Cognitve biases and project management

Cogni&ve
Bias

and
Project

Management

06/06/2014 1
http://www.taesch.com/cognitive/
cognitive-bias-project-
management/2014/06/04/595
http://goo.gl/M7IM3O

What
is
this,
a
bias
?

•  “Insanity
in
individuals
is

something
rare

•  but
in
groups,
par&es,

na&ons
and
epochs,
it
is

the
rule.”

• 
Friedrich
Nietzsche

German
philosopher
(1844
-‐
1900)

Le 10 th man
http://goo.gl/W1LHmX

The
short
answer:

The
Fantasy

(thank
you
Plato
and
Descartes
!)

The
short
answer
:
The
reality

The
short
answer
:
95
%
of
the

&me
,
the
monkey
hold
the
wheel

Overview
of
the
cards

•  Defence
of
the
mind
set

•  Social
inﬂuence

•  Habits
and
personality

•  Faulty
reasoning,

Uncertainty,
Complexity

•  Rela&ve
thinking

•  Automa&c
associa&on

Honesty
Box

–  In
a
somewhat
spookier
example,
researchers
staged
an
experiment
in
a

workplace
kitchen
wherein
employees
would
rou&nely
make
themselves
tea

or
coffee
in
exchange
for
a
fee
that
they
would
drop
in
an
‘honesty
box’

– 
In
the
first
stage
of
the
experiment,
the
researchers
planted
a
picture
of
a

flowerpot
in
the
room,
while
in
the
second
stage
of
the
experiment
they

replaced
it
with
a
picture
of
a
pair
of
eyes

–  The
two
pictures
were
then
alternated
back
and
forth
each
week,
for
a
period

of
ten
weeks

Honesty
Box

–  In
a
somewhat
spookier
example,
researchers
staged
an
experiment
in
a

workplace
kitchen
wherein
employees
would
rou&nely
make
themselves
tea

or
coffee
in
exchange
for
a
fee
that
they
would
drop
in
an
‘honesty
box’

– 
In
the
first
stage
of
the
experiment,
the
researchers
planted
a
picture
of
a

flowerpot
in
the
room,
while
in
the
second
stage
of
the
experiment
they

replaced
it
with
a
picture
of
a
pair
of
eyes

–  The
two
pictures
were
then
alternated
back
and
forth
each
week,
for
a
period

of
ten
weeks

–  Finally,
the
researchers
compared
how
much
money
was
le[
in
the
honesty

box
across
the
2
situa&ons
in
the
experiment.

–  Here’s
Kahneman
to
explain
the
results:
“no
one
commented
on
the
new

decora&ons,
but
the
contribu&ons
to
the
honesty
box
changed
significantly…

– 
On
average,
the
users
of
the
kitchen
contributed
almost
three
&mes
as
much

in
‘eye
weeks’
as
they
did
in
‘flower
weeks.’
Evidently,
a
purely
symbolic

reminder
of
being
watched
prodded
people
into
improved
behavior.
As
we

expect
at
this
point,
the
effect
occurs
without
any
awareness”
.
This
is
a
very

eye-‐opening
example
of
how
System
1
can
influence
System
2,
and
also
hints

at
the
frightening
ways
that
System
1
might
be
exploited.

First
Impression

•  We
will
describe
two
personali&es,
Alan
and

Ben,
based
on
their
characteris&cs.

•  Select
which
one
you
prefer

•  Just
watch
yourself
thinking
when
coming
to

this
conclusion

•  Do
not
share
your
ﬁnding
loudly
,
we
will

discuss
a[er
the
experience.

Alan

•  Intelligent,
Industrious,
Impulsive,
Cri&cal,

Stubborn,
Envious

Ben

•  Envious,
Stubborn,
Cri&cal,
Impulsive,

Industrious,
Intelligent

Ben

Alan

•  Intelligent

•  Industrious

•  Impulsive

•  Cri&cal

•  Stubborn

•  Envious

•  Envious

•  Stubborn

•  Cri&cal

•  Impulsive

•  Industrious

•  Intelligent

Cogni&ve
Bias
according
to

Kahneman

•  Système
1
and
System
2

– Système
1

– Système
2

– interac&on

Kahneman
:
summary

•  The
Book

•  A
good
summary

hep://newbooksinbrief.com/
2012/11/13/24-‐a-‐summary-‐of-‐
thinking-‐fast-‐and-‐slow-‐by-‐daniel-‐
kahneman/

