MNI India Consumer Report 2014-04

266 views

Published on

MNI India Consumer Indicator Ticks Down to 125.2 in April from 125.8 in March

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
266
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

MNI India Consumer Report 2014-04

  1. 1. MNI India Consumer Report April 2014 Insight and data for better decisions
  2. 2. MNI India Consumer Report - April 20142 About MNI Indicators Insight and data for better decisions MNI Indicators offers unique macro-economic data and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and intelligence that is unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves markets. Specialising in business and consumer focused macro-economic reports, we give our customers the ability to make timely and relevant decisions. We strive to provide up-to-date information on business and consumer confidence on the economy. MNI Indicators publishes data on a monthly basis. Our indicators are based on a unique and proprietary methodology and are designed to present an advance picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers every month. Our monthly reports explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence across different countries and regions. They deliver in-depth analysis, highlight changing patterns and how these can affect potential developments in business and consumer activities. MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a leading provider of news and intelligence. MNI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group, one of the largest worldwide exchange organisations. Written and researched by Philip Uglow, Chief Economist Shaily Mittal, Economist MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Westferry House 11 Westferry Circus London E14 4HE Tel: +44 (0)20 7862 7444 Email: info@mni-indicators.com www.mni-indicators.com @MNIIndicators Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. Release Time Embargoed until 9:45 a.m. New Delhi time May 2, 2014
  3. 3. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 3 MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 Contents 4 Editorial 6 Executive Summary 12 Economic Landscape 16 Indicators 17 MNI India Consumer Indicator 24 Personal Finances 26 Current Business Conditions 29 Durable Buying Conditions 30 Employment Outlook 31 Prices Sentiment 34 Interest Rate Expectations Indicator 35 Stock Investment Indicator 37 Real Estate Investment Indicator 40 Car Purchase Indicator 42 Special Question 43 Consumer Sentiment - Regions 47 Consumer Sentiment - Income Group 48 What the Panel Said 50 Data Tables 58 Methodology
  4. 4. Spitzzeile Titel4 Elections are usually periods of great uncertainty but the continued rise in the Sensex as national elections get underway in India belies this. Election Fever
  5. 5. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 5 Elections are usually periods of great uncertainty but the continued rise in the Sensex as national elections get underway in India belies this. The Sensex hit a fresh all-time high of 22,870 on April 23, buoyed by international investors who see a post-election India being able to dig itself out of the economic hole it’s in. Recent opinion polls have shown the business friendly opposition BJP, led by Narendra Modi, holding a strong lead. The party has promised to kick-start the economy, improve infrastructure, contain inflation and promote foreign investment. The danger for equity markets is that they are strongly pricing in a Modi win. Elections are full of surprises and India’s opinion polls have been grossly inaccurate in each of the two previous national elections. In 2004, Congress won even after the polls suggested the BJP would retain power, leading the biggest single-day sell off of stocks in more than four years. In 2009, most opinion polls predicted a close fight, although Congress won with the largest tally in 20 years. Even if business positive Modi wins, the rally in equity markets has been nothing but spectacular given the current economic malaise, leaving them very open to disappointment. Our monthly Business and Consumer Sentiment surveys suggest that companies have turned the corner and appear optimistic that a new government will turn the economy around. Indian politicians are expected to spend around $5 billion on campaigning for elections – so at least this splurge would give India’s staggering economy a temporary boost! The important question is what will happen next? India’s diverse political landscape makes election results hard to forecast and there are 11 days until the polls close. Whatever the outcome is, an unclear verdict or a weak government would worsen the situation. A stable government with clear reform objectives is a must for stronger economic growth in the coming years. Philip Uglow Chief Economist MNI Indicators
  6. 6. MNI China Consumer Report - July 20136 The MNI India Consumer Indicator remained broadly stable in April, with consumers very much in wait- and-see mode before the general election concludes on May 12. Executive Summary
  7. 7. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 7 The MNI India Consumer Indicator remained broadly stable in April, with consumers very much in wait- and-see mode before the general election concludes on May 12. Following a small decline in March and a rise to a 14-month high in February, the Consumer Indicator stood at 125.2 in April compared with 125.8 in March. The Current Indicator, which measures consumers assessment of current conditions, decreased by 1.2% to 114.1 in April from 115.5 in March and the Expectations Indicator remained broadly stable at 132.6 in April compared with 132.8 previously. For the April survey we asked if consumers thought that economic growth in India would be boosted after the general election. Just 40.8% of respondents thought that the Indian economy will improve after the election. Many respondents were concerned about the stability of the government and the type of coalition. 21% thought that elections were not an answer to the issues the country faces and that economic growth will not receive a boost, with many pointing to widespread corruption among parties. A significant portion, 38.2% of the respondents, were uncertain about the impact of the election on the economy. The Consumer Indicator rose in seven out of the ten major Indian cities in April apart from Delhi, Pune and Surat. A sharp improvement in consumer sentiment made Chennai the most optimistic city in April while respondents from Delhi were the least. Consumers were more optimistic about their Current Personal Finances compared with the previous month but a growing number of respondents reported that they did not expect their future Personal Finances to improve. Perceptions about the current state of business improved in April and both short and longer term expectations about future business conditions also increased. A smaller proportion of respondents reported that it was a good time or excellent time to purchase large household goods as compared with the previous month. Consumers’ dissatisfaction with the current level of prices increased in April, while expectations for inflation in a year’s time eased slightly to the lowest since July 2013. The Stock Investment Indicator, which gauges whether it is a good time to invest in the stock market, increased significantly to 110.9 in April from 89.7 in the previous month, as the continued rise in the stock market made many investors better off. The Real Estate Investment Indicator declined for the second consecutive month in April having risen close to the series’ high in February. The Car Purchase Indicator declined in April as consumers’ willingness to purchase a car deteriorated after rising for two consecutive months to the highest level in 10 months in March. MNI India Consumer Indicator - Components PersonalFinance: Current PersonalFinances: Expected DurableBuying Conditions BusinessConditionsin1 Year BusinessConditionsin5 Years 0 100
  8. 8. MNI India Consumer Report - April 20148 All India - Overview Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change MNI India Consumer Indicator 127.8 125.8 125.2 - Jan-14 126.3 -0.6 -0.5% Current Indicator 118.4 115.5 114.1 - Jan-14 116.0 -1.4 -1.2% Expectations Indicator 134.2 132.8 132.6 - Jan-14 133.2 -0.2 -0.1% Personal Finance: Current 125.3 119.4 121.8 Feb-14 - 122.2 2.4 2.0% Personal Finance: Expected 137.4 133.1 130.2 - Jan-14 133.6 -2.9 -2.1% Business Condition: 1 Year 128.2 124.5 126.3 Feb-14 - 126.3 1.8 1.5% Business Condition: 5 Years 136.9 140.8 141.3 series high - 139.7 0.5 0.4% Durable Buying Conditions 111.4 111.6 106.4 - Jan-14 109.8 -5.2 -4.7% Current Business Conditions Indicator 116.0 102.9 106.3 Feb-14 - 108.4 3.4 3.4% Stock Investment Indicator 105.1 89.7 110.9 series high - 101.9 21.2 23.7% Real Estate Investment Indicator 119.1 117.8 114.4 - Jan-14 117.1 -3.4 -2.9% Car Purchase Indicator 73.0 75.3 71.7 - Jan-14 73.3 -3.6 -4.7% Employment Outlook Indicator 121.8 115.7 115.7 - Jan-14 117.7 0.0 0.0% Inflation Expectations Indicator 154.8 154.2 152.2 - Jul-13 153.7 -2.0 -1.3% Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 75.4 67.2 66.3 - series low 69.6 -0.9 -1.4% Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 134.6 133.0 133.6 Feb-14 - 133.7 0.6 0.4%
