Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

When will electric vehicles cross the chasm into the mainstream in the us? 6.6.19

3,250 views

Published on

Includes background on why consumers are not purchasing EVs, state-by-state sales data for 2018, future EV sales forecast for US and California, results of regression analysis research and key factors that will enable or hinder mass consumer adoption of EVs in the US

Published in: Automotive
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

When will electric vehicles cross the chasm into the mainstream in the us? 6.6.19

  1. 1. When Will EVs “Cross the Chasm” into the Mainstream in the US? Loren McDonald EVAdoption.com Twitter: @EVAdoptionTweet EVAdoption.com
  2. 2. Electric Vehicles Are NOT Just Cars With an Electric Motor … But a shift to an entirely new type of technology product
  3. 3. “Crossing the Chasm” = 16% of New Car Sales (aka Technology Adoption Curve)
  4. 4. 2022 2025 2028 2030
  5. 5. So Where Are We Today?
  6. 6. US Electric Vehicle (BEV + PHEV) Sales Fell Just Short of 2% in 2018
  7. 7. 2018 California EV Sales Reached 7.8% in & 46.8 % of US EV Sales 7.84% of Calif new vehicle sales
  8. 8. EV Sales Are Mostly Happening on the Coasts
  9. 9. So Why Aren’t More Consumers Buying EVs?
  10. 10. 16% of Americans say they are likely to buy an electric vehicle the next time they are in the market for a new or used vehicle. AAA Consumer Survey, May 2019
  11. 11. What holds US consumers back from buying an EV? 1. Not enough range 2. Not enough charging stations 3. EVs too expensive 4. Not enough model variety 5. Charging takes too long
  12. 12. 74% of Americans who are likely to buy an electric vehicle would do so out of concern for the environment. AAA Consumer Survey, May 2019
  13. 13. US State EV Sales Share Ranges from 0.2% to 8% - Why? What causes such significant differences in EV sales across the US states? What causes such significant differences in EV sales across the US states? What causes such significant differences in EV sales across the US states? .22% to 1% 1% to 2% 2% to 8%
  14. 14. New Regression Analysis Research
  15. 15. EVAdoption.com Regression Analysis: State EV Sales Share > 29 Independent Variables Number of EV models available Weighted EV models available per state EV ratio to charging stations EV connections per location ZEV state Incentives - rebates/tax credits HOV lane access Price of gas Cost of electricity (kWh) Percentage of state's electricity from solar Energy consumption per capita Ratio of solar installations to # of households Percent of grid’s electricity from renewable sources Household median income Vehicle miles traveled per capita % with bachelor’s degree Apartment resident share of state population % Asian ethnicity % light trucks purchases Average age of vehicles Median MSRP of cars purchased Average winter temperature Red state/blue state party affiliation Climate change is happening % urban miles driven State green score % take public transportation Monthly car payment as a % of monthly income Number of persons for every Prius - 2010 @EVAdoptionTweet
  16. 16. EVAdoption.com Regression Analysis: The Statically Significant 7 Independent Variables Number of EV models available EV connections per location Price of gas Ratio of solar installations to # of households Percent of grid’s electricity from renewable sources Household median income % light trucks purchases @EVAdoptionTweet
  17. 17. Variable Standardized Coefficients Beta Notes Price of Gas .346 Causal, but unpredictable Ratio of solar installations to # of households .299 Solar is a proxy for eco-consumers who want to “save the planet” % of the grid’s electricity from renewable sources .265 Speaks to the general “green sensibility of the state” Household median income .231 EVs more expensive, many are luxury/performance models # of EV models available .184 More EV models = more sales - duh % light trucks (SUVs, pickups, vans) purchased -.173 No EV pickups yet, more rural states aren’t inclined toward EVs EV charging connections per location .131 Likely driven by Tesla Superchargers which avg 9 stations per location
  18. 18. Forecast: US and California
  19. 19. EV Sales Cross the Chasm in 2028
  20. 20. EV Sales Cross the Chasm in 2022
  21. 21. Key Enablers and Hurdles to Mass Adoption
  22. 22. EVAdoption.com (1) Gas Prices: Consumers Point to $4 Per Gallon of Gas as an EV Tipping Point Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book May 2018 Consumer Survey Gas prices are a huge and unpredictable variable @EVAdoptionTweet
  23. 23. (2) Range: BEV Average Battery Range Will Reach 300 miles in 2023 Range anxiety will all but disappear from the early majority in 3-5 years
  24. 24. EVAdoption.com (3) Affordability: EV Versus ICE Price Differentials Average ~$9,000 PHEV = $6,750 higher – without incentives @EVAdoptionTweet
  25. 25. (3) Affordability: Price Delta With Shared Models Correlates With EV Sales Volume Offering Electric Variants of ICE or Hybrid is a Recipe for Low EV Sales
  26. 26. (3) Affordability: Continuous Declining Battery Prices = Cost Parity ~2026 But will that translate into BEV car prices at parity with ICE vehicles?
  27. 27. EVAdoption.com @EVAdoptionTweet (4) Model Availability: SUV/CUV/Sedan Have 90-120 More ICE Models Than EVs Lack of EV options – including non-luxury and pickups will be a major hurdle
  28. 28. (4) Model Availability: States with Most Models Also Have Highest Sales %
  29. 29. EVAdoption.com (5) Charging Infrastructure: Likely to Keep Pace With EV Sales Due to Aggressive Plans @EVAdoptionTweet
  30. 30. EVAdoption.com (5) Charging Infrastructure: Renters Are ~40% of Households - Huge Charging Challenge @EVAdoptionTweet Apartment owners do not feel obligated to be provide “refueling stations”
  31. 31. EVAdoption.com (6) Charging Speed: Super Fast Charging is on the Way @EVAdoptionTweet 300+ mile range + 15-20 minute charging that adds 200 miles will be common in ~4 years
  32. 32. EVAdoption.com (7) Awareness: Advertising Will Not Solve the “What’s An EV?” Challenge @EVAdoptionTweet Marketing vs Advertising: Drive events, EV 101, Social, Influencer Marketing
  33. 33. EVAdoption.com (8) Supply of Battery Packs and Models is a One of the Biggest Hurdles to EV Sales "Demand for the Chevrolet Bolt EV, especially in the United States, Canada, and South Korea, has outstripped production.” Audi E-Tron Reservations Soar To 20,000: Deliveries Delayed Again @EVAdoptionTweet
  34. 34. EVAdoption.com (9) Solar is the EV “Gateway Drug” > Automakers Should Consider Solar Partnerships @EVAdoptionTweet
  35. 35. "In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could." Rudi Dornbusch, German Economist
  36. 36. EVAdoption.com Thanks / Q &A www.evadoption.com loren@EVAdoption.com

×