L. Roppa Consulting
Luciano RoppaLuciano Roppa
DVMDVM
““Global meat production:Global meat production:
meeting the challen...
L. Roppa Consulting
 Feed 9 billion people by 2050
 Feed them better
 Contribute to overall development
 Contribute to...
L. Roppa Consulting
Which
are the
agribusiness
main
Drivers ?
Population growthPopulation growth
Dietary change, human hea...
L. Roppa Consulting
1,0 Billion Underfed
Actually, we are producing enough foodActually, we are producing enough food
…… b...
L. Roppa Consulting
0
20
40
60
80
100
USA + EU 27 + Japan RestWorld
13,7
86,7
60,0
40,0
Population
GDP
The key challenge: ...
L. Roppa Consulting
GERMANY:
The MELANDER family: 2 adults and 2 teenagers
Food expenditure for one week: 500 Dollars
L. Roppa Consulting
UNITED STATES:
The REVIS family: 2 adults and 2 teenagers
Food expenditure for one week: 341 Dollars
L. Roppa Consulting
EGYPT:
The AHMED family of Cairo: 7 adults and 5 kids
Food expenditure for one week: 68,50 Dollars
L. Roppa Consulting
ECUADOR:
The AYME family of Tingo: 4 adults and 5 teenagers
Food expenditure for one week: 31,50 Dolla...
L. Roppa Consulting
CHAD:
The ABOUBAKAR family of Breidjing Camp: 3 adults and 3 kids
Food expenditure for one week: 1,20 ...
L. Roppa Consulting
2009 2050 Dif. %
Asia 4,077 5,130 25,8
Africa 0,990 2,112 113,3
Latin America 0,583 0,782 34,1
North A...
L. Roppa Consulting
Asia
Africa
Americas
Europe
Oceania
6060
1212
1414
1313
5858
2222
1313
77
2000 2050
Continental Popula...
L. Roppa Consulting
World massive urbanization in 2050
Urban
Rural
20501950
75 %
25 %
70 %
30 %
+ 2.7 billion in urban are...
L. Roppa Consulting
Proportion of Population aged 60 years or over, 1950-2050Proportion of Population aged 60 years or ove...
L. Roppa Consulting
The Income growth is growing …
 Overall a richer world by 2050
Source: FAO data – Elaboration: L. Rop...
L. Roppa Consulting
GDP (PPP) 2010
(trillion dollar)
USA 14,6
China 10,1
Japan 4,3
India 4,0
Germany 2,9
Russia 2,21
Unite...
L. Roppa Consulting
YearYear GDPGDP
(USD 1995/capita)(USD 1995/capita)
Meat consumption,Meat consumption,
Kg/person/yearKg...
L. Roppa Consulting
20082008 20182018 Increase, %Increase, % Quantity,Quantity,
Million MTMillion MT
EU 27EU 27 37,237,2 3...
L. Roppa Consulting
Meat consumption by species, 2010 to 2019
2007-09,2007-09,
Kg/person/yearKg/person/year
2019,2019,
Kg/...
L. Roppa Consulting
Meat consumption growth perspectives, 2010-2019
EMERGING MARKETS: main driversEMERGING MARKETS: main d...
L. Roppa Consulting
The world’s average daily calorie availability
could increase 12% over its level in 2005.
YearYear KCa...
L. Roppa Consulting
Kilocalories consumption per capita (Kcal/day)
3800
2850
3400
2450
2650
3200
L. Roppa Consulting
Food consumption per capita,
by Continent, 2009
Source: Luciano Roppa, 2010
MeatMeat CerealsCereals Oi...
L. Roppa Consulting
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2
DIET
COMPOSITION
Dietetic, organic
& Functional
Fresh ...
L. Roppa Consulting
Food … futureFood … future
 Improving food safetyImproving food safety
 Health and WellnessHealth an...
L. Roppa Consulting
How much Meat will we have
to produce in the next 10 years?
L. Roppa Consulting
Beef: 16,3Beef: 16,3
Pig: 59,8Pig: 59,8
Poultry: 34,2Poultry: 34,2
Milk: 255,6Milk: 255,6
Beef: 16,9Be...
L. Roppa Consulting
Meat production growth by country,
2010 to 2019 (MMT)
2007-092007-09 20192019 growth%growth% QuantityQ...
