Cogni&ve	
  Bias	
  
and	
  Project	
  
Management	
  
06/06/2014 1
http://www.taesch.com/cognitive/
cognitive-bias-projec...
What	
  is	
  this,	
  a	
  bias	
  ?	
  
•  “Insanity	
  in	
  individuals	
  is	
  
something	
  rare	
  	
  
•  but	
  ...
The	
  short	
  answer:	
  
The	
  Fantasy	
  
(thank	
  you	
  Plato	
  and	
  Descartes	
  !)	
  
The	
  short	
  answer	
  :	
  The	
  reality	
  
The	
  short	
  answer	
  
The	
  short	
  answer	
  :	
  95	
  %	
  of	
  the	
  
&me	
  ,	
  the	
  monkey	
  hold	
  the	
  wheel	
  
Overview	
  of	
  the	
  cards	
  
	
  
•  Defence	
  of	
  the	
  mind	
  set	
  
•  Social	
  influence	
  
•  Habits	
  ...
Honesty	
  Box	
  
	
  
–  In	
  a	
  somewhat	
  spookier	
  example,	
  researchers	
  staged	
  an	
  experiment	
  in	...
Honesty	
  Box	
  
	
  
–  In	
  a	
  somewhat	
  spookier	
  example,	
  researchers	
  staged	
  an	
  experiment	
  in	...
First	
  Impression	
  
•  We	
  will	
  describe	
  two	
  personali&es,	
  Alan	
  and	
  
Ben,	
  based	
  on	
  their	...
Alan	
  
•  Intelligent,	
  Industrious,	
  Impulsive,	
  Cri&cal,	
  
Stubborn,	
  Envious	
  
Ben	
  
•  Envious,	
  Stubborn,	
  Cri&cal,	
  Impulsive,	
  
Industrious,	
  Intelligent	
  
Ben	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Alan	
  
•  Intelligent	
  
•  Industrious	
  
•  Impul...
Cogni&ve	
  Bias	
  according	
  to	
  
Kahneman	
  
	
  •  Système	
  1	
  and	
  System	
  2	
  
– Système	
  1	
  
– Sy...
Système	
  1	
  &	
  2	
  
Système	
  1	
  
Système	
  2	
  
Ou&ls	
  &	
  Projec&ons	
  
Kahneman	
  :	
  summary	
  
•  The	
  Book	
  
•  A	
  good	
  summary	
  
hep://newbooksinbrief.com/
2012/11/13/24-­‐a-­...
Cogni&ve	
  Biases	
  
•  80+	
  :	
  hep://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cogni&ve_biases	
  
•  300+	
  :	
  heps://www.r...
Experimen&ng	
  the	
  switch	
  between	
  S1	
  
and	
  S2	
  
Say loudly how may dots you see in the coming slides ,
as...
Are	
  you	
  coun&ng	
  in	
  your	
  head	
  ?	
  
Are	
  you	
  coun&ng	
  in	
  your	
  head	
  ?	
  
Are	
  you	
  coun&ng	
  in	
  your	
  head	
  ?	
  
Are	
  you	
  coun&ng	
  in	
  your	
  head	
  ?	
  
Are	
  you	
  coun&ng	
  in	
  your	
  head	
  ?	
  
Are	
  you	
  coun&ng	
  in	
  your	
  head	
  ?	
  
Are	
  you	
  coun&ng	
  in	
  your	
  head	
  ?	
  
