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Legacy Foresight, Where next for Northern Ireland legacies? Will to Give Philanthropy Fortnight May 2017

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Meg Abdy presented Where next for the Northern Ireland legacy market as part of Will to Give's campaign during Philanthropy Fortnight in Northern Ireland, May 2017. Will to Give is an organisation set up to boost legacy giving in Northern Ireland, supported by a committed group of charities, from local to international. Looking at trends in the UK legacy market, with a focus on the local market in Northern Ireland specifically, this presentation tells us 'where next for legacies?'

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Legacy Foresight, Where next for Northern Ireland legacies? Will to Give Philanthropy Fortnight May 2017

  1. 1. Where next for legacies?
  2. 2. Introducing Legacy Foresight
  3. 3. 19 Extra Large £20m+ 20 Large £8-20m 44 Medium <£8m Cause area % covered Health 61 Animal 80 Development 82 Conservation 73 Disability 69 Armed Forces 74 Children 84 ‘Other’ 56 Our flagship programme
  4. 4. UK market trends
  5. 5. Total UK legacy giving is worth £2.8bn, coming from 121,000 bequests Legacies represent 13% of voluntary income, 5% of total income
  6. 6. Market mirrors economy 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average annual growth 4.7 % p.a. Recession Boom Recession Recovery
  7. 7. House prices drive residuals 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Average house price (2002:1 = 100) UK legacy income (£bn)
  8. 8. 1992 - 2012 Deaths Legacies-0.9% 1.5%
  9. 9. Deaths now rising
  10. 10. 2012 - 2016 Deaths Legacies 2.4% 1.4%
  11. 11. Punching above its weight Legacy marketing spend is 3% of total fundraising spend but legacy income is 38% of voluntary income Total fundraising spend Total voluntary income Legacy income Legacy marketing spend
  12. 12. Giving comes from key groups % who have made a charitable will 9 12 14 29 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 All With degree Volunteers High value donors Childless 55+s
  13. 13. Many legators ‘invisible’! % of legacies by source Prospects, 3% Pledgers, 11% Other known supporters, 35% Unknown to the charity, 52%
  14. 14. Winners and losers
  15. 15. Samaritans £3.0m St John Ambulance £1.9m Oxfam £13.8m Help for Heroes £8.2m Breast Cancer Care £0.5m RSPCA £64m RNLI £113m Macmillan £62m CRUK £169m BHF £61m Top 5 = 25% of total income
  16. 16. David v Goliath £1-8m >£20m 2.3% 8.1%
  17. 17. Younger causes gain a toehold 3.4 4.1 1.7 0.9 9.5% 4.3% 2.8%2.5% Victorian Early C20th Post War 1970+ Income £m Growth p.a.
  18. 18. Legacy income by sector Health, 39% Animal, 14% Conservation, 8% Disability, 7% Development, 6% Armed Forces, 3% Children, 3% Other, 19% 2014/15, %
  19. 19. Leading and lagging sectors Older People Advancement of religion Domestic poverty relief Children Heritage Animal welfare Overseas development Disability Hospices Environment Medical conditions Arts Armed forces NHS Trusts Emergency services Education Slow Fast
  20. 20. Ten fastest legacy leaders
  21. 21. What makes you special?
  22. 22. South East, 28 South West, 12 East, 11 North West, 8 Greater London, 8 Scotland, 7 East Midlands, 7 West Midlands, 6 Yorkshire & Humberside, 6 Wales, 4 North East, 2Northern Ireland, 1 NI = 1% of UK income
  23. 23. Probate and will-making low % of deaths 52 42 42 44 37 34 7 4 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 England & Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Probated estates With will attached Including charitable gift 15% of wills include a gift 10% of wills include a gift 10% of wills include a gift
  24. 24. 74% don’t have a will…yet 19 25 21 21 26 25 24 20 20 19 18 33 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland When I make a will, I'll consider a gift to charity When I make a will, I don't plan to leave a gift to charity I don’t have a will, and don’t think I will
  25. 25. Uptick in intestacy last year % NI probate applications without a will attached 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  26. 26. Cash gifts far more common % of gifts by type 46 28 51 60 2 12 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Great Britain Northern Ireland Residuary Pecuniary Other
  27. 27. Religious causes still dominate Legacy notifications by cause area, %, 2016 Religion, 45.3 Health, 24.7 Other, 13.8 Development, 6.9 Animals, 5.3 Children, 3.5 Conservation, 0.5