L. Roppa Consulting
Meat production growth perspectives, 2010-2019
OECDOECD NON OECDNON OECD
PORKPORK 39,539,5 63,063,0
PO...
L. Roppa Consulting
Meat production growth by species, 2010 to 2019
Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Total
meat
Human
population
20...
L. Roppa Consulting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1985 2008 2020
Poultry
Pork
Beef
Others
5,5 5,1 6,9
31,8 2...
L. Roppa Consulting
Number
(billions)
Biomass
(millions
MT)
Annual
Production
(millions MT)
Efficiency Water, m3
per kg of...
L. Roppa Consulting
Environmental impacts:
relative contribution of the main species
Poultry meat has the least impact on ...
L. Roppa Consulting
Poultry meat production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT)
SourceSource: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2...
L. Roppa Consulting
Beef Cattle production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT)
SourceSource: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-20...
L. Roppa Consulting
Pig meat production growth, 2010 to 2019Pig meat production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT)(MMT)
SourceSour...
L. Roppa Consulting
Milk production growth, 2010 to 2019Milk production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT)(MMT)
SourceSource: “OCD...
L. Roppa Consulting
BeefBeef PoultryPoultry PorkPork TotalTotal
USAUSA 1,5151,515 0,0400,040 0,5740,574 2,1292,129
JapanJa...
L. Roppa Consulting
Who would be able to export moreWho would be able to export more
meat in the near future (2019)?meat i...
L. Roppa Consulting
Future directions and challenges
L. Roppa Consulting
Are you,
as a Leader,
ready
for these
changes?
PAST FUTURE
Efficient Effective
Compliance Commitment
A...
L. Roppa Consulting
Is your
Company
ready
for these
changes?
Lessons from the economic crisis
Cost Efficient Companies are...
L. Roppa Consulting
Are we ready for these changes?Are we ready for these changes?
Broilers weight gain evolution
19801980...
L. Roppa Consulting
What do youWhat do you
knowknow
about theabout the
growinggrowing
markets?markets?
Do you understand:D...
L. Roppa Consulting
Summary 5Summary 5
To attend growth demand, meat productionTo attend growth demand, meat production
wi...
L. Roppa Consulting
Phone: (19) 8176 14 09
Email: Lroppa@uol.com.br
Address: Rua Araca, 567
Alphaville
13.098-379 Campinas...
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Global meat production to 2019, meat, challenges, trends, main meat producers, consumption, exports and imports, Developing countries, livestock, trends, meat production, meat consumption, food, pork, beef, poultry, swine, pigmeat,

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Global population will increase to 9 billion persons in 2050. Are we producing enough food (meat) actually? Are we ready to attend future meat demands? Developing countries are increasing the meat production and meat consumption two times more than Developed countries. Brazil and USA are the actual meat exports leaders. Nutrition.

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  • canyou plz send me a soft copy sir
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  • can you sent me a softcopy sir
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  • Hola podria enviarme el numero telefonico de TCTS Global , y Celular , asi como e meil .
    gracias

    Atte. Ing. Victor A. Osuna Cota
    Georgia
    478 235 1778
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  • Dear Dr> Luciano:
    Fantastic. Your presentation shows how animal protein is needed to feed a hungry world. An empty stomach doest need poltics, needs food.
    Congratulations.

    Helio Schorr
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  • Congrats, man. You suceeded to put all the sickness that exist in our culture in just 46 slides.

    You are seriously advising this kind of stuff to agro corporations? I accept that this kind of thinking will earn them (and you) a lot of money, but do you really believe it can change something in the world? 'Renomate researchers?' Name them, show us their arguments so we can discuss.

    With your approach, you will solve problems short-term, maybe. Long-term, you are actually creating world that is going to be malnutritioned and poisoned. Yes, people will not be hungry, but they will not be healthy at all, quite the opposite.
