Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Slides from Growthcon 2014 Lean Analytics masterclass

5,646 views

Published on

Slides from Growthcon Tokyo in October 2014

Published in: Leadership & Management
  • Your opinions matter! get paid for them! click here for more info...■■■ https://tinyurl.com/make2793amonth
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • Have you ever heard of taking paid surveys on the internet before? We have one right now that pays $50, and takes less than 10 minutes! If you want to take it, here is your personal link ★★★ http://ishbv.com/surveys6/pdf
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • Hello! Get Your Professional Job-Winning Resume Here - Check our website! https://vk.cc/818RFv
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

Slides from Growthcon 2014 Lean Analytics masterclass

  1. 1. Practical Lean Analytics Growthcon October 24, 2014 @acroll
  2. 2. Kevin Costner is a lousy entrepreneur. Don’t sell what you can make. Make what you can sell.
  3. 3. The core of Lean is iteration.
  4. 4. Most startups don’t know what they’ll be when they grow up. Hotmail was a database company Flickr was going to be an MMO Twitter was a podcasting company Autodesk made desktop automation Paypal first built for Palmpilots Freshbooks was invoicing for a web design firm Wikipedia was to be written by experts only Mitel was a lawnmower company
  5. 5. Waterfall, agile, and lean (Why the old ways don’t work.)
  6. 6. Waterfall approach You know the problem and the solution.
  7. 7. Known set of requirements Known ways to satisfy them Spec Build Test Launch
  8. 8. Agile methodologies Know the problem, find the solution
  9. 9. Known set of requirements Unclear how to satisfy them Problem Build Test Viable? Launch statement Sprints Adjust Unknown set of
  10. 10. Lean approach First, know that you don’t know.
  11. 11. Product/market hypothesis Trial startup Possible problem space Product/ market hypothesis Trial startup Product/ market hypothesis Trial startup Trial startup Product/market hypothesis You are here PIVOT
  12. 12. Why now? First: High rate of change of digital technologies & channels.
  13. 13. Arbitron and radio data
  14. 14. Times a song in “heavy rotation” is played daily 30 15 0 6 26 2007 2012
  15. 15. Why now? Second: It’s no longer about whether you can build it—it’s about whether anyone will care.
  16. 16. The Attention Economy “What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, and a need to allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance of information sources that might consume it.” (Computers, Communications and the Public Interest, pages 40-41, Herbert Simon Martin Greenberger, ed., The Johns Hopkins Press, 1971.)
  17. 17. Lit motors tests the risky part
  18. 18. Unfortunately, it is hard to be honest with ourselves.
  19. 19. Everyone’s idea is the best right? People love this part! (but that’s not always a good thing) No data, no learning. This is where things fall apart.
  20. 20. Analytics can help.
  21. 21. Analytics is the measurement of movement towards your business goals.
  22. 22. In a startup, the purpose of analytics is to iterate to product/market fit before the money runs out.
  23. 23. Some fundamentals.
  24. 24. A good metric is: Understandable If you’re busy explaining the data, you won’t be busy acting on it. Comparative Comparison is context. A ratio or rate The only way to measure change and roll up the tension between two metrics (MPH) Behavior changing What will you do differently based on the results you collect?
  25. 25. The simplest rule If a metric won’t change how you behave, it’s a bad metric. h"p://www.flickr.com/photos/circasassy/7858155676/
  26. 26. Metrics help you know yourself. Acquisition Hybrid Loyalty You are just like 70% of retailers 20% of retailers 10% of retailers Customers that buy >1x in 90d Your customers will buy from you Once 2-2.5 per year >2.5 per year Then you are in this mode 1-15% 15-30% >30% Focus on Low acquisition cost, high checkout Increasing return rates, market share Loyalty, selection, inventory size (Thanks to Kevin Hillstrom for this.)
  27. 27. Qualitative Unstructured, anecdotal, revealing, hard to aggregate, often too positive & reassuring. Warm and fuzzy. Quantitative Numbers and stats. Hard facts, less insight, easier to analyze; often sour and disappointing. Cold and hard.
  28. 28. Exploratory Speculative. Tries to find unexpected or interesting insights. Source of unfair advantages. Cool. Reporting Predictable. Keeps you abreast of the normal, day-to-day operations. Can be managed by exception. Necessary.