Cogni&ve
Biases

•  80+
:
hep://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cogni&ve_biases

•  300+
:
heps://www.recobia.eu/
(
non
public)

•  Many
classiﬁca&ons

–  We
took
one
“ac&onable”,
inspired
by
the
DQ
101
Stanford
Mooc
(Karl

Spetzler)

•  Design
thinking
and
Cogni&ve
Bias

–  @stakken86
thesis
on
#DesignThinking
and
#Cogni&veBias
hep://goo.gl/wHU8bc

•  My
cura&on
:
hep://www.scoop.it/t/cogni&ve-‐bias

Experimen&ng
the
switch
between
S1

and
S2

Say loudly how may dots you see in the coming slides ,
as quickly as possible, and compare reaction time

Are
you
coun&ng
in
your
head
?

Subi&za&on

•  subi/za/on

•  (psychology)
The
process
of,
or
act
of,
glancing

at
a
group
of
a
few
objects
and
knowing
how

many
there
are
without
actually
coun&ng.

•  hep://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subi&zing

A
trip

to
Abilene

•  On
a
hot
a[ernoon
visi&ng
in
Coleman,
Texas,
the
family
is

comfortably
playing
dominoes
on
a
porch,
un&l
the
father-‐in-‐
law
suggests
that
they
take
a
trip
to
Abilene
[53
miles
north]

for
dinner.
The
wife
says,
"Sounds
like
a
great
idea."
The

husband,
despite
having
reserva&ons
because
the
drive
is

long
and
hot,
thinks
that
his
preferences
must
be
out-‐of-‐step

with
the
group
and
says,
"Sounds
good
to
me.
I
just
hope

your
mother
wants
to
go."
The
mother-‐in-‐law
then
says,
"Of

course
I
want
to
go.
I
haven't
been
to
Abilene
in
a
long

/me."

•  The
drive
is
hot,
dusty,
and
long.
When
they
arrive
at
the

cafeteria,
the
food
is
as
bad
as
the
drive.
They
arrive
back

home
four
hours
later,
exhausted.

A
trip
to
Abilene

•  One
of
them
dishonestly
says,
"It
was
a
great
trip,
wasn't
it?"

The
mother-‐in-‐law
says
that,
actually,
she
would
rather
have

stayed
home,
but
went
along
since
the
other
three
were
so

enthusias&c.
The
husband
says,
"I
wasn't
delighted
to
be

doing
what
we
were
doing.
I
only
went
to
sa&sfy
the
rest
of

you."
The
wife
says,
"I
just
went
along
to
keep
you
happy.
I

would
have
had
to
be
crazy
to
want
to
go
out
in
the
heat
like

that."
The
father-‐in-‐law
then
says
that
he
only
suggested
it

because
he
thought
the
others
might
be
bored.

•  The
group
sits
back,
perplexed
that
they
together
decided
to

take
a
trip
which
none
of
them
wanted.
They
each
would

have
preferred
to
sit
comfortably,
but
did
not
admit
to
it

when
they
s&ll
had
&me
to
enjoy
the
a[ernoon.

Group
thinking

•  A
Trip
to
Abilene

Timeboxing

– Threat
or
opportunity

– Aversion
to
loss

– Change
Resistance

– Pomodoro

Conﬁdence
is
built
on
the
experience

of
success

Conversa&onal
Intelligence

Fear
ac&vate
Cor&sol
and
shut

down
the
cortex

Trust,
Experiment,
Co-‐create

The
Middle
Op&on
is
never
selected…

However
inﬂuence
the
choice…

Framing

•  hep://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ng9V2JneJ68

•  “the
ﬁve-‐year
survival
rates
clearly
favor
surgery,
but
in
the

short
term
surgery
is
riskier
than
radia&on”

•  When
it
came
to
the
short
term
risks
of
surgery,
though,

•  half
of
the
doctors
were
shown
stats
that
referred
to
the

survival
rate
(which
is
90%
a[er
one
month),

•  while
the
other
half
of
the
doctors
were
shown
stats
that

referred
to
the
mortality
rate
(which
is
10%
a[er
one

month)
.

•  Here’s
Kahneman
with
the
results:
“you
already
know
the

results:
surgery
was
much
more
popular
in
the
former
frame

(84%
of
physicians
chose
it)
than
in
the
laeer
(where
50%

favored
radia&on).

Rela&ve

Es&ma&on

•  Wysa&
:
What
you
see
is
all
there
is.

