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Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

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Andreas Fähndrich , Director Business Development of BEONTRA, a Lockheed Martin company, explains how planning and forecasting can help airports more accurately predict passenger numbers and improve their operations management.

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Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

  1. 1. 2014 ACI-NA Annual Conference & Exhibition Solutions Showcase Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth Atlanta, September 9th 2014 Andreas Fähndrich Director Business Development BEONTRA AG
  2. 2. The Hockey Stick Capacity Constraints Impact on Disruptions Page 2 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  3. 3. The Perfect Storm Recently in the Newspaper Two flights were delayed by More than 1,000 passengers waited an hour from 7.30am on Wednesday morning Page 3 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth 15 minutes Another arrival was 20 minutes early
  4. 4. The Perfect Storm Recently in the Newspaper Page 4 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  5. 5. BEONTRA Solution „Realtime Forecasting“ Page 5 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  6. 6. Showcase Realtime Forecasting At 12:00: Prediction for 15:00 Immigration: Normal Ops Flight Arrivals Time Flight Destination Gate Remarks 12:05 KL 1010 London H2 12:15 KL 1673 Barcelona H12 12:30 KL 1603 Rome H5 12:50 KL 1087 Manchester H26 13:15 KL 1843 Vienna H11 13:20 KL 1175 Trondheim H84 13:40 KL 1189 Bogota H23 13:55 KL 1267 Nice H18 14:05 KL 1977 Budapest H23 14:25 KL 1317 Bordeaux H9 14:35 KL 1325 Alesund H41 14:50 KL 1365 Warsaw H8 15:05 KL 0411 Amman H6 15:20 KL 0415 Kuwait H22 15:30 KL 0427 Dubai H11 15:40 KL 0685 Mexico H55 15:55 KL 1115 Aarlanda H9 Page 6 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  7. 7. Showcase Realtime Forecasting At 12:30: INCIDENT BAD WEATHER – Prediction for 16:00 30m waiting times at Immigration Flight Arrivals Flight Departures Time Flight Destination Gate Remarks 12:05 KL 1010 London H2 Delay 12:25 12:15 KL 1673 Barcelona H12 12:30 KL 1603 Rome H5 Delay 12:55 12:50 KL 1087 Manchester H26 13:15 KL 1843 Vienna H11 Delay 13:35 13:20 KL 1175 Trondheim H84 Delay 13:50 13:40 KL 1189 Bogota H23 13:55 KL 1267 Nice H18 Delay 14:30 14:05 KL 1977 Budapest H23 14:25 KL 1317 Bordeaux H9 Delay 14:40 14:35 KL 1325 Alesund H41 Delay 15:00 14:50 KL 1365 Warsaw H8 15:05 KL 0411 Amman H6 15:20 KL 0415 Kuwait H22 15:30 KL 0427 Dubai H11 15:40 KL 0685 Mexico H55 15:55 KL 1115 Aarlanda H9 Time Flight Destination Gate Remarks 12:05 KL 1010 London H2 12:15 KL 1673 Barcelona H12 12:30 KL 1603 Rome H5 12:50 KL 1087 Manchester H26 13:15 KL 1843 Vienna H11 13:20 KL 1175 Trondheim H84 13:40 KL 1189 Bogota H23 13:55 KL 1267 Nice H18 14:05 KL 1977 Budapest H23 14:25 KL 1317 Bordeaux H9 14:35 KL 1325 Alesund H41 14:50 KL 1365 Warsaw H8 15:05 KL 0411 Amman H6 15:20 KL 0415 Kuwait H22 15:30 KL 0427 Dubai H11 15:40 KL 0685 Mexico H55 15:55 KL 1115 Aarlanda H9 Page 7 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  8. 8. BEONTRA iPad App Page 8 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  9. 9. How to accurately predict passengers numbers between the next 30 minutes and the next 30 years? Strategic Planning 3 years+ Tactical Planning next season+ Operations Planning Next days+ Operational Day Prediction today Capacity Planning Demand Forecasting Realtime Forecasting Page 9 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  10. 10. How to accurately predict passengers numbers between the next 30 minutes and the next 30 years? Strategic Planning 3 years+ Tactical Planning next season+ Operations Planning Next days+ Operational Day Prediction today Capacity Planning Demand Forecasting Realtime Forecasting Page 10 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  11. 11. How to accurately predict passengers numbers between the next 30 minutes and the next 30 years? Strategic Planning 3 years+ Tactical Planning next season+ Operations Planning Next days+ Operational Day Prediction today Capacity Planning Demand Forecasting Realtime Forecasting Page 11 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  12. 