  29. 29. Rumsfeld on Analytics Things we know don’t know (Or rather, Avinash Kaushik channeling Rumsfeld) we know Are facts which may be wrong and should be checked against data. we don’t know Are questions we can answer by reporting, which we should baseline & automate. we know Are intuition which we should quantify and teach to improve effectiveness, efficiency. we don’t know Are exploration which is where unfair advantage and interesting epiphanies live.
  30. 30. Slicing and dicing data Feb Mar Apr May 5,000 Active users 0 Jan Cohort: Comparison of similar groups along a timeline. (this is the April cohort) A/B test: Changing one thing (i.e. color) and measuring the result (i.e. revenue.) Multivariate analysis Changing several things at once to see which correlates with a result. ☀☁☀☁ Segment: Cross-sectional comparison of all people divided by some attribute (age, gender, etc.) ☀ ☁
  31. 31. Which of these two companies is doing better?
  32. 32. January February March April May Is this company Rev/customer $5.00 $4.50 $4.33 $4.25 $4.50 growing or stagnating? Cohort 1 2 3 4 5 January $5 $3 $2 $1 $0.5 February $6 $4 $2 $1 March $7 $6 $5 April $8 $7 May $9 How about this one?
  33. 33. Cohort 1 2 3 4 5 January $5 $3 $2 $1 $0.5 February $6 $4 $2 $1 March $7 $6 $5 April $8 $7 May $9 Averages $7 $5 $3 $1 $0.5 Look at the same data in cohorts
  34. 34. Lagging Historical. Shows you how you’re doing; reports the news. Example: sales. Explaining the past. Leading Forward-looking. Number today that predicts tomorrow; reports the news. Example: pipeline. Predicting the future.
  35. 35. Some examples A Facebook user reaching 7 friends within 10 days of signing up (Chamath Palihapitiya) If someone comes back to Zynga a day after signing up for a game, they’ll probably become an engaged, paying user (Nabeel Hyatt) A Dropbox user who puts at least one file in one folder on one device (ChenLi Wang) Twitter user following a certain number of people, and a certain percentage of those people following the user back (Josh Elman) A LinkedIn user getting to X connections in Y days (Elliot Schmukler) (From the 2012 Growth Hacking conference. http://growthhackersconference.com/)
  36. 36. Which means it’s time to talk about correlation.
  37. 37. 10000 1000 100 10 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ice cream consumption Drownings
  38. 38. Correlated Two variables that are related (but may be dependent on something else.) Ice cream & drowning. Causal An independent variable that directly impacts a dependent one. Summertime & drowning.
  39. 39. A leading, causal metric is a superpower. h"p://www.flickr.com/photos/bloke_with_camera/401812833/sizes/o/in/photostream/
  40. 40. Why is Nigerian spam so badly written?
  41. 41. Experienced scammers expect a “strike rate” of 1 or 2 replies per 1,000 messages emailed; they expect to land 2 or 3 “Mugu” (fools) each week. One scammer boasted “When you get a reply it’s 70% sure you’ll get the money” “By sending an email that repels all but the most gullible,” says [Microsoft Researcher Corman] Herley, “the scammer gets the most promising marks to self-select, and tilts the true to false positive ratio in his favor.” This would be horribly inefficient since humans are involved. Good language (10% conversion) Not-gullible (.07% conversion) Aunshul Rege of Rutgers University, USA in 2009 1000 emails Bad language (0.1% conversion) 1-2 responses Gullible (70% conversion) 1 fool and their money, parted. 1000 emails 100 responses 1 fool and their money, parted.
  42. 42. Turns out the word “Nigeria” is the best way to identify promising prospects.
  43. 43. Nigerian spammers really understand their target market. They see past vanity metrics.
  44. 44. The Lean Analytics framework.
  45. 45. Sustainable growth comes through the actions of your customers. - Eric Ries
  46. 46. Eric’s three engines of growth Virality Make people invite friends. How many they tell, how fast they tell them. Price Spend money to get customers. Customers are worth more than they cost. Stickiness Keep people coming back. Approach Get customers faster than you lose them. Math that matters
  47. 47. Dave’s Pirate Metrics AARRR Acquisition How do your users become aware of you? SEO, SEM, widgets, email, PR, campaigns, blogs ... Activation Do drive-by visitors subscribe, use, etc? Features, design, tone, compensation, affirmation ... Retention Does a one-time user become engaged? Notifications, alerts, reminders, emails, updates... Revenue Do you make money from user activity? Transactions, clicks, subscriptions, DLC, analytics... Referral Do users promote your product? Email, widgets, campaigns, likes, RTs, affiliates...
