September 8-12, 2013 Chicago, IL
The State of the
Channel: 2013
It’s where we’re headed,
not where we are,
that matters
Channels are the least
flexible aspect
of the marketing mix.
This is an open
invitation to new
competition.
In the Battle for “Place,”
Convenience Wins

versus
Essential dealer tools
for the future
•
•
•
•

Flexibility of low fixed costs
Virtual infrastructure
Connectivity
Informat...
Channels are reflections
of their marketplaces,
in good and bad,
in sickness and in health.
By 2020, per capita
consumption of US
commercial print
will drop by -25% or more
Back to Basics:
Dealer Channel Advantages
• Proximity: location matters
• On-site insight: vendors
won’t/can’t be everywhe...
Dealer Channel Challenges
• Software-based production,
software-based output
• Electrons work all day and
don’t file expen...
Dealer Channel Opportunities
•
•
•
•
•

Vendor financial weakness
Wider dispersion of print facilities
Decline of “mainstr...
The State of the
Channel: 2020
Trends Driving the Changes
A Step Back: Why Channels?
• Channels provide an advantage
not easy created internally
• … fill a void in a unique way tha...
Commercial Printing’s
Undeniable Trends
• Fewer and smaller print businesses
– Greater distance between commercial
print e...
$18

PRINTING INDUSTRY
SHIPMENTS & PROFITS

$140

$16
$14

Based on US Commerce Department Quarterly
Financial Report, M3 ...
Fewer US Commercial Printing
establishments: down 1/3 by 2020

… or worse…

-40% from
2012 to 2020
Content is Still Being Created
Since 2011,
Ad Agency + Graphic Design
Employment Exceeds
Commercial Print
Digital Printing High Growth Rate
“Mainstream” Print
Decreases in Volume
• Specialty production is more tactical
than strategic
• More specialized equipment...
Biggest Traditional Suppliers
will Have Trouble Coping
• Industry suppliers will restructure
sales and service coverage
– ...
Fewer suppliers
• Influence of long-established
vendors is diminishing
– Kodak through difficult bankruptcy
– Heidelberg s...
CapEx
investment
rate shrinks
• CapEx decreases
from 5% to 3%
of sales
• Dealers help find
new homes for
current installed...
Decreases in overall demand
create new channel opportunities
• Suppliers need to cut fixed costs
• Workflows must become f...
Commercial Printing’s
Survivors Will be
Healthier
Smaller
Media Integrated
Focused on Specialties
Broadly Dispersed
Smaller markets
+
More complexity
=
Channel Restructuring
Digital Media Opportunities for
Dealer/Independent Rep?
Channel Challenges
for 2013-2020
Are dealers the
“systems analysts” for
marketing services /
communications
logistics?
Are dealers the new
CapEx sales and service
infrastructure for the
industry’s former
high-flying vendors?
Can dealers bring new
ranges of specialties to
printers seeking new
revenue streams?
Do dealers have
something to offer the
emerging media
practitioners?
Are there opportunities
in infrastructure
design and support?
What networks of
alliances can dealers
create and offer
clients and vendors?
What kinds of
channels will there
be by Print 17?

That’s your
creative choice.
QUESTIONS
Thank You Very Much!
'The State of the GlobalPrintMediaChannel' - Dr. Joe Webb
'The State of the GlobalPrintMediaChannel' - Dr. Joe Webb
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

'The State of the GlobalPrintMediaChannel' - Dr. Joe Webb

397 views

Published on

Dr Joe Webb presents at the 2nd Global Channel Partners Summit 2013 (www.global-channel-partners.com) his insights into the 'State of the GlobalPrintMediaChannel. Dr Joe's annual opening keynotes at the Summit (this his 2nd) are eagerly awaited by manufacturers, their distributors and dealers alike for his acknowledged and authoritative research into channel dynamics and the path the channel needs to take to remain vibrant and successful in the future.