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Global meat production to 2019, meat, challenges, trends, main meat producers, consumption, exports and imports, Developing countries, livestock, trends, meat production, meat consumption, food, pork, beef, poultry, swine, pigmeat,

  1. 1. L. Roppa Consulting Luciano RoppaLuciano Roppa DVMDVM ““Global meat production:Global meat production: meeting the challenge inmeeting the challenge in a changing world”a changing world”
  2. 2. L. Roppa Consulting  Feed 9 billion people by 2050  Feed them better  Contribute to overall development  Contribute to poverty reduction The agribusiness key challenges
  3. 3. L. Roppa Consulting Which are the agribusiness main Drivers ? Population growthPopulation growth Dietary change, human healthDietary change, human health Agriculture harvest and stocksAgriculture harvest and stocks Fast emerging large integratorsFast emerging large integrators Energy (biomass)Energy (biomass) Globalization (trade)Globalization (trade) DiseasesDiseases Climate changeClimate change Market speculatorsMarket speculators (hedge founds)(hedge founds) Water and Land availabilityWater and Land availability
  4. 4. L. Roppa Consulting 1,0 Billion Underfed Actually, we are producing enough foodActually, we are producing enough food …… but food is unevenly distributed around the worldbut food is unevenly distributed around the world 1,3 Billion Overweight Source: WHO (World Health Organization), 2009.
  5. 5. L. Roppa Consulting 0 20 40 60 80 100 USA + EU 27 + Japan RestWorld 13,7 86,7 60,0 40,0 Population GDP The key challenge: GDP distribution (World 2009: 6,5 Trillion Dollars GDP and 6,7 billions people)
  6. 6. L. Roppa Consulting GERMANY: The MELANDER family: 2 adults and 2 teenagers Food expenditure for one week: 500 Dollars
  7. 7. L. Roppa Consulting UNITED STATES: The REVIS family: 2 adults and 2 teenagers Food expenditure for one week: 341 Dollars
  8. 8. L. Roppa Consulting EGYPT: The AHMED family of Cairo: 7 adults and 5 kids Food expenditure for one week: 68,50 Dollars
  9. 9. L. Roppa Consulting ECUADOR: The AYME family of Tingo: 4 adults and 5 teenagers Food expenditure for one week: 31,50 Dollars
  10. 10. L. Roppa Consulting CHAD: The ABOUBAKAR family of Breidjing Camp: 3 adults and 3 kids Food expenditure for one week: 1,20 Dollars
  11. 11. L. Roppa Consulting 2009 2050 Dif. % Asia 4,077 5,130 25,8 Africa 0,990 2,112 113,3 Latin America 0,583 0,782 34,1 North America 0,340 0,480 41,1 Europe 0,728 0,647 - 11,1 Oceania 0,034 0,049 - 30,6 World 6,752 9,200 36,2 + 2,4 billion people in 2050+ 2,4 billion people in 2050 87 %87 % 13 %13 % Consumers’ number is growing …
  12. 12. L. Roppa Consulting Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 6060 1212 1414 1313 5858 2222 1313 77 2000 2050 Continental Population Shift, 2000-2050 Highest growth in poorest region (%)
  13. 13. L. Roppa Consulting World massive urbanization in 2050 Urban Rural 20501950 75 % 25 % 70 % 30 % + 2.7 billion in urban areas
  14. 14. L. Roppa Consulting Proportion of Population aged 60 years or over, 1950-2050Proportion of Population aged 60 years or over, 1950-2050 Source: United Nations, DESA, 2005 – Elaboration: L. Roppa. ... And it will be a population with more aged people... And it will be a population with more aged people
  15. 15. L. Roppa Consulting The Income growth is growing …  Overall a richer world by 2050 Source: FAO data – Elaboration: L. Roppa, 2010. Year GDP (USD 1995/capita) 1990 4.535 2000 5.217 2010 6.103 2030 8.286 2050 11.248
  16. 16. L. Roppa Consulting GDP (PPP) 2010 (trillion dollar) USA 14,6 China 10,1 Japan 4,3 India 4,0 Germany 2,9 Russia 2,21 United Kingdom 2,18 GDP (PPP) 2050 (trillion dollar) China 49,0 USA 38,0 India 27,0 Japan 8,0 Brazil 8,0 Mexico 7,8 Russia 6,2 Source: Wikipedia, Oct 2010 – Elaboration: L. Roppa, 2010.Source: Wikipedia, Oct 2010 – Elaboration: L. Roppa, 2010. Where will increase the purchasing power?
