Global Warming


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Global Warming

  1. 1. Global Warming
  2. 2. Thought of the DayWhat is Ihsan?The Prophet (PBUH) said,That you worship Allah as if you see Him, for ifyou dont see Him then truly He sees you.‘ Hadith Global Warming 2
  3. 3. It’s alright to be confused Global Warming 3
  4. 4. What do scientists know that the rest of us don’t? Global Warming 4
  5. 5. The Earth Systems Global Warming 5
  6. 6. Global Climate System Components Global Warming 6
  7. 7. The Basic QuestionsWhat controls Earth’s temperature?How is climate changing?Is Global Warming due to humans?What will it be like in your lifetime? Global Warming 7
  8. 8. Three ways to change the temperature of a planetChange input a) Solar variabilityChange output b) Earth reflectivity (albedo) c) Greenhouse gas concentrations Global Warming 8
  9. 9. The Greenhouse EffectNatural greenhouse gases make the Earth warm and moderate enough for life (water).The atmosphere absorbs and re- radiates outgoing Earth radiation.Some Greenhouse gases • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Methane (CH4) • Water vapor (H2O) Global Warming 9
  10. 10. Atmospheric Absorption Bands Global Warming 10
  11. 11. The Atmospheric Window • CO2 absorbs outgoing IR radiation and re- radiates back to Earth Global Warming 11
  12. 12. The Story of Planets Mars (~229 million km) Earth (~150 million km) Venus (~108 million km) Global Warming 12
  13. 13. The Story of PlanetsVenus Earth Mars450°C 15°C -55°C (would be -18°C without natural greenhouse effect) Global Warming 13
  14. 14. The Keeling Curve Global Warming 14
  15. 15. The Present CO2 Level• March 2013: 397.34 ppm• March 2012: 394.45 ppm Global Warming 15
  16. 16. How CO2 concentration is measured(left) CO2 Extraction Rack. (middle) Researchers at the lab measure the levels of carbon dioxide and othergreenhouse gases in air sent in weekly from sites that are part of an international air sampling network.(right) locations of stations for flasks collected for CO2Warming 2 isotope measurements. Global and CO 16
  17. 17. Past relationships between atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature• earth climate sensitivity to past variations in atmospheric CO2 by drilling into ice sheets• Ice sheets record past concentrations of atmospheric CO2 by trapping bubbles of ancient air as the ice sheet forms• The figure shows the relationship between CO2 in the atmosphere and surface temperatures over Antarctica spanning the last 150,000 years Global Warming 17
  18. 18. Ice Core containing tiny bubbles of Ancient AirScientists collecting ice core samples in Antarctica. An Antarctic ice core. A slice of Global Warming 18ice core containing tiny bubbles of ancient air.
  19. 19. Ice Core Data from Antarctica going back 800,000 YBP Global Warming 19
  20. 20. WHEN WAS CO2 LAST AT TODAY’S LEVEL, AND WHAT WAS THE WORLD LIKE THEN?• most recent estimates suggest that between 5.2 and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene)• the CO2 atm reached between 330-400 ppm• global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than now• sea levels higher by 10 – 25 meters• implying that global ice volume was much less than today Global Warming 20
  21. 21. Lake sediments, Tree rings and Coral reefs for CO2 concentration records Global Warming 21
  22. 22. Multi-Model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming Global Warming 22
  23. 23. Ice Core Era contains no periods with concentrations of CO2 comparable to those of the next century(left) Atmospheric CO2 conc as observed at Mauna Loa from 1958 to 2008 (black dashedline) and projected under the 6 SRES marker and illustrative scenario (IPCC). (right) CO2 concderived from EPICA and Vostok ice cores. Red bar indicates Mauna Loa measureents. Global Warming 23
  24. 24. Projection of CO2 and Temperature to 2100• projection of the magnitude of future CO2 levels due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use changes• Note that global CO2 levels will be doubled from the pre- Industrial value (~290 ppm) in about 70 years or by ~2075. Global Warming 24
  25. 25. Where CO2 comes from and goes to Global Warming 25
  26. 26. Emissions & Sinks Global Warming 26
  27. 27. Global Warming• Global warming increased emissions of greenhouse gases.• Scientists agree that earths surface has warmed by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past 140 years.• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the earths surface temperature• Increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols have led to relative cooling in some regions, generally over and downwind of heavily industrialized areas Global Warming 27
  28. 28. Kyoto Protocol• The result of negotiations at the third Conference of the Parties (COP-3) in Kyoto, Japan, in December of 1997.• Sets binding greenhouse gas emissions targets for countries that sign and ratify the agreement.The gases covered under the Protocolinclude• carbon dioxide• methane• nitrous oxide• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)• pduorocarbons (PFCs)• sulfur hexafluoride Global Warming 28
  29. 29. Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms1. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)2. Joint Implementation (JI)3. International Carbon Trading (ICT) Global Warming 29
