Security and Terrorism

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Victor Finkel, reigning Worlds Champion and Worlds Best Speaker, gives a session on Security and Terrorism.

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  • Just Cause: Commonly agree responding to acts of open aggression. But how draw the line? Invasion – Insult – Trade Embargo? Reactive or Pre-emptive? Greater effect vs conjecture? Slippery Slope?Legit irrelevantRight Intention; oil etc. Justifiable, resenemtnet etc?Why are soliders legitimate targets? Volunteerism; Boxing ring analogy. Threat to invader. Soldiers at home? IN Civ gear? Civs who shelter fighters? Human shields, willing or not? Collective Responsibility for actions of government? Financiers of war?Proportionality – Avoid escalation; Minimise necessary suffering. Is Israels’ response to Rocket’s proportional? What is proportional?Where does assassination sit here? Aim: discourage retaliatory tit for tat and escalation. Key distinction. Israel/Palestine – Try for War Crimes
  • Confessions through torture are not admissable in any civilised country – say what want to hearUzbek confessions in exchange for showing valuable partner in woT; increased military aidEgypt Emergency Powers – USMalaysia indefinite detention powers w/ ref to Guantanamo BayRussia uses Abu Ghraib defence of ‘bad apples’ to defend abus in Chechnya
  • Think Iraq / Afghanistan – quick initial invasion vs insurgency Evin IF – e.g. Musharaff; e.g. Emerson Mnangagwa; e.g. Kim Il Sung?
  • Security and Terrorism

