Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Jetse Stoorvogel

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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Jetse Stoorvogel

  1. 1. Trade-offs at landscape/watershed level The assessment Jetse Stoorvogel Soil Geography and Landscape Group Wageningen University Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  2. 2. Trade-offs at landscape/watershed levelThe assessment From indicators to trade-offs/synergies The unique element of the landscape/watershed level Analysing the tradeoffs Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  3. 3. The indicatorsThe objective The indicators Rural development  Economic indicators Environmental sustainability  Environmental indicators Payments for Ecosystem services  Social Indicators ...  ... Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  4. 4. Single factor solutions The case of soil erosion in Machakos, KenyaMore people, Less erosionTiffen et al., 1994 Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  5. 5. Analysis in a single dimensionThe indicators $ Economic indicators Cost/benefit Environmental indicators analysis Social Indicators ... Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  6. 6. Trade-off analysis Environmental quality Trade-off Agricultural productivity Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  7. 7. Trade-off analysis Environmental quality Synergy Agricultural productivity Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  8. 8. Scale levels – starting point Regression models at two scale levels for arable crops in Ecuador De Koning et al., 1998 Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  9. 9. Characteristics of different scale levels Farm Landscape/ Watershed Region/ Continent Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  10. 10. How do we deal with the population offarmers? – representative farms Farm Farm Farm Farm Type Type Type Type I II III IV Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  11. 11. How do we deal with the population offarmers? – sample of farms Sample of farms Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  12. 12. How do we deal with the population offarmers? – population of farms Statistical description Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  13. 13. How do we deal with the population offarmers? – population of farms Strata Strata Strata Strata I II III IV Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  14. 14. How do we deal with the population offarmers? – All farms All farms Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  15. 15. Simulating representative farms How representative are representative farms? Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  16. 16. Example: variation in a case Western Kenya Variable Explained variance # of adults 26.6 % Dist. to market 0.7% Farm size 5.3% Education 64.6% Total TLU 1.4% Fertilizer 0.8% Salasya and Stoorvogel, 2010 Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  17. 17. Simulating representative farms How representative are representative farms? Generalization of the farm scale models Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  18. 18. Simulating a sample of farms Inherent productivity (crop growth simulation models) Land management: crop selection and management (econometric simulation model) Environmental impact (Erosion, pesticide leaching, fertility loss….) Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  19. 19. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  20. 20. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  21. 21. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  22. 22. Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  23. 23. Pathways of poverty Manure availability Maize price Poverty Low High Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  24. 24. Simulating a population of farms What is the question? ● Comparison of two systems (Adoption, PES, CC) Parsimonious approach ● E.g., Adoption is an economic choice Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  25. 25. Simulating a population of farms PES Opportunity cost Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  26. 26. Simulating a population of farms PES Derivation of adoption rate from spatial distribution of opportunity cost Case3 PES0 Case 2 ( ) Rate 100 Case 1 Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  27. 27. Climate change impacts for Vihaga (Kenya) Seasonal loss % of farm population Claessens et al., 2012 Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  28. 28. Simulating all farms The case of spatial interactions Claessens et al., 2010 Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen
  29. 29. Tradeoffs for thelandscape/watershed Idiosyncrasy Standardization (harmonization) parsimonious approaches Ex-ante analysis Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems February 19-21, Wageningen

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