  48. 48. Gate Stage EMPATHY I’ve found a real, poorly-met need that a reachable market faces. STICKINESS I’ve figured out how to solve the problem in a way they will keep using and pay for. VIRALITY I’ve found ways to get them to tell their friends, either intrinsically or through incentives. REVENUE The users and features fuel growth organically and artificially. SCALE I’ve found a sustainable, scalable business with the right margins in a healthy ecosystem. The five stages
  49. 49. Empathy stage: Localmind hacks Twitter Needed to find out if a core assumption—strangers answering questions—was valid. Ran Twitter experiment instead of writing code Asked senders of geolocated Tweets from Times Square random questions; counted response rate Conclusion: high enough to proceed
  50. 50. LikeBright’s mechanical turk Used Mechanical Turk, Google Voice to speak w/ 100 single women; paid $2. The interviews lasted typically around 10-15 minutes. Simple interview script with open-ended questions, since he was digging into the problem validation stage of his startup. Founder Nick Soman: “I was amazed at the feedback I got. We were able to speak with one hundred single women that met our criteria in four hours on one evening.” Went back to TechStars and got accepted. LikeBright’s website is now live with a 50% female user base, and recently raised a round of funding. “Since that first foray into interviewing customers, I’ve probably spoken with over a thousand people through Mechanical Turk,”
  51. 51. How to avoid leading the witness Avoid biased wording, preconceptions, or a giveaway appearance. Word your surveys carefully to be neutral. Get them to purchase. Ask them to pay. Demand real Ask “why” several times. Leave lingering, uncomfortable pauses Don’t tip your hand Make the question real Keep digging Look for other clues Have a colleague make notes of when they react, or of their body
  52. 52. Stickiness stage: qidiq streamlines invites Survey owner adds recipient to group Survey owner asks question Recipient reads survey question Recipient responds to question Recipient sees survey results (Later, if needed…) Recipient visits site; no password! Recipient does password recovery One-time link sent to email Recipient creates password Recipient can edit profile, etc. Survey owner adds recipient to group Survey owner asks question Recipient gets invite Recipient installs mobile app Recipient creates account, profile Recipient can edit profile, etc. Recipient reads survey question Recipient responds to question Recipient sees survey results 10-25% RESPONSE RATE 70-90% RESPONSE RATE
  53. 53. 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 January February 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Days since last engagement 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Disengaged (>10 days) Number of users A better approach to engagement This is a good thing.
  54. 54. Who is worth more? A Lifetime: B Lifetime: Today $200 $200 Roberto Medri, Etsy Visits
  55. 55. Virality stage: Timehop focuses on content sharing Focused on percent of daily active users that share their content Aiming for 20-30% of DAU sharing “All that matters now is virality. Everything else—be it press, publicity stunts or something else—is like pushing a rock up a mountain: it will never scale. But being viral will.” - Jonathan Wegener, co-founder
  56. 56. ------------------------------------------------------ Get your free private email at http://www.hotmail.com ------------------------------------------------------
  57. 57. v ≠ 1, pt = δp0 (1 – vt+1) / (1 – v) + p0 http://robert.zubek.net/blog/2008/01/30/viral-coefficient-calculation/ Viral coefficient
  58. 58. Or simpler x - > 1 Users Viral coefficient Churn & abandonment
  59. 59. Revenue stage: Backupify’s Customer Acquisition Payback Initially focused on site visitors Then focused on trials Then switched to signups Today, MRR In early 2010, CAC was $243 and ARPU was only $39 Pivoted to target business users CLV-to-CAC today is 5-6x Now they track Customer Acquisition Payback Target is less than 12 months
  60. 60. Scale stage: Incremental order cost Marginal costs Fixed costs
  61. 61. Six business model archetypes. E-commerce SaaS Mobile Media app User-gen content 2-sided market The business you’re in
  62. 62. (Which means eye charts like these.) Customer Acquisition Cost paid direct search wom inherent virality VISITOR Freemium/trial offer Enrollment User Disengaged User Freemium churn Cancel Engaged User Free user disengagement Reactivate Trial abandonment Cancel rate Invite Others Upselling rate Upselling Paying Customer Reactivation rate Paid conversion FORMER USERS User Lifetime Value Reactivate Capacity Limit Support data FORMER CUSTOMERS Customer Lifetime Value Viral coefficient Viral rate Resolution Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp. Paid Churn Rate Tiering Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied
