Mml media trends talk


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Mml media trends talk

  1. 1. Chris ThomasMedia Measurement<br />How smart communicators can use traditional and social media analytics to drive competitive advantage<br />The Slow Death of Newspapers? (…and other media trends)<br />
  2. 2. A Press Communicator Perspective on Media Trends<br />This talk uses hard data to investigate the scale and speed of what is widely understood to be a decline in size and importance of traditional media (and a corresponding rise of social media). <br />There will be a 25 minute tour around trends in media consumption, composition and reach, capped with our view of 5 rising – possibly unexpected - media trends that communicators should have on their radars.<br />Introduction<br />
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION<br />3<br />Key Questions<br />How has the media landscape (for newspapers in particular) changed? <br />What has been the effect of web-based social technologies on the traditional media landscape? <br />What are the implications of these changes for communicators? <br />
  4. 4. Demographic Trends<br />Tracking quantitative trend data around the consumption of various media types by age and socioeconomic class and an insight into the purposes - eg recommendation, validation, research - for which different channels are used<br />
  5. 5. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS<br />5<br />Rising Importance of the Internet<br />Agreement with newspaper lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2008<br />SOURCE: GB TGI, BMRB Q4 (July-June), 2008<br /><ul><li> While half of consumers read a newspaper most days, they are at least as likely to turn to the internet for information
  6. 6. As well as online news delivered via websites, contributing factors to falls in newspaper print sales include digital and audio / video media delivered via web apps, available via smartphones, netbooks / tablets and MP3 players, and the rise of freesheets like Metro
  7. 7. In this context, analysts suggest that newspaper readership is in fact healthy – and indicative of a strong core demand</li></li></ul><li>DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS<br />6<br />Rising Importance of the Internet<br /><ul><li> Younger age demographics and ABC1s are the most likely to make the internet their first port of call for information
  8. 8. For ABC1s, the inverse is true of television</li></ul>Agreement with newspaper lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2008<br />SOURCE: GB TGI, BMRB Q4 (July-June), 2008<br />
  9. 9. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS<br />7<br />The Relevance of Rising Internet Use <br />-1<br />+3<br />+2<br />-2<br />Types of websites browsed for information purposes in the last three months, October 2008 and January 2009<br />SOURCE: Ipsos MORI/Mintel<br />
  10. 10. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS<br />8<br />Demographics – Key Trends<br />CHANGING HABITS<br /><ul><li>20% of consumers now say that they read no newspaper regularly, reflecting increasing choice and diversity in the media</li></ul>CONSUMERS DEMAND INNOVATION<br /><ul><li>Consumers are increasingly demanding of a wide range of content – a trends that aligns well with the ability of online editions to innovate by enabling curation tools, and creating audio-visual content</li></ul>AGE / CLASS TRENDS SLOW DECLINE?<br /><ul><li>An aging and increasingly affluent population could arrest the speed and scale of disruption to newspaper sales (and readership)</li></ul>FROM A PUSH TO PULL NEWS CULTURE<br /><ul><li>Consumers are becoming more savvy about use of the internet to research issues of interest, to challenge and validate what they read about in media sources</li></li></ul><li>Newspaper Trends<br />Tracking quantitative trend data about the penetration and commercial success of the national newspaper market in the UK<br />
  11. 11. NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />10<br />Who Reads Newspapers? <br /><ul><li> Despite plummeting sales, the sky isn’t falling: newspaper readership holds up well </li></ul>…however…<br /><ul><li> The importance of Sunday editions has declined
  12. 12. New newspaper markets are opening up in the form of free sheets and online editions</li></ul>Regular newspaper readership, by gender, December 2008<br />SOURCE: BMRB/Mintel<br />
  13. 13. NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />11<br />Who Reads Newspapers? <br /><ul><li> Likelihood to read a national newspaper correlates with increasing age</li></ul>…however…<br /><ul><li> Free sheets seem to have taken a significant part of the market in the 25 – 34 bracket
  14. 14. And there is a surprisingly similar profile of readership between socio-economic classes…
  15. 15. …though consumption of online newspaper editions is very much a AB / C1 phenomenon</li></ul>Regular newspaper readership, by age and socioeconomic class, December 2008<br />SOURCE: BMRB/Mintel<br />
  16. 16. NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />12<br />Who Reads Newspapers? <br />Type of newspaper regularly read, 1999-2008<br />SOURCE: BMRB/Mintel<br /><ul><li> National dailies have maintained readership over the past decade
  17. 17. Saturday editions have increased their popularity, and this has contributed to the significant decline in readership of Sunday titles
  18. 18. 20% of consumers read no newspapers regularly – a number that has increased over the past decade, but which corresponds to the size of sales decline</li></li></ul><li>NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />13<br />How Rising Internet Use Impacts on Newspapers<br />Internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, by demographic sub-group, 2003-09<br />SOURCE: Ipsos MORI/Mintel<br />
  19. 19. NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />14<br />How Rising Internet Use Impacts on Newspapers<br /><ul><li> Internet penetration rose steeply in the five years to July 2008 and continued that climb to October 2008
  20. 20. Around eight in ten under-55s and ABC1s now have access.
