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Journal Articles Are Not
the Only Fruit:
Registered Reports
John Tyson-Carr
HLJTYSON@Liverpool.ac.uk
Summary
1. The Average Publication Process
2. The Reproducibility Crisis
3. What is a Registered Report?
4. Why Registered Reports?
5. An Example
6. Misconceptions, Tips and Career
Implications 2
1. The Average Publication Process
The current status quo for scientific research
3
The Average Publication Process
4
1 3 5
6
4
2
Data Collection Submit Manuscript Produce Final Manuscript
Prepare Manuscript Editor Decision &
Standard Peer Review
Process
Publication
“ Are there flaws in the
standard publication
process?
5
2. The Reproducibility Crisis
Is most research false?
6
The Reproducibility Crisis
▪ Why Most Published Research Findings are False
(Ioannidis, 2005)
▪ Is Most Published Research Wrong (Veritasium,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42QuXLucH3Q)
▪ Reproducibility Project - Open Science Collaboration (2015)
▫ One-hundred psychology studies were replicated
▫ Original studies had 97% with p < .05
▫ Replicated studies had 36% with p < .05
7
Significance of results
between original and
replicated study is often
vastly different.
Figure from Open Science
Collaboration (2015)
8
The Reproducibility Crisis
9
Is there a
reproducibility
crisis?
Figure from
Baker (2016)
10
The Four
Horsemen of the
Irreproducibility
Crisis (Bishop,
2019)
Horse 1 - Publication Bias
▪ Non-significant results
often seen as “failed
experiments”
▪ Less likely to be written
up, less likely to be
accepted by journals
11
Horse 2 – Low Statistical
Power
▪ Reduced chance of
detecting true effects
▪ Reduced chance that
observed effect is a true
effect
▪ Median power in
neuroscience estimated
to be between 8% and
31% (Button et al., 2013) 12
True
Effect
1.2
Study 1
1
Study 2
1.2
Study 3
1.6
20% Power
Horse 3 – P-Hacking
▪ With enough flexibility in
analysis procedures, you
can make anything
statistically significant
▪ The 2012 IG Nobel Prize –
Observing “meaningful”
brain activity in a dead
salmon
13
Horse 4 – HARKing
▪ Hypothesising After
Results Known
▪ We construct theories to
match the data
▪ Likely to introduce type 1
errors into theories
▪ Figure from Munafo et al.
(2017)
14
3. What is a Registered Report
An alternative to standard journal articles
15
What is a Registered Report?
▪ Peer review follows not only writing up of results, but also
preceding the data collection
▪ The research process, including collection and analysis, is
declared in its entirety before collection begins
16
What is a Registered Report?
The Two-Stage Process
▪ The usual editorial triage
▪ In stage 1, the proposed
research is assessed
▪ Following in-principle
acceptance (IPA), the
extent to which you did
what you said you were
going to do is assessed
17
Stage 1
Title, Abstract, Introduction, Methods (including
proposed analyses) & Pilot Data (optional)
Reviewers assess:
▪ Scientific validity of question
▪ Logic, rationale, and plausibility of hypotheses
▪ Soundness and feasibility of methodology and
analysis pipeline (including statistical power analysis
where appropriate)
▪ Whether detail allows replication of procedures and
analysis
▪ Whether outcome-neutral tests have been specified
sufficiently to test hypotheses, including positive
controls and quality checks
What is a Registered Report?
The Two-Stage Process
Stage 2
Largely resembles a standard manuscript
Reviewers assess:
▪ Whether the data are able to test hypotheses by
satisfying approved outcome-neutral conditions
▪ Whether introduction, rationale and hypotheses are
same as approved from stage 1
▪ Whether authors adhered to registered reports
guidelines
▪ Whether any unregistered, post hoc analyses are
justified, methodologically sound and informative
▪ Whether conclusions are justified given the data
18
“ Please note that
editorial decisions will
not be based on the
perceived
importance, novelty,
or clarity of the
results.
19
What is a Registered Report?