  9. 9. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 9 All India - Summary 2013 2014 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MNI India Consumer Indicator 123.9 124.5 122.9 119.5 118.7 115.9 120.2 122.5 123.9 121.2 127.8 125.8 125.2 Current Indicator 119.5 120.7 113.7 114.1 113.9 109.3 113.9 117.0 119.0 113.2 118.4 115.5 114.1 Expectations Indicator 126.8 127.0 129.0 123.0 122.0 120.3 124.3 126.2 127.2 126.6 134.2 132.8 132.6 Personal Finance: Current 121.1 122.2 115.8 114.2 116.3 118.0 117.1 123.3 122.5 120.5 125.3 119.4 121.8 Personal Finance: Expected 131.8 131.0 128.3 121.9 122.1 118.4 122.4 125.3 131.0 127.8 137.4 133.1 130.2 Business Condition: 1 Year 117.2 119.4 124.2 121.2 115.3 114.1 119.3 118.2 117.4 119.3 128.2 124.5 126.3 Business Condition: 5 Years 131.6 130.5 134.6 126.0 128.5 128.4 131.3 135.2 133.1 132.7 136.9 140.8 141.3 Durable Buying Conditions 117.9 119.2 111.6 114.0 111.5 100.7 110.7 110.7 115.5 106.0 111.4 111.6 106.4 Current Business Conditions Indicator 120.0 121.0 118.4 113.1 111.4 108.9 108.2 109.1 114.5 108.9 116.0 102.9 106.3 Stock Investment Indicator 102.3 101.4 110.1 105.1 104.5 106.4 96.8 96.8 102.3 102.3 105.1 89.7 110.9 Investment Return 105.1 104.0 102.7 112.7 110.9 125.2 94.0 93.5 100.5 103.0 104.5 82.7 114.6 Stock Price Sentiment 103.7 103.5 100.4 111.9 116.5 124.8 107.5 115.8 105.8 107.4 103.7 128.6 119.3 Stock Market Expec- tations 105.5 103.8 127.8 114.6 119.2 118.8 103.8 112.6 112.1 111.1 114.3 114.9 137.4 Real Estate Invest- ment Indicator 119.9 113.1 115.7 115.1 109.8 109.7 110.4 113.2 114.4 114.2 119.1 117.8 114.4 House Price Expec- tations 139.1 133.3 136.3 135.1 140.8 144.7 148.6 147.9 143.8 143.1 152.6 148.6 145.9 House Buying Sen- timent 121.5 115.5 119.7 114.7 100.6 98.1 95.0 92.8 104.8 94.9 107.7 102.8 102.1 House selling Senti- ment 101.1 109.4 109.0 104.4 111.9 113.6 112.5 101.2 105.4 95.5 102.9 98.2 104.9 Car Purchase Indi- cator 76.4 75.8 69.5 68.5 61.6 60.1 67.1 65.7 73.8 69.2 73.0 75.3 71.7 Car Purchase Expec- tations 109.2 106.0 98.5 105.7 94.3 90.3 98.4 97.7 103.0 99.0 103.2 108.9 102.3 Price of Gasoline Expectations 156.4 154.5 159.5 168.7 171.0 170.2 164.1 166.3 155.4 160.6 157.2 158.3 158.8 Employment Outlook Indicator 123.4 127.9 122.6 120.9 119.2 113.2 114.6 121.0 117.6 112.0 121.8 115.7 115.7 Inflation Expectations Indicator 134.0 136.5 143.9 144.4 152.9 156.1 152.4 159.2 152.6 153.6 154.8 154.2 152.2 Current Prices Satisfac- tion Indicator 96.5 99.7 96.4 93.9 92.6 83.2 90.2 70.2 86.2 75.7 75.4 67.2 66.3 Interest Rates Expecta- tions Indicator 123.0 125.6 120.4 129.6 133.8 136.1 137.5 138.8 140.4 136.3 134.6 133.0 133.6
  10. 10. All India - Records 2012-Current Minimum Maximum Mean Median MNI India Consumer Indicator 115.9 133.7 123.6 123.4 Current Indicator 109.3 128.3 117.2 116.2 Expectations Indicator 120.3 137.3 127.9 127.1 Personal Finance: Current 114.2 135.4 122.0 121.4 Personal Finance: Expected 118.4 141.5 129.4 130.6 Business Condition: 1 Year 114.1 131.8 121.7 119.6 Business Condition: 5 Years 123.9 141.3 132.5 132.3 Durable Buying Conditions 100.7 121.1 112.4 111.6 Current Business Conditions Indicator 102.9 124.9 114.8 115.3 Stock Investment Indicator 89.7 110.9 102.7 102.9 Investment Return 82.7 136.5 108.2 105.8 Stock Price Sentiment 100.4 128.6 110.3 107.4 Stock Market Expectations 103.8 137.4 115.0 113.5 Real Estate Investment Indicator 109.7 119.9 114.9 114.4 House Price Expectations 133.3 152.6 142.7 143.1 House Buying Sentiment 92.8 121.5 107.0 106.1 House Selling Sentiment 95.5 113.6 106.2 105.2 Car Purchase Indicator 60.1 84.0 72.4 72.4 Car Purchase Expectations 90.3 114.8 103.5 104.5 Price of Gasoline Expectations 142.5 171.0 158.7 158.5 Employment Outlook Indicator 112.0 128.3 119.2 119.1 Inflation Expectations Indicator 126.8 159.2 147.6 152.3 Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 66.3 115.9 86.6 88.2 Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 116.6 140.4 130.6 132.2 MNI India Consumer Report - April 201410
  11. 11. Many respondents thought that the Indian economy will improve after the election... ...but there were concerns about the stability of the government and the type of coalition.
  12. 12. Spitzzeile Titel12 Latest economic data from India have been disappointing and dashed hopes of a quick recovery. Economic Landscape
  13. 13. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 13 Latest economic data from India have been disappointing and dashed hopes of a quick recovery. Industrial production fell in February following a small rise in January. Consumer price inflation ticked up again in March owing to higher food prices and the trade deficit widened to the highest level since October, due to higher gold imports in March. The Reserve Bank of India kept the policy rate unchanged at 8% at its April meeting, allowing the rate increases undertaken between September 2013 and January 2014 to work their way through the economy. However, there are increased fears that the monsoon will be below normal and put pressure on food prices and restrain further the RBI’s ability to ease policy later this year. Disappointing economic growth Economic growth in India slowed to 4.7% on the year in the three months to December, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter. It was, though, marginally above the 4.4% rate seen in the same period a year ago. Data on an output basis showed that growth was boosted by services which grew 7% on the year, compared with 4.2% in the previous quarter. A bountiful harvest was expected to translate into strong agricultural growth but output here was disappointing as it slowed to 3.6% compared with 4.6% in the previous quarter. Manufacturing fell back into contraction, declining by 1.9% compared with 1% growth in the previous quarter. The Finance Minister P Chidambaram expects the economy to grow by 4.9% this year and to accelerate to 6% in the next fiscal year. The economy must expand by 5.5% in the January-March quarter to achieve the forecast which on current evidence looks highly unlikely. The RBI has revised down its forecast for 2014 to 4.7% from 4.8% previously owing to weak Economic Growth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32014 industrial production and investment. This would be the first time in 26 years that growth will be below 5% for two successive years. Industrial output slumps Industrial production recorded the sharpest decline in nine months in February, falling by 1.9% on the year following a rise of 0.8% in January. Much of the decline was led by weakness in manufacturing output which contracted by 3.7% on the year following a 0.7% decline in January. Thirteen out of the 22 industry groups within the manufacturing sector contracted in February, led by a 34.1% fall in ‘Radio, TV and communication equipment & apparatus’, followed by 24.6% drop in ‘Electrical machinery & apparatus’ and 21.3% in ‘Wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur’. After increasing 0.7% on the year in January, mining output grew by 1.4% in February. Output of consumer durables, a measure of consumer demand, posted the GDP Y/Y % , fiscal year Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
  14. 14. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201414 Repo rate unchanged at 8% The RBI left the key policy rate unchanged at 8% at its first bi-monthly monetary policy of the financial year on April 1. Governor Raghuram Rajan said that the Reserve Bank’s policy stance will be firmly focused on keeping the economy on a disinflationary glide path that is intended to hit 8% inflation by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016. A central bank panel recently proposed to revamp its policymaking structure by setting a long-term consumer price inflation target of 4%, plus or minus 2%. As inflation remains high, it recommended that the goal should be phased in gradually. fifteenth consecutive decline, falling 9.3% in February compared with an 8.3% decline in the previous month. Capital goods output, a proxy for investment, fell sharply by 17.4% on the year, compared with a decline of 4.1% in January. Inflation ticks up Consumer price inflation rose for the first time in four months to 8.3% compared with a revised 8% rate in February. The rise was driven by an increase in food prices. Food price inflation, which makes up almost half of the basket, increased to 9.1% from 8.6% in the previous month. Softer prices for clothing, footwear, public transport and communication helped to keep core CPI unchanged from the previous month at 7.9%. Wholesale price inflation rose sharply to 5.7% in March from a nine month low of 4.7% in February, with both food and fuel inflation increasing but also a general rise in the price of manufactured goods. In the coming months, there are additional risks of less-than-normal monsoon rains due to possible El Niño effects, which could have a negative impact on India’s agricultural output. Rajan has said that if inflation falls as expected, further policy tightening in the near term is not anticipated. Fiscal budget deficit The government budget deficit stood at Rs. 5.99 trillion in the April-February period, or 114.3% of the target for the year ending March 2014, compared with 97.4% at the same point a year ago. Net tax receipts Industrial Production -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 50 100 150 200 250 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Industrial Production y/y % (RHS) Industrial Production Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Inflation Wholesale Price Inflation* Consumer Price Inflation** Source: *Office of the Economic Advisor, India, **MOSPI
