Feeding 9 billion - Maintaining the Planet

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  • Sources for income and population figures: UN (United Nations)
  • Feeding 9 billion - Maintaining the Planet

    1. 1. Jason Clay maintainingSVP Markets, WWF-US the planet
    2. 2. “You can’t wake a personwho’s pretending to sleep” Oromo proverb
    3. 3. global food 40 years =8,000 years
    4. 4. Global trends by 2050 200 Income 180 160 140 percent increase 120 100 Consumption 80 60 40 20 Population 0 2010 2050Source: United Nations
    5. 5. Countries with 5-7% GDP growth (2010-2011)Countries with >7% GDP growth (2010-2011)
    6. 6. FAO Food Price Index 2002 - 2004 = 100250 Nominal210170130 Real*9050 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 *The real price index is the nominal price index deflated by the World Bank Manufacturers Unit Value Index (MUV)
    7. 7. Top food exporting countries, 2002-12 (oilseed & cereals)
    8. 8. Drought-affected countries, 2012
    9. 9. on a finite planet, should consumers have a choice about sustainable products? or should all choices be sustainable?
    10. 10. Selected products, water use and farmer income Raw material Water to Farm gate price input produce input 1 4 oz 500 to 2,000 US $0.18 cotton t-shirt ginned liters of water (US) 1 6T 175-250 US $0.04 liter of soda sugar liters of water (World) 1 oz 6 oz 40 US $0.07 slice of cheese milk liters of water (US) 1 double 8 oz 3,000 to 15,000 US $0.92quarter-pounder hamburger liters of water (US) Source: USDA
    11. 11. Food as a % of U.S. disposableincome28%24%20%16%12%8% 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: USDA
    12. 12. 33% for food
    13. 13. Countries with parksbeing taken off the books
    14. 14. we mustintensify production
    15. 15. to eliminateagricultural sprawl
    16. 16. WWF’s 35 Priority Places
    17. 17. 2 1 1 2 4 3 1 1 5 palm oil cotton biofuels sugarcane pulp & paper1 10 3 1 3 5 1 5 1 sawn wood dairy beef soy low trophic level species 1 1 3 6 6 1farmed salmon farmed shrimp tropical shrimp tuna whitefish Priority commodities 1 China 1 India
    18. 18. 7 BILLION consumers300-500 control 70% trade of eachCOMPANIES commodity 1.5 BILLION producers
    19. 19. palm whitebeef cocoa coffee sugar soy cotton shrimp oil fish
    20. 20. 25%of demand pulls40-50% of production
    21. 21. by 2050need twice as much food
    22. 22. Food wedges urban waste agriculture carbon geneticsover & under technologyconsumption property better rights practices degraded land
    23. 23. waste1 out of 3 calories
    24. 24. Food and fiber waste • A green energy issue • First point of aggregation • Sugar, pulp, palm oil, timber, CAFOs • New England dairyPhoto: Gills Onion Power Plant
    25. 25. genetics “dance with the one that brung you”
    26. 26. World daily caloric intake wheat 560 rice 540 corn 375sugarcane/beet 245 soybeans 185 potatoes 65 palm oil 60 barley 50 sorghum 45 sunflowers 44 cassava 43 Direct Consumption rapeseed 42 Indirect Consumption peanuts 40 (animal feed) cotton seed oil 12 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Daily calories per capita
    27. 27. SugarBananas Corn
    28. 28. Mars won’t buycertified poverty
    29. 29. Greening & Citrus• Every major growing area infected• 5-10% of trees lost/year• No company can solve the problem alone• Map the genome of citrus & the disease• Global trade and disease
    30. 30. today’s technologyagriculture is 70% of water use
    31. 31. 1 liter of water = 1calorie
    32. 32. Global drought 11/2012Source: UCL Department of Space & Climate Physics - Nov 2012
    33. 33. Global drought forecast 2030-2039Source: UCAR, PDSI 2012
    34. 34. better practices 100 times better
    35. 35. Performance curve government voluntary regulation standardsnumber of producers performance shift worse average better
    36. 36. 21 st century supply chainsproducers traders manufacturers brands retailers consumers
    37. 37. 21st Century supply chains• More global but more redundancy• Longer-term contracts• Data and transparency• Manufacturing sites
    38. 38. IKEA and BCI Cotton—2005-10IKEA Cotton Use• 100,000 MT/yr (24% certified)• 400,000 producers (10% certified)Producer Impacts of BCI & BMPs• 60% less pesticide• 40% less water• 30% less synthetic fertilizer• 15-20% more income
    39. 39. 35,000 farmers3,000 employees
    40. 40. Unilever’s commitment: 100%sustainable ingredients
    41. 41. But, one company at a time is not fast enough
    42. 42. CGF – Precompetitiveapproaches• 57 companies• Deforestation out of supply chains• 4 commodities, 4 countries• By 2020
    43. 43. Banking EnvironmentInitiative (BEI)• 10 banks• Deforestation & lending portfolios• Palm oil in Indonesia• Banks in Brazil – soy & beef
    44. 44. commodities & externalitiessugar coffee beef cocoa
    45. 45. Carbon emissions in Tetra Pak supply chain 2020 Goal = 10.8 MT CO₂ raw materials, brands, retailers, end of production, processing consumer use life 45% 38% 10% 6% Tetra Pak direct emissions
    46. 46. Traded commodities – then and now physical values intangible valuesweights and measures organic quality non-GMO color water foreign matter no child labor health and safety carbon
    47. 47. Commodities andSupply Chains• Global trade doubled, but barriers persist• Maintain efficiency• More data and transparency• Redefine collusion and precompetitive• New role for traders
    48. 48. Reduce transactionspurchases Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
    49. 49. Pool commitmentspurchases Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
    50. 50. illegal illegal SPECIES MINERALS FISH FOREST PLANTATIONtigers gold bluefin tuna pulp palm oilelephants coltan demersal fishes timber soyrhinos diamonds shrimp and prawns mangroves beef
    51. 51. “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there.”
    52. 52. think about it

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