  17. 17. L. Roppa Consulting YearYear GDPGDP (USD 1995/capita)(USD 1995/capita) Meat consumption,Meat consumption, Kg/person/yearKg/person/year 19901990 4.5354.535 34,134,1 20002000 5.2175.217 38,638,6 20102010 6.1036.103 43,343,3 20302030 8.2868.286 54,654,6 20502050 11.24811.248 68,868,8 Source: Projections of Global Meat Production Through 2050 , Thomas E. Elam, Center for Global Food Issues – Elaboration: L. Roppa, 2010. As income grows, meat consumption grows …
  18. 18. L. Roppa Consulting 20082008 20182018 Increase, %Increase, % Quantity,Quantity, Million MTMillion MT EU 27EU 27 37,237,2 37,737,7 1,31,3 0,50,5 USAUSA 35,335,3 36,936,9 4,54,5 1,61,6 ChinaChina 65,465,4 76,076,0 16,216,2 10,610,6 BrazilBrazil 16,516,5 18,218,2 10,310,3 1,71,7 RussiaRussia 7,07,0 8,28,2 17,117,1 1,21,2 IndiaIndia 3,93,9 4,64,6 17,917,9 0,70,7 2,1 14,2 Source: “AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK 2008-2017 A comparative analysis of projections published by OECD, FAO, FAPRI and USDA”, 31 July 2008. European commission. Global meat consumption increase, 2008 – 2018 (million MT) Global meat consumption increase, 2008 – 2018 (million MT)
  19. 19. L. Roppa Consulting Meat consumption by species, 2010 to 2019 2007-09,2007-09, Kg/person/yearKg/person/year 2019,2019, Kg/person/yearKg/person/year PORKPORK 15,215,2 16,616,6 POULTRYPOULTRY 13,513,5 15,315,3 BEEFBEEF 9,59,5 9,79,7 SHEEPSHEEP 1,81,8 2,02,0 TOTALTOTAL 40,040,0 43,643,6 Source: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration: Luciano Roppa, June 2010
  20. 20. L. Roppa Consulting Meat consumption growth perspectives, 2010-2019 EMERGING MARKETS: main driversEMERGING MARKETS: main drivers -- GROWING POPULATIONGROWING POPULATION - RISING PER CAPITA INCOMES- RISING PER CAPITA INCOMES - URBANIZATIONURBANIZATION - CHANGING DIET PATERNSCHANGING DIET PATERNS (from grains to processed food)(from grains to processed food) DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: main driversDEVELOPED COUNTRIES: main drivers - AGINGAGING - DIETS AND HEALTHDIETS AND HEALTH - QUALITYQUALITY (taste, pathogen free)(taste, pathogen free) -- ANIMAL WELFAREANIMAL WELFARE -- ENVIROMENTALENVIROMENTAL parametersparameters OECDOECD NON OECDNON OECD PORKPORK 23,323,3 9,29,2 POULTRYPOULTRY 25,825,8 8,78,7 BEEFBEEF 15,015,0 4,74,7 TOTALTOTAL 64,164,1 22,622,6 OECDOECD NON OECDNON OECD PORKPORK 0,70,7 2,32,3 POULTRYPOULTRY 1,61,6 2,82,8 BEEFBEEF 0,60,6 2,12,1 TOTALTOTAL 0,980,98 2,402,40 2009 consumption per capita (kg/year)2009 consumption per capita (kg/year) Consumption growth 2010-19 (%/year)Consumption growth 2010-19 (%/year)
  21. 21. L. Roppa Consulting The world’s average daily calorie availability could increase 12% over its level in 2005. YearYear KCal Available per personKCal Available per person 19601960 23602360 20052005 28002800 20302030 30403040 20502050 31303130 Source: FAO data – Elaboration: L. Roppa, 2010. As income grows, food quality improves …As income grows, food quality improves …
  22. 22. L. Roppa Consulting Kilocalories consumption per capita (Kcal/day) 3800 2850 3400 2450 2650 3200