  15. 15. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 15 totalled Rs. 6.27 trillion in the first eleven months to March, while total expenditure was about Rs. 14 trillion. The government has proposed to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.6% of GDP in 2013-14. It plans to defer some subsidy payments to next year, while focusing on speeding up the sale of stakes in state- run firms and minority stakes in some private companies. The government raised over Rs. 610 billion from selling licences for the mobile internet spectrum in February. The fiscal deficit for 2014-15 is projected at 4.1% of GDP and 3% of GDP in 2016-17. Foreign reserves decline Foreign exchange reserves fell slightly to $309.41 billion in the week ending April 18, from $309.44 billion a week earlier, after increasing for seven consecutive weeks. as overseas investors poured money into the stock market. According to the RBI’s weekly statistical supplement, foreign currency assets, the biggest component of the forex reserves, rose by $2.7 billion to $281.55 billion. These are expressed in dollar terms and include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of the non-US currencies such as the euro, pound and yen, held in its reserves. Moves by the RBI over recent months have greatly strengthened India’s foreign exchange reserve position, leaving the country less vulnerable to another run on the currency. The value of India’s gold reserves remained unchanged at $21.56 billion. Trade deficit widens in March India’s trade deficit widened to a five month high in March to $10.5 billion, up from $8.1 billion in February. Exports declined for the second consecutive month on the year to $29.6, 3.2% below the level seen last year, although 15.1% above February’s $25.7 billion. Imports fell 2.1% on the year to $40.1 billion in March and were 18.5% above the $33.8 billion recorded in February. Oil imports climbed from February’s $13.7 billion to $15.8 billion in March, the highest in 24 months. Gold imports rose to $2.7 billion from $1.6 billion in February, suggesting that underlying demand for gold is still firm and would increase if import curbs were lifted. For the fiscal year 2013-14, the trade deficit narrowed to $138.6 billion, down from $189.6 in the previous year aided by a rise in exports and fall in imports. The current account deficit narrowed to $4.2 billion, or 0.9% of GDP in the October-December quarter, from $31.9 billion a year earlier, on the back of curbs on gold imports and a moderate pick-up in exports. The government expects to keep the current account deficit at $45 billion in the fiscal year that ends in March. Car sales shrink in 2013 Passenger car sales decelerated by 4.7% in the fiscal year that ended on March 31, the second consecutive year of decline. For the year as a whole, car sales totalled 17.9 billion, down from 18.7 billion in the previous year. In March, car sales increased by 6.7% over the previous month but were 5.1% below March 2013’s level. Many consumers in India have chosen to defer purchases of vehicles given the slowdown in the economy, higher loan rates and rising fuel prices. The automobile industry is optimistic that sales will increase in 2014 as the economy rebounds and interest rates and inflation stabilise. Companies are looking forward to the new government’s budget to see if the excise tax cut from 12% to 8% that was announced in the interim budget in February will be continued. Many car makers are launching compact cars to attract price sensitive customers and there have been reports that various new car models have generated a lot of interest and are expected to boost sales.
  16. 16. MNI China Consumer Report - July 201316 Following a small decline in March and a rise to a 14-month high in February, the Consumer Indicator remained broadly stable in March. Indicators
  17. 17. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 17 The MNI India Consumer Indicator remained broadly stable in April, with consumers very much in wait- and-see mode before the general election concludes on May 12. Following a small decline in March and a rise to a 14-month high in February, the Consumer Indicator stood at 125.2 in April compared with 125.8 in March. Consumer confidence fell steadily throughout 2013 as the economy weakened, but gained momentum towards the end of the year. Consumer confidence hit a series low in September 2013, but is now just over 1% above the level seen in April a year ago. The Current Indicator, which measures consumers’ assessment of current conditions, decreased by 1.2% to 114.1 in April from 115.5 in March and the Expectations Indicator remained broadly stable at 132.6 in April compared with 132.8 previously. In April, two out of the five components which make up the MNI India Consumer Indicator declined. Current Personal Finances improved but consumers were less optimistic about future Personal Finances, which fell for the second month in a row. Consumers were more optimistic about Business Conditions in One Year, on the belief that the new government will be able to turn the economy around, while their longer term expectations remained broadly stable after rising for two consecutive months. Marred by inflation, consumers were less optimistic about purchasing a large household item in April. 125.2 MNI India Consumer Indicator Remains Stable MNI India Consumer Indicator Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 MNI India Consumer Indicator 123.9 122.5 123.9 121.2 127.8 125.8 125.2 Current 119.5 117.0 119.0 113.2 118.4 115.5 114.1 Expectations 126.8 126.2 127.2 126.6 134.2 132.8 132.6 100 110 120 130 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 MNI India Consumer Indicator 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Current and Expectations Indicators Current Expectations
  18. 18. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201418 125.2 114.1 132.6 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator All India 129.5 123.7 133.4 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator South India 119.3 108.0 126.8 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator North India 128.6 117.5 136.1 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator East India 125.7 110.0 136.2 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator West India 122.7 117.4 126.2 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Central India
  19. 19. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 19 The less timely quarterly consumer survey from the Reserve Bank of India showed that consumers’ expectations improved significantly in March compared with December, in line with our own survey. Respondents reported lower confidence on spending and a small proportion of respondents felt it was a good time for making outlays for big ticket purchases such as motor vehicles and houses, consistent with our monthly survey. Regions The slight decline in the MNI India Consumer Indicator was led by North, West and Central India while consumers in the East and South regions were more optimistic compared with the previous month. In South India, consumer sentiment increased to 129.5 in April from 123.4 in the previous month. In East India, the Consumer Indicator rose to 128.6 from 124.6 in the previous month, although was considerably lower from the level seen in April a year earlier. Consumers remained more optimistic about future rather than current conditions. The Current Indicator declined in all regions apart from South and Central India. Age Consumer sentiment only improved in the youngest age range in April, rising by almost 3% on the month, close to the series high recorded in January 2013. In contrast, consumer sentiment declined in the two other age groups, though was still above the levels seen in the same period a year earlier. The Consumer Indicator for the 18-34 age range rose to 128.1 in April, offsetting the decline to 124.5 in the previous month. All five components of the Consumer Indicator rose apart from Expected Personal 0.4 -0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.8 Personal Finance: Current Personal Finance: Expected Business Condition: 1 Year Business Condition: 5 Year Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator: Contribution to Monthly Change (% pt.)
  20. 20. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201420 Finances which remained broadly stable. The other two components of the Expectations Indicator, Business Conditions in One Year and Five Years rose by 5.8% and 3.2% respectively. Durable Buying Conditions increased for the first time in four months and Current Personal Finances rose to the highest level since January 2013. After a sharp rise in consumer sentiment among 35- 54 year olds in February, confidence has fallen for two consecutive months. The decline in sentiment to 123.6 in April from 126.6 in March was led by Durable Buying Conditions and Expected Personal Finances. The rest of the three components that make up the Consumer Indicator remained broadly stable compared with the previous month. For the oldest age range, 55-64 year olds, sentiment declined to 119.7 offsetting the previous month’s gain to 127.3. Apart from Current Personal Finances, all the other components fell. There were significant declines in consumers’ expectations about future Business Conditions and Durable Buying Conditions. Income Consumer confidence improved in high income households and remained broadly stable among low income households. The Consumer Indicator for households with an average annual income of over INR 432,000 increased almost 5% on the month to a series high of 133.4 in April from 127.1 in March. For households with an average annual income under INR 432,000, the indicator remained broadly stable at 124.3 after declining by 5% to 123.4 in March. Compared with the previous year, confidence has increased 2% among lower income households, while 125.2 128.1 123.6 119.7 Total Indicator 18-34 35-54 55-64 Consumer Indicator: Age Groups for higher income households it has risen by 5%. On average, though, the level of confidence remains greater for higher income households.