•  Over
Op&mism

•  Over
confidence

•  in
some
quizzes,
people
rate
their
answers
as
"99%

certain"
but
are
wrong
40%
of
the
&me

•  93%
of
American
drivers
rate
themselves
as
beeer

than
the
median

•  For
difficult
tasks,
the
effect
reverses
itself
and

people
believe
they
are
worse
than
others

Planning
fallacy

•  The
planning
fallacy
describes
the
tendency
for
people
to
overes&mate
their
rate

of
work
or
to
underes&mate
how
long
it
will
take
them
to
get
things
done.[9]
It
is

strongest
for
long
and
complicated
tasks,
and
disappears
or
reverses
for
simple

tasks
that
are
quick
to
complete.

•  hep://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy

•  Another
study
asked
students
to
es&mate
when
they
would
complete
their

personal
academic
projects.
Specifically,
the
researchers
asked
for
es&mated
&mes

by
which
the
students
thought
it
was

50%,
75%,
and
99%
probable
their
personal

projects
would
be
done.[5]

•  13%
of
subjects
finished
their
project
by
the
&me
they
had
assigned
a
50%

probability
level;

•  19%
finished
by
the
&me
assigned
a
75%
probability
level;

•  45%
finished
by
the
&me
of
their
99%
probability
level.

The
monkey
is
crap
at
stats,

and
rare
events

He makes no difference between low
probability and low impact
if something can be recalled, it must be
important

Low
ﬁdelity
Prototype

Task
Board

– Visualize

– Project
to
understand
complexity
beeer

– (S2-‐>S1,
WYSIATI
)

Priming

•  Video

•  hep://m.youtube.com/watch?
v=HRAKt0GakJM

•  “the
‘Florida
effect’
involves
two
stages
of
priming.
First,
the
set
of
words
primes
thoughts
of
old
age,

though
the
word
old
is
never
men&oned
(“worried,”
“Florida,”
“old,”
“lonely,”
“gray,”
“bingo,
);
second,

these
thoughts
prime
a
behavior,
walking
slowly,
which
is
associated
with
old
age.
All
this
happens

without
any
awareness.
When
they
were
ques&oned
a[erward,
none
of
the
students
reported
no&cing

that
the
words
had
had
a
common
theme,
and
they
all
insisted
that
nothing
they
did
a[er
the
first

experiment
could
have
been
influenced
by
the
words
they
had
encountered.
The
idea
of
old
age
had
not

come
into
their
conscious
awareness,
but
their
ac&ons
changed
nevertheless”

Brainstorming:
the
65’s
way

•  Focus
on
quan/ty

•  Withhold
cri/cism

•  Welcome
unusual
ideas

•  Combine
and
improve
ideas

Brainstorming:
the
challenges

•  Blocking

•  Collabora/ve
ﬁxa/on

•  Evalua/on
apprehension

•  Free-‐riding

•  Personality
characteris/cs

•  Social
matching

Divergent
and
Convergent
Thinking

Priming
for
Crea&ve
Conversa&ons

•  Warm
vs
cold

– 
head
table
:
Authority
(
cold)
vs
round
table

(
warm)

– Hard
and
so[
chairs

– Whiteboard
:
we
will
have
an
open,
trus&ng

conversa&on
and
will
follow
through
with
our

agreements

•  Bad
Start
:
Disengage,
re
engage.
Humor.

Priming
for
Crea&ve
Conversa&ons

•  Friend
of
Foe
?
0,07
s…

•  FORCES:

– Fairness

– Ownership

– Reciprocity

– Coopera&on

– Open
Expression

– Status

•  Feel
Good
<>
Trust
:
(dopamine,
serotonine,

oxytocin
)

Or

•  Fearful

•  Sad

•  Depressed

•  Upset

•  Angry

•  Overly
S&mulated

– Excess
Dopamine;
norepinephrine
(stress)

– Increase
testosterone

– Steroids
(
strength)

– Cor&sol
takes
up
to
36
hours
to
clean
from
body

les
demandes
d'aide
explicites...

Retrospec&ves

•  What
did
we
do
well,
that
if
we
don’t
discuss
we

might
forget?

•  What
did
we
learn?

•  What
should
we
do
diﬀerently
next
/me?

•  What
s/ll
puzzles
us?

Priming
Rétrospec&ve

http://www.retrospectives.com/pages/
retroPrimeDirective.html
The prime directive says:One of the most obvious fears
people have when first trying a retrospective is that the ritual
will become a negative gripe session, interspersed with
blame and counter blame. Clearly such an event will not
contribute to much learning.
The key to a constructive successful ritual is assuring that all
the participants adhere to the Retrospective Prime Directive.
Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly
believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what
they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources
available, and the situation at hand.

