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Lean Kanban India 2018 | Patrick Steyaert

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Session Title :
From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban, a Fresh look

Session Overview:
Portfolio Kanban plays a crucial role in balancing demand with capability at the highest level of the organization. Most Portfolio Kanban systems are shallow, as is the currently available guidance. It does not go much further than visualization and a cadence of conversations. At best there is a crude notion of limiting the amount of initiatives in progress. It is time to take the next step. In this presentation we build on our experiences with implementing Upstream Kanban and using systems dynamics to give insight and guidance on creating enterprise flow with Upstream and Portfolio Kanban. We start from Upstream Kanban where we address the problem of managing a fluctuating demand. We analyse the feedback loops and delays that are the source of oscillation and show how to turn oscillation into a (more) steady end-to-end flow. We discuss capacity constraints, liquidity problems and ways of organizing the marketplace that emerges when needs of diverse customers with possibly conflicting priorities need to be matched with a heterogenous capability. Finally, we discuss the role of triage in a portfolio with incommensurable choices.

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Lean Kanban India 2018 | Patrick Steyaert

  1. 1. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 1 From upstream to portfolio Kanban July 2018 patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com Going beyond the obvious
  2. 2. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 2 Business agility More than agile development Develop / DeliverBusiness / CustomerUser / Consumer
  3. 3. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 3 SUPPLY DEMAND Balance and flow At all levels CREATE & SHAPE DEMAND In order to make better use of (constrained) delivery capability IMPROVE (DELIVERY) CAPABILITY In order to better meet (fluctuating) demand satisfied needsuspected need
  4. 4. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 4 Fluctuating demand, variable capacity Capacity Demand Excess capacity (starvation) Lack of capacity (overburdening)
  5. 5. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 5 Feedforward and feedback Knowledge discovery Across the value stream Viability Feasibility Desirability FEEDBACK How does it impact users? How can we solve the problem? Discover (tension) Divergence Convergence One of many options Design (concept) Convergence One of few options Divergence Convergence Embedded options Develop (product) Divergence What is the problem or opportunity? business Deliver (solution)
  6. 6. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 6 Agile Portfolio management A cornerstone of business agility Image courtesy of
  7. 7. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 7 WIP Limit Beyond the obvious Incommensurable demand Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio Conflicting demand Over- burdening Fluctuating demand Heterogenous capability
  8. 8. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 8 Using System dynamics Stock Inflow Outflow Population Birth rate Death rate R Bigger population -> more babies B Bigger population -> more deaths delay delay Oscillation stock S-curve stock Exponential stock Goal-seeking stock
  9. 9. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 9 Flow of work Rate of starting work Rate of finishing work S-curve WIP R Exponential WIP Blocked work + + B Goal-seeking WIP Pull options + + WIP* c WIP limit * Work in progress
  10. 10. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 10 End to end flow Upstream – creating options Downstream – exercising options Inventory System Kanban (system lead time) Customer Kanban (customer lead time) Upstream Kanban (upstream lead time)
  11. 11. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 11 Demand and supply Ready options Free capacity Liquidity DEMAND SUPPLY Exercise options Commit capacity and O O delay delaydelay delay DownstreamUpstream Release capacity O Too little capacity O Create options Too little options or Just enough options Just enough capacity
  12. 12. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 12 Modeling end-to-end flow Overburdening (lack of supply) + + Starvation (lack of demand) - + Rate of creating options Rate of exercising options Options inventory upstream downstream Oscillation delay delay
  13. 13. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 13 boom and bust cycles Inventory of options Upstream batch size Time Upstream lead time Exercise Delay Exercise
  14. 14. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 14 Order points Avoiding starvation Order point Upstream batch size Upstream lead time Time Inventory of options
  15. 15. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 15 Order points Adding safety stock Order point Safety stock Upstream batch size Upstream lead time Time Inventory of options
  16. 16. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 16 Example Ready to commit Upstream Downstream >= 12 Order point (incl. 2 items safety stock) Ready to execute Downstream delivers 5 items per week Upstream lead time is 2 weeks
  17. 17. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 17 WIP Limit Order point Beyond the obvious Incommensurable demand Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio Conflicting demand Over- burdening Fluctuating demand Heterogenous capability
  18. 18. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 18 Heterogenous capabilities