Subi&za&on	
  
•  subi/za/on	
  	
  
•  (psychology)	
  The	
  process	
  of,	
  or	
  act	
  of,	
  glancing	
  
at	
  a	...
Subi&sa&on	
  pictures	
  
	
  
A	
  trip	
  	
  
to	
  Abilene	
  
	
  •  On	
  a	
  hot	
  a[ernoon	
  visi&ng	
  in	
  Coleman,	
  Texas,	
  the	
  fam...
A	
  trip	
  to	
  Abilene	
  
	
  
•  One	
  of	
  them	
  dishonestly	
  says,	
  "It	
  was	
  a	
  great	
  trip,	
  w...
Group	
  thinking	
  	
  
•  A	
  Trip	
  to	
  Abilene	
  
Planning	
  Poker	
  	
  
Timeboxing	
  
– Threat	
  or	
  opportunity	
  
– Aversion	
  to	
  loss	
  
– Change	
  Resistance	
  
– Pomodoro	
  	
  
Rep&lian	
  Brain	
  
Mammal	
  Brain	
  
Confidence	
  is	
  built	
  on	
  the	
  experience	
  
of	
  success	
  
Conversa&onal	
  Intelligence	
  
Fear	
  ac&vate	
  Cor&sol	
  and	
  shut	
  
down	
  the	
  cortex	
  
Trust,	
  Experiment,	
  Co-­‐create	
  
Itéra&ons	
  	
  
Rela&ve	
  Thinking	
  
The	
  Middle	
  Op&on	
  is	
  never	
  selected…	
  
However	
  influence	
  the	
  choice…	
  
(Framing,	
  Anchor)	
  
Framing 	
  	
  
•  hep://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ng9V2JneJ68	
  
•  “the	
  five-­‐year	
  survival	
  rates	
  clearly	
  f...
Rela&ve	
  	
  
Es&ma&on	
  
•  Wysa&	
  :	
  What	
  you	
  see	
  is	
  all	
  there	
  is.	
  
•  Over	
  Op&mism	
  
•...
Planning	
  fallacy	
  
•  The	
  planning	
  fallacy	
  describes	
  the	
  tendency	
  for	
  people	
  to	
  overes&mat...
Illusion	
  of	
  control	
  
The	
  monkey	
  is	
  crap	
  at	
  stats,	
  	
  
and	
  rare	
  events	
  
He makes no difference between low
probabili...
Daily	
  Mee&ng	
  
Confirma&on	
  Bias	
  
Low	
  fidelity	
  Prototype	
  
Sunk	
  Cost	
  Fallacy	
  
Daily	
  Mee&ng	
  
Task	
  Board	
  
– Visualize	
  
– Project	
  to	
  understand	
  complexity	
  beeer	
  
– (S2-­‐>S1,	
  WYSIATI	
  )	
  
Saturate	
  and	
  Group	
  	
  
Informa&on	
  radiators	
  
Peer	
  Programming	
  
Priming	
  
•  Video	
  	
  
•  hep://m.youtube.com/watch?
v=HRAKt0GakJM	
  
•  “the	
  ‘Florida	
  effect’	
  involves	
  ...
Brainstorming:	
  the	
  65’s	
  way	
  
•  Focus	
  on	
  quan/ty	
  	
  
•  Withhold	
  cri/cism	
  
•  Welcome	
  unusu...
Brainstorming:	
  the	
  challenges	
  
•  Blocking	
  	
  
•  Collabora/ve	
  fixa/on	
  	
  
•  Evalua/on	
  apprehension...
Divergent	
  and	
  Convergent	
  Thinking	
  
Priming	
  for	
  Crea&ve	
  Conversa&ons	
  
•  Warm	
  vs	
  cold	
  
– 	
  head	
  table	
  :	
  Authority	
  (	
  cold...
Priming	
  for	
  Crea&ve	
  Conversa&ons	
  
•  Friend	
  of	
  Foe	
  ?	
  0,07	
  s…	
  
•  FORCES:	
  
– Fairness	
  
...
Or	
  
•  Fearful	
  
•  Sad	
  
•  Depressed	
  
•  Upset	
  
•  Angry	
  
•  Overly	
  S&mulated	
  
– Excess	
  Dopamin...
les	
  demandes	
  d'aide	
  explicites...	
  
