I s su e 13 , Vo lu me 5 / Fe br u ar y 3 , 2 012Employment Gaining More and More Momentum The Week Ahead -> The “Keys”Tim McLaughlin - A Super week ahead on the heels of positive employment A banner employment report this morning as employmentdata climbed more than forecast in January and the U.S. Date Economic Release Prediction Lastjobless rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in threeyears, casting some doubt on whether the Federal Reserve 2/5 Super Bowl XLVI: 4 3can wait until 2014 before raising interest rates. GIANTS vs. Patriots The 243,000 increase in payrolls was the largest increase 2/7 IBD/TIPP Eco Optimism 47.1 47.5since April and exceeded all forecasts in a Bloomberg News 2/7 JOLT’s Job Opening - 3161survey, Labor Department figures showed in Washington.The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, the lowest level 2/8 MBA Mortgage Applications - -2.9%since February 2009. 2/9 Initial Jobless Claims 370K - The jump in hiring shows companies are gainingconfidence that the economic expansion will weather the 2/9 Continuing Claims 3525K -European slump and may boost President Barack Obama’s 2/9 BB Consumer Comfort - -44.8re-election bid. The data comes one week after Fed policymakers said the economy wasn’t growing fast enough to 2/9 Wholesale Inventories 0.5% 0.1%push down the jobless rate, prompting them to extend apledge to keep interest rates low for another two years. 2/10 Trade Balance -$48.1B -$47.8BBased on the data this morning, there are conversations ontrading desks that the Fed may not be able to stay on hold 2/10 U of Michigan Confidence 74.0 75.0regarding interest rates as long as they think. 2/10 Monthly Budget Statement -$62.5B -$49.8B The Fed said on January 25th after a two day meetingthat it would keep its benchmark lending rate low “at least” Stock Market and the Super Bowl: Want to know ifuntil late 2014 from a prior target of mid 2013. “We still have the bulls or bears will be rampaging through the marketa long way to go before the labor market can be said to be this year? Popular wisdom says look to the Super Bowl foroperating normally,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the the answer because a seemingly startling correlationHouse Budget Committee in Washington yesterday. appears to exist between who wins the big game and how“Fortunately, over the past few months, indicators of the market will perform in that calendar year.spending, production and job market activity have shownsome signs of improvement.” According to the "Super Bowl Indicator," a triumphant team from the old American Football League (now the The median projection in the Bloomberg survey called for American Football Conference, or AFC) foreshadows aa rise of 140,000 payrolls after an initially reported 200,000 down market, but a winner from the old NFL (now thegain in December. Estimates of the 89 economists ranged National Football Conference, or NFC) means dust offfrom increases of 95,000 to 225,000. Revisions also added a your red cape, because the bulls are coming.total of 60,000 additional jobs to payrolls in November andDecember. The Labor Department revised December’s gain The Super Bowl Indicator has been on the money 35to 203,000. years out of 45 (as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average), which represents a success rate of over 78%. Takeaway: Fantastic news for the economy and forconsumer confidence, particularly home seekers on the FYI: As of this morning, the Dow is up 5.2% for thefence. A slight retracement in rates given this morning’s year, the S&P 500 is up 6.7%, and the NASDAQ is up anews, but rates still at historical lows with 30 year terms in whopping 11.3% YTD.the mid to high 3’s and 10-15 years in the high 2’s/low 3’s. Mortgage Access Corp. d/b/a Weichert Financial Services, Executive Offices, 225 Littleton Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950. 1-800-829-CASH. NMLS Company ID: 2731. Licensed by the NJ Dept of Banking and Insurance. Licensed Mortgage Banker with the State Dept of Banking in NY and CT. Licensed by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking, Mortgage Lender 21042. Licensed Lender in AK, AR, DE, MD, D.C., GA, ME, MI, MN, WI, IA, IL, IN, LA, VT, FL, WV, RI, KY, NC, ID, MS, NE, WY, OK,TN, WA. Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission, License #ML105. Licensed Mortgage Lender in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. License #ML1713, Certificate #43155. Certificate of Authority to transact business in CO, SC. Registered Mortgage Lender in TX. Licensed with the Financial Institutions Division in New Mexico, License # 01297. Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Licensed Mortgage Broker and Lender Ohio. Licensed Loan Broker and Lender Rhode Island. Kansas Licensed Mortgage Company, License #MC.0001229. Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department, License # 8714-MB. Licensed Oregon Mortgage Lender License #ML2528. Weichert Financial Services arranges loans with third-party providers. Equal Housing Lender.