LSS'10: Greg Sterling The Local Social Paradigm Shift


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Opening Keynote: The Local Social Paradigm Shift
Greg Sterling, Search Engine Land & Internet2Go
The local market is on fire, thanks in part to the rise of mobile. It’s also in a state of profound transition. Google is going after local consumers and advertisers with unprecedented focus. Social sites are driving an evolution of the way consumers access and interact with local businesses. And daily deal platforms inject a potentially disruptive element into tried and true local ad models.
The local market has never been more dynamic — or chaotic — for consumers but especially advertisers. We’re in the midst of a “paradigm shift” in local. Greg Sterling will identify critical trends that are shaping the future. He’ll also tell you who he thinks will win and who will lose in Local 2.0.

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LSS'10: Greg Sterling The Local Social Paradigm Shift

  1. 1. Greg Sterling Sterling Market Intelligence/Opus Research November 18, 2010 Me, Here, Now:Me, Here, Now: The Local Paradigm ShiftThe Local Paradigm Shift
  2. 2. ‘Paradigm Shift’ We’re in the midst of a shift—driven by mobile and social media —dramatically changing the way we communicate, navigate relationships as well as the world around us.
  3. 3. Market Noisy, Chaotic, Accelerating • Market has become increasingly “noisy” for advertisers (SMBs, even brands) • Consumers too: information overload, paradox of choice, too many new gadgets • Pace of change is picking up, time accelerating (toward real- time)
  4. 4. Convergence of Trends You Are Here Catalyzed by “internet in your pocket” LocalSocial Mobile
  5. 5. Bridge between Online and Offline 53% of mobile search has local intent 70% of mobile search tasks completed in 1 hour (vs. 1 wk for PC) Source: Microsoft (2010) People finally recognizing connection between internet and offline behavior Power of the “check in” (drive foot traffic to stores)
  6. 6. Mobile Will Dominate—Soon • 5B mobile subscribers • Smartphone penetration 28% US, 37% Spain
  7. 7. Old Simplicity Gone—Forever It Seems • Old days: local media monopolies (YP, newspapers, radio) made life simple for consumers, advertisers • Internet and now mobile have disrupted usage, margins and business models to varying degrees • Disruption accelerating further • Two examples: daily deals, local database
  8. 8. Deals Gone Wild • Groupon: $400M topline this year • LivingSocial: “well over $500M in 2011” • “Come out of nowhere” • More than 120 companies operating in the US in June; dozens in Europe • “Customers not clicks” • Models that push risk out of system for advertiser threaten traditional local ad models
  9. 9. SMBs Prefer Groupon Model (Conceptually)
  10. 10. Local Data Become ‘Commodity’ • Had been a primary source of value • “Free” database of places can now be had from: - CityGrid - Google - Facebook - YPG - Factual - Placecast • Not in Europe—yet
  11. 11. Local Data Become ‘Commodity’ “Two guys in a garage” via APIs can now build competitive local sites/apps (not possible before) Independent developers don’t face same inertia, cost structures or corporate inhibitions Better position to compete for verticals or specialized consumer apps
  12. 12. Online Brands Highly Perishable • Examples: Friendster, MySpace, Digg • Citysearch and now . . . Yelp? • Yelp: - Founded in 2004 - Became leading local brand in US through content and dedicated community - Almost bought by Google for $500M; now facing more direct threat by Google - Movement toward “lists” and “Likes” threatens longer form reviews content
  13. 13. Google: Local-Mobile Juggernaut • Local search • Reviews • Maps • Navigation • Shopping/products • Voice search, visual search • All PC   mobile Google “owns” Android devices
  14. 14. Google “Boost” Automated SEM for SMBs
  15. 15. Facebook Also Has Designs on Local • Facebook has replaced Google as the “it” company • Haven’t totally figured out local strategy - Places - Check-ins (+ Deals) • Perhaps 2+ million SMBs with Pages? - Active vs. presence only - Penetration in some categories high • Compare: Google Places (4M+)
  16. 16. Facebook Largest Mobile Network? • FB: 200 million active (daily) mobile users • Top mobile site/apps • “About 70% of Facebook users are outside US" Source: Nielsen (October, 2010)
  17. 17. Twitter Too • More than 200 million users globally • More than 65 million “tweets” per day • Wants to figure out local - Playing with deals - Wants to offer ad product for SMBs “We’re thinking of a more self-serve process to advertise on Twitter, where a local coffee shop can advertise on the service looking for Twitter users in the area . . .” -- Biz Stone, Twitter co-founder
  18. 18. Rise of the Local Ad Network • About 8 or 9 bona fide local ad networks (many in mobile) that help monetize local impressions/searches • High eCPMs • Some YPs now involved (APIs, etc), but should have been the network themselves
  19. 19. Explosion of User-Generated Content • User-generated content has exploded • Whole businesses built around reliance on freelancers • Demand Media: IPO • Associated content bought by Yahoo for $100M
  20. 20. Traditional Publishers Squeezed • Traditional local media publishers need to use G, FB, TW for distribution/exposure • But G, FB, TW also trying to be marketplaces that make traditional less necessary • Sales channel/customer service (“hand holding”) never goes out of style • Local advertisers have more options, more confused than ever • Outlook for consumer usage less certain
  21. 21. Traditional Publishers: TAC 69% of IYP traffic in US not owned and operated
  22. 22. Traditional Publishers: Identity Crisis • A sales channel/agency for our advertisers and onramp to network? - SuperMedia: “the full service digital ad agency for America's local small-to medium-sized businesses” • A trusted consumer brand for local information across platforms? • Answer this: Why should consumers use IYPs or comparable local directories?
  23. 23. Some Quick Summary Thoughts • Google will “own” NAP lookups – the bottom of the funnel • Big brands dominate (but room for “flavor of the month”). Perpetual instability • Facebook becomes a local powerhouse (risk of poor execution) • Traditional local media struggle to compete against either/both • X-platform strategy required; mobile continues to gain
  24. 24. You Are Here—or Will Be You Are Here LocalSocial Mobile
  25. 25. Greg Sterling greg.sterling@gmail. com Follow or Contact Me