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©LightCastle Partners 2016 Pg 1
COMING OF AGE OR A FALSE DAWN?
Pg 2
6.5
7.1
6.5
6
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.3
6.03
6.29
6.51
6.8
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bangladesh GDP Growth Comparison
WB IMF
HOW DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?
Pg 3
Government
Private
Sector
Growth
Taxation Regime
Logistics and
Infrastructure
Power &
Energy
Policy
Support
Investments
International
Trade
LIGHTCASTLE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
HOW WAS THE INDEX CALCULATED?
Pg 5
Primary Sector
(15%)
Jute, Protein & Frozen
Food, Tea and Agro-
processing
Secondary
Sector (40.6%)
RMG & Textiles,
Pharmaceuticals, Power,
Cement, Edible Oil, Steel
and FMCG
Tertiary Sector
(44.4%)
Financial Institutions,
High End Hotels,
Business Services and
Information Technology
• 54 Samples from C-Suite Members
• Surveys conducted from Dhaka,
Chittagong and Khulna
• Conducted during June-July 2016
Harmonized Business Confidence
Index
Business Confidence =
√[(Situation+200) × (Expectations+200) -
200]
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX 2016
Pg 6
-100 +100
Overwhelmingly
pessimistic
Overwhelmingly
Optimistic
0 +39
COMPONENTS OF THE INDEX
Pg 7
Macro
Economy
Industry
Status
Firm
Performance
Pg 8
STABLE BUT CAUTIOUS OF
UNCERTAINTY
Pg 9
• Stable political Conditions and decent government policy support
• Policy support skewed towards some sectors e.g. RMG and IT
• Interest rate decline but still pricy loans
CAUTIOUS BUT OPTIMISTIC IN MAKING
INVESTMENTS
Pg 10
POSITIVE ABOUT EMPLOYMENT
GENERATION
Pg 11
SECTOR BASED FEEDBACK
Pg 13
Agro-Processing
Technology playing a role. Export potential
and forward market consolidation
opportunity
Cement
Government infrastructure projects
sustaining demand. Low prospects of
export.
Power
Tremendous potential but
But red tapes hindering growth
Financial Institution
Sector recovering but classified loan
and declining interests negatives.
Consumer Durables
MAC population growth will lead to
Higher demand.
ITES
Prospects high and augmented by
Government policies.
SECTOR BASED FEEDBACK
Pg 14
FMCG
Demand growing but ‘last mile
logistics’ and focus on BOP market
key to future growth.
High-end Hotels
Cyclical in nature with bulk coming from
Business travel. Recent troubles after
terrorist attacks.
Pharmaceutical
Growth in domestic market to be
stable. But export can open new doors
for growth
Real Estate
Sector still recovering through price
Corrections. Lower interest rates to
Spur demand..
Leather
Vertical integration and rising costs of
Competitor.
RMG
Moving to high end products key to
growth. Competitors’ products
getting pricier.
CHALLENGES HINDERING PROGRESS
Pg 16
SALIENT ONES INCLUDE
Pg 17
POSITIVE ABOUT EMPLOYMENT
GENERATION
Pg 18
FUTURE DRIVERS OF GROWTH
Pg 19
©LightCastle Partners 2016
READY CONTENTS
Pg 20
MANTRA FOR PROGRESS
Pg 21
• Prioritizing political stability and security
• Facilitating foreign investments in the manufacturing sector
• Incentivizing for export once domestic demand is met
• Increasing rewards and recognition in tax payment
• Connecting academic research to commercial application
THANK YOU!
Pg 22

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LightCastle Business Confidence Index 2016 Findings

  • 2. COMING OF AGE OR A FALSE DAWN? Pg 2 6.5 7.1 6.5 6 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.03 6.29 6.51 6.8 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Bangladesh GDP Growth Comparison WB IMF
  • 3. HOW DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE? Pg 3 Government Private Sector Growth Taxation Regime Logistics and Infrastructure Power & Energy Policy Support Investments International Trade
  • 5. HOW WAS THE INDEX CALCULATED? Pg 5 Primary Sector (15%) Jute, Protein & Frozen Food, Tea and Agro- processing Secondary Sector (40.6%) RMG & Textiles, Pharmaceuticals, Power, Cement, Edible Oil, Steel and FMCG Tertiary Sector (44.4%) Financial Institutions, High End Hotels, Business Services and Information Technology • 54 Samples from C-Suite Members • Surveys conducted from Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna • Conducted during June-July 2016 Harmonized Business Confidence Index Business Confidence = √[(Situation+200) × (Expectations+200) - 200]
  • 6. BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX 2016 Pg 6 -100 +100 Overwhelmingly pessimistic Overwhelmingly Optimistic 0 +39
  • 7. COMPONENTS OF THE INDEX Pg 7 Macro Economy Industry Status Firm Performance
  • 9. STABLE BUT CAUTIOUS OF UNCERTAINTY Pg 9 • Stable political Conditions and decent government policy support • Policy support skewed towards some sectors e.g. RMG and IT • Interest rate decline but still pricy loans
  • 10. CAUTIOUS BUT OPTIMISTIC IN MAKING INVESTMENTS Pg 10
  • 12.
  • 13. SECTOR BASED FEEDBACK Pg 13 Agro-Processing Technology playing a role. Export potential and forward market consolidation opportunity Cement Government infrastructure projects sustaining demand. Low prospects of export. Power Tremendous potential but But red tapes hindering growth Financial Institution Sector recovering but classified loan and declining interests negatives. Consumer Durables MAC population growth will lead to Higher demand. ITES Prospects high and augmented by Government policies.
  • 14. SECTOR BASED FEEDBACK Pg 14 FMCG Demand growing but ‘last mile logistics’ and focus on BOP market key to future growth. High-end Hotels Cyclical in nature with bulk coming from Business travel. Recent troubles after terrorist attacks. Pharmaceutical Growth in domestic market to be stable. But export can open new doors for growth Real Estate Sector still recovering through price Corrections. Lower interest rates to Spur demand.. Leather Vertical integration and rising costs of Competitor. RMG Moving to high end products key to growth. Competitors’ products getting pricier.
  • 15.
  • 19. FUTURE DRIVERS OF GROWTH Pg 19
  • 21. MANTRA FOR PROGRESS Pg 21 • Prioritizing political stability and security • Facilitating foreign investments in the manufacturing sector • Incentivizing for export once domestic demand is met • Increasing rewards and recognition in tax payment • Connecting academic research to commercial application