  23. 23. L. Roppa Consulting Food consumption per capita, by Continent, 2009 Source: Luciano Roppa, 2010 MeatMeat CerealsCereals OilseedsOilseeds SugarSugar GDP/capitaGDP/capita AsiaAsia 28,328,3 163,7163,7 22,022,0 18,218,2 5,1005,100 AfricaAfrica 11,211,2 145,8145,8 2,02,0 14,114,1 2,0202,020 Latin AmericaLatin America 69,169,1 151,1151,1 13,413,4 50,450,4 7,3007,300 EuropeEurope 78,178,1 142,9142,9 8,88,8 40,540,5 19,40019,400 NorthNorth AmericaAmerica 116,7116,7 118,9118,9 9,69,6 31,431,4 36,40036,400
  24. 24. L. Roppa Consulting 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 DIET COMPOSITION Dietetic, organic & Functional Fresh & Convenience, Segmented meals Meat, Dairy, Eggs, & sugar Carbohydrates (Cereals, roots, rice & beans) GDP Survive Basic Quality High Tec China India Sub Saharan Africa Oriental Europe Latin America Occidental Europe USA Japan … and food habits change.… and food habits change. Prepared meals & snacks Wellbeing Convenience Pleasure Safety Price
  25. 25. L. Roppa Consulting Food … futureFood … future  Improving food safetyImproving food safety  Health and WellnessHealth and Wellness  Strengthening consumers confidenceStrengthening consumers confidence  Functional foods to prevent food related pathologiesFunctional foods to prevent food related pathologies (nutraceuticals)(nutraceuticals)
  26. 26. L. Roppa Consulting How much Meat will we have to produce in the next 10 years?
  27. 27. L. Roppa Consulting Beef: 16,3Beef: 16,3 Pig: 59,8Pig: 59,8 Poultry: 34,2Poultry: 34,2 Milk: 255,6Milk: 255,6 Beef: 16,9Beef: 16,9 Pig: 6,4Pig: 6,4 Poultry: 19,6Poultry: 19,6 Milk: 75,0Milk: 75,0 Beef: 4,8Beef: 4,8 Pig: 0,8Pig: 0,8 Poultry: 4,0Poultry: 4,0 Milk: 36,2Milk: 36,2 Beef: 2,7Beef: 2,7 Pig: 0,5Pig: 0,5 Poultry: 1,0Poultry: 1,0 Milk: 25,7Milk: 25,7 Beef: 10,9Beef: 10,9 Pig: 26,1Pig: 26,1 Poultry: 15,3Poultry: 15,3 Milk: 212,7Milk: 212,7 Beef: 13,3Beef: 13,3 Pig: 12,4Pig: 12,4 Poultry: 20,6Poultry: 20,6 Milk: 93,8Milk: 93,8 Where is the meat production today, 2009 NA 46,7 SA 43,8 Europe 54,8 Asia 121,1 Africa 13,1 5,9
  28. 28. L. Roppa Consulting Meat production growth by country, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) 2007-092007-09 20192019 growth%growth% QuantityQuantity WorldWorld 271,5271,5 334,5334,5 23,223,2 63,063,0 EU 27EU 27 42,0642,06 42,2442,24 0,40,4 0,180,18 USAUSA 40,3840,38 44,9044,90 11,211,2 4,524,52 ChinaChina 66,5866,58 89,6389,63 34,634,6 23,0523,05 BrazilBrazil 23,6723,67 31,5231,52 33,233,2 7,857,85 RussiaRussia 5,645,64 7,927,92 40,440,4 2,282,28 4,7 33,2 Source: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration: Luciano Roppa, June 2010
  29. 29. L. Roppa Consulting Meat production growth perspectives, 2010-2019 OECDOECD NON OECDNON OECD PORKPORK 39,539,5 63,063,0 POULTRYPOULTRY 38,938,9 52,352,3 BEEFBEEF 27,527,5 37,737,7 SHEEPSHEEP 2,92,9 9,69,6 TOTALTOTAL 108,8108,8 132,6132,6 OECDOECD NON OECDNON OECD PORKPORK 0,70,7 2,32,3 POULTRYPOULTRY 1,31,3 3,03,0 BEEFBEEF 0,50,5 2,22,2 SHEEPSHEEP 0,60,6 2,52,5 TOTALTOTAL 0,770,77 2,502,50 2009 meat production (million MT)2009 meat production (million MT) Production growth 2010-19 (%/year)Production growth 2010-19 (%/year)
  30. 30. L. Roppa Consulting Meat production growth by species, 2010 to 2019 Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Total meat Human population 2007- 09 65,2 102,5 91,2 12,5 271,5 6,600 2019 74,6 126,6 117,8 15,4 334,5 7,670 Growth,% 14,4 23,3 29,2 23,3 23,2 16,2 Source: L. Roppa, 2010 - Based: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019.