    1. 1. SECURITY: WAR & TERRORISM<br />Victor Finkel<br />
    2. 2. CONCEPTS<br />
    3. 3. Just War Theory<br />“Jus ad bellum” - Right to go to War<br />Just Cause<br />Last Resort<br />Declared by Legitimate Authority<br />Right Intention<br />Reasonable Chance of Success<br />End Proportional to Means<br />“Jus in bello” – Right conduct within War<br />Discrimination<br />Who are legitimate targets of war?<br />Proportionality<br />How much force is appropriate?<br />Responsibility<br />Maintaining responsibility amongst soldiers<br />“Jus post bellum”<br />Compensation<br />Rehabilitation<br />Punishment<br />Standing in International Law?<br />Significance of International Law?<br />
    4. 4. Golden Arches Peace Theory<br />
    5. 5. Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention<br />No two countries that are both part of a major global supply chain, like Dell’s, will ever fight a war against each other as long as they are both part of the same global supply chain.”<br />Nations are unwilling to risk the employment generated by globalizastion, and don’t fight.<br />Use to argue why economic ties are a positive; e.g. in sanctions debates<br />Examples:<br />India/Pakistan Nuclear Standoff<br />Taiwan/China<br />?<br />
    6. 6. Democratic Peace Theory<br />Democracies almost never fight with each other – lack of any real wars between real democracies in 20th C<br />-Normative Reasons<br />-Structural Reasons<br />Argue that promoting democracy has broader benefits to protecting the security of existing democratic nations<br />?democratic crusade?<br />Other explanations; e.g. political similarity<br />Just a matter of time – e.g. Iran (is this true democracy though?)<br />Promoting democracy can backfire – increase conflict<br />
    7. 7. Mutually Assured Destruction vs Non-Proliferation<br />More Nukes = More Safety!<br />Presumes: <br />Bipolar world<br />Rational Actors<br />Perfect Detection<br />Perfect Lines of Communication<br />Clear operating protocols<br />How closely does this reflect reality?<br />Are you willing to gamble on a mistake?<br />
    8. 8. War vs Insurgency<br />War<br />“Conventional Warfare”<br />US etc have massive technological superiority in this type of conflict<br />The initial campaign in Iraq 2003 was over in four weeks, 6 weeks after George Bush declared ‘victory’<br />Libyan air defences destroyed within days by Tomohawk missile attacks<br />Insurgency <br />“Guerilla Warfare”<br />Iraq didn’t finish till 2010; even then not really. 10 times as many died in insurgency as in initial war<br />
    9. 9. Terrorism<br />Key questions when considering counter-terrorism policies<br />What is the root cause of the terrorism?<br />Will this tactic work given the particular structure of the terrorist organisation?<br />Will this just make things worse?<br />Hearts and Minds of the people – terrorists do not live in a vacuum. They get support. How, Why?<br />
    10. 10. TORTURE<br />Once ultimate taboo, torture seems to be back in fashion.<br />Used extensively in “War on Terror” in Guantanamo, Egypt (Extraordinary Rendition) etc<br />Key Questions<br />What does torture include?<br />Who could it be used on?<br />Does it work?<br />Where & how will it be used? Slippery slope?<br />Are there other ways to have gained this information?<br />
    11. 11. PIRACY<br />Piracy rampant off coast of Somalia; near Suez canal – 97 attacks so far this year. Use small boats.<br />Risk/Reward Equation; need to hit both sides of each <br />Options<br />Naval Deployment<br />Arming Merchant Ships<br />Land Resolution; Invasion?<br />Case Study: Straights of Malacca<br />40 attacks in 2004, only 2 in 2008<br />Military: Air patrols, information sharing<br />Civil: End of conflict in Aceh, restoration of economy<br />
    12. 12. Sovereignty <br />In Favour <br />Sovereign Right to govern necessary to prevent meddling by other countries<br />Sovereignty must be respected if nations are to be able to work together in International Frameworks<br />To maintain the good parts of the NORM, we must accept the bad (restrictions)<br />Against <br />Sovereignty is an artifact of history<br />Should not be respected in cases where<br />Clear Humanitarian Crisis<br />Does not represent the Will of the People<br />All other methods have been tried<br />?<br />
    13. 13. Multi-Lateralismvs Unilateralism<br />Unilateral vs. multilateral war: big issue in recent years – is it legitimate for and should countries intervene internationally on their own? Is there a certain mandate and legitimacy that comes with collective intervention? <br />Application in debates: aside from the obvious example of Iraq II, which was latterly unilateral, it often arises where it’s claimed that “we can’t wait for things to get any worse”. <br />Consider issues of precedent, slippery slope, role of the UN etc. <br />
    14. 14. Debating about Invasions / Assassinations etc<br />AFF <br />Establish Imperative<br />Identify a tipping point (why we can’t wait)<br />Last Resort (all other options have been tried)<br />Provide clear mechanism <br />Outline a military strategy that will work<br />Initial conflict<br />Continuing conflict (insurgency?)<br />Include amnesty option for combatants / suggest won’t fight<br />Show path to a better future<br />Reconstruction efforts?<br />Who will take power afterwards?<br />Creates important positive precedents<br />NEG<br />Throw mess around<br />War is never clean or simple<br />Civilians & Soldiers will die<br />Responsibility on our hands<br />Show how will mobilise opposition<br />EVEN IF invasion works<br />Show most likely scenario will be at best sub-optimal and most likely even worse than to start <br />Undermines precedents of international law<br />
    15. 15. Chain of Command<br />"An order requiring the performance of a military duty or act may be inferred to be lawful and it is disobeyed at the peril of the subordinate. This inference does not apply to a patently illegal order, such as one that directs the commission of a crime.”<br />"the justification for acts done pursuant to orders does not exist if the order was of such a nature that a man of ordinary sense and understanding would know it to be illegal."<br />
    16. 16. Amnesties<br />How do you deal with the old guard who will opposed change? Consider “Golden Parachutes” of sorts.<br />
    17. 17. Collective Security<br />Do we need to have our own armed forces?<br />
    18. 18. Soft Power vs Hard Power <br />Carrot vs Stick!<br />Try both<br />
    19. 19. Rational vs Irrational Actors<br />
    20. 20. MILITARY TECHNOLOGY<br />In particular looking at ‘game changers’<br />
    21. 21. Combat Drones<br />Avoids risking life of soldier – good or bad?<br />Decision making<br />Deployment Duration<br />War Cost <br />Operator driven vs fully automated?<br />
    22. 22. Satellite Weapons<br />Bad Idea<br />Space is a tricky place to keep clean<br />
    23. 23. Bunker Busters<br />Bombs such as GBU-28; over 6 m over hardened concrete no worries<br />Nuclear versions – Earth Penetrating Weapons; up to 50 m<br />Not really going to get inside a mountain… but you might collapse some tunnels<br />
    24. 24. Stealth<br />U.S. Stealth Bombers<br />F-117<br />B-2<br />(F-22)<br />Anti-Stealth Missile Systems<br />Russian S-300 and S-400 Missile System have limited anti-stealth capability<br />Potential sale to Iran stopped by latest round of sanctions<br />
    25. 25. Anti-Ballistic Missiles<br />Types<br />Standard SM-3 (US)<br />Patriot Missile (broadly)<br />Efficacy<br />Limited to shorter range missiles, single warheads<br />i.e. might stop Iran or NK but won’t stop Russia<br />Controversy<br />Undermines MAD by weakening probability of enemy hit – implication is arms race again<br />
    26. 26. TOPICS<br />That international institutions should use force to restrict the sale of small arms to African nations<br />That gun ownership should be restricted to law enforcement agencies<br />That we should rely on mutual assured destruction rather than on nuclear non-proliferation<br />That the UN should hire mercenaries for military operations <br />That we would create separate units for gays in the military <br />That we would hold soldiers accountable for war crimes committed while following orders<br />TTHW Invade Zimbabwe<br />

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