  21. 21. Over-65s and DEs are least likely to be online, implying a mix of lack of interest and lack of means.
  22. 22. That said, their access is likely to continue to rise.</li></ul>Internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, by demographic sub-group, 2003-09<br />SOURCE: Ipsos MORI/Mintel<br />
  23. 23. NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />15<br />…How Does Readership Relate to Sales?<br />Trends in average circulation/issue for national daily and Sunday newspapers, 2003-09 (index)<br />SOURCE: ABC/Mintel<br /><ul><li> There has been a steady and significant decline in average newspaper circulation per issue over a sustained period, which belies the generally “strong” impression given by readership surveys
  24. 24. This is because, while per-issue readership levels are declining, the number of readers over a year is rising
  25. 25. In other words, the habit of regularity is being eroded – this is having a significant impact on newspaper business viability</li></li></ul><li>NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />16<br />…How Does Readership Relate to Sales?<br />Total annual sales of national daily & Sunday newspapers, by volume, 2003-13 (index)<br />SOURCE: WARC/Mintel<br /><ul><li> Projecting forward, the national newspaper market is in the grip of a seemingly irreversible decline, accelerated by increased channel diversity, especially from digital
  26. 26. However, as well as new challenges, technology has brought new opportunities for publishers to extend their brands into other formats
  27. 27. Mintel expects this trend to extend, “so that a newspaper should in effect be recognised as a multi-faceted product – in print, online, tailored emails, phone applications and whatever new developments there may be” </li></li></ul><li>Industry Trends<br />Covering market disruption by digital media and assumptions about the decline of newspapers<br />
  28. 28. NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />18<br />Newspapers – Key Trends<br />MARKET DECLINE<br /><ul><li>The national newspaper market has continued its decline (15% circ drop between 2003 & 2008). Sunday populars are hit hardest, while qualities outperformed the rest of the market</li></ul>INCREASED DIVERSITY<br /><ul><li>The internet is important (current ratio of online:print readers is 10:1) – but also other innovations such as freesheets and “light” editions have also contributed to changed consumption and habits, and undermined traditional models of regular readership</li></ul>CONTENT INNOVATION<br /><ul><li>The most successful newspaper online editions have developed value propositions clearly differentiated from other content available online, including web-unique and audio or video content</li></ul>SUPPORTING A “SELF-SERVE” CULTURE<br /><ul><li>For publishers, innovation is key – especially in terms of “content curation” ie helping to ensure content is relevant to readers by virtue of geolocation, social network or other interest or preference</li></li></ul><li>MEDIA INDUSTRY TRENDS<br />19<br />Top Line Trends<br />Media competition for audiences has accelerated. Dominance by one single channel is a thing of the past – the decline in market share of any one single source is a natural outcome of media fragmentation<br />Fragmentation is one side of the coin, explosion is the other. Social media has unearthed a clear demand for the curation of content relevant to an individual’s interests. Newspapers are well placed to enable curation<br />Data shows newspaper publishers are benefiting from innovation, and from the internet – online editions are attracting more readers than print editions are losing<br />Despite expectation that print sales will continue to fall, newspapers will persist – though perhaps as multi-channel “brands”, distributing original content in print and through web sites, mobile apps and other such mechanisms<br />