Other Considerations
▪ Everything needs to be in place prior to stage 1 (ethics,
resources, etc.)
▪ Anticipated timelines following IPA will be expected
▪ All data and codes must be made publicly available (for e.g., on
Open Science Framework), at least in most journals that offer RR
format.
▪ If you withdraw after IPA, summary of the pre-registered study
will still be made publicly available
▪ Can include section containing already collected and analysed
pilot data
▪ Secondary analysis of data is also allowed
20
What are
you signing
up for?
A commitment to carry out theory driven
research in a statistically rigorous way 21
4. Why Registered Reports?
Are they the answer?
22
Why Registered Reports?
Fighting the Four Horsemen
Publication Bias
Published regardless of
results
Low Statistical Power
Power analysis
declared in advance
P-Hacking
Declaring all analyses in
advance, and the
parameters for those
analyses, stops us from
torturing the data
HARKing
Hypotheses declared in
advance
23
Why Registered Reports?
Fighting Bias
A study by Scheel at al. (2021)
revealed:
▪ 4% of standard reports failed
to confirm hypothesis
▪ 56% of registered reports
failed to confirm hypothesis
Figure from Scheel et al. (2021)
24
Why Registered Reports?
Fighting Computational Irreproducibility
A study by Hardwicke at al.
(2018) revealed that journals
that encourage public code
result in greater
computational reproducibility
Figure from Hardwicke at al.
(2018)
25
Why Registered Reports?
Fighting Poor Study Quality
A study by Soderberg at al. (2018)
required that 353 scientists rate
RRs and non-RRs on 19
characteristics such as novelty,
importance and rigour
RRs numerically outperformed non-
RRs on every criterion, whilst being
statistically indistinguishable in
terms of novelty and creativity
Figure from Soderberg et al. (2018)
26
5. An Example
Cortex Stage 1 Experience
27
An Example
▪ Currently at the end of the
first round of reviewer
comments for stage 1
▪ Secondary analysis of data
28
An Example
▪ Our previous work revealed,
using modern techniques, a
novel brain response to
symmetry (Tyson-Carr et al.,
2021)
▪ With an idea of what this brain
response represents, we
formulated a set of hypotheses
to test
29
An Example
▪ During this project, a catalogue
of data was being compiled
comprising data from ~2215
participants (Makin et al., under
review; https://osf.io/2sncj/)
▪ Rather than design an
experiment to test our
hypotheses, we selected a
subset of eligible data from this
repository to reanalyse
30
An Example
▪ With the hypotheses formed, we
produced an analysis pipeline that
tested the hypotheses, including for
each hypothesis:
▫ Inclusion criteria
▫ Proposed analyses and
parameters
▫ Power analyses (with alpha of
.02 and 90%, as per journal
guidelines)
▪ Since we cannot analyse the data
until IPA, we used a set of already
analysed data to form “pilot data”
31
32
Decision Trees
Exhaustive Criteria
to Remove
Researcher
Degrees of
Freedom
PCA to identify
number of brain
sources
If ≥ 2, fit two
sources in visual
cortex
PCA to identify
remaining brain
sources
If ≥ 1, fit further
sources
sequentially
If == 0, finalise
model
If residual variance <
40%, export model
and include data
If residual variance
≥ 40%, exclude
data
If < 2, exclude
data
An Example
Reviewer Comments
▪ General suggestions for improvements to
statistical analyses
▪ Improved ways of illustrating data
▪ More detail about the analysis procedures
▪ Suggestions to remove researcher degrees of
freedom following IPA
▪ These comments will differ to stage 1 registered
reports which are not secondary analyses 33
6. Misconceptions, Tips and
Career Implications
Some practical considerations
34
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
The Misconceptions
Some misconceptions outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022)
Misconception
RRs hamper exploratory research
Reality
Exploratory analysis section in stage 2 report is permitted
35
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
The Misconceptions
Some misconceptions outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022)
Misconception
RRs can be easily gamed by “post-registering”
Reality
Must certify that no data collection has taken place, and
editors/reviewers usually ask for at least some minor changes
to procedure 36
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
The Misconceptions
Some misconceptions outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022)
Misconception
Fixed plans that you define cannot be changed
Reality
Editors and reviewers can be consulted if changes need to be
made to registered protocol
37
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
The Misconceptions
Some misconceptions outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022)
Misconception
RRs slow the pace of research
Reality
Rejection rate is much lower for RRs (10% at Cortex for stage 1,
0% at stage 2), and rejections in standard articles are common
due to unattractive results or an unfixable flaw (something
which would likely be fixed if protocol was peer-reviewed)
38
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
Some Tips
Some tips outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022)
Tip
Assess feasibility and validity of analyses beforehand to
minimise deviations following IPA
39
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
Some Tips
Some tips outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022)
Tip
Pilot studies are highly recommended
40
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
Some Tips
Some tips outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022)
Tip
If you are struggling to define an exhaustive protocol for all
contingencies, consider using blinded analysis (see Dutilh et
al., 2017)
41
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
Some Tips
Some personal tips.