  63. 63. Acquisition Customer Acquisition Cost paid direct search wom inherent virality VISITOR Freemium/trial offer Enrollment User Disengaged User Freemium churn Cancel Engaged User Free user disengagement Reactivate Trial abandonment Cancel rate Invite Others Upselling rate Upselling Paying Customer Reactivation rate Paid conversion FORMER USERS User Lifetime Value Reactivate Capacity Limit Support data FORMER CUSTOMERS Customer Lifetime Value Viral coefficient Viral rate Resolution Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp. Paid Churn Rate Tiering Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied
  64. 64. Activation Customer Acquisition Cost paid direct search wom inherent virality VISITOR Freemium/trial offer Enrollment User Disengaged User Freemium churn Cancel Engaged User Free user disengagement Reactivate Trial abandonment Cancel rate Invite Others Upselling rate Upselling Paying Customer Reactivation rate Paid conversion FORMER USERS User Lifetime Value Reactivate Capacity Limit Support data FORMER CUSTOMERS Customer Lifetime Value Viral coefficient Viral rate Resolution Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp. Paid Churn Rate Tiering Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied
  65. 65. Retention Customer Acquisition Cost paid direct search wom inherent virality VISITOR Freemium/trial offer Enrollment User Disengaged User Freemium churn Cancel Engaged User Free user disengagement Reactivate Trial abandonment Cancel rate Invite Others Upselling rate Upselling Paying Customer Reactivation rate Paid conversion FORMER USERS User Lifetime Value Reactivate Capacity Limit Support data FORMER CUSTOMERS Customer Lifetime Value Viral coefficient Viral rate Resolution Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp. Paid Churn Rate Tiering Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied
  66. 66. Revenue Customer Acquisition Cost paid direct search wom inherent virality VISITOR Freemium/trial offer Enrollment User Disengaged User Freemium churn Cancel Engaged User Free user disengagement Reactivate Trial abandonment Cancel rate Invite Others Upselling rate Upselling Paying Customer Reactivation rate Paid conversion FORMER USERS User Lifetime Value Reactivate Capacity Limit Support data FORMER CUSTOMERS Customer Lifetime Value Viral coefficient Viral rate Resolution Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp. Paid Churn Rate Tiering Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied
  67. 67. Revenue Customer Acquisition Cost paid direct search wom inherent virality VISITOR Freemium/trial offer Enrollment User Disengaged User Freemium churn Cancel Engaged User Free user disengagement Reactivate Trial abandonment Cancel rate Invite Others Upselling rate Upselling Paying Customer Reactivation rate Paid conversion FORMER USERS User Lifetime Value Reactivate Capacity Limit Support data FORMER CUSTOMERS Customer Lifetime Value Viral coefficient Viral rate Resolution Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp. Paid Churn Rate Tiering Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied
  68. 68. Model + Stage = One Metric That Matters. The business you’re in E-Com SaaS Mobile 2-Sided Media UCG One Metric That Matters. Empathy Stickiness Virality Revenue Scale The stage you’re at
  69. 69. Really? Just one?
  70. 70. Yes, one.
  71. 71. In a startup, focus is hard to achieve.
  72. 72. Having only one metric addresses this problem.
  73. 73. www.theeastsiderla.com
  74. 74. Moz cuts down on metrics SaaS-based SEO toolkit in the scale stage. Focused on net adds. Was a marketing campaign successful? Were customer complaints lowered? Was a product upgrade valuable? Net adds up: Can we acquire more valuable customers? What product features can increase engagement? Can we improve customer support? Net adds flat: Are the new customers not the right segment? Did a marketing campaign fail? Did a product upgrade fail somehow? Is customer support falling apart? Net adds down:
  75. 75. Metrics are like squeeze toys. http://www.flickr.com/photos/connortarter/4791605202/
  76. 76. Empathy Stickiness Virality Revenue Scale E-commerce Mobile app User-gen content SaaS Media 2-sided market Interviews; qualitative results; quantitative scoring; surveys Loyalty, conversion CAC, shares, reactivation (Money from transactions) Transaction, CLV Affiliates, white-label Engagement, churn Inherent virality, CAC (Money from active users) Upselling, CAC, CLV API, magic #, mktplace Content, spam Invites, sharing (Money from ad clicks) Ads, donations Analytics, user data Inventory, listings SEM, sharing Transactions, commission Other verticals Downloads, churn, virality WoM, app ratings, CAC CLV, ARPDAU Spinoffs, publishers Traffic, visits, returns Content virality, SEM CPE, affiliate %, eyeballs Syndication, licenses
  77. 77. Better: bit.ly/BigLeanTable
  78. 78. Drawing some lines in the sand.
