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When will you deliver that?

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ALICon Frankfurt

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When will you deliver that?

  1. 1. WHEN WILL YOU DELIVER THAT? Leonardo Bittencourt Principal Consultant at Ammeon Solutions
  2. 2. Planning Time 0 7 14 20 27 Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6 Planned Completed Paper accepts everything! Data can be gamed!
  3. 3. What is THROUGHPUT? An amount of work, etc. done in a particular period of time. (Source: Cambridge Dictionary) The number of THINGS (stories, defects, tasks, etc) done in a period of time.
  4. 4. Why Throughput? Iteration Thoughput Sprint 2.1 15 Sprint 2.2 24 Sprint 2.3 31 Sprint 2.4 22 Sprint 2.5 24 Sprint 2.6 24 Sprint 3.1 17 Sprint 3.2 6 (Christmas) Sprint 3.3 16 Sprint 3.4 20 Delays Waiting Time Impediments Staff Availability Interruptions Un-recorded work
  5. 5. Linear Regression - Average Forecast Delivery -30 0 30 60 90 120 Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 Iteration 7 120 97 74 51 28 5 -18 Average
  6. 6. Linear Regression The AVERAGE is dangerous !!!! A single number as AVERAGE does not provide enough context for analysis.
  7. 7. Let’s analyse Historical Data 0 1 2 3 4 6 9 12 15 19 21 24 27 30 31 Histogram Throughput Average 21 Median 22.5 Mode 24
  8. 8. Let’s analyse Historical Data 0 1 2 3 4 6 9 12 15 19 21 24 27 30 31 35 Histogram Throughput Average 27 Median 24 Mode 24 Distribution matters !!!
  9. 9. Linear Regression Forecast Delivery 0 35 70 105 140 Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 Iteration 7 Iteration 8 Iteration 9 121 106 91 76 61 46 31 16 1 119 103 86 69 52 36 19 2 113 90 67 44 21 0 Projected (max) Projected Projected (min)
  10. 10. Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo methods vary, but tend to follow a particular pattern: 1. Define a domain of possible inputs 2. Generate inputs randomly from a probability distribution over the domain 3. Perform a deterministic computation on the
 inputs 4. Aggregate the results Source: Wikipedia Brutal force method for forecasting
  11. 11. 12? The best: 2x 6 The worst: 12x 1 What is the probability to finish the game after X rounds? Rounds Combination Probability 1 roll 0 0% 2 rolls 1/6 * 1/6 2.78% 3 rolls (3,3,6), (3,4,5), (3,5,4), (3,4,6), (5,5,2), (4,4,4) … ??? … … … 12 rolls (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1) 100%
  12. 12. SUM OF 3 DICE ROLLS HOW MANY TIMES IT APPEARED 3 (1,1,1) 21 4 70 5 134 6 240 7 370 8 509 9 581 10 586 11 636 12 538 13 476 14 375 15 226 16 139 17 74 18 (6,6,6) 25 Source: http://blog.plataformatec.com.br/2016/08/forecasting-software-projects-completion-date-through-monte-carlo-simulation/ 3 rolls?
  13. 13. "SCORE" No OF ROLLS No OF ITERATIONS Iteration Thoughput Sprint 2.1 15 Sprint 2.2 24 Sprint 2.3 31 Sprint 2.4 22 Sprint 2.5 24 Sprint 2.6 24 Sprint 3.1 17 Sprint 3.2 6 (Christmas) Sprint 3.3 16 Sprint 3.4 20 Sprint 3.5 Sprint 3.6
  14. 14. Two possible questions How long will it take to deliver a given backlog? How many work items we can fit in a time-box?
  15. 15. Monte Carlo Simulation Burndown Chart BackogItems 0 25 50 75 100 Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 3nd Iteration
  16. 16. Burndown Chart BackogItems 0 25 50 75 100 Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6 4th Iteration
  17. 17. • Reduced risks • Improved feedback to stakeholders • Built trust • Helped to manage budget Predictability & Forecast
  18. 18. Some notes … We have to acknowledge complexity when developing software Start collecting data from your teams today! Monte Carlo is a statistical method hence it is NOT failsafe It gets better after some weeks/iterations
  19. 19. Even a very basic probabilistic forecast is better than following blind a plan!
  20. 20. linkedin.com/in/leonardokb twitter.com/leokbittencourt QUESTIONS? ammeonsolutions.com

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