1. When Will EVs “Cross the Chasm” into
the Mainstream in the US?
Loren McDonald
EVAdoption.com
Twitter: @EVAdoptionTweet
EVAdoption.com

2. Electric Vehicles Are NOT Just Cars With an Electric Motor …
But a shift to an
entirely new type of
technology product

3. “Crossing the Chasm” = 16% of New Car Sales
(aka Technology Adoption Curve)

4. 2022
2025
2028
2030

5. So Where Are We
Today?

6. US Electric Vehicle (BEV + PHEV) Sales Fell Just Short of 2% in 2018

7. 2018 California EV Sales Reached 7.8% in & 46.8 % of US EV Sales
7.84% of Calif
new vehicle
sales

8. EV Sales Are Mostly Happening on the Coasts

9. So Why Aren’t More
Consumers Buying EVs?

10. 16%
of Americans say they are
likely to buy an electric
vehicle the next time they
are in the market for a
new or used vehicle.
AAA Consumer Survey, May 2019

11. What holds US
consumers back
from buying an EV?
1. Not enough range
2. Not enough charging
stations
3. EVs too expensive
4. Not enough model
variety
5. Charging takes too
long

12. 74%
of Americans who are
likely to buy an electric
vehicle would do so out of
concern for the
environment.
AAA Consumer Survey, May 2019

13. US State EV Sales Share Ranges from 0.2% to 8% - Why?
What causes such
significant differences in
EV sales across the US
states?
What causes such
significant differences in
EV sales across the US
states?
What causes such
significant differences in
EV sales across the US
states?
.22% to 1%
1% to 2%
2% to 8%

14. New Regression
Analysis Research

15. EVAdoption.com
Regression Analysis: State EV Sales Share > 29 Independent Variables
Number of EV models available
Weighted EV models available per state
EV ratio to charging stations
EV connections per location
ZEV state
Incentives - rebates/tax credits
HOV lane access
Price of gas
Cost of electricity (kWh)
Percentage of state's electricity from solar
Energy consumption per capita
Ratio of solar installations to # of households
Percent of grid’s electricity from renewable sources
Household median income
Vehicle miles traveled per capita
% with bachelor’s degree
Apartment resident share of state population
% Asian ethnicity
% light trucks purchases
Average age of vehicles
Median MSRP of cars purchased
Average winter temperature
Red state/blue state party affiliation
Climate change is happening
% urban miles driven
State green score
% take public transportation
Monthly car payment as a % of monthly income
Number of persons for every Prius - 2010
@EVAdoptionTweet

16. EVAdoption.com
Regression Analysis: The Statically Significant 7 Independent Variables
Number of EV models available
EV connections per location
Price of gas
Ratio of solar installations to # of households
Percent of grid’s electricity from renewable sources
Household median income
% light trucks purchases
@EVAdoptionTweet

17. Variable
Standardized
Coefficients Beta
Notes
Price of Gas .346 Causal, but unpredictable
Ratio of solar installations to
# of households
.299
Solar is a proxy for eco-consumers
who want to “save the planet”
% of the grid’s electricity
from renewable sources
.265
Speaks to the general “green
sensibility of the state”
Household median income .231
EVs more expensive, many are
luxury/performance models
# of EV models available .184 More EV models = more sales - duh
% light trucks (SUVs, pickups,
vans) purchased
-.173
No EV pickups yet, more rural states
aren’t inclined toward EVs
EV charging connections per
location
.131
Likely driven by Tesla Superchargers
which avg 9 stations per location

18. Forecast:
US and California

19. EV Sales Cross
the Chasm in
2028

20. EV Sales Cross
the Chasm in
2022

21. Key Enablers and
Hurdles to Mass
Adoption

22. EVAdoption.com
(1) Gas Prices: Consumers Point to $4 Per Gallon of Gas as an EV Tipping Point
Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book May 2018 Consumer Survey
Gas prices are a huge and unpredictable variable
@EVAdoptionTweet

23. (2) Range: BEV Average Battery Range Will Reach 300 miles in 2023
Range anxiety will all but disappear
from the early majority in 3-5 years

24. EVAdoption.com
(3) Affordability: EV Versus ICE Price Differentials Average ~$9,000
PHEV = $6,750 higher –
without incentives
@EVAdoptionTweet

25. (3) Affordability:
Price Delta With
Shared Models
Correlates With
EV Sales
Volume
Offering Electric Variants of ICE or
Hybrid is a Recipe for Low EV Sales

26. (3) Affordability: Continuous Declining Battery Prices = Cost Parity ~2026
But will that translate into BEV car
prices at parity with ICE vehicles?

27. EVAdoption.com @EVAdoptionTweet
(4) Model Availability: SUV/CUV/Sedan Have 90-120 More ICE Models Than EVs
Lack of EV options – including non-luxury and
pickups will be a major hurdle

28. (4) Model Availability: States with Most Models Also Have Highest Sales %

29. EVAdoption.com
(5) Charging Infrastructure: Likely to Keep Pace With EV Sales Due to Aggressive Plans
@EVAdoptionTweet

30. EVAdoption.com
(5) Charging Infrastructure: Renters Are ~40% of Households - Huge Charging Challenge
@EVAdoptionTweet
Apartment owners do not feel obligated to be provide
“refueling stations”

31. EVAdoption.com
(6) Charging Speed: Super Fast Charging is on the Way
@EVAdoptionTweet
300+ mile range + 15-20 minute charging that adds
200 miles will be common in ~4 years

32. EVAdoption.com
(7) Awareness: Advertising Will Not Solve the “What’s An EV?” Challenge
@EVAdoptionTweet
Marketing vs Advertising:
Drive events, EV 101, Social, Influencer Marketing

33. EVAdoption.com
(8) Supply of Battery Packs and Models is a One of the Biggest Hurdles to EV Sales
"Demand for the Chevrolet Bolt EV, especially in the United
States, Canada, and South Korea, has outstripped production.”
Audi E-Tron Reservations Soar To
20,000: Deliveries Delayed Again
@EVAdoptionTweet

34. EVAdoption.com
(9) Solar is the EV “Gateway Drug” > Automakers Should Consider Solar Partnerships
@EVAdoptionTweet

35. "In economics, things
take longer to happen
than you think they will,
and then they happen
faster than
you thought they
could."
Rudi Dornbusch, German Economist

36. EVAdoption.com
Thanks / Q &A
www.evadoption.com
loren@EVAdoption.com