	
  
Retrospec&ves	
  
•  What	
  did	
  we	
  do	
  well,	
  that	
  if	
  we	
  don’t	
  discuss	
  we	
  
might	
  forget?	
...
Priming	
  Rétrospec&ve	
  
http://www.retrospectives.com/pages/
retroPrimeDirective.html
The prime directive says:One of ...
Free	
  Choice	
  of	
  Tasks	
  
– Not	
  invented	
  here	
  
V	
  :	
  Forget	
  you	
  are	
  a	
  human	
  
	
  
V	
  :	
  ‘Simplified’	
  reality	
  
the	
  waterfall	
  «	
  cycle	
  »	
  	
  
•  Which	
  bias	
  are	
  going	
  to	
  show	
  up	
  
in	
  this	
  	
  ’cy...
Design	
  thinking	
  
•  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Design_thinking	
  
•  Le	
  Design	
  Thinking	
  est	
  une	
  mé...
Design	
  Thinking	
  
Divergent	
  and	
  Convergent	
  Thinking	
  
Design	
  Thinking	
  Techniques	
  
•  Loss	
  aversion	
  
•  Confirma&on	
  bias	
  
•  Sunk	
  cost	
  fallacy	
  
•  Anchoring	
  bias	
  
•  Overconfidence...
Other	
  Prac&ces	
  
	
  
•  Serious	
  games	
  	
  
•  Lean	
  startup	
  
•  Design	
  thinking	
  
•  Décision	
  qua...
Game	
  storming	
  /	
  Serious	
  games	
  
•  Jeux	
  sérieux	
  	
  
•  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeu_s
%C3%A9rieux	...
Decision	
  Quality	
  
•  heps://novoed.com/DQ101	
  
•  Mooc	
  @	
  Stanford	
  
•  (La	
  classifica&on	
  u&lisée	
  i...
Lean	
  startup	
  
•  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_Startup	
  
Take	
  Away	
  	
  
Don’t	
  fight	
  the	
  monkey	
  
•  Bias	
  Exists	
  (and	
  now,	
  you	
  know,	
  too…)	
  
•  They	
  can	
  be	
  ...
Live	
  with	
  All	
  of	
  you	
  
•  Cogni&ve	
  Dissonance	
  is	
  not	
  ”pleasant”	
  
– Empty	
  mind,	
  Bad	
  g...
Knowing	
  
and	
  Sharing	
  	
  
where	
  CB	
  
impact	
  your	
  
process	
  
	
  
Les	
  biais	
  cogni&fs	
  	
  
	
  
Plus	
  (	
  de	
  surface)	
  	
  
Plus	
  de	
  détails	
  ...	
  
La	
  Table	
  des	
  Ma&eres	
  Du	
  Livre	
  
•  	
  
i.	
  Introduc&on/Synopsis	
  
•  	
  
	
  
•  PART	
  I:	
  AN	
...
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
Cognitve biases  and project management
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Cognitve biases and project management

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Understanding Human is key in Project Management. Understanding Cognitive Bias is key in Understanding Human. Here is a fun Presentation on the topic for which Kahnenman received a Novel Prize in 2002

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Cognitve biases and project management

