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Rethinking the energy system: The potential of distributed energy The Case of Germany 
Alexander Ochs 
Camino a la COP 20|...
Overview 
1. 
the trends | Germany’s energy transition 
2. 
the enablers | Vision, policies, governance 
3. 
the impacts |...
1. the trends Germany’s Energy Transition
Energy efficiency 
0 
0.2 
0.4 
0.6 
0.8 
1 
1.2 
1.4 
1.6 
1.8 
2 
1971 
1973 
1975 
1977 
1979 
1981 
1983 
1985 
1987 
...
Renewables share in electricity mix 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
70 
1990 
1991 
1992 
1993 
1994 
1995 
1996 
1997 
1998 
...
Renewables share in electricity mix 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
70 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
9 
10 
11 
12 
13 
14 
15 
16 ...
0 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
350 
1990 
1994 
1998 
2002 
2006 
2010 
Billion kWh 
Coal 
Nuclear 
RE 
Natural gas 
Gene...
Annual RE additions, Germany 
Source: EnergyMap
-100.00 
0.00 
100.00 
200.00 
300.00 
400.00 
500.00 
600.00 
700.00 
Hardcoal 
Soft coal 
Mineral oil 
Gas 
Petroleum 
g...
Total Solar PV Capacity Global Leaders, 2013 
Source: REN21 2011 
Source: REN21
Map credit: NREL
2. the enablers Vision & Goals Policies & Measures Effective Governance & Administration
Policies & Instruments: Emissions Trading
3. the impacts Busted Myths | Changed Paradigms
Centralized vs. Distributed Power 1990 - 2014 
Source: EnergyMap 
0 
5000000 
10000000 
15000000 
20000000 
25000000 
KW
0 
5 
10 
15 
20 
25 
30 
35 
40 
2001 
2002 
2003 
2004 
2005 
2006 
2007 
2008 
2009 
2010 
2011 
2012 
US cents per kil...
Germany to other EU Countries 
Internation Eletricity Tariffs Comparisment of private Households 2013 of an anual Usage of...
GHG Emissions, Electricity Sector 
Source: EEA
Air & Water quality 1990 - 2014 
Emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants 
Amonia gas 
Nitrous oxide 
Dust 
Dust (PM10)...
0 
10000 
20000 
30000 
40000 
50000 
1990 
1992 
1994 
1996 
1998 
2000 
2002 
2004 
2006 
2008 
2010 
2012 
GDP per Capi...
Export surplus 
Export 
Import 
Import, Export and Export surplus, 1991-2012 
Development of External Trade
Numbers of patent application in renewable Energy sector 
in Germany 2005-2013 
Total of RE 
PV 
Wind energy 
Geothermal, ...
Impacts Yet to Come 
• 
Likely “real” electricity price development 
• 
Job prognoses
Siemens 
Revenue of Siemens AG of 2008/2009 till 2012/2013 in Million Euro
0 
200 
400 
600 
800 
1000 
1200 
1400 
1600 
2003 
2004 
2005 
2006 
2007 
2008 
2009 
2010 
2011 
Employees
Founded 1988 
Revenue: 
•2011: 122 Mio Euro 
•2012: 200 Mio Euro 
•2013: 234 Mio. Euro
Privat Sector 
Source: BWK Bd. 64
Case study 
Photovoltaikanlage in Berlin-Zehlendorf 
by 0% 
by 20% 
by 40% 
own consumption 
Lifetime Income of FiT 
14.71...
Forecast of electricity landscape 
Source: ET
4. the lessons Key Take-Aways
• 
Energy transition globally a necessity 
• 
Energiewende produced enormous environmental, economic & social benefits 
• ...
thank you! www.worldwatch.org aochs@worldwatch.org
the future New Challenges | New Ideas
Technology/Market Challenges 
• 
The future grid How does it look like and what are the necessary investments? Who runs th...
Ideas 
Portfolio of policies which provides ambitious and continuously updated goals and keep being reliable. 
These inclu...
Impact of insolvent Solarbranche 
Source: Ec Pocketbook 
Solarthermal Power 
Investment (incl Export) 
Maintenance and Ser...
Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.
Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.
Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.
Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.
Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.
Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.
Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.
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Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.

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Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.
Presentado por Alexander Ochs, Director de Programa de Clima y Energía - Worldwatch Institute.

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Repensando el sistema energético: El potencial de la energía distribuida - el caso de Alemania.

