www.ShepherdsPi.com
“What technologies
will be required
over the next 10 years
to protect U.S. interests?”
An Exercise in Prediction
What if w...
“Asymmetric adversary” = an information challenge
(i.e. = intel hard target)
Seeming irrelevance of traditional methods fo...
Pace of Technology Change continued along Moore’s Law
Lines of Business disrupted by Internet and related tech
- Communica...
• Technological Change
• Difficulties in Supporting USG
• Globalization
Future Business Challenges
New Innovation, New Opportunities
Natural User
Interfaces
Social
Media
Augmented
Reality
Big Data
Machine
Learning
Collaboration Cloud & Services
Cyber
Secu...
Ambient Computing
Machine Learning
Two core themes
of advanced R&D
Two core themes
of advanced R&D
The next paradigm shift: Ambient Computing
Important Implications of these two:
Machine learning is the ability for computers to learn
automatically from data to imp...
Machine learning
Ambient computing
Consumer play from these waves:
An era where we move beyond the
personal computer to a ...
Government missed 3 recent paradigm shifts…
badly.
1980 1990 2000 2010
Imagine if the WWII War Department had refused to
use telephones because of a Security argument citing
“Person-in-the-midd...
Source: ComScore Reports, March 2014
Globalization
• Technological Change
• Difficulties in Supporting USG
• Globalization
Policy Challenges
Company data sources; Kleiner-Perkins research
Big Data is being used to
solve problems…
Policy
From three facets
1 2 3
Courtesy of and adapted from David Aucsmith
Legal
Pace of technological
change outpaces
regulatory expertise
1 2 3
Courtesy of and adapted from David Aucsmith
Defense Science Board 2015 Summer Study on Autonomy
…identify the science, engineering, and policy problems
that must be s...
Five Agreed-upon Principles, which
as a set are consistent with established
global norms of free expression and
privacy
Pr...
Brad Smith, December 8, 2013 press release
We’ll be watching as
technologies,
cultures,
governments
collide…
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025
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IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025

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Slides accompanying a talk at Intelligence Community Center of Academic Excellence at the University of Central Florida (UCF), March 2015. Conference theme was "Cyber Security and the Internet," and I spoke on some foreseeable technological, business and policy changes that we can expect to see over the next decade through 2025.

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IC-CAE - Shepherd: The Internet 2015-2025

  1. 1. www.ShepherdsPi.com
  2. 2. “What technologies will be required over the next 10 years to protect U.S. interests?” An Exercise in Prediction What if we had asked that question, 15 years ago?
  3. 3. “Asymmetric adversary” = an information challenge (i.e. = intel hard target) Seeming irrelevance of traditional methods for new targets - Order of battle - State-to-state analysis - “Kremlinological” approaches - Staid, “authoritative Core Knowledge” repositories Challenges of IT during wartime - Stress on systems infrastructure of 2 wars (3?) - Stress on software (link-analysis, SNA, “search”) - Stress on collection capacity (sensor grids, Internet) - Stress on integrity of systems & comms (“cybersecurity”) - Stress on analysts’ – and technologists’ – imagination Some IC Surprises Post-9/11
  4. 4. Pace of Technology Change continued along Moore’s Law Lines of Business disrupted by Internet and related tech - Communications biz ( -> mobile, transnational, price drops) - PC biz (laptops, tablets, smartphones) - Music biz (iTunes, streaming) - Media biz (near-death print, narrowcasting, ad revolution) Increasing Role of USG in shaping/governing Internet policy Private Sector Surprises Post-9/11
  5. 5. • Technological Change • Difficulties in Supporting USG • Globalization Future Business Challenges
  6. 6. New Innovation, New Opportunities
  7. 7. Natural User Interfaces Social Media Augmented Reality Big Data Machine Learning Collaboration Cloud & Services Cyber Security Mobility
  8. 8. Ambient Computing Machine Learning Two core themes of advanced R&D Two core themes of advanced R&D
  9. 9. The next paradigm shift: Ambient Computing
  10. 10. Important Implications of these two: Machine learning is the ability for computers to learn automatically from data to improve their future performance continually. Ambient computing refers to having computing devices, embedded all around in the environment, that can understand people’s intent and operate on their behalf.
  11. 11. Machine learning Ambient computing Consumer play from these waves: An era where we move beyond the personal computer to a world where computing all around us becomes more personal. Government relevance of these waves: • Unique and insanely powerful mission applications • Government workforce and workplace transformed by the Consumer transformation
  12. 12. Government missed 3 recent paradigm shifts… badly. 1980 1990 2000 2010
  13. 13. Imagine if the WWII War Department had refused to use telephones because of a Security argument citing “Person-in-the-middle” re switchboards, or “Endpoint vulnerability” re Party-lines?
  14. 14. Source: ComScore Reports, March 2014 Globalization
  15. 15. • Technological Change • Difficulties in Supporting USG • Globalization Policy Challenges
  16. 16. Company data sources; Kleiner-Perkins research Big Data is being used to solve problems…
  17. 17. Policy From three facets 1 2 3 Courtesy of and adapted from David Aucsmith
  18. 18. Legal Pace of technological change outpaces regulatory expertise 1 2 3 Courtesy of and adapted from David Aucsmith
  19. 19. Defense Science Board 2015 Summer Study on Autonomy …identify the science, engineering, and policy problems that must be solved to permit greater operational use of autonomy across all war-fighting domains… …exploration of the bounds – both technological and social – that limit the use of autonomy across a wide range of military operations….”
  20. 20. Five Agreed-upon Principles, which as a set are consistent with established global norms of free expression and privacy Principles are designed to ensure that governments’ law-enforcement and intelligence efforts are: • Rule-bound • Narrowly tailored • Transparent • Subject to oversight
  21. 21. Brad Smith, December 8, 2013 press release
  22. 22. We’ll be watching as technologies, cultures, governments collide…

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