  1. 1. Cogni&ve  Bias   and  Project   Management   06/06/2014 1 http://www.taesch.com/cognitive/ cognitive-bias-project- management/2014/06/04/595 http://goo.gl/M7IM3O
  2. 2. What  is  this,  a  bias  ?   •  “Insanity  in  individuals  is   something  rare     •  but  in  groups,  par&es,   na&ons  and  epochs,  it  is   the  rule.”   •   Friedrich  Nietzsche   German  philosopher  (1844  -­‐  1900)     Le 10 th man http://goo.gl/W1LHmX
  3. 3. The  short  answer:   The  Fantasy   (thank  you  Plato  and  Descartes  !)  
  4. 4. The  short  answer  :  The  reality  
  5. 5. The  short  answer  
  6. 6. The  short  answer  :  95  %  of  the   &me  ,  the  monkey  hold  the  wheel  
  7. 7. Overview  of  the  cards     •  Defence  of  the  mind  set   •  Social  influence   •  Habits  and  personality   •  Faulty  reasoning,   Uncertainty,  Complexity   •  Rela&ve  thinking   •  Automa&c  associa&on  
  8. 8. Honesty  Box     –  In  a  somewhat  spookier  example,  researchers  staged  an  experiment  in  a   workplace  kitchen  wherein  employees  would  rou&nely  make  themselves  tea   or  coffee  in  exchange  for  a  fee  that  they  would  drop  in  an  ‘honesty  box’   –   In  the  first  stage  of  the  experiment,  the  researchers  planted  a  picture  of  a   flowerpot  in  the  room,  while  in  the  second  stage  of  the  experiment  they   replaced  it  with  a  picture  of  a  pair  of  eyes     –  The  two  pictures  were  then  alternated  back  and  forth  each  week,  for  a  period   of  ten  weeks    
  9. 9. Honesty  Box     –  In  a  somewhat  spookier  example,  researchers  staged  an  experiment  in  a   workplace  kitchen  wherein  employees  would  rou&nely  make  themselves  tea   or  coffee  in  exchange  for  a  fee  that  they  would  drop  in  an  ‘honesty  box’   –   In  the  first  stage  of  the  experiment,  the  researchers  planted  a  picture  of  a   flowerpot  in  the  room,  while  in  the  second  stage  of  the  experiment  they   replaced  it  with  a  picture  of  a  pair  of  eyes     –  The  two  pictures  were  then  alternated  back  and  forth  each  week,  for  a  period   of  ten  weeks     –  Finally,  the  researchers  compared  how  much  money  was  le[  in  the  honesty   box  across  the  2  situa&ons  in  the  experiment.     –  Here’s  Kahneman  to  explain  the  results:  “no  one  commented  on  the  new   decora&ons,  but  the  contribu&ons  to  the  honesty  box  changed  significantly…   –   On  average,  the  users  of  the  kitchen  contributed  almost  three  &mes  as  much   in  ‘eye  weeks’  as  they  did  in  ‘flower  weeks.’  Evidently,  a  purely  symbolic   reminder  of  being  watched  prodded  people  into  improved  behavior.  As  we   expect  at  this  point,  the  effect  occurs  without  any  awareness”  .  This  is  a  very   eye-­‐opening  example  of  how  System  1  can  influence  System  2,  and  also  hints   at  the  frightening  ways  that  System  1  might  be  exploited.  
  10. 10. First  Impression   •  We  will  describe  two  personali&es,  Alan  and   Ben,  based  on  their  characteris&cs.   •  Select  which  one  you  prefer   •  Just  watch  yourself  thinking  when  coming  to   this  conclusion   •  Do  not  share  your  finding  loudly  ,  we  will   discuss  a[er  the  experience.  
  11. 11. Alan   •  Intelligent,  Industrious,  Impulsive,  Cri&cal,   Stubborn,  Envious  
  12. 12. Ben   •  Envious,  Stubborn,  Cri&cal,  Impulsive,   Industrious,  Intelligent  