  21. 21. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 21 124.3 116.1 129.8 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator < INR 432,000 per annum 133.4 120.8 141.8 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator > INR 432,000 per annum MNI India Consumer Indicator Income Groups
  22. 22. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201422 MNI India Consumer Indicator Main Cities The Consumer Indicator rose in seven out of the ten major Indian cities in April apart from Delhi, Pune and Surat. A sharp improvement in consumer sentiment made Chennai the most optimistic city in April while respondents from Delhi were the least. In the capital Delhi, consumer sentiment declined for the third time in a row to 116.3 from 121.1 in the previous month. All five components that make up the Consumer Indicator declined, apart from Business Conditions in One Year which rose to the highest level in 15 months. In contrast, Expectations for Longer term Business Conditions remained subdued. Perso- nal Finances, both current and expected, remained tight and led to lower optimism for purchase of large household items. In Mumbai, India’s most populous city, consumer sentiment increased for the first time in three months to 129.6 in April from 124.5 in March. Consumers reported higher Personal Finances for the first time in three months and expected a sharp improvement in Business Conditions in One Year. However, expecta- tions for longer term business conditions were weak and fewer respondents were optimistic about buying large household items. Consumer confidence in Bengaluru, the third largest city by population in India, rose sharply following a large decline in the previous month. The Consumer Indicator increased to 138.0 from 121.2 in March, led by significant improvements in both the Current and Expectations Indicators. Consumer sentiment in Bengaluru has been volatile over the past five months and in April, all five components rose apart from Du- rable Buying Conditions which fell slightly to the lowe- st since January. Consumer sentiment rose the most in April in Chen- nai, driven by the festivities of the Tamil New Year. 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Consumer Indicator - Mumbai 109.7 142.9 118.4 135.7 156.1 136.7 101.0 Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Year Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator Components - Mumbai The Consumer Indicator increased from 118.4 in Mar- ch to 139.6 in April and was 5.1% above the same period a year earlier.
  23. 23. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 23 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Consumer Indicator - Delhi 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Consumer Indicator - Bengaluru 103.9 124.6 107.0 125.4 128.9 119.3 100.9 Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Year Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator Components - Delhi 126.5 145.7 148.0 131.0 138.0 168.0 105.0 Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Year Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator Components - Bengaluru
  24. 24. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201424 Consumers were more optimistic about their Current Personal Finances compared with the previous month but a growing number of respondents reported that they did not expect their future Personal Finances to improve. Current Personal Finances, which measures whether the financial situation of a household is better, the same or worse than a year ago, rose to 121.8 in April from 119.4 in March. Current Personal Finances hit a low in the summer of 2013, but have subsequently bounced back and currently stand at around the same level as in April 2013. The percentage of respondents who reported that their current financial situation improved compared with a year ago remained broadly unchanged at 44% compared with 43.5% in March. Those reporting financial conditions were the same as last year increased to 48% from 45.4%, while those reporting a worsening fell to 8.1% from 11.2% previously. Out of those who responded that their financial conditions improved, the majority cited better income as the reason for the improvement. Expected Personal Finances, which measures whether households think their finances will be better in a year’s time, declined for the second month in a row to 130.2 from 133.1 in March. The percentage of respondents reporting that they expected their financial situation to improve in a year’s time fell from 60% to 55.2%. 121.8 Personal Finances Expected Finances Fall Personal Finances Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Current 121.1 123.3 122.5 120.5 125.3 119.4 121.8 Expectations 131.8 125.3 131.0 127.8 137.4 133.1 130.2 100 110 120 130 140 150 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Personal Finances Current Expectations 8.1% 35.8% 48.0% 7.9% 0.3% Current Financial Situation Compared with 1 Year Ago (% of Households) Much Better A Little Better Same A Little Worse Much Worse
  25. 25. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 25 0.4% 2.3% 22.3% 75.0% Monthly Household Income Used for Daily Expenses (% of Households) 29.0% 47.9% 16.1% 6.7% Monthly Household Income Used for Savings (% of Households) 84.5% 10.3% 4.7% 0.5% Monthly Household Income Used for Large Loan Repayment (% of Households) 84.2% 15.1% 0.7% Monthly Household Income Used for Investments (% of Households) How Households Spend their Money 0% - 29% of Income 30% - 49% of Income 0% of Income 1% - 29% of Income 0% of Income 1% - 29% of Income 0% of Income 1% - 29% of Income 50% - 69% of Income 70% - 100% of Income 30% - 49% of Income 50% - 100% of Income 30% - 49% of Income 50% - 100% of Income 30% -49% of Income 50% - 100% of Income
  26. 26. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201426 Perceptions about the current state of business improved in April and both short and longer term expectations about future business conditions also increased. The Current Business Conditions Indicator, which measures respondents’ views on the state of business compared with a year earlier, rose from a series low of 102.9 in March to 106.3 in April. Current business sentiment has declined considerably since the survey started in November 2012 and despite April’s rise, was still 11.4% below the same period a year ago. The proportion of respondents who were positive about business conditions fell from 31.1% in March to 29.9%, while the proportion of those who found them “just fair” increased significantly to 48.6% from 39.7% previously. Respondents who said business conditions were “poor” or “very poor” decreased sharply to 16.8% from 24.4% previously. Expectations for Business Conditions in a Year rose to 126.3 in April from 124.5 in March, as more than half of respondents reported that business conditions would be better in a year’s time. The majority of those who expected business conditions to be better in a year cited economic development as the main reason, although fewer than in the previous month. Respondents who expected business conditions to worsen, cited income and employment as the main reasons. Many respondents 106.3 Business Conditions Longer Term Expectations Hit Record High Business Conditions Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Current 120.0 109.1 114.5 108.9 116.0 102.9 106.3 In 1 Year 117.2 118.2 117.4 119.3 128.2 124.5 126.3 In 5 Years 131.6 135.2 133.1 132.7 136.9 140.8 141.3 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Current Business Conditions Indicator 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year and 5 Years 1 Year 5 Years
  27. 27. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 27 Business Conditions Selected Reasons Government/Policy Econ. Development Income/Employment Resource/Environment Social Stability/ Security Events Government/Policy Econ. Development Income/Employment Resource/Environment Social Stability/ Security Events 29.0% 46.2% 12.2% 7.3% 4.7% 0.6% All India, Reasons for Better 35.4% 32.9% 11.1% 6.0% 13.9% 0.7% All India, Reasons for Worse 69.7% 68.8% 30.3% 31.2% Mar-14 Apr-14 All India expected business conditions to improve after the national elections in the hope that a new government will push forward with business friendly policies. Longer term, Expectations for Business Conditions in Five Years have been on an upward trend since July last year and rose to a series high in April. The indicator increased very slightly to 141.3 from 140.8 previously. Among the major cities surveyed, Chennai was the most optimistic and Bengaluru witnessed the largest jump in expectations from the previous month. Better Worse
  28. 28. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201428 Business Conditions in 1 Year Regions 126.3 121.8 121.5 129.7 134.2 112.5 All India North India South India East India West India Central India Business Expectations North India South India East India West India Central India Reasons for Better (% of Respondents) 62.3% 67.4% 80.5% 71.1% 60.0% 37.7% 32.6% 19.5% 28.9% 40.0% North India South India East India West India Central India Business Expectations: Better or Worse? (% of Respondents) North India South India East India West India Central India Reasons for Worse (% of Respondents) Better Worse Government/Policy Econ. Development Income/Employment Resource/Environment Social Stability/ Security Events Government/Policy Econ. Development Income/Employment Resource/Environment Social Stability/ Security Events
  29. 29. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 29 The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator declined to 106.4 in April from 111.6 in March, as a smaller proportion of respondents reported that it was a good time or excellent time to purchase large household goods. Sentiment on buying conditions fell throughout most of last year, highlighting pressure on consumers’ disposable income, owing to the weakening of the economy and high inflation. The ground lost in 2013 has still not been regained, with the result in April down 9.7% from the same period a year earlier. Out of the ten largest cities surveyed, respondents from Kolkata were the most optimistic about buying a large household item in April. Compared with the previous month, more consumers from Kolkata, Ahmadabad and Chennai thought it was a better time to buy a large household item. The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator decreased in all regions apart from East and Central India. Respondents from East India were the most optimistic about buying durable goods with the indicator rising to 120.2, the highest level in four months. For all India, the proportion of respondents who said it was an “excellent time” or “good time” to buy large household goods declined to 37.6% from 42.5% in the previous month, while the proportion of those saying it was a “bad time” or “very bad time” increased to 20.5% from 18.6%. Durable Buying Conditions Deteriorate in April Durable Buying Conditions Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Durable Buying Conditions 117.9 110.7 115.5 106.0 111.4 111.6 106.4 106.4 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Durable Buying Conditions 0.1% 37.5% 40.0% 16.0% 4.5% 1.9% Is It a Good or Bad Time to Buy Large Household Goods? (% of Households) Excellent Time Good Time Neutral Bad Time Very Bad Time Don‘t Know/No Answer