  28. 28. … especially compared to GB! % of bequests by sector 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Animal Health Religious Organisations Other England & Wales Scotland NI
  29. 29. 44% ‘open’ to leaving a gift 6 9 7 5 9 7 13 6 20 19 18 33 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland When I make a will, I'll consider a gift to charity I have a will, may leave a gift to charity when I revise it I have a charitable will
  30. 30. House prices slowly recovering Average house price (£) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland
  31. 31. Market outlook
  32. 32. A nation divided
  33. 33. NI the most anxious Confidence in your future, by region , % less confident 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
  34. 34. … worried for next generation Expectations for future generations, by region , % worse off 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
  35. 35. A hard Brexit ahead
  36. 36. Weak economic outlook
  37. 37. … and political uncertainties
  38. 38. Deaths up 20%, next 20 years Northern Irish deaths, 1981 – 2035, 000s 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 1981-82 1983-84 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24 2025-26 2027-28 2029-30 2031-32 2033-34 2035-36
  39. 39. Deaths driven by boomers 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Pre-1930 War Babies Boomers Generation X Generation Y
  40. 40. Boomers more open to idea 11 17 18 22 19 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 50-69 70+ Have charitable will May add gift later May make charitable will later
  41. 41. Concerns for next generation 25 19 20 19 26 27 32 -41 -42 -40 -42 -41 -46 -40 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 All 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Better off Worse off
  42. 42. Boomers expect … Tangibility Transparency Control “ I want to picture the difference my money will make.” “ I want to know that my money’s being used well, not getting lost in the system” “ I want to my wishes to be taken into account, even when I’m not around”
  43. 43. Good growth despite Brexit 0 1 2 3 4 5 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Forecast - February 2016 Forecast - August 2016
  44. 44. Think opportunities!
  45. 45. Think communications
  46. 46. Think boomers
  47. 47. Think local
  48. 48. Think will-making
  49. 49. Think collaboration
  50. 50. Thanks for listening Meg Abdy m.abdy@legacyforesight.co.uk www.legacyforesight.co.uk @talkinglegacies
  51. 51. LegacyForesight Legacy Foresight are Europe’s foremost analysts of the legacy and in-memory giving sectors. We appraise the state of the markets, produce income forecasts and research into donor motivations. With over twenty years experience, we work with over one hundred leading charities across Europe. Authoritative Benchmarking Trusted Forecasts Stimulating Research Illuminating Consultancy
  52. 52. Legacy Foresight Ashingate East Chiltington East Sussex BN7 3AU 020 3286 5275 How are we performing? Legacy Monitor is our flagship benchmarking service, in operation since 1998. By drawing directly on our clients’ databases, we present the very latest intelligence on legacy incomes, notifications and values. Each client receives tailored reports, comparing their performance against their peers - whether by cause area, age or size. What’s in the pipeline? Our forecasting team can project the number and value of gifts you receive over the next five years. Alongside our central forecasts, we provide optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, to help with financial planning and risk management. These are backed up by clear commentaries, aimed at busy managers and trustees. What’s on the horizon? Our scenario-building service provides an objective view of your future direction and potential. Drawing on our strategic planning skills and sector knowledge, we overlay your organisation's positioning, performance and plans with deep-rooted market trends, to create a spectrum of future possibilities. What do our donors think? We manage bespoke research projects to explore emerging issues. Some projects are commissioned by specific charities, while others are funded by groups of clients, who share their experience, insights and data. This collaborative approach not only cuts costs; it can also save time and create opportunities for joint campaigning. www.legacyforesight.co.uk @talkinglegacies @talkinginmemory

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