Day 16 - Dynamics of Party Change in Congress

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Day 16 - Dynamics of Party Change in Congress

  1. 1. Day 16 – Dynamics of Party Change In Congress July 25, 2013
  2. 2. Realigning or Critical Elections  “Even the most fleeting inspection of American elections suggests the existence of a category of elections in which voters are, at least from impressionistic evidence, unusually deeply concerned, in which the extent of electoral involvement is relatively quite high, and in which the decisive results of the voting reveal a sharp alteration of the pre-existing cleavage within the electorate.”  V.O. Key in “A Theory of Critical Elections” (1955)  What do they lead to?  Party Systems  Parties’ issue positions shift along with voters’ behavior every few decades.  Periodic build-up of societal pressure (roughly once a generation) overthrows “politics as usual” system.
  3. 3. How Do Party Alignments Change Over Time?  Realignment Theory (Key 1955, Burnham 1970)  Issue Evolution (Carmines and Stimson 1989)  Certain issues can restructure the political system (e.g. race)  Party Position Change (Karol 2009)
  4. 4. Election of 1800  Federalist Party: John Adams, Charles C. Pickney  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeHepBjAyS0&list=PL0 FwQejmr_tdPzPFRpOP8zIwj-Bf8NiYk  Democratic-Republican Party: Thomas Jefferson, Aaron Burr  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQmtEc-6E-Y
  5. 5. Election of 1828  Whig Party: John Q. Adams (Incumbent)  Democratic Party: Andrew Jackson  Rematch of 1824  The “Corrupt Bargain” Source: http://www.270towin.com/1824_Electio
  6. 6. Jacksonian Democracy  Expanded suffrage  Universal white male suffrage  Manifest Destiny  Patronage  Strict Constructionism  Federal government of limited powers’  Laissez-fair Economics  Anti-Banking
  7. 7. The Secession Crisis of the 1850s  “Men had been talking more and more since 1852 of a great new party that would not only unite Whigs and Free-Soilers but bring in half or more of the northern Democrats who could not stomach their party’s constant compromises with slavery.” - James Sundquist (1983)
  8. 8. 1850
  9. 9. 1852
  10. 10. 1854
  11. 11. 1856
  12. 12. 1858
  13. 13. 1860
  14. 14.  Republican Party Platform  http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=29620  Results by State  http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year= 1860&fips=0&f=0&off=0&elect=0
  15. 15. 2012 in Comparison

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