  30. 30. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201430 The Employment Outlook Indicator remained flat at 115.7 in April after declining significantly in the previous month. The indicator measures opinion on the outlook for the employment market over the next 12 months and the April reading was below the average of the series of 119.2 and 6.3% below the same period a year ago. Respondents from Central and South India expected an improvement in the employment situation in the next 12 months while those from East and West India were less optimistic about the employment outlook. The proportion of respondents who expected an improvement in the Employment Outlook declined to 41.6% in April from 43.8% in March, while those forecasting a worsening also fell to 12% from 14.4%. Those suggesting there would be no change increased from 41.7% to 46.4%. Employment Outlook Indicator Remains Stable Employment Outlook Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Employment Outlook 123.4 121.0 117.6 112.0 121.8 115.7 115.7 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Employment Outlook Indicator 2.4% 39.2% 46.4% 11.4% 0.6% Employment Outlook for the Next 12 Months (% of Households) 115.7 Much Better A Little Better Same A Little Worse Much Worse Don‘t Know/No Answer
  31. 31. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 31 Consumers’ dissatisfaction with the current level of prices increased in April, while expectations for inflation in a year’s time eased slightly to the lowest since July 2013. The Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator declined to a series low of 66.3 in April compared with 67.2 in the previous month. A figure below 100 indicates wider dissatisfaction with the current level of prices. The further below 100, the greater the dissatisfaction. The indicator has trended down since the start of the survey in November 2012 and was above 100 in only the first two months of the survey. India’s consumer price inflation rose again in March to 8.3% from 8% in February. Food price inflation, which makes up almost half of the basket, increased to 9.1% from 8.6% in the previous month. Wholesale price inflation also rose sharply to 5.7% in March from a nine month low of 4.7% in February The Inflation Expectations Indicator, which measures whether respondents think prices will be higher or lower in 12 months’ time, declined to 152.2 from 154.2 in March. Consumers’ expectations for inflation have remained elevated since November 2012 when the series started. Some respondents expected the new government to help bring down price pressures. The percentage of respondents who believed prices would be higher in a year’s time fell from 83.9% to 82.5%, while those saying prices would be about the Prices Sentiment Discontent Hits a New Low Prices Sentiment Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Satisfaction with Current Prices 96.5 70.2 86.2 75.7 75.4 67.2 66.3 Inflation Expec- tations 134.0 159.2 152.6 153.6 154.8 154.2 152.2 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Inflation Expectations Indicator 66.3
  32. 32. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201432 1.1% 16.8% 16.9% 44.1% 21.2% Satisfaction with Current Prices (% of Households) Very Satisfied Quite Satisfied So So Not Very Satisfied Not Satisfied At All Don‘t Know/No Answer 27.2% 55.3% 12.4% 5.0% 0.1% Inflation Expectations in 12 Months (% of Households) Much Higher A Little Higher Same A Little Lower Much Lower Don‘t Know/No Answer same level increased to 12.4% from 9.9% in the previous month. A small proportion of respondents believed prices would be lower in a year’s time. Of those who thought prices would go up, a growing proportion of respondents thought that prices would rise by less than 5%, which was down from expectations of a price rise of 5% in March and between 6% and 9% in February and over 25% in January. Regions Satisfaction with Current Prices worsened significantly in North and Central India, both hitting a series low. In North India, the proportion of respondents who were satisfied with the current level of prices fell from 17.8% to 14.1%, while in Central India, the proportion of satisfied consumers more than halved compared with the previous month. Apart from South and East India, more respondents from the other three regions expected prices to fall in a year’s time as compared with the previous month. Consumers from the West region had the highest inflation expectations on the month, well above the same period a year ago. Prices Sentiment Regions
  33. 33. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 33 66.3 54.9 67.5 80.7 70.9 50.9 All India North India South India East India West India Central India Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 152.2 148.9 147.7 152.4 157.7 152.7 All India North India South India East India West India Central India Inflation Expectations Indicator All India North India South India East India West India Central India Satisfaction with Current Prices (% of Households) Very Satisfied Quite Satisfied Neutral Not Very Satisfied Not Satisfied At All Don‘t Know/No Answer North India South India East India West India Central India Inflation Expectations in 12 Months (% of Households) Much Higher A Little Higher Same A Little Lower Much Lower Don‘t Know/No Answer
  34. 34. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201434 The Interest Rate Expectations Indicator remained broadly stable in April after declining for three consecutive months. The indicator stood at 133.6 in April compared with 133.0 in the previous month, although was well above the outturn of 123.0 recorded in the same period a year ago. Since September 2013, when Raghuram Rajan took over as the Governor of the RBI, interest rates have been hiked three times in order to stabilise the sharp fall of the rupee and control inflation. The RBI left the key policy rate unchanged at 8% at its first bi-monthly monetary policy of the financial year on April 1. Raghuram Rajan said that the Reserve Bank’s policy stance will be firmly focused on keeping the economy on a disinflationary glide path that is intended to hit 8% inflation by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016. If inflation falls as expected, further policy tightening in the near term is not anticipated. Interest Rate Expectations Broadly Stable Interest Rate Expectations Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Interest Rate Expectations 123.0 138.8 140.4 136.3 134.6 133.0 133.6 133.6 100 110 120 130 140 150 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Interest Rate Expectations Indicator 15.2% 43.7% 17.5% 4.7% 1.2% 17.7% Expected Change in Interest Rate in 1 Year (% of Households) Much Higher A Little Higher Same A Little Lower Much Lower
  35. 35. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 35 The Stock Investment Indicator, which gauges whether it is a good time to invest in the stock market, increased significantly to 110.9 in April from 89.7 in the previous month, as the continued rise in the stock market made many investors better off. Indian equities have rallied in recent weeks helped by a growing expectation that the ongoing general election will help to improve economic growth. Some improvement in recent macroeconomic data including a narrower current account deficit has also helped, with the rally in the markets led by strong foreign investment inflows. The benchmark Sensex hit another all-time high of 22,869.85 on April 23. Analysts expect to see increased volatility in the benchmark index during the elections which are set to conclude by May 12. The Indicator is made up of three components. Stock Price Sentiment component, which measures whether respondents view equity prices as high or low and has a negative impact on the overall indicator, declined to 119.3 after a sharp rise to a record high in March to 128.6. The Stock Investment Return component increased significantly to 114.6 in April from 82.7 in March. The proportion of respondents who made a loss in the last year almost halved to 25.7% from 50.1% in the previous month while those who made a profit increased from 28.2% to 53.7%. Expectations for the stock market in three months’ time jumped to 137.4 from 114.9 in March. Stock Investment Indicator Above 100 Investment Sentiment Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Investment Sentiment Indicator 102.3 96.8 102.3 102.3 105.1 89.7 110.9 Investment Return 105.1 93.5 100.5 103.0 104.5 82.7 114.6 Stock Price Sentiment 103.7 115.8 105.8 107.4 103.7 128.6 119.3 Stock Market Expectation 105.5 112.6 112.1 111.1 114.3 114.9 137.4 70 80 90 100 110 120 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Stock Investment Indicator 11.86 3.47 8.38 Investment Return Stock Price Sentiment Stock Market Expectations Stock Investment Indicator: Contribution to Monthly Change (% pt.) 110.9
  36. 36. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201436 110.9 114.6 119.3 137.4 Stock Investment Indicator Investment Return Stock Price Sentiment Stock Market Expectations Stock Investment Indicator - Components 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Stock Price Sentiment 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Investment Return 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Stock Market Expectations Stock Investment Indicator Regions and Components
  37. 37. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 37 The Real Estate Investment Indicator, which gauges whether it is a good time to invest in the housing market, declined for the second consecutive month in April having risen close to the series’ high in February. The indicator fell to 114.4 in April from 117.8 in March, although the three month trend edged up slightly and has now risen for six consecutive months. Sentiment on real estate dipped in the second half of last year before picking up in 2014. Indian developers and contractors are reliant on ties with the government to acquire land or win contracts and many projects are stalled, at least temporarily, until the conclusion of the elections. The Real Estate Investment Indicator is composed of three sub-indicators; House Price Expectations, House Buying Sentiment and House Selling Sentiment. House Buying Sentiment remained relatively stable in April at 102.1 compared with 102.8 in the previous month. There was a decline in the proportion of respondents who said it was an excellent or a good time to buy a house from 38.1% to 35.4%. There was a significant rise in the number of responses from consumers who said it was an okay time for a house purchase. Since May 2013, increasingly more consumers have expected that prices would rise in the next six months. After rising to a series high in February, the House Price Expectations component eased to 145.9 in April, down from 148.6 in March. The proportion of Real Estate Investment Indicator Second Decline in a Row Real Estate Investment Sentiment Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Real Estate Invest- ment Sentiment 119.9 113.2 114.4 114.2 119.1 117.8 114.4 Price Expectations 139.1 147.9 143.8 143.1 152.6 148.6 145.9 House Buying 121.5 92.8 104.8 94.9 107.7 102.8 102.1 House Selling 101.1 101.2 105.4 95.5 102.9 98.2 104.9 114.4 100 105 110 115 120 125 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Real Estate Investment Indicator -0.77 -0.21 -1.89 Price Expectations House Buying Sentiment House Selling Sentiment Real Estate Investment Indicator: Contribution to Monthly Change (% pt.)
