Peruvian Highlights 2009

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Perú: Macroeconomic Performance and Perspectives- A guide for investors

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Peruvian Highlights 2009

  1. 1. Perú: Economic Performance and Perspectives   Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas October, 2009
  2. 2. Devaluation since 01/09/08 Reserves / GDP 2008 Because of our macroeconomic strength Source: BCRP
  3. 3. Source: LatinFocus Regional Growth (Annual percentage change, in real terms) Regional Inflation ( Annual percentage change of CPI) Consensus: Peru outperforms in the real sector
  4. 4. Financial System Structure Big Size Banks Medium Size Banks Small Size Banks Rural S&Ls Financial Companies Assets 39,218 3,989 2,381 219 433 384 291 Share of total 84% 9% 5% 0% 1% 1% 1% Liquid Assets 37% 24% 22% 16% 21% 10% 7% Net Loans 56% 67% 68% 77% 71% 82% 83% Deposits - With the public 66% 57% 55% 63% 62% 0% 0% - Financial System 6% 7% 5% 3% 2% 0% 10% Due to Banks 12% 17% 14% 12% 17% 72% 52% Bonds 4% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 15% Saving and Credit Cooperative Local Government S&Ls Source: SBS, September 2008
  5. 5. Low interest rates favor investment Source: Bloomberg Domestic Currency Sovereign Yield Curve (Percentage)
  6. 6. Outstanding performance of the capital expenditure Non Financial Expenditures of Central Government ( Annual percentage change, in real terms ) 1Q08 1Q09 Var. % Current Expenditure 9,088 10,593 10.4% <ul><ul><li>Wages and Salaries </li></ul></ul>3,465 3,604 -1.5% <ul><ul><li>Good and Services </li></ul></ul>1,914 2,426 20.0% <ul><ul><li>Tranfers </li></ul></ul>3,709 4,563 16.5% <ul><ul><ul><li>Pensions </li></ul></ul></ul>1,041 1,065 -3.1% <ul><ul><ul><li>Socials Charges </li></ul></ul></ul>237 282 12.7% <ul><ul><ul><li>Foncomun </li></ul></ul></ul>790 680 -18.5% <ul><ul><ul><li>ONP </li></ul></ul></ul>420 473 6.5% <ul><ul><ul><li>Others </li></ul></ul></ul>1,221 2,063 60.0% Capital Expenditure 927 1,638 67.4% <ul><ul><li>Gross Capital Formation </li></ul></ul>712 1,112 47.9% <ul><ul><li>Other </li></ul></ul>215 526 132.1% Total 10,015 12,231 15.7%
  7. 7. Source: WEF Peru: Competitiveness Indicators (ranking) Competitive Advantages Good economic performance and adequate economic policy Competitive Disadvantages Legal and social issues   Peru’s strengths and weakneses <ul><li>Macroeconomics is OK, but infrastructure and education are the long-run challenges. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Forecast & Long Term
  9. 9. Sustainable external accounts balance
  10. 10. Public investment important role Source: MEF Overall Demand and Supply (Annual percentage change, in real terms)
  11. 11. Operations of the Non-Financial Public Sector (As a percentage of GDP) Anti-Crisis Plan (US$ 2,500MM) Financing Plan Fiscal stimulus: public investment

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