Tip
Do not underestimate the specificity required
42
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
Some Tips
Some personal tips.
Tip
For early career researchers, use it as an opportunity to
remove that level of abstraction behind the techniques we
usually use
43
Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications
Career Implications
▪ Short-term pain, long-term gain
▫ GitHub
▫ Repositories
▫ Data availability principles
▫ Code availability
▪ Our careers ultimately benefit from improved science
▪ Kicking away the ladder?
44
Start
Somewhere
Open science practices do not have to be
all or nothing – a step in the right direction
is a step nonetheless 45
46
THANKS!
Any questions?
You can find me at:
▪ LinkedIn – John Tyson-Carr
▪ HLJTYSON@liverpool.ac.uk

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Registered Reports: An Alternative to Standard Publication

  • 1. Journal Articles Are Not the Only Fruit: Registered Reports John Tyson-Carr HLJTYSON@Liverpool.ac.uk
  • 2. Summary 1. The Average Publication Process 2. The Reproducibility Crisis 3. What is a Registered Report? 4. Why Registered Reports? 5. An Example 6. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications 2
  • 3. 1. The Average Publication Process The current status quo for scientific research 3
  • 4. The Average Publication Process 4 1 3 5 6 4 2 Data Collection Submit Manuscript Produce Final Manuscript Prepare Manuscript Editor Decision & Standard Peer Review Process Publication
  • 5. “ Are there flaws in the standard publication process? 5
  • 6. 2. The Reproducibility Crisis Is most research false? 6
  • 7. The Reproducibility Crisis ▪ Why Most Published Research Findings are False (Ioannidis, 2005) ▪ Is Most Published Research Wrong (Veritasium, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42QuXLucH3Q) ▪ Reproducibility Project - Open Science Collaboration (2015) ▫ One-hundred psychology studies were replicated ▫ Original studies had 97% with p < .05 ▫ Replicated studies had 36% with p < .05 7
  • 8. Significance of results between original and replicated study is often vastly different. Figure from Open Science Collaboration (2015) 8 The Reproducibility Crisis
  • 10. 10 The Four Horsemen of the Irreproducibility Crisis (Bishop, 2019)
  • 11. Horse 1 - Publication Bias ▪ Non-significant results often seen as “failed experiments” ▪ Less likely to be written up, less likely to be accepted by journals 11
  • 12. Horse 2 – Low Statistical Power ▪ Reduced chance of detecting true effects ▪ Reduced chance that observed effect is a true effect ▪ Median power in neuroscience estimated to be between 8% and 31% (Button et al., 2013) 12 True Effect 1.2 Study 1 1 Study 2 1.2 Study 3 1.6 20% Power
  • 13. Horse 3 – P-Hacking ▪ With enough flexibility in analysis procedures, you can make anything statistically significant ▪ The 2012 IG Nobel Prize – Observing “meaningful” brain activity in a dead salmon 13
  • 14. Horse 4 – HARKing ▪ Hypothesising After Results Known ▪ We construct theories to match the data ▪ Likely to introduce type 1 errors into theories ▪ Figure from Munafo et al. (2017) 14
  • 15. 3. What is a Registered Report An alternative to standard journal articles 15
  • 16. What is a Registered Report? ▪ Peer review follows not only writing up of results, but also preceding the data collection ▪ The research process, including collection and analysis, is declared in its entirety before collection begins 16
  • 17. What is a Registered Report? The Two-Stage Process ▪ The usual editorial triage ▪ In stage 1, the proposed research is assessed ▪ Following in-principle acceptance (IPA), the extent to which you did what you said you were going to do is assessed 17