  38. 38. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201438 110 120 130 140 150 160 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Real Estate Prices: Expected Changes in Next 6 Months 117.8 102.8 98.2 148.6 114.4 102.1 104.9 145.9 Real Estate Investment Indicator House Buying Sentiment House Selling Sentiment House Price Expectations Real Estate Investment Indicator - Components All India North India South India East India West India Central India Expected Changes in Real Estate Prices in the Next 6 months (% of Households) Real Estate Investment Indicator Components and Balances respondents who thought house prices would rise in the next six months declined from 73.5% to 71.4% in April. The House Selling Sentiment component, which has a negative impact on the Real Estate Investment Indicator, increased significantly above the 100 mark in April to 104.9 from 98.2 in March. Regions The Real Estate Investment Indicator fell in all regions apart from East India where a gain in House Price Expectations led the rise. Respondents in the other regions (North, South, West and Central India) were less optimistic about real estate investment. March 2014 April 2014 Go Up Dramatically Go Up Slightly Stay the Same Gow Down Slightly Go Down Sharply Don‘t Know/No Answer
  39. 39. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 39 80 90 100 110 120 130 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 House Buying Sentiment 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 House Selling Sentiment 37.1% 38.5% 12.4% 5.9% 2.7% 3.4% Reasons for Buying Houses (% of Households) 1.4% 31.6% 34.1% 19.3% 2.6% 10.9% Timing for Selling Houses (% of Households) Excellent Time Good Time Neutral Bad Time Very Bad Time Don‘t Know/No Answer Prices Income/Purchasing Power Investment Value Policy/Interest Rate Supply and Quality Others
  40. 40. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201440 The Car Purchase Indicator declined in April as consumers’ willingness to purchase a car deteriorated after rising for two consecutive months to the highest level in 10 months in March. The indicator fell to 71.7 in April from 75.3 in March. The month’s decline put the indicator below the series average of 72.4 and 6.1% below the same period a year ago. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, passenger car sales decelerated by 4.7% in the fiscal year that ended on March 31, the second consecutive year of decline. The automobile industry is optimistic that sales will increase in 2014 as the economy rebounds and interest rates and inflation stabilise. Companies are looking forward to the new government‘s budget to see if the excise tax cut from 12% to 8%, announced in the interim budget in February, will continue. The Car Purchase Expectations component, which gauges whether consumers believe it is a good or bad time to purchase a car over the next 12 months, declined the most in eight months to 102.3 from 108.9 in March. Of those who thought it would be a good time to buy a car, the majority believed they had better purchasing power. The Indicator on Gasoline Prices, which measures expectations for the price of gasoline in a year, remained broadly stable at 158.8 in April compared with 158.3 in March. Car Purchase Indicator Lowest Since January 50 60 70 80 90 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Car Purchase Indicator 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Car Purchase Indicator - Components Car Purchase Expectations Price of Gasoline Car Purchase Sentiment Apr-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Car Purchase Sentiment 76.4 65.7 73.8 69.2 73.0 75.3 71.7 Car Purchase Expectations 109.2 97.7 103.0 99.0 103.2 108.9 102.3 Price of Gasoline 156.4 166.3 155.4 160.6 157.2 158.3 158.8 71.7
  41. 41. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 41 Car Purchase Indicator Regions 102.3 106.4 96.8 116.3 96.6 108.0 All India North India South India East India West India Central India Car Purchase Expectations - Regions All India North India South India East India West India Central India Reasons for a Bad Time to Buy a Car (% of Households) Prices Income/Purchasing Power Policy/Interest Rate Supply and Quality Cost of Use/Upkeep Others Reasons for a Good Time to Buy a Car (% of Households) All India North India South India East India West India Central India Prices Income/Purchasing Power Policy/Interest Rate Supply and Quality Cost of Use/Upkeep Others 0.9% 29.1% 34.5% 18.9% 3.7% 12.9% Is it a Good Time to Buy a Car? (% of Households) Excellent Good Time Neutral Bad Time Very Bad Time Don‘t Know/No Answer
  42. 42. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201442 For the April survey, which was taken at the start of the month, we asked if consumers thought that economic growth in India will be boosted after the general election. Indian elections started on April 7 and will take place in a series of stages until May 12. Just 40.8% of the respondents thought that the Indian economy will improve after the election. Many respondents said that there were concerns about the stability of the government and the type of coalition. 21% thought that elections were not an answer to the issues the country faces and that economic growth will not receive a boost, with many pointing to widespread corruption among parties. A significant portion, 38.2% of the respondents were uncertain about the impact of the election on the economy. The BJP party is widely seen as benefiting from the rising popularity of its pro-business prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi who has promised to kick start the economy. The latest opinion polls suggest that the BJP and its allies could win the majority of legislative seats in national elections. Special Question Will economic growth in India rise after the general election? 40.8% 21.0% 38.2% Do you think economic growth in India will be boosted after the general election? NoYes Don‘t Know/No Answer
  43. 43. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 43 MNI India Consumer Indicator Regions 108.0 126.8 114.8 130.3 121.8 128.4 101.2 Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Years Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator Components: North India 90 100 110 120 130 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Consumer Indicator: North India 123.7 133.4 131.8 121.9 121.5 156.7 115.5 Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Years Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator Components: South India 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Consumer Indicator: South India
  44. 44. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201444 117.5 136.1 114.8 130.1 129.7 148.4 120.2 Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Years Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator Components: East India 100 110 120 130 140 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Consumer Indicator: East India 110.0 136.2 122.6 136.1 134.2 138.2 97.3 Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Years Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator Components: West India 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Consumer Indicator: West India
