – Depressed neighborhoods stabilized; new residents attracted (including non-immigrants)
  16. 16. Economic Stimulus • +1,000 immigrant professionals: – +7,100 new jobs by 2020 – +$2.5 billion in personal income by 2045 • Reform to seasonal & part-time visas: – 8,800 new jobs – $348 million in personal income by 2020 • Localized effects: – New immigrants may hurt wages of low-skilled native workers, but net economic benefit to U.S. is $80,000 per immigrant.
  17. 17. Connecting Us to the World • Foreign investment & expertise key to growth • MN’s steel & mining industries: – – – – – MN Steel (Nashwauk): India ArcelorMittal Steel (Virginia): India Gerdau Ameristeel (St. Paul): Brazil Duluth Metals (Biwabik): Chile Polymet (Hoyt Lakes): Canada • Immigrants add diversity… that says, “World Economy Welcome Here!”
  18. 18. Unauthorized Immigrants…No Definitive Data • 55,000 – 85,000 unauthorized • Cost: about $176-$188 m per year: – K12 education: $146-158 m – Incarceration: $13 m - Public health care: $17 m - Varies by community • On the other hand: – Annual state & local taxes paid, about $345 m – Limited access to public assistance • Immediate cost < long term benefit
  19. 19. Hmong MN Experience Compiled by Dr. Bruce Corrie, Concordia University, St. Paul Median Age College Graduates Workforce Participation Rate Median Household Income Household Receiving Public Assist Homeownership Rate Median Home Value 1980 37 5% 27% $17,481 67% 12% $85,927 2010 19.7 12.6% 59% $49,400 14% 49% $161,100
  20. 20. MN’s Economic Reality…2030 • Population ages dramatically • Labor force growth declines • New enterprises critical to growth • Needs foreign $$$s & expertise • New Americans key to Minnesota’s growth
  21. 21. QUESTIONS? COMMENTS?
  22. 22. The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011 65+ Passes School Age Around 2020 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 18-24 65+ 5-17 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
  23. 23. Competition for the Future Workforce Will Increase 14% 13.0% Percent Change 18-24 12% 10% 8% US Mn 6.8% 6% 4.5% 4% 2% 0% -2% -1.2% -1.6% -4% -2.2% -3.5% -3.0% -6% 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007 2015-20
  24. 24. Percent Foreign Born - MN & U.S., 1950-2008 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% Minnesota U.S. 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20062008

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