  19. 19. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 19 S-curve WIP Team level S-curve RIP Cross-team level The whole is more than the sum of parts ”Work-in-progress under control” ”Request-in-progress not under control” S-curveWIP S-curve WIP
  20. 20. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 20 CAP TOKENS REPRESENTING CAPACITY Finish request Start request Starting work requires the right set of CAP tokens B Y R B CAP tokens are returned when work is finished
  21. 21. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 21 Matching Demand must be matched with available capacity to get executed. Team blue Team red Team yellow Upstream Downstream Ready to commit Ready to execute Demand must be matched with available capacity to get executed.
  22. 22. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 22 Reservation Ready to commit Selected CAP tokens are moved upstream to reserve capacity for an important upcoming demand Team blue Team red Team yellow Upstream Downstream
  23. 23. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 23 MULTIPLE CUSTOMERS Ready to commit Selected Customer X Customer Y Customer Z Conflicting demand (total 3 blues required, while only 2 are available) Team blue Team red Team yellow Upstream Downstream
  24. 24. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 24 Market place Ready to commit Selected Customer X Customer Y Customer Z Team blue Team red Team yellow Upstream Downstream Communal sharing Authority ranking Equality matching Market pricing Alan Page Fiske, Structures of Social Life
  25. 25. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 25 WIP Limit Order point CAP Token Market place Beyond the obvious Incommensurable demand Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio Conflicting demand Over- burdening Fluctuating demand Heterogenous capability
  26. 26. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 26 Incommensurability not able to be judged by the same standards; having no common standard of measurement ? ! A B C A and C are incommensurable they cannot be easily compared (nor ordered) A and B are commensurable, they can be (easily) compared (and ordered) !
  27. 27. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 27 Not all should be treated alike Viability Feasibility Desirability FEEDBACK What is the problem or opportunity? How does it impact users? Can we solve the problem? Discover (tension) Divergence Convergence One of many options Design (concept) Convergence One of few options Divergence Convergence Embedded options Develop (product) Divergence Deliver (solution) Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Test / Experiment Spike
  28. 28. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 28 SUPPLY DEMAND Under pressure DEMAND in most case exceeds capacity by far. It is easier to come up with an idea than to realize it. To protect SUPPLY, we need to select demand. This requires that we can compare different demands. In circumstances when demand is incommensurable, this is impossible. In circumstances where demand is commensurable it creates upstream delay that leads to oscillation. 1 2 3
  29. 29. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 29 Triage Routing patients under time pressure Ambulant – “walking wounded”; will be treated when practical Observation – stable for the moment but requires watching by trained persons and frequent re-triage Immediate – "cannot wait" but are likely to survive with immediate treatment Expectant – so severely injured that they are unlikely to survive given the care available TAG - TRIAGE Expectant TAG - TRIAGE Observation TAG - TRIAGE Immediate TAG - TRIAGE Ambulant
  30. 30. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 30 More than prio- ritization
  31. 31. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 31 Triage Routing demand under time pressure Pull (on demand) – The demand will be treated when practical; start when capacity allows Pre-empt (to avoid expediting) – Examine the demand pro-actively; keep ahead of events Expedite (for immediate action) – All hands on deck; the demand needs immediate action; swarm if needed Escalate (for decision making) – Validity of the demand is questioned TAG - TRIAGE Escalate TAG - TRIAGE Pre-empt TAG - TRIAGE Expedite TAG - TRIAGE Pull
  32. 32. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 32 Routing Develop (product) Deliver (solution) Viability Feasibility Desirability FEEDBACK Discover (tension) Design (concept) Demand Challenged demand Unchallenged demand (taking the long route) (taking the short route)
  33. 33. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 33 Ready to commit S/A in Progress Synthesis/Analysis Portfolio Kanban Discovery Approval Ready for S/A Approval in progress Approved Capture >= 1 >= 5 Order points Low risk / friction items skip discovery Triage Order points >= 3 Minimal options Reserved capacity
  34. 34. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 34 WIP Limit Order point CAP Token Market place Triage Agile portfolio management Incommensurable demand Team End-to-end Multi-team Multi-customer Portfolio Conflicting demand Over- burdening Fluctuating demand Heterogenous capability Beyond the obvious
  35. 35. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 35 Thank you@PatrickSteyaert @OkaloaFlowlab More info about Okaloa Flowlab at www.okaloa.com/flowlab Or join our Business Agility training at www.okaloa.com/business-agility-training
  36. 36. From Upstream to Portfolio Kanban© Patrick Steyaert, 2018 36 CONTACT DETAILS t +32 473 56 50 98 t +32 477 79 12 98 arlette.vercammen@okaloa.com patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com @OkaloaFlowlab @PatrickSteyaert

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