  79. 79. A company loses a quarter of its customers every year. Is this good or bad?
  80. 80. Baseline: 2-5% monthly churn • The best SaaS get 1.5% - 3% a month. They have multiple Ph.D’s on the job. • Get below a 5% monthly churn rate before you know you’ve got a business that’s ready to grow (Mark MacLeod) and around 2% before you really step on the gas (David Skok) • Last-ditch appeals and reactivation can have a big impact. Facebook’s “don’t leave” reduces attrition by 7%.
  81. 81. Not knowing what normal is makes you do unwise things.
  82. 82. Baseline: 5-7% growth a week “A good growth rate during YC is 5-7% a week,” he says. “If you can hit 10% a week you're doing exceptionally well. If you can only manage 1%, it's a sign you haven't yet figured out what you're doing.” At revenue stage, measure growth in revenue. Before that, measure growth in active users. Paul Graham, Y Combinator • Are there enough people who really care enough to sustain a 5% growth rate? • Don’t strive for a 5% growth at the expense of really understanding your customers and building a meaningful solution • Once you’re a pre-revenue startup at or near product/market fit, you should have 5% growth of active users each week • Once you’re generating revenues, they should grow at 5% a week
  83. 83. Baseline: 10% visitor engagement/day 30% of users/month use web or mobile app 10% of users/day use web or mobile app 1%of users/day use it concurrently Fred Wilson’s social ratios
  84. 84. Baseline: Calculating customer lifetime 25% 5% monthly churn monthly churn 100/25=4 100/5=20 The average The average customer lasts customer lasts 4 months 20 months 2% monthly churn 100/2=50 The average customer lasts 50 months
  85. 85. Baseline: CAC under 1/3 of CLV • CLV is wrong. CAC Is probably wrong, too. • Time kills all plans: It’ll take a long time to find out whether your churn and revenue projections are right • Cashflow: You’re basically “loaning” the customer money between acquisition and CLV. • It keeps you honest: Limiting yourself to a CAC of only a third of your CLV will forces you to verify costs sooner. Lifetime of 20 mo. $30/mo. per customer $600 CLV 1/3 spend $200 CAC Now segment those users!
  86. 86. Etsy • Online store for creative types, founded 2005 • $525M Gross Merchandise Sales in 2011, with 19,000,000 members and 800,000 active shops offering 15,000,000 items for sale • 1.4B pageviews per month ~2M iPhone app downloads • Thin revenues: Etsy makes only $0.20 or 3.5% margin • Heavy focus on Customer Lifetime Value (buyer and seller) • Actually residual lifetime value; they take this pretty seriously.
  87. 87. Etsy • The best customers to target are • Recent high-profile customers • Old-time best customers about to churn or just churned • Tiered campaigns • Bronze/silver customers: reinforcement, nudges • Gold customers: premium services • Platinum customers: recognition • What they watch: • Growth of individual product categories • Time to first sale by a user • Average order value • Percentage of visits that convert to a sale • Percentage of return buyers • Distinct sellers within a product category • Time-to-first-sale and average order value by product category Roberto Medri, Etsy
  88. 88. The Lean Analytics cycle
  89. 89. Pick a KPI Draw a line Draw a new line Pivot or give up Try again Success! Did we move the needle? Measure the results Design a test Make changes in production Find a potential improvement With data: find a commonality Without data: make a good guess Hypothesis
  90. 90. Do AirBnB hosts get more business if their property is professionally photographed?
  91. 91. Gut instinct (hypothesis) Professional photography helps AirBnB’s business Candidate solution (MVP) 20 field photographers posing as employees Measure the results Compare photographed listings to a control group Make a decision Launch photography as a new feature for all hosts
  92. 92. 5,000 shoots per month by February 2012
  93. 93. Hang on a second.