  29. 29. NEWSPAPER TRENDS<br />20<br />Newspapers: The Future<br />DECLINE, BUT NOT DEATH<br />Sales are likely to continue to fall, but demographic trends should arrest the speed of decline<br />WEAKER PLAYERS SHAKEN OUT<br />Continued pressure on both circulation and advertising sales may shake one or more of the weaker players out of the market – popular tabloid press seems most vulnerable <br />INNOVATION WILL PAY<br />Innovative publishers, with owners willing and able to invest will perform best in the long term. The internet has already enabled print newspapers to do many things better (eg share price or event listings), and more innovations along similar lines will follow – watch in particular for visual journalism and initiatives leveraging open data<br />
  30. 30. 5 Trends to Watch<br />5 media industry trends that RBS communicators should have on their radar<br />
  31. 31. TRENDS TO WATCH<br />22<br />Shortening News Cycles<br />WHAT?<br />Social media in general, as well as the various trends around content-on-demand, mobile and social search contribute to a huge disruption to the concept of the traditional ‘news cycle’<br />WHY?<br />Minimal barriers to entry for web publishing, weakened legal and ethical norms in social media dramatically shorten news cycles. Persistent content on the internet can mean assets or liabilities exist for years – “good days to bury bad news” no longer exist <br />WHEN?<br />Has been happening for some time, but few organisations are truly prepared for the new demands of a 24 / 7 / 365 news media<br />
  32. 32. TRENDS TO WATCH<br />23<br />The Death of Press Clippings<br />"I think that when it comes to press cuttings, I personally am strongly with you, that I cannot see a reason why you couldn't use electronic methods of doing this.” – Sir Gus O’Donnell, Cabinet Secretary<br />WHAT?<br />Decline of traditional clipping / scanned PDF model of press monitoring<br />WHY?<br />Partly monetary, driven by disruption of traditional clipping services by automated monitoring and scraping tools, and partly functional, driven by increasing utility of text analytic technology<br />WHEN?<br />Already happening – many companies have already successfully “gone electronic”. Organisational inertia is the main barrier<br />
  33. 33. TRENDS TO WATCH<br />24<br />Media Multi-tasking<br />WHAT?<br />Media multitasking involves using TV, the web, radio, telephone, print, or any other media in conjunction with another. This behavior has emerged as increasingly common, especially among younger consumers<br />WHY?<br />Twitter has been a key driver of media multi-tasking – particularly as a ‘backchannel’ for discussion about TV or other real time events. The marketing opportunity is for cross-media advertising; the communications threat is to manage reputation in real-time in multiple channels<br />WHEN?<br />Already happening for TV programmes such as Newsnight, and professional conferences / events<br />
  34. 34. TRENDS TO WATCH<br />25<br />Rise of the “Influencer”<br />WHAT?<br />Implementation of social dimension in web services – meaning that consumers are primarily served content that is recommended, linked or otherwise curated by their personal network. Some individuals embrace the role of curator – and hence influencer – more readily (and successfully) than others<br />WHY?<br />Partly as a reaction to attempts to “game” web search, and partly as a genuine attempt to improve relevance, and hence value of web services<br />WHEN?<br />Happening right now – some companies are faster to adjust than others <br />
  35. 35. TRENDS TO WATCH<br />26<br />Social Search, Mobile Media and Geolocation<br />WHAT?<br />Implementation of social or location elements to web services – meaning that consumers are primarily served content that is relevant to their network, their physical location, or geographic areas of interest <br />WHY?<br />Again, primarily to improve the relevance and value of web services. Particularly interesting in the context of the dramatically rising use of web-enabled mobile devices <br />WHEN?<br />Geolocation applications like Foursquare have been in existence for some time, and geolocation is starting to find its way into deal, discount and recommendation sites online<br />
  36. 36. Questions?<br />Chris Thomas<br /><br />+44 7970 665497<br />Copyright Media Measurement Ltd 2011<br />27<br />