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2017

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Making sense of the French 2017 presidential election.

2017

  1. 1. 1981 Nationalisation of 40 banks (95% of banking sector) Nationalisation of industry (15% of private sector capital) Minimum wage +10% Family allowances +25% Wealth tax (tax as % of GDP already 40% under VGE) 39-hour week 5th week paid leave Retirement at 60 Price controls Exchange controls Public spending +27.5% Deficit x3 National debt +50% Trade deficit + 100% Devaluations 1981, 1982, 1983 Amnesty for illegal immigrants Naturalisation of all immigrants
  2. 2. Political Culture Social transformation through violent conflict Public opinion tolerant of revolt Inability to share power Strategy set by technocratic elite Campaigns fought on reform, change, break with the past Political party business model Party is a vehicle to get a candidate elected President No party policy document but a visionary project often published in book form prior to election.
  3. 3. Technocracy ENA alumni have filled over one third of French cabinet positions since the 1960s. Presidents Valéry Giscard d'Estaing Jacques Chirac François Hollande Prime Ministers Laurent Fabius Michel Rocard Edouard Balladur Alain Juppé Lionel Jospin Dominique de Villepin Candidates 2017 Emmanuel Macron Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Absolute certitude as to policy that will never be called into question, new information that challenges their beliefs will not be considered. Cartesian rationalism: Form over substance. World-view grounded in Keynesianism. French politicians are champions of political U-turn: appeasement and decree
  4. 4. Reduce deficit by €100bn. Tax cuts Abolish wealth tax Axe 35-hour week Raise retirement age to 65 Immigration quotas Law & order Reform of business policy Deregulation
  5. 5. Stability pact moratorium Universal revenue €750 Consolidated income tax Tax private assets, robots Humanitarian visa Vote for immigrants Vote for prisoners Discrimination police Recognition of Palestine Legalise cannabis
  6. 6. No program [02.02.2017] Reform payroll tax Retirement 60-67 Working week 30 hours + €500 culture voucher at 18 Fund UB from tax revenue EU finance ministry EU investment budget End state of emergency Military operations - UNO
  7. 7. Immigration Law and order National security Withdrawal from euro Referendum on Frexit Reform of business policy Definancialization National industrial strategy Strategic protectionism
  8. 8. Strengths • First mover • Coherence • Public opinion • Constituencies Weaknesses • FN legacy • No allies • Media • Experience Opportunities • Decay of France • Voter fatigue • Brexit effect • Terrorism Threats • Republican Front • EU • Globalists
  9. 9. Conclusion
  • MauricioVasquezBuitrago

    Nov. 12, 2017

Making sense of the French 2017 presidential election.

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