  13. 13. Ben                                Alan   •  Intelligent   •  Industrious   •  Impulsive   •  Cri&cal   •  Stubborn   •  Envious   •  Envious   •  Stubborn   •  Cri&cal   •  Impulsive   •  Industrious   •  Intelligent  
  14. 14. Cogni&ve  Bias  according  to   Kahneman    •  Système  1  and  System  2   – Système  1   – Système  2   – interac&on  
  15. 15. Système  1  &  2  
  16. 16. Système  1  
  17. 17. Système  2  
  18. 18. Ou&ls  &  Projec&ons  
  19. 19. Kahneman  :  summary   •  The  Book   •  A  good  summary   hep://newbooksinbrief.com/ 2012/11/13/24-­‐a-­‐summary-­‐of-­‐ thinking-­‐fast-­‐and-­‐slow-­‐by-­‐daniel-­‐ kahneman/    
  20. 20. Cogni&ve  Biases   •  80+  :  hep://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cogni&ve_biases   •  300+  :  heps://www.recobia.eu/  (  non  public)   •  Many  classifica&ons     –  We  took  one  “ac&onable”,  inspired  by  the  DQ  101  Stanford  Mooc  (Karl   Spetzler)   •  Design  thinking  and  Cogni&ve  Bias   –  @stakken86  thesis  on  #DesignThinking  and  #Cogni&veBias  hep://goo.gl/wHU8bc   •  My  cura&on  :  hep://www.scoop.it/t/cogni&ve-­‐bias  
  21. 21. Experimen&ng  the  switch  between  S1   and  S2   Say loudly how may dots you see in the coming slides , as quickly as possible, and compare reaction time
  22. 22. Are  you  coun&ng  in  your  head  ?  
  23. 23. Are  you  coun&ng  in  your  head  ?  
  24. 24. Are  you  coun&ng  in  your  head  ?  
  25. 25. Are  you  coun&ng  in  your  head  ?  
  26. 26. Are  you  coun&ng  in  your  head  ?  
  27. 27. Are  you  coun&ng  in  your  head  ?  
  28. 28. Are  you  coun&ng  in  your  head  ?  
  29. 29. Subi&za&on   •  subi/za/on     •  (psychology)  The  process  of,  or  act  of,  glancing   at  a  group  of  a  few  objects  and  knowing  how   many  there  are  without  actually  coun&ng.     •  hep://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subi&zing  
  30. 30. Subi&sa&on  pictures    
  31. 31. A  trip     to  Abilene    •  On  a  hot  a[ernoon  visi&ng  in  Coleman,  Texas,  the  family  is   comfortably  playing  dominoes  on  a  porch,  un&l  the  father-­‐in-­‐ law  suggests  that  they  take  a  trip  to  Abilene  [53  miles  north]   for  dinner.  The  wife  says,  "Sounds  like  a  great  idea."  The   husband,  despite  having  reserva&ons  because  the  drive  is   long  and  hot,  thinks  that  his  preferences  must  be  out-­‐of-­‐step   with  the  group  and  says,  "Sounds  good  to  me.  I  just  hope   your  mother  wants  to  go."  The  mother-­‐in-­‐law  then  says,  "Of   course  I  want  to  go.  I  haven't  been  to  Abilene  in  a  long   /me."   •  The  drive  is  hot,  dusty,  and  long.  When  they  arrive  at  the   cafeteria,  the  food  is  as  bad  as  the  drive.  They  arrive  back   home  four  hours  later,  exhausted.    
  32. 32. A  trip  to  Abilene     •  One  of  them  dishonestly  says,  "It  was  a  great  trip,  wasn't  it?"   The  mother-­‐in-­‐law  says  that,  actually,  she  would  rather  have   stayed  home,  but  went  along  since  the  other  three  were  so   enthusias&c.  The  husband  says,  "I  wasn't  delighted  to  be   doing  what  we  were  doing.  I  only  went  to  sa&sfy  the  rest  of   you."  The  wife  says,  "I  just  went  along  to  keep  you  happy.  I   would  have  had  to  be  crazy  to  want  to  go  out  in  the  heat  like   that."  The  father-­‐in-­‐law  then  says  that  he  only  suggested  it   because  he  thought  the  others  might  be  bored.   •  The  group  sits  back,  perplexed  that  they  together  decided  to   take  a  trip  which  none  of  them  wanted.  They  each  would   have  preferred  to  sit  comfortably,  but  did  not  admit  to  it   when  they  s&ll  had  &me  to  enjoy  the  a[ernoon.  
