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Where next for legacies?

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Legacy Foresight presented at the IoF Northern Legacy Marketing Group, March 2017. Covering the legacy market, trends, market drivers and the differences in legacy giving to charities in the North and South, this presentation gives a detailed overview of the UK legacy market and its future.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Where next for legacies?

  1. 1. Where next for legacies?
  2. 2. Introducing Legacy Foresight
  3. 3. 19 Extra Large £20m+ 20 Large £8-20m 44 Medium <£8m Cause area % covered Health 61 Animal 80 Development 82 Conservation 73 Disability 69 Armed Forces 74 Children 84 ‘Other’ 56 Our flagship programme
  4. 4. Recent trends
  5. 5. 1992 - 2012 Deaths Legacies-0.9% 1.5%
  6. 6. Deaths now rising
  7. 7. 2012 - 2016 Deaths Legacies 2.4% 1.4%
  8. 8. Market mirrors economy 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average annual growth 4.7 % p.a. Recession Boom Recession Recovery
  9. 9. House prices drive residuals 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Average house price (2002:1 = 100) UK legacy income (£bn)
  10. 10. The North-South divide
  11. 11. North = 16% of UK income South East, 28 South West, 12 East, 11North West, 8 Greater London, 8 Scotland, 7 East Midlands, 7 West Midlands, 6 Yorkshire & Humberside, 6 Wales, 4 North East, 2Northern Ireland, 1
  12. 12. % estates with charitable gift South West 17% South 15% East 14% North East 12% North West 11% North 11%
  13. 13. House price gap widens South Up North Flat
  14. 14. Winners and losers
  15. 15. Samaritans £3.0m St John Ambulance £1.9m Oxfam £13.8m Help for Heroes £8.2m Breast Cancer Care £0.5m RSPCA £64m RNLI £113m Macmillan £62m CRUK £169m BHF £61m Top 5 = 25% of total income
  16. 16. David v Goliath £1-8m >£20m 2.3% 8.1%
  17. 17. Younger causes gain a toehold 3.4 4.1 1.7 0.9 9.5% 4.3% 2.8%2.5% Victorian Early C20th Post War 1970+ Income £m Growth p.a.
  18. 18. Leading and lagging sectors Older People Advancement of religion Domestic poverty relief Children Heritage Animal welfare Overseas development Disability Hospices Environment Medical conditions Arts Armed forces NHS Trusts Emergency services Education Slow Fast
  19. 19. Ten fastest legacy leaders
  20. 20. The next five years
  21. 21. A nation divided
  22. 22. A hard Brexit?
  23. 23. UK break-up??
  24. 24. The Trump effect???
  25. 25. A Northern Powerhouse?
  26. 26. Good growth despite Brexit 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 2004:2 2004:4 2005:2 2005:4 2006:2 2006:4 2007:2 2007:4 2008:2 2008:4 2009:2 2009:4 2010:2 2010:4 2011:2 2011:4 2012:2 2012:4 2013:2 2013:4 2014:2 2014:4 2015:2 2015:4 2016:2 2016:4 2016 growth: 10.3%
  27. 27. Due to healthy residual values 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2004:2 2004:4 2005:2 2005:4 2006:2 2006:4 2007:2 2007:4 2008:2 2008:4 2009:2 2009:4 2010:2 2010:4 2011:2 2011:4 2012:2 2012:4 2013:2 2013:4 2014:2 2014:4 2015:2 2015:4 2016:2 2016:4 2016 growth: 5.5%
  28. 28. … and uplift in legacy volumes 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 50,000 52,000 54,000 2004:2 2004:4 2005:2 2005:4 2006:2 2006:4 2007:2 2007:4 2008:2 2008:4 2009:2 2009:4 2010:2 2010:4 2011:2 2011:4 2012:2 2012:4 2013:2 2013:4 2014:2 2014:4 2015:2 2015:4 2016:2 2016:4 2004 – 2012 0.7% p.a. 2012 – 2016 2.6% p.a.
  29. 29. Long term outlook
  30. 30. Deaths climb from 2020 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Pre-1930 War Babies Boomers Generation X Generation Y
  31. 31. Boomers more open to idea 11 17 18 22 19 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 50-69 70+ Have charitable will May add gift later May make charitable will later
  32. 32. Concerns for next generation 25 19 20 19 26 27 32 -41 -42 -40 -42 -41 -46 -40 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 All 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Better off Worse off
  33. 33. A slight reduction in income 0 1 2 3 4 5 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Forecast - February 2016 Forecast - August 2016
  34. 34. Legacy Monitor • Performance benchmarking, market analysis • Runs January to December • Recruitment September to November • 83 charities (15 <£2m legacy income) • £4,400+VAT p.a. • New joiners get 50% discount in first year
  35. 35. In Memory Insight • Donor research, case studies, benchmarking • Different themes each year • Runs July to June • Recruitment April to June • 50 charities this year • National charities : £2,200+VAT p.a. • Hospices : £1,100+VAT p.a. • New joiners pay double in first year to access past reports
  36. 36. For more information www.legacyforesight.co.uk @talkinglegacies @talkinginmemory
  37. 37. LegacyForesight Legacy Foresight are Europe’s foremost analysts of the legacy and in-memory giving sectors. We appraise the state of the markets, produce income forecasts and research into donor motivations. With over twenty years experience, we work with over one hundred leading charities across Europe. Authoritative Benchmarking Trusted Forecasts Stimulating Research Illuminating Consultancy
  38. 38. Legacy Foresight www.legacyforesight.co.uk Ashingate East Chiltington East Sussex BN7 3AU 020 3286 5275 How are we performing? Legacy Monitor is our flagship benchmarking service, in operation since 1998. By drawing directly on our clients’ databases, we present the very latest intelligence on legacy incomes, notifications and values. Each client receives tailored reports, comparing their performance against their peers - whether by cause area, age or size. What’s in the pipeline? Our forecasting team can project the number and value of gifts you receive over the next five years. Alongside our central forecasts, we provide optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, to help with financial planning and risk management. These are backed up by clear commentaries, aimed at busy managers and trustees. What’s on the horizon? Our scenario-building service provides an objective view of your future direction and potential. Drawing on our strategic planning skills and sector knowledge, we overlay your organisation's positioning, performance and plans with deep-rooted market trends, to create a spectrum of future possibilities. What do our donors think? We manage bespoke research projects to explore emerging issues. Some projects are commissioned by specific charities, while others are funded by groups of clients, who share their experience, insights and data. This collaborative approach not only cuts costs; it can also save time and create opportunities for joint campaigning.

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