  • 18. Stage 1 Title, Abstract, Introduction, Methods (including proposed analyses) & Pilot Data (optional) Reviewers assess: ▪ Scientific validity of question ▪ Logic, rationale, and plausibility of hypotheses ▪ Soundness and feasibility of methodology and analysis pipeline (including statistical power analysis where appropriate) ▪ Whether detail allows replication of procedures and analysis ▪ Whether outcome-neutral tests have been specified sufficiently to test hypotheses, including positive controls and quality checks What is a Registered Report? The Two-Stage Process Stage 2 Largely resembles a standard manuscript Reviewers assess: ▪ Whether the data are able to test hypotheses by satisfying approved outcome-neutral conditions ▪ Whether introduction, rationale and hypotheses are same as approved from stage 1 ▪ Whether authors adhered to registered reports guidelines ▪ Whether any unregistered, post hoc analyses are justified, methodologically sound and informative ▪ Whether conclusions are justified given the data 18
  • 19. “ Please note that editorial decisions will not be based on the perceived importance, novelty, or clarity of the results. 19
  • 20. What is a Registered Report? Other Considerations ▪ Everything needs to be in place prior to stage 1 (ethics, resources, etc.) ▪ Anticipated timelines following IPA will be expected ▪ All data and codes must be made publicly available (for e.g., on Open Science Framework), at least in most journals that offer RR format. ▪ If you withdraw after IPA, summary of the pre-registered study will still be made publicly available ▪ Can include section containing already collected and analysed pilot data ▪ Secondary analysis of data is also allowed 20
  • 21. What are you signing up for? A commitment to carry out theory driven research in a statistically rigorous way 21
  • 22. 4. Why Registered Reports? Are they the answer? 22
  • 23. Why Registered Reports? Fighting the Four Horsemen Publication Bias Published regardless of results Low Statistical Power Power analysis declared in advance P-Hacking Declaring all analyses in advance, and the parameters for those analyses, stops us from torturing the data HARKing Hypotheses declared in advance 23
  • 24. Why Registered Reports? Fighting Bias A study by Scheel at al. (2021) revealed: ▪ 4% of standard reports failed to confirm hypothesis ▪ 56% of registered reports failed to confirm hypothesis Figure from Scheel et al. (2021) 24
  • 25. Why Registered Reports? Fighting Computational Irreproducibility A study by Hardwicke at al. (2018) revealed that journals that encourage public code result in greater computational reproducibility Figure from Hardwicke at al. (2018) 25
  • 26. Why Registered Reports? Fighting Poor Study Quality A study by Soderberg at al. (2018) required that 353 scientists rate RRs and non-RRs on 19 characteristics such as novelty, importance and rigour RRs numerically outperformed non- RRs on every criterion, whilst being statistically indistinguishable in terms of novelty and creativity Figure from Soderberg et al. (2018) 26
  • 27. 5. An Example Cortex Stage 1 Experience 27
  • 28. An Example ▪ Currently at the end of the first round of reviewer comments for stage 1 ▪ Secondary analysis of data 28
  • 29. An Example ▪ Our previous work revealed, using modern techniques, a novel brain response to symmetry (Tyson-Carr et al., 2021) ▪ With an idea of what this brain response represents, we formulated a set of hypotheses to test 29
  • 30. An Example ▪ During this project, a catalogue of data was being compiled comprising data from ~2215 participants (Makin et al., under review; https://osf.io/2sncj/) ▪ Rather than design an experiment to test our hypotheses, we selected a subset of eligible data from this repository to reanalyse 30
  • 31. An Example ▪ With the hypotheses formed, we produced an analysis pipeline that tested the hypotheses, including for each hypothesis: ▫ Inclusion criteria ▫ Proposed analyses and parameters ▫ Power analyses (with alpha of .02 and 90%, as per journal guidelines) ▪ Since we cannot analyse the data until IPA, we used a set of already analysed data to form “pilot data” 31
  • 32. 32 Decision Trees Exhaustive Criteria to Remove Researcher Degrees of Freedom PCA to identify number of brain sources If ≥ 2, fit two sources in visual cortex PCA to identify remaining brain sources If ≥ 1, fit further sources sequentially If == 0, finalise model If residual variance < 40%, export model and include data If residual variance ≥ 40%, exclude data If < 2, exclude data
