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OECD eksperta Andrea Basanini prezentācija


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Ekonomiskās sadarbības un attīstības organizācijas eksperta, pētījuma "OECD Employment Outlook" redaktora Andrea Basanini ievadreferāta par darbu nākotnē prezentācija Latvijas Bankas tautsaimniecības konferencē "Baltijas darba tirgus nākotne".

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OECD eksperta Andrea Basanini prezentācija

  1. 1. OECD Employment Outlook 2019 Andrea Bassanini Editor of the OECD Employment Outlook Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD
  2. 2. Should we brace for a jobless future? Massive technological unemployment is unlikely, but many jobs will change and transitions will be difficult Over the past 20 years, employment in manufacturing went down by 20%, while it went up by 27% in services 2 Employment rates overall have risen in most OECD countries (1990-2017) % 1990 2017
  3. 3. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Orders of industrial robots have tripled over the past decade Worldwide annual supply of industrial robots, in thousands 3 Should we brace for a jobless future?
  4. 4. Task changes are already occurring at a fast pace 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Percentage of workers in workplaces that have introduced new technologies and/or undergone significant restructuring in the way jobs and tasks are carried out in the previous 3 years, 2015 Note: Share of working answering affirmatively to the following question: During the last three years, has there been a restructuring or reorganisation at the workplace that has substantially affected your work? Source: European Working Condition Survey, 2015
  5. 5. Many jobs will change due to automation 14% of jobs could be automated… 14% 32% 5 … but many more will change significantly Percentage of jobs at risk of automation (as a % of all jobs) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 High risk of automation (>70%) Significant risk of change (50-70%)
  6. 6. 6 Trends in skill shortages and surpluses, OECD unweighted average, 2004-17 Note: Positive values on the skill needs index represent shortages, while negative values correspond to surpluses. The index varies between -1 and +1. The maximum value represents the strongest shortage observed across OECD (31) countries and skill areas. Source: OECD Skills for Jobs database. -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2004 2017 Rising shortage of cognitive and soft social skills
  7. 7. Make adult learning systems future-ready for all The demand for skills is changing, but adult learning systems are ill-equipped for this challenge The most vulnerable are least likely to participate in adult learning But many adults lack the skills needed for the new jobs emerging The share of high-skilled jobs has increased by 25% over the last two decades 6 out of 10 adults lack basic ICT skills or have no computer experience Adult participation in training 7 25% Skill level Automation risk Self-employed Temporary workers
  8. 8. Adult Learning Policy Directions • Foster a mind-set for learning among firms and individuals • Tackle barriers to training • Encourage employers to train groups at risk • Target adult learning policies on the groups that need them most • Make training rights portable • Share the financial burden of scaling up adult learning systems 8
  9. 9. Social protection: Not leaving anyone on their own Some social protection systems are not well prepared for the faster pace of job reallocation and new forms of work On average across countries, two out of three jobseekers did not receive unemployment benefits in 2016 After adjusting for changes in the demographic structure, average job tenure has decreased by around five months (or 4.9%) since 2006 In some countries, workers in non- standard employment are 40-50% less likely to receive any form of income support when out of work 9 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 % change in tenure
  10. 10. Social Protection Policy Directions • Review social protection entitlement criteria • Enable workers in independent forms of employment to build up rights to out-of-work support • Make entitlements portable across jobs and forms of employment and means tests more responsive to people’s needs • Adapt scope and ambition of activation policies • Assess existing social protection financing mechanisms 10
  11. 11. Social security contributions may create incentive for non-standard forms of work 11 Contractor Sole trader unincorporated Quasi self-employed Continuous & coordinated staff (para- subordinate workers) Unincorporated self-employed Sole trader unincorporated 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Employee Contractor / unincorporated self-employed #REF! #REF! Australia Hungary Italy Netherlands Sweden United Kingdom Total payment wedge varies substantially across contractual arrangements in certain countries
  12. 12. Is the end nigh for the standard employment relationship? Many countries have seen growth in non-standard forms of employment, but standard employment remains the norm • Platform work as a person’s main job is still a limited phenomenon, covering between 0.5% and 3% of the workforce in OECD countries • 1 in 9 employees are on a temporary contract • 1 in 7 workers are self-employed • Non-standard work represents over a third of total employment 12
  13. 13. Employment status:Agateway to rights and protections Often blurred distinction between “employee” and “self- employed” • False self-employment: situations where working arrangements are essentially the same as those of employees but individuals are declared as self- employed in order to avoid regulations, taxes and unionisation • Grey zone: some workers will be genuinely difficult to classify – they are self-employed, but share characteristics of dependent employees and so share vulnerabilities and a need for protection 16% of the self- employed are financially dependent on one client 13
  14. 14. Labour market regulation Policy Directions • Tackle false self-employment & reduce the size of the “grey zone” • Identify groups in the “grey zone” to which certain labour law protection could be extended • Decide which labour law protections to (at least partially) extend, and whether and how they should be adapted • Where necessary, clarify and/or assign employer duties and responsibilities 14
  15. 15. Has the balance of power tipped too far? Many workers have weak bargaining power 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 Canada United Kingdom Germany United States France % • Power imbalances are inherent to the employment relationship • Many workers have few alternative employment options • Trade union density has declined • Many workers in the “grey zone” between dependent and self-employment have little scope to bargain collectively Non-standard workers are 50% less likely to be unionised than standard employees 15
  16. 16. Power imbalances Policy Directions • Address labour market monopsony through better regulations and more effective enforcement • Put in place a comprehensive strategy to tackle barriers to potential job mobility in the labour market • Consider extending access to collectively bargaining to all workers that are in the same situation of power imbalance as employees ➢ Labour law routes avoid threats to effectiveness of antitrust law 16
  17. 17. Social Dialogue Further Policy Directions • Accompany the efforts of unions and employers organisations to expand their membership without discouraging the emergence of other forms of organisation • Leave scope for collective bargaining and incentivise self- regulation among actors by making a limited but strategic use of legislative interventions • Promote national consultations and discussions on the future of work 17
  18. 18. A transition agenda for a future that works for all The future of work is not set in stone – with the right policies and institutions, it can be more inclusive and rewarding Action at the margin will not do Life course approach Adequate funding Effectiveness Improve revenue sources Whole-of-government Target those who need it most Spending review 18
  19. 19. Thank you Twitter: @AndreaBassanini 19 OECD Employment Outlook 2019:
  20. 20. Latvian firms lag behind in the use of digital technologies Share of enterprises using specific digital technologies, percentage of enterprises, 2017 Note: Data cover 26 OECD countries and correspond to the share of businesses with ten or more employees with broadband connection (fixed or mobile); with a website or home page; using social media; using Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software; using Customer Relationships Management (CRM) software; purchasing cloud computing services; receiving orders over computer networks; sharing electronically SCM information with suppliers and customers; using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology; and having performed big data analysis (2018 data) Source: OECD ICT Access and Usage by Businesses Database and Eurostat 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Broadband Website Social media ERP CRM Cloud Computing e-sales SCM Big data RFID %% OECD median OECD maximum OECD minimum Latvia