  33. 33. Group  thinking     •  A  Trip  to  Abilene  
  34. 34. Planning  Poker    
  35. 35. Timeboxing   – Threat  or  opportunity   – Aversion  to  loss   – Change  Resistance   – Pomodoro    
  36. 36. Rep&lian  Brain  
  37. 37. Mammal  Brain  
  38. 38. Confidence  is  built  on  the  experience   of  success  
  39. 39. Conversa&onal  Intelligence  
  40. 40. Fear  ac&vate  Cor&sol  and  shut   down  the  cortex  
  41. 41. Trust,  Experiment,  Co-­‐create  
  42. 42. Itéra&ons    
  43. 43. Rela&ve  Thinking  
  44. 44. The  Middle  Op&on  is  never  selected…  
  45. 45. However  influence  the  choice…  
  46. 46. (Framing,  Anchor)  
  47. 47. Framing     •  hep://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ng9V2JneJ68   •  “the  five-­‐year  survival  rates  clearly  favor  surgery,  but  in  the   short  term  surgery  is  riskier  than  radia&on”     •  When  it  came  to  the  short  term  risks  of  surgery,  though,     •  half  of  the  doctors  were  shown  stats  that  referred  to  the   survival  rate  (which  is  90%  a[er  one  month),     •  while  the  other  half  of  the  doctors  were  shown  stats  that   referred  to  the  mortality  rate  (which  is  10%  a[er  one   month)  .   •  Here’s  Kahneman  with  the  results:  “you  already  know  the   results:  surgery  was  much  more  popular  in  the  former  frame   (84%  of  physicians  chose  it)  than  in  the  laeer  (where  50%   favored  radia&on).  
  48. 48. Rela&ve     Es&ma&on   •  Wysa&  :  What  you  see  is  all  there  is.   •  Over  Op&mism   •  Over  confidence   •  in  some  quizzes,  people  rate  their  answers  as  "99%   certain"  but  are  wrong  40%  of  the  &me   •  93%  of  American  drivers  rate  themselves  as  beeer   than  the  median   •  For  difficult  tasks,  the  effect  reverses  itself  and   people  believe  they  are  worse  than  others  
  49. 49. Planning  fallacy   •  The  planning  fallacy  describes  the  tendency  for  people  to  overes&mate  their  rate   of  work  or  to  underes&mate  how  long  it  will  take  them  to  get  things  done.[9]  It  is   strongest  for  long  and  complicated  tasks,  and  disappears  or  reverses  for  simple   tasks  that  are  quick  to  complete.   •  hep://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy   •  Another  study  asked  students  to  es&mate  when  they  would  complete  their   personal  academic  projects.  Specifically,  the  researchers  asked  for  es&mated  &mes   by  which  the  students  thought  it  was    50%,  75%,  and  99%  probable  their  personal   projects  would  be  done.[5]   •  13%  of  subjects  finished  their  project  by  the  &me  they  had  assigned  a  50%   probability  level;   •  19%  finished  by  the  &me  assigned  a  75%  probability  level;   •  45%  finished  by  the  &me  of  their  99%  probability  level.  
  50. 50. Illusion  of  control  
  51. 51. The  monkey  is  crap  at  stats,     and  rare  events   He makes no difference between low probability and low impact if something can be recalled, it must be important
  52. 52. Daily  Mee&ng  
  53. 53. Confirma&on  Bias  
  54. 54. Low  fidelity  Prototype  
  55. 55. Sunk  Cost  Fallacy  
  56. 56. Daily  Mee&ng  
  57. 57. Task  Board   – Visualize   – Project  to  understand  complexity  beeer   – (S2-­‐>S1,  WYSIATI  )  