  31. 31. L. Roppa Consulting 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1985 2008 2020 Poultry Pork Beef Others 5,5 5,1 6,9 31,8 23,4 22,3 39,3 36,9 34,1 20,9 33,2 36,7 World meat production:World meat production: Participation by specie, 1985 to 2020, %.Participation by specie, 1985 to 2020, %.
  32. 32. L. Roppa Consulting Number (billions) Biomass (millions MT) Annual Production (millions MT) Efficiency Water, m3 per kg of meat Cattle 1.41 332 52.6 6,3 16 Goats & Muttons 1.57 36 9.9 3,6 10 Swine 1.36 47 87.2 0,5 6 Poultry 13.90 12 58.1 0,2 3 Source: Verstegen, 2005Source: Verstegen, 2005 && Executive Summary of the “1st World water development”, FAO, 1997Executive Summary of the “1st World water development”, FAO, 1997 Elaboration: Luciano Roppa, 2008Elaboration: Luciano Roppa, 2008 Animal efficiency and meat productionAnimal efficiency and meat production
  33. 33. L. Roppa Consulting Environmental impacts: relative contribution of the main species Poultry meat has the least impact on the environment per kg of meat produced Source: IMPRO, 2008 - Elaboration: Luciano Roppa 2009
  34. 34. L. Roppa Consulting Poultry meat production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) SourceSource: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 ElaborationElaboration: Luciano Roppa, June 2010: Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-092007-09 20192019 Increase, %Increase, % WorldWorld 91,2291,22 117,85117,85 29,229,2 1 - USA1 - USA 18,9018,90 21,2821,28 12,612,6 2 - China2 - China 14,9514,95 20,6120,61 37,837,8 3 -Brazil3 -Brazil 11, 4811, 48 16,7116,71 45,545,5 4 - EU 274 - EU 27 11,5311,53 11,8411,84 2,72,7 5 - India5 - India 2,502,50 3,913,91 56,456,4 6 – Mexico6 – Mexico 2,582,58 2,952,95 14,314,3 7 - Russia7 - Russia 1,971,97 2,922,92 48,248,2
  35. 35. L. Roppa Consulting Beef Cattle production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) SourceSource: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 ElaborationElaboration: Luciano Roppa, June 2010: Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-092007-09 20192019 Increase, %Increase, % World 65,22 74,64 14,4 1 - USA 11,46 12,05 5,1 2 - Brazil 9,16 11,15 21,7 3 - EU 27 8,08 7,30 - 9,6 4 - China 6,01 6,72 11,8 5 - India 2,92 3,65 25,0 6 - Argentina6 - Argentina 3,223,22 3,243,24 -- 7 - Australia7 - Australia 2,352,35 2,672,67 13,613,6
  36. 36. L. Roppa Consulting Pig meat production growth, 2010 to 2019Pig meat production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT)(MMT) SourceSource: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 ElaborationElaboration: Luciano Roppa, June 2010: Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-092007-09 20192019 Increase, %Increase, % World 102,54 126,65126,65 23,523,5 1 - China 45,62 62,3062,30 36,536,5 2 - EU 27 22,45 23,0923,09 2,82,8 3 - USA 10,02 11,5611,56 15,315,3 4 - Brazil 3,03 3,663,66 20,820,8 5 - Russia 1,93 2.622.62 35,735,7 6 - Canada6 - Canada 2,222,22 2,152,15 - 3,1- 3,1 7 - Mexico7 - Mexico 1,131,13 1,221,22 7,97,9
  37. 37. L. Roppa Consulting Milk production growth, 2010 to 2019Milk production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT)(MMT) SourceSource: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 ElaborationElaboration: Luciano Roppa, June 2010: Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-092007-09 20192019 Increase, %Increase, % WorldWorld 677,45677,45 848,50848,50 25,225,2 1 - UE 271 - UE 27 147,37147,37 151,06151,06 2,52,5 2 - India2 - India 105,83105,83 147,95147,95 39,839,8 3 - USA3 - USA 85,3985,39 95,3895,38 11,711,7 4 - Pakistan4 - Pakistan 35,2635,26 58,5958,59 66,166,1 5 - China 36,85 56,9756,97 54,654,6 6 - Russia6 - Russia 32,3132,31 38,3138,31 18,518,5 7 - Brazil7 - Brazil 27,4427,44 36,3036,30 32,332,3