12. How to accurately predict passengers numbers between the next 30 minutes and the next 30 years? Strategic Planning 3 years+ Tactical Planning next season+ Operations Planning Next days+ Operational Day Prediction today Capacity Planning Demand Forecasting Realtime Forecasting Page 12 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  13. 13. How will your airspace, airfield, terminals and infrastructure cope? Strategic Planning 3 years+ Tactical Planning next season+ Operations Planning Next days+ Operational Day Prediction today Capacity Planning Demand Forecasting Realtime Forecasting Page 13 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  14. 14. How will your airspace, airfield, terminals and infrastructure cope? Strategic Planning 3 years+ Tactical Planning next season+ Operations Planning Next days+ Operational Day Prediction today Shortfall Capacity Planning Demand Forecasting Realtime Forecasting Optimization Potential Page 14 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  15. 15. How will your airspace, airfield, terminals and infrastructure cope? Strategic Planning 3 years+ Tactical Planning next season+ Operations Planning Next days+ Operational Day Prediction today Capacity Planning Demand Forecasting Realtime Forecasting Opt imizat ion Potent ial Short fall Page 15 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  16. 16. Lockheed Martin Global Airports End-to-End Solutions Strategic Planning 3 years+ Tactical Planning next season+ Operations Planning Next days+ Operational Day Prediction today Capacity Planning Demand Forecasting Ressource Management Realtime Forecasting Operations Management Page 16 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth Billing BI Post Operation Staff Planning Master Plan Forecasting Budget Forecasting Retail Planning Route Development Tariff Design CDM Passenger Tracking Airline Allocation Evaluation
  17. 17. What can be achieved with BEONTRA? OPEX Reductions save up to 150,000 USD per 1m passengers per year CAPEX Reductions handle up to 30% more traffic within the same infrastructure by better utilizing the resources Page 17 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth Improved Passenger Experience Improved Commercial Dwell Time bring happy customers as soon as possible to the airside commercial area
  18. 18. Over 50 Airports Worldwide trust in BEONTRA Page 18 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  19. 19. Page 19 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  20. 20. What can be achieved with BEONTRA ? Copenhagen: The Efficient Airport (Skytrax “Best Security” Award 2013)  Reduction in check-in counter demand = 26% ~ 20m EUR CAPEX savings  Security per FTE throughput increase 42% in 3 years ~ 8m EUR OPEX savings p.a. Kasper Dybkjær Hounsgaard, Head of Operational and Business Analysis “Getting 8.5 million passengers through 100 check-in desks and 19 security tracks requires a little more than ordinary planning. Today we have increased the capacity utilization by almost 30%.” Mr. Thomas Hoff Anderson, Director Airport Optimization Page 20 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  21. 21. References AMS: Operational Terminal Prediction “For the increase of passenger satisfaction, better utilization of resources and reduction of operating costs, it is necessary to act instead of react to expected passenger flows. With BEONTRA’s Realtime Forecasting being fed by different stakeholders we are now able to do so.” Sandor Verhoeven Capacity Manager Passenger Services Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Page 21 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth
  22. 22. References BRU: BEONTRA Scenario Planning as Corporate Planning Backbone “Implementing the BEONTRA Scenario Planning Suite across our organization standardizes the planning procedures and diminishes inconsictencies between traffic, revenue and inverstment planning forecasting.” Marc-Andre Gennart CFO Brussels Airport BEONTRA Scenario Planning B st rategic Page 22 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting 09.09.2014 and Managing Passenger Growth Concept Evaluat ion B tact ical Longterm Demand Forecast ing Master Planning, Project Engineering Daily Operations B capacit y B route development Simulation Planning Schedules Business Planning Shif t Planning Stand/Gate Check-in Allocat ion B operat ional Rostering

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