  58. 58. Saturate  and  Group    
  59. 59. Informa&on  radiators  
  60. 60. Peer  Programming  
  61. 61. Priming   •  Video     •  hep://m.youtube.com/watch? v=HRAKt0GakJM   •  “the  ‘Florida  effect’  involves  two  stages  of  priming.  First,  the  set  of  words  primes  thoughts  of  old  age,   though  the  word  old  is  never  men&oned  (“worried,”  “Florida,”  “old,”  “lonely,”  “gray,”  “bingo,  );  second,   these  thoughts  prime  a  behavior,  walking  slowly,  which  is  associated  with  old  age.  All  this  happens   without  any  awareness.  When  they  were  ques&oned  a[erward,  none  of  the  students  reported  no&cing   that  the  words  had  had  a  common  theme,  and  they  all  insisted  that  nothing  they  did  a[er  the  first   experiment  could  have  been  influenced  by  the  words  they  had  encountered.  The  idea  of  old  age  had  not   come  into  their  conscious  awareness,  but  their  ac&ons  changed  nevertheless”  
  62. 62. Brainstorming:  the  65’s  way   •  Focus  on  quan/ty     •  Withhold  cri/cism   •  Welcome  unusual  ideas     •  Combine  and  improve  ideas    
  63. 63. Brainstorming:  the  challenges   •  Blocking     •  Collabora/ve  fixa/on     •  Evalua/on  apprehension     •  Free-­‐riding     •  Personality  characteris/cs     •  Social  matching    
  64. 64. Divergent  and  Convergent  Thinking  
  65. 65. Priming  for  Crea&ve  Conversa&ons   •  Warm  vs  cold   –   head  table  :  Authority  (  cold)  vs  round  table   (  warm)   – Hard  and  so[  chairs   – Whiteboard  :  we  will  have  an  open,  trus&ng   conversa&on  and  will  follow  through  with  our   agreements   •  Bad  Start  :  Disengage,  re  engage.  Humor.  
  66. 66. Priming  for  Crea&ve  Conversa&ons   •  Friend  of  Foe  ?  0,07  s…   •  FORCES:   – Fairness   – Ownership   – Reciprocity   – Coopera&on   – Open  Expression   – Status   •  Feel  Good  <>  Trust  :  (dopamine,  serotonine,   oxytocin  )      
  67. 67. Or   •  Fearful   •  Sad   •  Depressed   •  Upset   •  Angry   •  Overly  S&mulated   – Excess  Dopamine;  norepinephrine  (stress)   – Increase  testosterone   – Steroids  (  strength)     – Cor&sol  takes  up  to  36  hours  to  clean  from  body  
  68. 68. les  demandes  d'aide  explicites...    
  69. 69. Retrospec&ves   •  What  did  we  do  well,  that  if  we  don’t  discuss  we   might  forget?     •  What  did  we  learn?     •  What  should  we  do  differently  next  /me?     •  What  s/ll  puzzles  us?  
  70. 70. Priming  Rétrospec&ve   http://www.retrospectives.com/pages/ retroPrimeDirective.html The prime directive says:One of the most obvious fears people have when first trying a retrospective is that the ritual will become a negative gripe session, interspersed with blame and counter blame. Clearly such an event will not contribute to much learning. The key to a constructive successful ritual is assuring that all the participants adhere to the Retrospective Prime Directive. Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.
  71. 71. Free  Choice  of  Tasks   – Not  invented  here  
  72. 72. V  :  Forget  you  are  a  human    
  73. 73. V  :  ‘Simplified’  reality  
  74. 74. the  waterfall  «  cycle  »     •  Which  bias  are  going  to  show  up   in  this    ’cycle’?  
  75. 75. Design  thinking   •  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Design_thinking   •  Le  Design  Thinking  est  une  méthode  de   créa&vité  et  de  son  management  qui  se   veut  une  synthèse  entre  la  pensée   analy&que  et  la  pensée  intui&ve.  Il   s'appuie  beaucoup  sur  un  processus  de   co-­‐créa&vité  impliquant  des  retours  de   l'u&lisateur  final.  