  • 33. An Example Reviewer Comments ▪ General suggestions for improvements to statistical analyses ▪ Improved ways of illustrating data ▪ More detail about the analysis procedures ▪ Suggestions to remove researcher degrees of freedom following IPA ▪ These comments will differ to stage 1 registered reports which are not secondary analyses 33
  • 34. 6. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications Some practical considerations 34
  • 35. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications The Misconceptions Some misconceptions outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022) Misconception RRs hamper exploratory research Reality Exploratory analysis section in stage 2 report is permitted 35
  • 36. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications The Misconceptions Some misconceptions outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022) Misconception RRs can be easily gamed by “post-registering” Reality Must certify that no data collection has taken place, and editors/reviewers usually ask for at least some minor changes to procedure 36
  • 37. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications The Misconceptions Some misconceptions outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022) Misconception Fixed plans that you define cannot be changed Reality Editors and reviewers can be consulted if changes need to be made to registered protocol 37
  • 38. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications The Misconceptions Some misconceptions outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022) Misconception RRs slow the pace of research Reality Rejection rate is much lower for RRs (10% at Cortex for stage 1, 0% at stage 2), and rejections in standard articles are common due to unattractive results or an unfixable flaw (something which would likely be fixed if protocol was peer-reviewed) 38
  • 39. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications Some Tips Some tips outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022) Tip Assess feasibility and validity of analyses beforehand to minimise deviations following IPA 39
  • 40. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications Some Tips Some tips outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022) Tip Pilot studies are highly recommended 40
  • 41. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications Some Tips Some tips outlined by Chambers & Tzavella (2022) Tip If you are struggling to define an exhaustive protocol for all contingencies, consider using blinded analysis (see Dutilh et al., 2017) 41
  • 42. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications Some Tips Some personal tips. Tip Do not underestimate the specificity required 42
  • 43. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications Some Tips Some personal tips. Tip For early career researchers, use it as an opportunity to remove that level of abstraction behind the techniques we usually use 43
  • 44. Misconceptions, Tips and Career Implications Career Implications ▪ Short-term pain, long-term gain ▫ GitHub ▫ Repositories ▫ Data availability principles ▫ Code availability ▪ Our careers ultimately benefit from improved science ▪ Kicking away the ladder? 44
  • 45. Start Somewhere Open science practices do not have to be all or nothing – a step in the right direction is a step nonetheless 45
  • 46. 46 THANKS! Any questions? You can find me at: ▪ LinkedIn – John Tyson-Carr ▪ HLJTYSON@liverpool.ac.uk

Editor's Notes

  1. Let’s say we run a study and the true effect is 1.2. If the experiment only has 20% power, then we will only detect the effect 20% of the time. What may happen is that because we have variations in sampling and measurements, we may sometimes get an effect size that is smaller or larger than this true effect of 1.2. If we run this underpowered study 3 times and get an effect size of 1, 1.2 and 1.6, the small sample size would mean the effect of 1 or 1.2 would not be statistically significant, whereas an effect of 1.6 would be significant. This paper would get published and thus, overestimate the effect size. The chances are small of replicating this effect in the future if we run the experiment again.