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Attribution Modelling: Real Business Applications that work.

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Why do attribution models often fail to improve decision-making or inform marketing strategy?
Real life examples of bespoke attribution for Travel, Media and B2B

Myth Busting: Why do attribution projects often fail? How to overcome common pitfalls in  attribution

What are the tangible business benefits of a data-science approach to attribution?

Published in: Data & Analytics
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Attribution Modelling: Real Business Applications that work.

  1. 1. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Attribution Modelling: Real business applications that work @lynchpin @timbushdata
  2. 2. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing We help Organisations Use Data to Make the Best Decisions Independent Analytics Consultancy Consultancy Analytics Data Engineering 1
  3. 3. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing /in/tim-j-bush Statistical modelling (Attribution models, lead scoring, segmentation, predictive models). Data Scientist @timbushdata Now Then PhD Physics + research: Mathematical models of bacteria, the environment + of romance. 2
  4. 4. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing 3 1 Myth busting - Common misconceptions about attribution AGENDA 2 Case Studies: 1. Aviation (B2C) 2. Professional services (B2B) What is attribution and why do models fail? Top tips for successful attribution projects 3 4
  5. 5. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing 4 Why do you need an attribution model at all? Moneyball: What is the true value of a baseball player on your team?
  6. 6. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing 4 Why do you need an attribution model at all? Moneyball: “There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is really happening”
  7. 7. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing What is attribution? 5 How do the different players on your team combine to generate wins? + +
  8. 8. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing ? % What is attribution? How do your marketing channels combine to generate conversions? 5 ? % ? % ? % ? %
  9. 9. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing 0 % What is attribution? How do your marketing channels combine to generate conversions? 5 0 % 0 % 0 % 100 % Last Interaction Model
  10. 10. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing What is attribution? What is the actual value of your marketing activities? 0% 100%0% Last Interaction What is inside this black box? 7
  11. 11. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Or a custom model ? Custom 10% 40%10% 10%30% 10
  12. 12. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing ? Attribution model gives you the true revenue and conversions generated by each channel….. 10% 40%10% 10%30% 11
  13. 13. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing ? Attribution model gives you the true revenue and conversions generated by each channel….. but who really cares? 10% 40%10% 10%30% 13
  14. 14. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing More and more businesses are using attribution models… Econsultancy/Lynchpin survey of 900 analysts and marketers however they aren’t sure whether these models are providing accurate or useful insights. 9 https://www.lynchpin.com/measurement-analytics-report-2017/
  15. 15. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing 8 https://www.lynchpin.com/measurement-analytics-report-2017/ Attribution models are often ‘black box’ models, that are not based on facts about the business.
  16. 16. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Define what your model is for. Optimising marketing spend. Planning campaigns. Attributed revenue is only the first step! Custom Model Lead scoring 14
  17. 17. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Attribution models don’t work for B2B. Attribution Myths Busted Can’t Measure Offline Channels The technology will Produce a good enough model Can’t get internal support for (budget protectiveness). The TV MythThe B2B Myth The Stakeholder MythThe Technology Myth 15
  18. 18. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Case Study 1 Optimise Marketing spend on media and understand which converted to bookings. 16 Aviation Client B2C
  19. 19. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Objective – Optimise digital marketing spend to generate flight bookings. Flight search Flight booking Marketing interactions ? Marketing spend Display Video Email Direct mail Paid Search Call Centre 17
  20. 20. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing • • Why do you want an attribution model? Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit Model Build Test Plan Test the model 19 Lynchpin approach to this project
  21. 21. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing • • Spend • optimization Why do you want an attribution model? Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit Model Build Test Plan Test the model 19
  22. 22. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing • • Spend • optimization Why do you want an attribution model? • Time to conversion was very fast Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit Model Build Test Plan Test the model 19
  23. 23. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing • • Spend • optimization Why do you want an attribution model? • Time to conversion was very fast Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay based model that optimizes spend Model Build Test Plan Test the model 19
  24. 24. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing • • Spend • optimization Why do you want an attribution model? • Time to conversion was very fast Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay based model that optimizes spend Model Build • Planned how to move the spends around Test Plan Test the model 19
  25. 25. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing • • Spend • optimization Why do you want an attribution model? • Time to conversion was very fast Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay based model that optimizes spend Model Build • Planned how to move the spends around Test Plan • Checked the results, and modified the model Test the model 19
  26. 26. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing • • Spend • optimization Why do you want an attribution model? • Time to conversion was very fast Exploratory Analysis + Data Audit • A time-decay based model that optimizes spend Model Build • Planned how to move the spends around Test Plan • Checked the results, and modified the model Test the model 19
  27. 27. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing A Spend Optimisation Model Combine spend data with revenue generated by each channel as determined by an attribution model. Model the revenue generated by each channel as a function of spend as having diminishing returns (logistic function). Use this model to make projections on the impact of future changes in spend. 20
  28. 28. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Example – Display Non-Brand 20
  29. 29. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Revenuegenerated Spend Display PPC Brand PPC Generics Results: 1. Clear overspend in Display. Clear underspend in PPC Brand. 2. Re-allocating spend produced clear improvements in both revenue and other KPIs (Cost per Flight Search). 21
  30. 30. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Case Study 2 Lead Scoring. Understand which marketing channel is converting and who are the best leads within organisations. 22 Professional Services Client B2B
  31. 31. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing B2C Attribution v B2B Attribution 23
  32. 32. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing B2C Attribution Which Media Channel Converts And which segments respond to which media. 24
  33. 33. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing B2C Attribution v B2B Attribution 25
  34. 34. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing B2B Attribution Which media converted the company overall? Who inside the company converted and who influenced them? Internal Discussion Internal Discussion 26
  35. 35. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Methodology – Time Lag Fitting We looked at correlation between marketing activities and conversions over time. Correlation gives the number of points for lead scoring. This method can also be used to incorporate offline channels (TV). 28
  36. 36. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Methodology – Time Lag Fitting 28 Time Score–Chanceofconverting
  37. 37. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Conclusion: 3 Top Attribution Tips Define what the attribution model is for, as early as possible. – Spend optimization/lead scoring? – What KPIs do you want to affect or understand? Adopt a ‘Data Science Approach: – Bespoke models are better than black box models. – Base the attribution model on insights about your business that are easy to understand. – Test rigorously, and improve the model based on the results. Try to obtain executive sponsorship for digital analytics and attribution: – The test and learn approach is key to achieving this. 29 1 2 3
  38. 38. www.lynchpin.comTim Bush Festival of Marketing Thank You Any Questions? Please visit us on POD 8 @lynchpin

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