Free
Choice
of
Tasks

– Not
invented
here

V
:
Forget
you
are
a
human

V
:
‘Simpliﬁed’
reality

the
waterfall
«
cycle
»

•  Which
bias
are
going
to
show
up

in
this

’cycle’?

Design
thinking

•  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Design_thinking

•  Le
Design
Thinking
est
une
méthode
de

créa&vité
et
de
son
management
qui
se

veut
une
synthèse
entre
la
pensée

analy&que
et
la
pensée
intui&ve.
Il

s'appuie
beaucoup
sur
un
processus
de

co-‐créa&vité
impliquant
des
retours
de

l'u&lisateur
ﬁnal.

Design
Thinking
Techniques

•  Loss
aversion

•  Confirma&on
bias

•  Sunk
cost
fallacy

•  Anchoring
bias

•  Overconfidence
bias

–  Above
average
:
all
the
children
are
above
average

–  limited
to
“easy”
tasks
in
which
success
is
common
or
in
which
people

feel
competent.
For
difficult
tasks,
the
effect
reverses
itself
and
people

believe
they
are
worse
than
others

–  Strikes,
lawsuits,
and
wars
could
arise
from
overplacement.

•  Framing

•  Deforma&on
Professionelle

Other
Prac&ces

•  Serious
games

•  Lean
startup

•  Design
thinking

•  Décision
quality

Game
storming
/
Serious
games

•  Jeux
sérieux

•  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeu_s
%C3%A9rieux

Decision
Quality

•  heps://novoed.com/DQ101

•  Mooc
@
Stanford

•  (La
classiﬁca&on
u&lisée
ici
vient
de
la)
.

Lean
startup

•  hep://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_Startup

Don’t
ﬁght
the
monkey

•  Bias
Exists
(and
now,
you
know,
too…)

•  They
can
be
denied
:
simplis&c
ra&onalism

•  They
cannot
be
removed

– There
is
no
bias-‐free
“human”

•  Human
keep
on
simplifying
reality
to
make

some
sense
of
it

Live
with
All
of
you

•  Cogni&ve
Dissonance
is
not
”pleasant”

– Empty
mind,
Bad
gut
feeling

– We
were
taught
to
avoid
this
(conform,
align…)

– Most
Prefer
to
stay
in
the
”comfort”
zone

•  It

takes
courage
to
step
out
the
ﬁrst
&me

– But
quickly
you
grow
to
become
a
learner,

because
it
is
rewarding

•  As
a
group,
this
means
a
transi&on
to
a

learning
‘Process’
/
Organisa&on.
(e.g.
Agile,

DT
..)

Knowing

and
Sharing

where
CB

impact
your

process

Plus
de
détails
...

La
Table
des
Ma&eres
Du
Livre

• 

i.
Introduc&on/Synopsis

• 

•  PART
I:
AN
INTRODUCTION
TO
THINKING,
WITH
A
FOCUS
ON
SYSTEM
1

• 

•  Sec&on
1:
An
Introduc&on
to
Thought,
Fast
and
Slow

• 

•  1.
Thought,
Fast
and
Slow

• 

•  Sec&on
2:
System
1
Under
the
Microscope

• 

•  2.
Learning
by
Associa&on
and
the
Priming
Effect

•  a.
Associa&on

•  b.
The
Priming
Effect

•  3.
Context
and
Causality

•  a.
Context

•  b.
Causality

•  4.
Judging
and
Evalua&ng
on
Limited
Evidence:
WYSIATI
and
Subs&tu&on

•  a.
WYSIATI

•  b.
Subs&tu&on

•  5.
When
System
1
Judges
People:
Stereotypes,
First
Impressions,
and
the
Halo
Effect

•  a.
Stereotypes

•  b.
First
Impressions

•  c.
The
Halo
Effect

•  6.
The
Interac&on
Between
System
1
and
System
2

• 

•  PART
II:
THE
ERRORS
OF
SYSTEM
1

• 

•  7.
An
Error
of
Associa&on
and
Priming:
The
Anchoring
Effect

• 

•  8.
The
Framing
Effect

• 

•  9.
File
Under
WYSIATI

•  a.
WYSIATI
and
Confidence

•  b.
WYSIATI
and
Es&ma&ons

•  c.
The
Two
Selves

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