  45. 45. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 45 North India South India East India West India Central India Employment Outlook for the Next 12 Months (% of Households) North India South India East India West India Central India Expected Interest Rate on House and Car Loans Indicator Much Better A Little Better About the Same A Little Worse Much Worse Don‘t Know/No Answer 117.4 126.2 122.3 130.4 112.5 135.7 112.5 Current Indicator Expectations Indicator Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Years Durable Buying Conditions Consumer Indicator Components: Central India 110 115 120 125 130 135 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Consumer Indicator: Central India
  46. 46. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201446 All India North India South India East India West India Central India Is it a Good/Bad Time to Buy Large Household Goods? (% of Households) 133.6 130.8 132.1 126.3 138.8 137.5 All India North India South India East India West India Central India Interest Rates Expectations (% of Households) 71.7 71.8 75.3 78.0 66.2 75.0 All India North India South India East India West India Central India Car Purchase Indicator - Regions Much Higher A Little HIgher About the Same A Little Lower Much Lower Don‘t Know/No Answer Excellent Time Good Time Neutral Bad Time Very Bad Time Don‘t Know/No Answer
  47. 47. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 47 MNI India Consumer Indicator Income Groups 124.0 125.2 119.0 145.2 108.3 Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Years Durable Buying Conditions < INR 432,000 - Components 123.4 114.8 129.2 124.3 116.1 129.8 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator < INR 432,000 per annum 133.5 137.2 137.6 150.6 108.1 Personal Finances: Current Personal Finances: Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year Business Conditions: 5 Years Durable Buying Conditions > INR 432,000 - Components 127.1 120.0 131.9 133.4 120.8 141.8 Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator > INR 432,000 per annum March 2014 April 2014 March 2014 April 2014
  48. 48. Spitzzeile Titel48 A selection of comments from the panel of consumers surveyed over the past month. What the Panel Said
  49. 49. “The price of electronic gadgets is decreasing now, so it is a good time to buy such things.” “After the election, business conditions on a whole will improve.” “Lot of IT people in Chennai buy car as a status symbol.” “Excise duty is reduced on consumer durables, cars and electronic products.” “In Mysore, steel and cement prices have come down so house prices are lower.” “Life is hard for the middle class people because of inflation.” “As summer approaches, many are buying air conditioners, coolers and refrigerators.” “If Modi government comes to power, then business conditions will be better.” “Because of corruption, India is not developing in the right manner.” “In the next one year, inflation would decrease.” “Good education and excellent government policies can boost economic growth.” “Property rates are 40% down. If Modi forms the government, then the economic condition will improve.” “Taxes on consumer durable products has been reduced by the government.” “As more and more IT companies are coming in Chennai, the demand for commercial real estate property is giving tough competition to other metropolitan cities.” “Only double income couples can buy a house.” “If AAP comes to power, it will be good for our country.” “If leadership is strong, India will rise and if Manmohan Singh government comes to power again then it will go down.” “Inflation is very high right now. After election, whichever party gets elected, we would like to see how they overcome this problem.” MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 49
  50. 50. MNI China Consumer Report - July 201350 A closer look at the data from the April consumer survey. Data Tables
  51. 51. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 51 North India Overview Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change NorthI India Consumer Indicator 122.9 125.1 119.3 - Jan-14 122.4 -5.8 -4.6% Current Indicator 113.7 112.8 108.0 - Jan-14 111.5 -4.8 -4.3% Expectations Indicator 129.0 133.3 126.8 - Jan-14 129.7 -6.5 -4.8% Personal Finance: Current 121.2 115.3 114.8 - Jan-14 117.1 -0.5 -0.4% Personal Finance: Expected 133.9 142.4 130.3 - Jan-14 135.5 -12.1 -8.5% Business Condition: 1 Year 125.9 127.4 121.8 - Jan-14 125.0 -5.6 -4.4% Business Condition: 5 Years 127.2 130.0 128.4 - Feb-14 128.5 -1.6 -1.2% Durable Buying Conditions 106.2 110.4 101.2 - Jan-14 105.9 -9.2 -8.3% Current Business Conditions Indicator 103.3 90.5 95.5 Feb-14 - 96.4 5.0 5.5% Stock Investment Indicator 101.6 77.1 106.4 Dec-13 - 95.0 29.3 38.1% Real Estate Investment Indicator 120.8 116.8 111.7 - Jan-14 116.4 -5.1 -4.4% Car Purchase Indicator 74.7 69.8 71.8 Feb-14 - 72.1 2.0 2.9% Employment Outlook Indicator 115.3 103.9 103.9 - series low 107.7 0.0 0.0% Inflation Expectations Indicator 156.4 158.3 148.9 - Aug-13 154.5 -9.4 -6.0% Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 71.3 60.8 54.9 - series low 62.3 -5.9 -9.7% Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 130.7 133.3 130.8 - Feb-14 131.6 -2.5 -1.9%
  52. 52. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201452 South India Overview Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change South India Consumer Indicator 135.1 123.4 129.5 Feb-14 - 129.3 6.1 4.9% Current Indicator 132.2 120.0 123.7 Feb-14 - 125.3 3.7 3.1% Expectations Indicator 137.0 125.7 133.4 Feb-14 - 132.0 7.7 6.1% Personal Finance: Current 139.2 124.5 131.8 Feb-14 - 131.8 7.3 5.9% Personal Finance: Expected 142.0 114.6 121.9 Feb-14 - 126.2 7.3 6.3% Business Condition: 1 Year 125.6 110.9 121.5 Feb-14 - 119.3 10.6 9.5% Business Condition: 5 Years 143.6 151.4 156.7 series high - 150.6 5.3 3.5% Durable Buying Conditions 125.3 115.5 115.5 Feb-14 - 118.8 0.0 0.0% Current Business Conditions Indicator 138.6 110.7 107.4 - series low 118.9 -3.3 -3.0% Stock Investment Indicator 104.6 98.2 108.8 Jun-13 - 103.9 10.6 10.8% Real Estate Investment Indicator 116.2 114.6 109.4 - Jan-14 113.4 -5.2 -4.6% Car Purchase Indicator 82.7 84.7 75.3 - Nov-13 80.9 -9.4 -11.2% Employment Outlook Indicator 134.9 125.5 126.8 Feb-14 - 129.1 1.3 1.0% Inflation Expectations Indicator 156.7 143.6 147.7 Feb-14 - 149.3 4.1 2.9% Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 96.2 64.0 67.5 Feb-14 - 75.9 3.5 5.3% Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 146.8 127.3 132.1 Feb-14 - 135.4 4.8 3.8%
  53. 53. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 53 East India Overview Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change East India Consumer Indicator 129.4 124.6 128.6 Feb-14 - 127.5 4.0 3.3% Current Indicator 116.0 112.7 117.5 Jan-14 - 115.4 4.8 4.3% Expectations Indicator 138.3 132.5 136.1 Feb-14 - 135.6 3.6 2.7% Personal Finance: Current 122.3 109.0 114.8 Feb-14 - 115.4 5.8 5.3% Personal Finance: Expected 139.9 128.2 130.1 Feb-14 - 132.7 1.9 1.5% Business Condition: 1 Year 129.0 130.5 129.7 - Feb-14 129.7 -0.8 -0.7% Business Condition: 5 Years 146.1 138.8 148.4 series high - 144.4 9.6 7.0% Durable Buying Conditions 109.7 116.4 120.2 Dec-13 - 115.4 3.8 3.3% Current Business Conditions Indicator 113.5 109.3 120.7 Jun-13 - 114.5 11.4 10.4% Stock Investment Indicator - - - - - - - - Real Estate Investment Indicator 132.4 124.2 126.1 Feb-14 - 127.6 1.9 1.6% Car Purchase Indicator 79.4 79.9 78.0 - Jan-14 79.1 -1.9 -2.4% Employment Outlook Indicator 115.7 111.0 106.6 - Jan-14 111.1 -4.4 -3.9% Inflation Expectations Indicator 149.8 145.1 152.4 Dec-13 - 149.1 7.3 5.0% Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 65.0 72.3 80.7 Oct-13 - 72.7 8.4 11.7% Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 120.4 115.3 126.3 Jan-14 - 120.7 11.0 9.5%