  76. 76. Design  Thinking  
  77. 77. Divergent  and  Convergent  Thinking  
  78. 78. Design  Thinking  Techniques  
  79. 79. •  Loss  aversion   •  Confirma&on  bias   •  Sunk  cost  fallacy   •  Anchoring  bias   •  Overconfidence  bias   –  Above  average  :  all  the  children  are  above  average   –  limited  to  “easy”  tasks  in  which  success  is  common  or  in  which  people   feel  competent.  For  difficult  tasks,  the  effect  reverses  itself  and  people   believe  they  are  worse  than  others     –  Strikes,  lawsuits,  and  wars  could  arise  from  overplacement.       •  Framing   •  Deforma&on  Professionelle  
  80. 80. Other  Prac&ces     •  Serious  games     •  Lean  startup   •  Design  thinking   •  Décision  quality    
  81. 81. Game  storming  /  Serious  games   •  Jeux  sérieux     •  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeu_s %C3%A9rieux  
  82. 82. Decision  Quality   •  heps://novoed.com/DQ101   •  Mooc  @  Stanford   •  (La  classifica&on  u&lisée  ici  vient  de  la)  .  
  83. 83. Lean  startup   •  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_Startup  
  84. 84. Take  Away    
  85. 85. Don’t  fight  the  monkey   •  Bias  Exists  (and  now,  you  know,  too…)   •  They  can  be  denied  :  simplis&c  ra&onalism     •  They  cannot  be  removed   – There  is  no  bias-­‐free  “human”   •  Human  keep  on  simplifying  reality  to  make   some  sense  of  it  
  86. 86. Live  with  All  of  you   •  Cogni&ve  Dissonance  is  not  ”pleasant”   – Empty  mind,  Bad  gut  feeling   – We  were  taught  to  avoid  this  (conform,  align…)   – Most  Prefer  to  stay  in  the  ”comfort”  zone   •  It    takes  courage  to  step  out  the  first  &me   – But  quickly  you  grow  to  become  a  learner,   because  it  is  rewarding     •  As  a  group,  this  means  a  transi&on  to  a   learning  ‘Process’  /  Organisa&on.  (e.g.  Agile,   DT  ..)  
  87. 87. Knowing   and  Sharing     where  CB   impact  your   process    
  88. 88. Les  biais  cogni&fs      
  89. 89. Plus  (  de  surface)    
  90. 90. Plus  de  détails  ...  
  91. 91. La  Table  des  Ma&eres  Du  Livre   •    i.  Introduc&on/Synopsis   •      •  PART  I:  AN  INTRODUCTION  TO  THINKING,  WITH  A  FOCUS  ON  SYSTEM  1   •      •  Sec&on  1:  An  Introduc&on  to  Thought,  Fast  and  Slow   •      •  1.  Thought,  Fast  and  Slow   •      •  Sec&on  2:  System  1  Under  the  Microscope   •      •  2.  Learning  by  Associa&on  and  the  Priming  Effect   •  a.  Associa&on   •  b.  The  Priming  Effect   •  3.  Context  and  Causality   •  a.  Context   •  b.  Causality   •  4.  Judging  and  Evalua&ng  on  Limited  Evidence:  WYSIATI  and  Subs&tu&on   •  a.  WYSIATI   •  b.  Subs&tu&on   •  5.  When  System  1  Judges  People:  Stereotypes,  First  Impressions,  and  the  Halo  Effect   •  a.  Stereotypes   •  b.  First  Impressions   •  c.  The  Halo  Effect   •  6.  The  Interac&on  Between  System  1  and  System  2   •      •  PART  II:  THE  ERRORS  OF  SYSTEM  1   •      •  7.  An  Error  of  Associa&on  and  Priming:  The  Anchoring  Effect   •      •  8.  The  Framing  Effect   •      •  9.  File  Under  WYSIATI   •  a.  WYSIATI  and  Confidence   •  b.  WYSIATI  and  Es&ma&ons   •  c.  The  Two  Selves  

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