  94. 94. REALLY? Gut instinct (hypothesis) Professional photography helps AirBnB’s business
  95. 95. Pick a KPI Draw a line Draw a new line Pivot or give up Try again Success! Did we move the needle? Measure the results Design a test Make changes in production Find a potential improvement With data: find a commonality Without data: make a good guess Hypothesis
  96. 96. “Gee, those houses that do well look really nice.” Maybe it’s the camera. With data: find a commonality “Computer: What do all the highly rented houses have in common?” Camera model. Without data: make a good guess
  97. 97. Circle of Moms: Not enough engagement • Too few people were actually using the product • Less than 20% of any circles had any activity after their initial creation • A few million monthly uniques from 10M registered users, but no sustained traction • They found moms were far more engaged • Their messages to one another were on average 50% longer • They were 115% more likely to attach a picture to a post they wrote • They were 110% more likely to engage in a threaded (i.e. deep) conversation • Circle owners’ friends were 50% more likely to engage with the circle • They were 75% more likely to click on Facebook notifications • They were 180% more likely to click on Facebook news feed items • They were 60% more likely to accept invitations to the app • Pivoted to the new market, including a name change • By late 2009, 4.5M users and strong engagement • Sold to Sugar, inc. in early 2012
  98. 98. Landing page design A/B testing Cohort analysis General analytics URL shortening Funnel analytics Influencer Marketing Publisher analytics SaaS analytics Gaming analytics User analytics Spying on users User interaction Customer User segmentation satisfaction KPI dashboards
  99. 99. Growth hacking (is a word you should hate but will hear a lot about.)
  100. 100. Growth hacking, demystified. Find correlation Test causality Optimize the causal factor Pick a metric to change
  101. 101. http://blog.justgiving.com/nine-reasons-why-social-and-mobile-are-the-future-of-fundraising/ Is social action a leading indicator of donation?
  102. 102. http://blog.justgiving.com/nine-reasons-why-social-and-mobile-are-the-future-of-fundraising/ Is mobile use?
  103. 103. Guerrilla marketing Data-driven learning GROWTH HACKING Subversiveness
  104. 104. AirBnB and Craigslist
  105. 105. Take baby steps.
  106. 106. Netflix
  107. 107. Tesla http://www.hdwallpapersinn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/600-tesla.jpg
  108. 108. Twitter’s 140-character limit isn’t arbitrary. It’s constrained by the size http://i.i.cbsi.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim/2011/11/18/ sms_screen_twitter_activity_stream_270x405.png
  109. 109. http://www.flickr.com/photos/bootbearwdc/1243690099/ Think subversively.
  110. 110. To summarize:
  111. 111. 1. Define your business model
  112. 112. 2. Draw a system diagram
  113. 113. 3. Decide what stage you’re at
  114. 114. 4. Identify the One Metric That Matters (usually the one that is most broken)
  115. 115. 5. Use the cycle to experiment until you’ve achieved the desired result.
  116. 116. 6. Set up monitoring for this metric in case it breaks, and choose a new OMTM
  117. 117. Conclusions
  118. 118. “The most important figures that one needs for management are unknown or unknowable, but successful management must nevertheless take account of them.” Lloyd S. Nelson
  119. 119. Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844
  120. 120. ARCHIMEDES HAD TAKEN BATHS BEFORE.
  121. 121. Once, a leader convinced others in the absence of data.
  122. 122. Now, a leader knows what questions to ask.
  123. 123. Ben Yoskovitz byosko@gmail.com @byosko Alistair Croll acroll@gmail.com @acroll
  124. 124. The mobile app! customer lifecycle! Ratings Reviews Search Leaderboards Purchases App store! App sales Downloads Installs Play Disengagement Reactivation Uninstallation Disengagement Account" creation Virality Downloads," Gross revenue ARPU Activation Churn, CLV In-app" purchases Legitimate Incentivized Fraudulent Ratings!