  30. 30. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)• A Kyoto Protocol program that enables industrialized countries to finance emissions avoiding projects in developing countries and receive credit for reductions achieved against their own emissions limitation targets Global Warming 30
  31. 31. Joint Implementation (JI)• Agreements made between two or more nations under the auspices of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) whereby a developed country can receive "emissions reduction units when it helps to finance projects that reduce net emissions in another developed country (including countries with economies in transition) Global Warming 31
  32. 32. Emissions Trading/Carbon Trading• The creation of surplus emission reductions at certain stacks, vents, or similar emissions sources• the use of this surplus to meet or redefine pollution requirements applicable to other emission sources• allows one source to increase emissions when another source reduces them• maintaining an overall constant emission level• Facilities that reduce emissions substantially may "bank" their "credits" or sell them to other industries Global Warming 32
  33. 33. Carbon FootprintTotal amount of carbon dioxide(CO2) and other greenhousegases such as• methane (CH4),• nitrous oxide (N2O),• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),• perfluorocarbons (PFCs),• sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)• emitted directly and indirectly to support human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, livestock raising, and agricultural production Global Warming 33
  34. 34. Ten Signs of a Warming World
  35. 35. Global Warming 35
  36. 36. 1 Air Temperature over Land• Weather stations on land show that average air temperature at the surface is going up.• Consequently, we see an increase in the number of heat wave events and the area affected by drought. Global Warming 36
  37. 37. 2 Air Temperature over Oceans• Thermometers on ships and floating buoys show that air near the oceans surface is getting warmer, increasing its ability to evaporate water.• In turn, we see an increase in heavy precipitation events and flooding on land Global Warming 37
  38. 38. 3 Arctic Sea Ice• Satellite images show that the area covered by sea ice in the Arctic is getting smaller.• Ice-free shipping routes and newly established access to oil resources increase the risk of damage to this sensitive environment, and habitat for marine animals is threatened Global Warming 38
  39. 39. 4 Glaciers• Historical paintings, photographs, and other long-term records show that most mountain glaciers are melting away.• People who depend on water from melting glaciers for their living needs, crops, and livestock are facing potential shortages. Global Warming 39
  40. 40. 5 Global Sea Level• Tide gauges and satellites that measure the distance from their orbit to the oceans surface both show that global sea level is getting higher.• Rising waters threaten ecosystems, freshwater supplies, and human developments along coasts. Global Warming 40
  41. 41. 6 Humidity• Measurements over land and water show increasing humidity, more water vapor in the air.• Air feels stickier when its hot and air Water Vapor conditioners have to July 2002-March 2013 work harder. Global Warming 41
  42. 42. 7 Ocean Heat Content• Temperature sensors on thousands of floats that move through the ocean show an increase in heat energy stored in the top half mile of water.• Warmer ocean water damage coral reefs and change marine ecosystems, disrupting fisheries and people depending on them Global Warming 42
  43. 43. 8 Sea Surface Temperatures• Satellite sensors and thermometers on ships show that temperature of water at the ocean’s surface is rising.• Warmer surface water can increase the destructive potential of tropical cyclones and hurricanes Global Warming 43
  44. 44. 9 Snow• Satellite images show that the area of land covered by snow during spring in the Northern Hemisphere is getting smaller.• Snow is melting earlier, changing when and how much water is available for nature and people. Global Warming 44
  45. 45. 10 Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere• Measurements from satellites and weather balloons show that the lowest layer of the atmosphere—where we live is warming• Greenhouse gases are building up in this layer, trapping heat radiated from Earths surface and raising the planets temperature. Global Warming 45
  46. 46. Climate Models Global Warming 46
  47. 47. Climate of Pakistan Rainfall Distribution Monsoonal ZoneMonsoon (June, July, Aug, Sept) Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) 65% of Annual Rainfall Global Warming 25% of Annual Rainfall 47
  48. 48. Climate of PakistanPakistan is prone to Extreme Weather Events or Disasters,such as• Heavy Rains/River Flooding• Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding• Urban Flooding• Snow-melt Flooding• Cyclones/Coastal FloodingIn Pakistan, more than 70% Extreme Weather Events areassociated with Monsoon SeasonIt is very important to focus on Monsoon Rainfall Changes andWeather patterns of the region Global Warming 48
  49. 49. Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall Shift MONSOON – Rainfall Distribution (1961-1990) Monsoonal Zone 49
  50. 50. Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall Shift MONSOON – Rainfall Distribution (1991-2010) Monsoonal Zone 50
  51. 51. Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall Shift MONSOON – Rainfall Trend (Westward Shift) 51
  52. 52. Earth DayApril 22, 2013 Global Warming 52
  53. 53. Thank You