  38. 38. L. Roppa Consulting BeefBeef PoultryPoultry PorkPork TotalTotal USAUSA 1,5151,515 0,0400,040 0,5740,574 2,1292,129 JapanJapan 0,7200,720 0,2340,234 1,1501,150 2,1042,104 MexicoMexico 0,3830,383 0,9980,998 0,5200,520 1,9011,901 EU-27EU-27 0,6430,643 1,2101,210 0,0400,040 1,8931,893 RussiaRussia 0,5580,558 0,5480,548 0,2480,248 1,3541,354 Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia 0,2300,230 1,0151,015 0,0050,005 1,2501,250 ChinaChina 0,0330,033 0,7730,773 0,4010,401 1,2071,207 South KoreaSouth Korea 0,3480,348 0,1600,160 0,5580,558 1,0661,066 Who would import more meatWho would import more meat in the next 10 years?in the next 10 years? Main meat importers, 2019 (million MT) SourceSource: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 ElaborationElaboration: Luciano Roppa, June 2010: Luciano Roppa, June 2010
  39. 39. L. Roppa Consulting Who would be able to export moreWho would be able to export more meat in the near future (2019)?meat in the near future (2019)? BeefBeef && VealVeal PorkPork PoultryPoultry TotalTotal BrazilBrazil 2,5562,556 0,7060,706 5,9725,972 9,2349,234 USAUSA 1,1451,145 2,7882,788 3,0963,096 7,0297,029 EU-27EU-27 0,0320,032 1,0091,009 0,8950,895 1,9361,936 CanadaCanada 0,5190,519 1,1821,182 0,1900,190 1,8911,891 WorldWorld 8,8458,845 6,6476,647 13,17513,175 28,66728,667 Main meat exporters, 2019 (million MT) SourceSource: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 ElaborationElaboration: Luciano Roppa, June 2010: Luciano Roppa, June 2010
  40. 40. L. Roppa Consulting Future directions and challenges
  41. 41. L. Roppa Consulting Are you, as a Leader, ready for these changes? PAST FUTURE Efficient Effective Compliance Commitment Art Science Doing things right Doing the right things
  42. 42. L. Roppa Consulting Is your Company ready for these changes? Lessons from the economic crisis Cost Efficient Companies are in better position Alliances with clients and suppliers are very important Innovation is essential
  43. 43. L. Roppa Consulting Are we ready for these changes?Are we ready for these changes? Broilers weight gain evolution 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20202020 WeightWeight (g)(g) 1.1351.135 1.5881.588 2.0422.042 2.4952.495 2.9482.948 ADG (g)ADG (g) 2727 3838 4949 5959 7070 Days toDays to 2.200 kg2.200 kg 81,581,5 57,957,9 44,944,9 37,337,3 31,431,4
  44. 44. L. Roppa Consulting What do youWhat do you knowknow about theabout the growinggrowing markets?markets? Do you understand:Do you understand: - Their Culture?- Their Culture? - How they do business?- How they do business? - Their Costs?- Their Costs? - Their products preferences?- Their products preferences?
  45. 45. L. Roppa Consulting Summary 5Summary 5 To attend growth demand, meat productionTo attend growth demand, meat production will need to increase 23% from 2010 to 2019will need to increase 23% from 2010 to 2019 China, Brazil and USA will leadChina, Brazil and USA will lead meat production increasemeat production increase Brazil and USA will lead Meat exportsBrazil and USA will lead Meat exports China, Japan and Mexico will lead Meat importsChina, Japan and Mexico will lead Meat imports
  46. 46. L. Roppa Consulting Phone: (19) 8176 14 09 Email: Lroppa@uol.com.br Address: Rua Araca, 567 Alphaville 13.098-379 Campinas Brazil L. Roppa Consulting

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