  125. 125. Building message maps
  126. 126. Build a message map. 1. Understand the stages a buyer goes through 2. Create benefits; mitigate objections 3. Target the message to the stage the audience is at
  127. 127. Everyone in the world A. I need a car I should buy B. a car It should be C. a hybrid I should buy D. a Honda Civic
  128. 128. Everyone in the world A. I need a car People who want to drive I should buy B. a car Prospective car buyers It should be C. a hybrid People looking for a hybrid I should buy D. a Honda Civic Honda Civic Hybrid owners
  129. 129. “Isn’t it time you got out of the city?” campaign showing how cars make nature accessible & ridiculing urban hipsters. Ads showing how cars are needed any time (pregnancy, errands, urgent business) and how a car is a “personal assistant.” Urgency (“every time you drive a non-hybrid car you kill the planet a little”) and testimonials from buyers who’ve saved money. Honda branding ads and model-specific promotions. Follow-up satisfaction campaign to encourage buyers to tell their friends Everyone in the world A. I need a car People who want to drive “I need a vehicle to get around, be productive, and enjoy my life.” I should buy B. a car Prospective car buyers “I want to own a car because it’s convenient; it’s a personal relationship; I don’t trust others.” It should be C. a hybrid People looking for a hybrid “I want to save money and fuel. I also care about the environment and want to be seen as ‘green’.” I should buy D. a Honda Civic Honda Civic Hybrid owners
  130. 130. Everyone in the world People who want to drive “I need a vehicle to get around, be productive, and enjoy my life.” Prospective car buyers “I want to own a car because it’s convenient; it’s a personal relationship; I don’t trust others.” People looking for a hybrid “I want to save money and fuel. I also care about the environment and want to be seen as ‘green’.” Honda Civic Hybrid owners Those who don’t need cars • I’m too young to drive • I’m too old to drive • I can walk or take public transit Car users who won’t buy • It’s too expensive for me • I will use a shared car service • It’ll get stolen Those who won’t buy hybrids • Hybrids are gutless • Batteries are toxic & explosive • In the end it costs more than it saves I will buy another brand • I buy domestic • I’ve always driven a VW • Toyotas are reliable • I want something prestigious A. I need a car I should buy B. a car It should be C. a hybrid I should buy D. a Honda Civic
  131. 131. Everyone in the world People who want to drive “I need a vehicle to get around, be productive, and enjoy my life.” Prospective car buyers “I want to own a car because it’s convenient; it’s a personal relationship; I don’t trust others.” People looking for a hybrid “I want to save money and fuel. I also care about the environment and want to be seen as ‘green’.” Honda Civic Hybrid owners Those who don’t need cars • I’m too young to drive • I’m too old to drive • I can walk or take public transit Car users who won’t buy • It’s too expensive for me • I will use a shared car service • It’ll get stolen Those who won’t buy hybrids • Hybrids are gutless • Batteries are toxic & explosive • In the end it costs more than it saves I will buy another brand • I buy domestic • I’ve always driven a VW • Toyotas are reliable • I want something prestigious Sponsor a driving school “Give the gift of driving” campaign for grandparents. PR on dangers of commuting, pedestrian deaths Financing, cashback Sell to carshares; underscore their limitations Theft warranty, tracking services, high-end locks Independent tests, standard metrics (0-60 in X) Lab research, studies ROI calculator; replacement programs Prove Honda hires US workers “Time to leave Germany” ads Spontaneous accel. stories Premium brand (Acura) A. I need a car I should buy B. a car It should be C. a hybrid I should buy D. a Honda Civic
  132. 132. “Isn’t it time you got out of the city?” campaign showing how cars make nature accessible & ridiculing urban hipsters. Ads showing how cars are needed any time (pregnancy, errands, urgent business) and how a car is a “personal assistant.” Urgency (“every time you drive a non-hybrid car you kill the planet a little”) and testimonials from buyers who’ve saved money. Honda branding ads and model-specific promotions. Follow-up satisfaction campaign to encourage buyers to tell their friends Everyone in the world People who want to drive “I need a vehicle to get around, be productive, and enjoy my life.” Prospective car buyers “I want to own a car because it’s convenient; it’s a personal relationship; I don’t trust others.” People looking for a hybrid “I want to save money and fuel. I also care about the environment and want to be seen as ‘green’.” Honda Civic Hybrid owners Those who don’t need cars • I’m too young to drive • I’m too old to drive • I can walk or take public transit Car users who won’t buy • It’s too expensive for me • I will use a shared car service • It’ll get stolen Those who won’t buy hybrids • Hybrids are gutless • Batteries are toxic & explosive • In the end it costs more than it saves I will buy another brand • I buy domestic • I’ve always driven a VW • Toyotas are reliable • I want something prestigious Sponsor a driving school “Give the gift of driving” campaign for grandparents. PR on dangers of commuting, pedestrian deaths Financing, cashback Sell to carshares; underscore their limitations Theft warranty, tracking services, high-end locks Independent tests, standard metrics (0-60 in X) Lab research, studies ROI calculator; replacement programs Prove Honda hires US workers “Time to leave Germany” ads Spontaneous accel. stories Premium brand (Acura) A. I need a car I should buy B. a car It should be C. a hybrid I should buy D. a Honda Civic

×