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02 alex polfiet - zero emission solutions en

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02 alex polfiet - zero emission solutions en

  1. 1. De Belgian market:what are the possibilitiesfor further growth?
  2. 2. Installed Capacity Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  3. 3. Global Solar List 1. Germany 16 GWp 2. Spain 4 GWp Global PV-market 2009 3. Japan 3 GWp 4. China 2 GWp South-­‐Korea   5. USA 1.8 GWp China   6. Italy 1.5 GWp United  States   7. Czech Rep. 1,4 GWp Japan   8. Belgium 0,8 GWp Rest  of  the  EU   9. India 10. South-Korea France   Belgium   Czech  Republic   Italy   Rest  of  the  world   Germany  Belgium in the world Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  4. 4. Flanders 700 MWp Brussels 5,1 MWp Wallonia 140 MWp Total 845,1 MWpFlanders (preliminary) top Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  5. 5. Flanders + 160 MWp Brussels + 4 MWp Wallonia + 84,4 MWpGrowth Capacity 2010 Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  6. 6. Market Segments Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  7. 7. Special market segments - Brussels ! - Wallonia untill 01/08/2013 - Flanders: - Private - Due to tax deductions also attractive after 2011 - Agricultural section - VLIF = 8 % investment support - KMO’s with high electricity costs - For marketing purposes - As risk management strategy !Potential Market Segments Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  8. 8. Minimal growth in electricity costs KMO - Commodity : + 8 €/MWh (CO2) + 8,4 €/MWh (oil -gas) - Transport costs: + 1 % annually - Distribution costs: + 1% annually+ 5 €/MWh in 2014 - GSC-WKC: according to set quota - Federal contribution: lineair average growth - Financing: off-shore: according to planning - Other: + 1 % on average ⇒ Expected growth in 2021 = from 96,5 €/MWh to 151,2 €/MWh = growth of 57 %Expected Electricy Costs Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  9. 9. Policies 2011-2012 Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  10. 10. Flanders • Quicker digression on support from 01/07/2011 on • Expansion > 10 kWp within 24 m = no more GSC’s • 1 MWp = min 50 % local consumption ⇒ Installations > 1 MWp: unprofitable from 01/07/2011 ⇒ Installations> 10 kWp < 1 MWp : profitable until 01/01/2012 ⇒ Installations< 10 kWp: dpending on tax deductionsPV Policies Flanders Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  11. 11. Wallonia • New rules from 01/08/2011 • Sell GSC’s at market value • Minimum garantee 65 € • Less restrictive • 50 % autoconsumption obligation expires • Audit cogénération obligation expires • 250 kWp limitation expires ⇒ With prsent market prices GSC’s maintain potential until 01/08/2014PV Policies Wallonia Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  12. 12. Brussels • Ismaël DaoudPV Policies Brussels Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  13. 13. Comparison three Districts 177 kWp-installationComparison PV profitablity Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  14. 14. Limits to growth Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  15. 15. Brussels • Roof potential: 100 MWp • Problem: buildings usually not owned by the users Flanders • Only sales to private sector will be able to survive • Possible revival of KMO’s if electricty costs rise Wallonia • Until 01/08/2014 no problem • + 400 MWp is realistic • Afterwards dependant on electricy costsGrowth expectancies? Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com
  16. 16. Questions Waverstraat 1, 9310 Aalst - Tel 053/41.66.66 - Fax 053/41.66.00 E-mail: info@zeroemissionsolutions.com

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