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The Augmented Reality Retail Hype Cycle 2012

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This is a presentation I gave at the 2012 Augmented Reality Event on the AR Retail Hype Cycle. This covers different areas of AR commerce and retail such as digital living room, tablets, smartphones, web and in-store kiosks. Each different segment is plotted against the "AR Retail" Hype Cycle with supporting info.

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The Augmented Reality Retail Hype Cycle 2012

  1. 1. THE AR RETAIL HYPE CYCLE Matt Szymczyk (Sim-check) Founder & CEO matt@zugara.com
  2. 2. We Develop The Webcam Social ShopperIt replicates the ‘at the rack’ moment…
  3. 3. …Online.“The apparel and accessories category will lead ecommerce sales growth through 2016” - eMarketer
  4. 4. The Company We KeepBrandsRetailersDistributionPartners
  5. 5. The Gartner Hype Cycle (July 2011)
  6. 6. Something To Keep In MindWe’ll be discussing the market viability and scalabilityof AR technology triggers FOR RETAIL within today’s marketplace, not 2 years from now, or 5. AR TRIGGERS 2.Digital Living Room 3.Out Of Home – In Store Kiosks 4.Smartphones 5.Tablet 6.Web
  7. 7. The Digital Living Room For AR Retail Kinect has shipped over 18 million units worldwide. Thats shipped, not sold. (January 2012)
  8. 8. The Digital Living Room For AR Retail No Expectations, No ProductExpectations CURRENT ISSUES •Hardware Penetration •Software Access •iTV Specs / Asset Costs * Time
  9. 9. Tablets For AR Retail 60 Million Tablets Sold In 2011 (Worldwide) - Gartner
  10. 10. Tablets For AR Retail Expectations IncreasingExpectations CURRENT ISSUES •Hardware Penetration •Applications Aren’t Native •Usability (Limited to 1-3 ft exp) •Consumer Usage Habits * * Time
  11. 11. Tablets Usage Habits
  12. 12. Tablets Still Suffer From “BSOS” • The US has the highest rate of tablet usage in the world at just 11% of all consumers. • Tablet usage is dwarfed by PC usage. • In the US, 73% of smartphone- toting consumers also use a laptop or other portable computer, and 57% use a desktop PC. Only 17% of this audience uses a tablet. Google – “Mobile Internet Smartphone Adoption Insights Report”
  13. 13. Out Of Home / In Store Kiosks For AR Retail October 2010
  14. 14. Out Of Home / In Store Kiosks For AR Retail Some ExpectationsExpectations CURRENT ISSUES •3D Asset Costs * •3D Camera Realities •Long Term Consumer Benefits? • Will The Novelty Wear Off? * • ROI? * Time
  15. 15. Smartphones For AR Retail472 Million Smartphones Sold In 2011 (Worldwide) - Gartner
  16. 16. Smartphones For AR Retail Huge Market. Huge ExpectationsExpectations CURRENT ISSUES 3.Hardware ** 4.Market Fragmentation 5.Consumer Benefits? • Usability * • Reality vs Expectations * Time
  17. 17. A Bit More On The App Ecosystem Over 1 million Apps Between Apple & Android 600k+ Apple / 450k+ Android People Use Apps For …And They Don’t Use Gaming & Socializing… Them For Long
  18. 18. A Bit More On M-Commerce Forrester predicts mobile commerce will account for only 7 percent of all ecommerce sales by 2016 and 1 percent of overall sales. Forrester Research Report, "Mobile Commerce Forecast: 2011 to 2016"
  19. 19. Web For AR Retail“Today the industry sells more than 1 million PCs each day and there are 1.5 billion PCs in use worldwide” - Intel
  20. 20. Web For AR Retail Low ExpectationsExpectations CURRENT ISSUES 3.Married To 2D & Flash ** 4.Consumer’s Hardware Specs 5.Perception - Not Seen As Sexy * * * Time
  21. 21. If You’re Not Fishing Where The Fish Are…
  22. 22. One Consistent Issue – 3D Assets 3D CAD Models Are Rare In Retail, And Non-Existent For Apparel
  23. 23. Will HTML5 Be A Magic Bullet?
  24. 24. It’s Time To Be Productive… What Can We Do To Get HERE, Faster? *
  25. 25. 5) Have A Vision & Focus On What You Do Best It’s A Land Rush, Stake Your Claim. Don’t Get Distracted.
  26. 26. 4) Be Honest About Today’s Capabilities We’re Not A Virtual Fitting Room Because: “Fit” Can’t Be Done In A Way That Meets Shopper’s Expectations. With A 2D Or Depth Sensing Camera.
  27. 27. 3) Collect & Share Data Publicly … ROI
  28. 28. 2) Focus On Solving Real Problems For Shoppers And/Or Retailers
  29. 29. 1) Sell Today’s Benefits, Not Tomorrow’s “Dreams”“You could not do AR with a display like this… In one simple fake video,Google has created a level of over-hype and over-expectation that their hardware cannot possibly live up to… It’s going to generate ideas in people and expectations that just might not match.” - Blair MacIntyre, Director of the Augmented Environments Lab at Georgia Tech
  30. 30. THANK YOU! matt@zugara.com @kobrakai

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