  54. 54. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201454 West India Overview Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change West India Consumer Indicator 126.1 127.6 125.7 - Dec-13 126.5 -1.9 -1.5% Current Indicator 113.9 115.2 110.0 - Sep-13 113.0 -5.2 -4.6% Expectations Indicator 134.3 135.9 136.2 Nov-12 - 135.5 0.3 0.2% Personal Finance: Current 121.6 121.7 122.6 Jan-14 - 122.0 0.9 0.7% Personal Finance: Expected 136.6 138.2 136.1 - Jan-14 137.0 -2.1 -1.6% Business Condition: 1 Year 131.1 128.7 134.2 Nov-12 - 131.3 5.5 4.2% Business Condition: 5 Years 135.2 140.8 138.2 - Feb-14 138.1 -2.6 -1.8% Durable Buying Conditions 106.1 108.7 97.3 - series low 104.0 -11.4 -10.5% Current Business Conditions Indicator 110.9 105.0 107.8 Feb-14 - 107.9 2.8 2.6% Stock Investment Indicator 106.6 83.3 113.0 Jun-13 - 101.0 29.7 35.7% Real Estate Investment Indicator 114.9 116.8 114.1 - Dec-13 115.3 -2.7 -2.3% Car Purchase Indicator 62.9 71.2 66.2 - Feb-14 66.8 -5.0 -7.0% Employment Outlook Indicator 119.7 120.2 119.2 - Sep-13 119.7 -1.0 -0.8% Inflation Expectations Indicator 153.5 160.6 157.7 - Feb-14 157.3 -2.9 -1.8% Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 69.7 70.6 70.9 Jan-14 - 70.4 0.3 0.4% Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 134.2 142.5 138.8 - Feb-14 138.5 -3.7 -2.6%
  55. 55. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 55 Central India Overview Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change Central India Consumer Indicator 125.9 131.9 122.7 - Jan-14 126.8 -9.2 -7.0% Current Indicator 113.1 116.5 117.4 Dec-13 - 115.7 0.9 0.8% Expectations Indicator 134.4 142.1 126.2 - Jan-14 134.2 -15.9 -11.2% Personal Finance: Current 113.9 126.3 122.3 - Feb-14 120.8 -4.0 -3.1% Personal Finance: Expected 133.6 149.2 130.4 - Jan-14 137.7 -18.8 -12.6% Business Condition: 1 Year 129.5 128.0 112.5 - Jan-14 123.3 -15.5 -12.1% Business Condition: 5 Years 140.2 149.2 135.7 - Jan-14 141.7 -13.5 -9.0% Durable Buying Conditions 112.3 106.8 112.5 Dec-13 - 110.5 5.7 5.4% Current Business Conditions Indicator 114.8 97.5 108.0 Feb-14 - 106.8 10.5 10.9% Stock Investment Indicator 116.7 - 133.3 series high - 83.3 133.3 0.0% Real Estate Investment Indicator 118.3 125.7 121.1 - Feb-14 121.7 -4.6 -3.6% Car Purchase Indicator 70.1 73.7 75.0 Dec-13 - 72.9 1.3 1.7% Employment Outlook Indicator 123.8 111.9 121.4 Feb-14 - 119.0 9.5 8.5% Inflation Expectations Indicator 158.2 163.6 152.7 - Jan-14 158.2 -10.9 -6.7% Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 65.6 76.3 50.9 - series low 64.3 -25.4 -33.3% Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 136.1 139.8 137.5 - Feb-14 137.8 -2.3 -1.7%
  56. 56. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201456 All India Overview by Age Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change Age 18-34 MNI India Consumer Indicator 127.5 124.5 128.1 Jan-13 - 126.7 3.6 2.9% Current Indicator 117.1 114.5 118.1 Dec-13 - 116.6 3.6 3.1% Expectations Indicator 134.3 131.2 134.8 series high - 133.4 3.6 2.8% Personal Finance: Current 124.6 121.1 126.5 Jan-13 - 124.1 5.4 4.5% Personal Finance: Expected 141.1 131.5 130.9 - Jan-14 134.5 -0.6 -0.5% Business Condition: 1 Year 126.0 121.6 128.6 Jan-13 - 125.4 7.0 5.8% Business Condition: 5 Years 135.8 140.4 144.9 series high - 140.4 4.5 3.2% Durable Buying Conditions 109.7 108.0 109.6 Feb-14 - 109.1 1.6 1.5% Age 35-54 MNI India Consumer Indicator 130.2 126.6 123.6 - Jan-14 126.8 -3.0 -2.4% Current Indicator 121.7 117.1 111.4 - Sep-13 116.7 -5.7 -4.8% Expectations Indicator 135.9 133.0 131.7 - Jan-14 133.5 -1.3 -0.9% Personal Finance: Current 127.9 119.4 118.4 - Aug-13 121.9 -1.0 -0.8% Personal Finance: Expected 137.0 134.7 130.3 - Jan-14 134.0 -4.4 -3.3% Business Condition: 1 Year 130.4 124.0 124.8 Feb-14 - 126.4 0.8 0.6% Business Condition: 5 Years 140.2 140.1 140.1 Feb-14 - 140.1 0.0 0.0% Durable Buying Conditions 115.5 114.8 104.4 - Jan-14 111.6 -10.4 -9.0% Age 55-64 MNI India Consumer Indicator 120.5 127.3 119.7 - Jan-14 122.5 -7.6 -6.0% Current Indicator 109.8 114.1 107.8 - Jan-14 110.6 -6.3 -5.5% Expectations Indicator 127.6 136.1 127.6 - Jan-14 130.4 -8.5 -6.3% Personal Finance: Current 117.8 113.6 117.6 Feb-14 - 116.3 4.0 3.5% Personal Finance: Expected 128.6 131.9 127.9 - Jan-14 129.5 -4.0 -3.0% Business Condition: 1 Year 126.1 133.1 122.1 - Dec-13 127.1 -11.0 -8.3% Business Condition: 5 Years 128.0 143.3 132.7 - Feb-14 134.7 -10.6 -7.4% Durable Buying Conditions 101.9 114.6 98.1 - Dec-12 104.9 -16.5 -14.4%
  57. 57. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 57 All India - Overview by Income Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change < INR 432,000 per annum MNI India Consumer Indicator 129.8 123.4 124.3 Feb-14 - 125.8 0.9 0.7% Current Indicator 121.2 114.8 116.1 Feb-14 - 117.4 1.3 1.1% Expectations Indicator 135.6 129.2 129.8 Feb-14 - 131.5 0.6 0.5% Personal Finance: Current 127.0 115.1 124.0 Feb-14 - 122.0 8.9 7.7% Personal Finance: Expected 139.1 125.9 125.2 - Jan-14 130.1 -0.7 -0.6% Business Condition: 1 Year 130.5 117.9 119.0 Feb-14 - 122.5 1.1 0.9% Business Condition: 5 Years 137.3 143.6 145.2 series high - 142.0 1.6 1.2% Durable Buying Conditions 115.4 114.5 108.3 - Jan-14 112.7 -6.2 -5.5% > INR 432,000 per annum MNI India Consumer Indicator 132.6 127.1 133.4 series high - 131.0 6.3 4.9% Current Indicator 123.2 120.0 120.8 Feb-14 - 121.3 0.8 0.7% Expectations Indicator 138.9 131.9 141.8 series high - 137.5 9.9 7.5% Personal Finance: Current 134.1 128.6 133.5 Feb-14 - 132.1 4.9 3.8% Personal Finance: Expected 142.9 134.8 137.2 Feb-14 - 138.3 2.4 1.7% Business Condition: 1 Year 128.0 121.0 137.6 series high - 128.9 16.6 13.7% Business Condition: 5 Years 145.9 139.7 150.6 series high - 145.4 10.9 7.8% Durable Buying Conditions 112.2 111.3 108.1 - Sep-13 110.5 -3.2 -3.0%
  58. 58. MNI India Consumer Report - April 201458 Methodology The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Survey is a wide ranging monthly survey of consumer confidence across India. Data is collected via telephone interviews. At least 1,000 interviews are conducted each month across the country. The survey adopts a similar methodology to the University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumer sentiment. The main MNI India Consumer Indicator is derived from five questions, two on current conditions and three on future expectations: 1) Current personal financial situation compared to a year ago 2) Current willingness to buy major household items 3) Personal financial situation one year from now 4) Overall business conditions one year from now 5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years Indicators relating to specific questions in the report are diffusion indices with 100 representing a neutral level, meaning positive and negative answers are equal. Values above 100 indicate increasing positivity while values below show increasing negativity.
  59. 59. MNI India Consumer Report - April 2014 59 Insight and data for better decisions Discovering trends in Emerging Markets MNI’s new indicators explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence in Russia, India and China. Our data and monthly reports present an advance picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers. Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify economic trends and make informed investment and business decisions. Our data moves markets. www.mni-indicators.com
  60. 60. Published by MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Westferry House 11 Westferry Circus London E14 4HE www.mni-indicators.com @MNIIndicators.com Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.

×