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
397
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
16
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

'The State of the GlobalPrintMediaChannel' - Dr. Joe Webb

  1. 1. September 8-12, 2013 Chicago, IL
  2. 2. The State of the Channel: 2013 It’s where we’re headed, not where we are, that matters
  3. 3. Channels are the least flexible aspect of the marketing mix. This is an open invitation to new competition.
  4. 4. In the Battle for “Place,” Convenience Wins versus
  5. 5. Essential dealer tools for the future • • • • Flexibility of low fixed costs Virtual infrastructure Connectivity Information + knowledge + wisdom
  6. 6. Channels are reflections of their marketplaces, in good and bad, in sickness and in health.
  7. 7. By 2020, per capita consumption of US commercial print will drop by -25% or more
  8. 8. Back to Basics: Dealer Channel Advantages • Proximity: location matters • On-site insight: vendors won’t/can’t be everywhere • Product representation: many things to few people • Opportunistic specialization: offerings based on unique and timely situations
  9. 9. Dealer Channel Challenges • Software-based production, software-based output • Electrons work all day and don’t file expense reports • Printer consolidation, direct sales, national operations management
  10. 10. Dealer Channel Opportunities • • • • • Vendor financial weakness Wider dispersion of print facilities Decline of “mainstream” print Rise of specialty print and other output Creation of independent training and service networks • Software hosting and licensing
  11. 11. The State of the Channel: 2020 Trends Driving the Changes
  12. 12. A Step Back: Why Channels? • Channels provide an advantage not easy created internally • … fill a void in a unique way that is proprietary and preferred • All channels exist to reduce the total long-term cost and increase the effectiveness of a system of relationships • (Selling direct is not always what it’s cracked up to be)
  13. 13. Commercial Printing’s Undeniable Trends • Fewer and smaller print businesses – Greater distance between commercial print establishments • Fewer suppliers • Shrinking offset, increasing digital • “Mainstream” disappears, replaced by specialties
  14. 14. $18 PRINTING INDUSTRY SHIPMENTS & PROFITS $140 $16 $14 Based on US Commerce Department Quarterly Financial Report, M3 Shipments, BLS CPI $130 $12 $10 Previous profits bottom Q1 to Q4 2005, $3.90B $120 Profits peak Q2-1999 to $8 $110 $6 $4 $100 $2 $ Billions of Inflation-adjusted Industry Shipments, 4-qtr moving total (left axis) $- $ Billions of Inflation-adjusted Profits Before Interest & Taxes, 4-qtr moving total (right axis) $90 $(2) 2013Q1 2012Q2 2011Q3 2010Q4 2010Q1 2009Q2 2008Q3 2007Q4 2007Q1 2006Q2 2005Q3 2004Q4 2004Q1 2003Q2 2002Q3 2001Q4 2001Q1 2000Q2 1999Q3 1998Q4 1998Q1 1997Q2 1996Q3 $(4) 1995Q4 $80
  15. 15. Fewer US Commercial Printing establishments: down 1/3 by 2020 … or worse… -40% from 2012 to 2020
  16. 16. Content is Still Being Created
  17. 17. Since 2011, Ad Agency + Graphic Design Employment Exceeds Commercial Print
  18. 18. Digital Printing High Growth Rate
  19. 19. “Mainstream” Print Decreases in Volume • Specialty production is more tactical than strategic • More specialized equipment, niche tactics, approaches
  20. 20. Biggest Traditional Suppliers will Have Trouble Coping • Industry suppliers will restructure sales and service coverage – Shift from W-2 workers to 1099 independents and current dealers • Independent technical and service personnel
  21. 21. Fewer suppliers • Influence of long-established vendors is diminishing – Kodak through difficult bankruptcy – Heidelberg stock about €2 (€40 in 2008) – Presstek taken private at 50 cents per share – Xerox shares $19 in 2007, now are about $10
  22. 22. CapEx investment rate shrinks • CapEx decreases from 5% to 3% of sales • Dealers help find new homes for current installed base as industry consolidates
  23. 23. Decreases in overall demand create new channel opportunities • Suppliers need to cut fixed costs • Workflows must become focused on multi-channel deployment • Printers seek new revenue sources • Content creators become new opportunity for graphic arts dealers and reps
  24. 24. Commercial Printing’s Survivors Will be Healthier Smaller Media Integrated Focused on Specialties Broadly Dispersed
  25. 25. Smaller markets + More complexity = Channel Restructuring
  26. 26. Digital Media Opportunities for Dealer/Independent Rep?
  27. 27. Channel Challenges for 2013-2020
  28. 28. Are dealers the “systems analysts” for marketing services / communications logistics?
  29. 29. Are dealers the new CapEx sales and service infrastructure for the industry’s former high-flying vendors?
  30. 30. Can dealers bring new ranges of specialties to printers seeking new revenue streams?
  31. 31. Do dealers have something to offer the emerging media practitioners?
  32. 32. Are there opportunities in infrastructure design and support?
  33. 33. What networks of alliances can dealers create and offer clients and vendors?
  34. 34. What kinds of channels will there be by Print 17? That’s your creative choice.
  35. 35. QUESTIONS Thank You Very Much!

×