  1. 1. Rethinking the energy system: The potential of distributed energy The Case of Germany Alexander Ochs Camino a la COP 20|Lima 15 September
  2. 2. Overview 1. the trends | Germany’s energy transition 2. the enablers | Vision, policies, governance 3. the impacts | Busted myths, changed paradigms 4. the lessons | Key take-aways
  3. 3. 1. the trends Germany’s Energy Transition
  4. 4. Energy efficiency 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Tons of Oil Equivalent per USD 1,000 GDP US Germany EU © Worldwatch Source: World Bank
  5. 5. Renewables share in electricity mix 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Global Germany © Worldwatch Source 1990-2011: EIA 2011-2012: EC Pocketbook
  6. 6. Renewables share in electricity mix 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 % Germany USA EU Peru © Worldwatch Source 1990-2011: EIA 2011-2012: EC Pocketbook, ClimateScope, EIA
  7. 7. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Billion kWh Coal Nuclear RE Natural gas Generation trends in Germany © Worldwatch Source: World Bank Oil
  8. 8. Annual RE additions, Germany Source: EnergyMap
  9. 9. -100.00 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 Hardcoal Soft coal Mineral oil Gas Petroleum gas Nuclear Energy RE Hybrid, Wind, Photovoltaik Biomass and bio. Waste Growth Rate (%) © Worldwatch Source: AGEB Growth of Technology Germany 2000-2013
  10. 10. Total Solar PV Capacity Global Leaders, 2013 Source: REN21 2011 Source: REN21
  11. 11. Map credit: NREL
  12. 12. 2. the enablers Vision & Goals Policies & Measures Effective Governance & Administration
  13. 13. Policies & Instruments: Emissions Trading
  14. 14. 3. the impacts Busted Myths | Changed Paradigms
  15. 15. Centralized vs. Distributed Power 1990 - 2014 Source: EnergyMap 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 KW
  16. 16. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US cents per kilowatt-hour Germany Germany Electricity Tariff Trends In Germany from 2007-2013 Development of the Electricity Tariff Private Household Industry Incl. Tax
  17. 17. Germany to other EU Countries Internation Eletricity Tariffs Comparisment of private Households 2013 of an anual Usage of 1000 to 2500kwH UK Slowenia Italy Malta Finnland Sweden Portugal Czech Rep. Austria Belgium Spain Cyprus Norway Ireland Germany Denmark
  18. 18. GHG Emissions, Electricity Sector Source: EEA
  19. 19. Air & Water quality 1990 - 2014 Emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants Amonia gas Nitrous oxide Dust Dust (PM10) Dust (PM2,5) NMVOC Sulphur dioxide Carbon monooxide
  20. 20. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 GDP per Capita US$ Source: Worldbank
  21. 21. Export surplus Export Import Import, Export and Export surplus, 1991-2012 Development of External Trade
  22. 22. Numbers of patent application in renewable Energy sector in Germany 2005-2013 Total of RE PV Wind energy Geothermal, Biogas, other sources Hybrid
  23. 23. Impacts Yet to Come • Likely “real” electricity price development • Job prognoses
  24. 24. Siemens Revenue of Siemens AG of 2008/2009 till 2012/2013 in Million Euro
  25. 25. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Employees
  26. 26. Founded 1988 Revenue: •2011: 122 Mio Euro •2012: 200 Mio Euro •2013: 234 Mio. Euro
  27. 27. Privat Sector Source: BWK Bd. 64
  28. 28. Case study Photovoltaikanlage in Berlin-Zehlendorf by 0% by 20% by 40% own consumption Lifetime Income of FiT 14.710€ 11.776€ 8.822€ Lifetime Savings through own consumption 0€ 8.973€ 17.920€ Overall Lifetime income (a year) 14.710€ (712€) 20.749€ (1.004€) 26.743€ (1.294€) Lifetime cost 12.562€ Lifetime Surplus (a year) 2.148€ (104€) 8.186€ (396€) 14.180€ (686€) Rate of Return 2,26% p.a. 6,77% p.a. 10,29% p.a. Source: PVSolarstrom
  29. 29. Forecast of electricity landscape Source: ET
  30. 30. 4. the lessons Key Take-Aways
  31. 31. • Energy transition globally a necessity • Energiewende produced enormous environmental, economic & social benefits • Paradigm change is underway • Winners and losers; policy-makers need to set market framework; corporations decide how to play • Corporations are increasingly seeing opps, but need supporting policies • Political and private sector decision-making should go hand in hand: stakeholder dialogues • Integrated assessments/roadmaps: Technical, socio- economic, financial, political analysis necessary
  32. 32. thank you! www.worldwatch.org aochs@worldwatch.org
  33. 33. the future New Challenges | New Ideas
  34. 34. Technology/Market Challenges • The future grid How does it look like and what are the necessary investments? Who runs the grid/back-up in a distributed system? • The need for storage What is are the right support systems for technical options? • More research needed on DSM • New Business model needed How to create the right market incentives and support sustainable energy business models?
  35. 35. Ideas Portfolio of policies which provides ambitious and continuously updated goals and keep being reliable. These includes financial bonuses or rebates and reformation about legislation. For example: bill the building instead of the builder
  36. 36. Impact of insolvent Solarbranche Source: Ec Pocketbook Solarthermal Power Investment (incl Export) Maintenance and Service Preparation of Fuel Total Employment 2013 Total Employment 2012 Wind onshore 100.800 18.200 119.000 104.000 Wind offshore 17.500 1.300 18.800 17.800 Photovoltaik 45.100 10.900 56.000 100.300 Solarthermie 10.100 1.300 11.400 12.200 Solarthermal Power 1.100 1.100 1.400 Hybrid 8.300 4.800 13.100 12.900 Geothermie 14.600 2.700 17.300 16.400 Biogas 17.200 11.800 20.200 49.200 50.400 Biomass 16.100 12.500 23.000 51.600 51.700 Biofuel 6.000 8.600 8.400 25.600 25.400 Sum 230.800 63.500 68.800 363.100 392.500 public funded Research/Administration 8.300 7.300 Sum 371.400 399.800

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